GSA Annual Meeting Presentation: Could Estimates of the Rate of Future Sea-Level Rise Be Too Low?
Boulder, Colorado, USA – Sea levels are rising faster than expected from global warming, and University of Colorado geologist Bill Hay has a good idea why. The last official IPCC report in 2007 projected a global sea level rise between 0.2 and 0.5 meters by the year 2100. But current sea-level rise measurements meet or exceed the high end of that range and suggest a rise of one meter or more by the end of the century.
“What’s missing from the models used to forecast sea-level rise are critical feedbacks that speed everything up,” says Hay. He will be presenting some of these feedbacks in a talk on Sunday, 4 Nov., at the meeting of The Geological Society of America in Charlotte, North Carolina, USA.
One of those feedbacks involves Arctic sea ice, another the Greenland ice cap, and another soil moisture and groundwater mining.
“There is an Arctic sea ice connection,” says Hay, despite the fact that melting sea ice — which is already in the ocean — does not itself raise sea level. Instead, it plays a role in the overall warming of the Arctic, which leads to ice losses in nearby Greenland and northern Canada. When sea ice melts, Hay explains, there is an oceanographic effect of releasing more fresh water from the Arctic, which is then replaced by inflows of brinier, warmer water from the south.
“So it’s a big heat pump that brings heat to the Arctic,” says Hay. “That’s not in any of the models.” That warmer water pushes the Arctic toward more ice-free waters, which absorb sunlight rather than reflect it back into space like sea ice does. The more open water there is, the more heat is trapped in the Arctic waters, and the warmer things can get.
Then there are those gigantic stores of ice in Greenland and Antarctica. During the last interglacial period, sea level rose 10 meters due to the melting of all that ice — without any help from humans. New data suggests that the sea-level rise in the oceans took place over a few centuries, according to Hay.
“You can lose most of the Greenland ice cap in a few hundred years, not thousands, just under natural conditions,” says Hay. “There’s no telling how fast it can go with this spike of carbon dioxide we are adding to the atmosphere.”
This possibility was brought home this last summer as Greenland underwent a stunning, record-setting melt. The ice streams, lubricated by water at their base, are speeding up.
Hay notes, “Ten years ago we didn’t know much about water under the Antarctic ice cap.” But it is there, and it allows the ice to move — in some places even uphill due to the weight of the ice above it.
“It’s being squeezed like toothpaste out of a tube,” explains Hay. The one thing that’s holding all that ice back from emptying into the sea is the grounded ice shelves acting like plugs on bottles at the ends of the coastal glaciers. “Nobody has any idea how fast that ice will flow into the oceans once the ice shelves are gone.”
Another missing feedback is the groundwater being mined all over the world to mitigate droughts. That water is ultimately added to the oceans (a recent visualization of this effect in the U.S. was posted by NASA’s Earth Observatory: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79228).
All of these are positive feedbacks speeding up the changes in climate and sea-level rise.
“You would expect negative feedbacks to creep in at some point,” says Hay. “But in climate change, every feedback seems to go positive.” The reason is that Earth’s climate seems to have certain stable states. Between those states things are unstable and can change quickly. “Under human prodding, the system wants to go into a new climate state.”
WHAT: Could Estimates of the Rate of Future Sea-Level Rise Be Too Low?
WHEN: Sunday, 4-November, 9:15–9:30 a.m.
WHERE: Charlotte Convention Center, Room 219AB
ABSTRACT: https://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2012AM/finalprogram/abstract_209198.htm
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Dr. Hay may find this upcoming NASA JPL project problematic with his claims:
Finally: JPL intends to get a GRASP on accurate sea level and ice measurements
Oh Dear.
Many years ago I as a new member of the AGU I attended the Spring Convention in [at that time] Baltimore Maryland, and a few others from then I might add. At this particular convention in 1990 I was impressed by the range of presentations given; even if the presentation was utterly and unfortunately beyond doubt … nonsense. I … at that time considered this testimony to the AGU for allowing all views … however utterly wrong, nonsense, and embarrassing. Unfortunately the presenter had not yet come to that simple conclusion based on facts, for reasons that I cannot fathom yet to this day.
Twenty years hence.
Seems that the ‘utterly and embarrassingly nonsense’ is the sense and the ‘science de jour’ of the AGU nowadays. What a ROYAL embarrassment! With the fallout from Gellick and ‘the Anthropocene Mann’ and many new ones on the event horizon, I truly wonder why … I … am a paying member to such a Circus Of The Absurd as the AGU has become and its now payed Executive Committee … cannot fathom … irregardless of their … presumed … superior parentage!
How unfortunate, for the … superiors … of the … AGU.
Perhaps a graph showing the currently measured sea level vs. this 5mm per year nonsense would help clarify things
The NASA JPL project is funded by the Koch brothers for the express purpose of manufacturing doubt and confusing the public about Hay’s and others’ 99% consensus on catastrophic rising sea levels
John Pickens:
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/current/sl_ns_global.png
How much sea level rise is due to soil washed into the oceans from rivers (e.g., the Mississippi, Nile, Congo, Amazon, etc) and to erosion of coasts by waves? How much of the dust that is blown out of deserts ends up in the oceans?
I just tested this – I poured ice water into boiling water and it quit boiling. It refused to boil again until I re-applied the heat. The big takeaway for me was adding ice water to warmer water does not warm the water, it cools it. I’m going to need some grant money to get this into a proper format for submission to Nature.
For those of you who are wondering where Hay got his figures: he made them up. This is no joke. Hay is a notorious fabricator and has grafted his practices onto the U of Colo. It will take his students years to unlearn what they are taught there and many never will.
“You would expect negative feedbacks to creep in at some point,” says Hay. “But in climate change, every feedback seems to go positive.”
::facepalm:: Yeah. Right. Obviously he drank the Klimate Kool-Aid.
Ok, a tide gage history from San Francisco is good, (thx Dave Burton).
Given the news, however this 150 year record from The Battery, New York City, (at 11 inches per century) seems more to the point.
John Brookes says:
November 1, 2012 at 7:41 pm
“…so while the models will get the broad brush stuff right…”
John, please detail which ‘broad brush stuff’ the models have ever got right – in terms of predictions of the future rather than the past.
Here are some clues as to why I ask:
“Profound” climate variability engine found – leakage around the Cape of Good Hope “could mean that current IPCC model predictions for the next century are wrong” http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/27/climate-variability-leakage-around-the-cape-of-good-hope/
North American snow models miss the mark – observed trend opposite of the predictions http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/19/north-america-snow-models-miss-the-mark/
Climate Models Fail at Antarctic Warming Predictions http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/05/07/climate-models-fail-at-antarctic-warming-predictions/
Climate Models shown to be inaccurate less than 30 years out http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/18/climate-models-shown-to-be-inaccurate-less-than-30-years-out/
“Boy, they are sure amping up the alarm since Frankenstorm.”
Seems all steams recently from a lot of the bull – – – – from Bronco Brama.
(h/t for the perfect coined name from a cute little four year old girl, in complete tears, who is really, really fed up with all of the politics)
I have to say, me too. Just 5 to go.
5mm per year every year… dream on.
“What’s missing from the models used to forecast sea-level rise are critical feedbacks that speed everything up,” says Hay.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The models are wrong? Isn’t there a standard of conduct already established regarding publication of such assertions? I believe the standard requires that whoever allowed Hay to speak must now resign and apologise to Trenberth.
Do we model with any confidence “Cloud formation”
ENSO
Any atmospheric oscillation
Any interactive ocean current
Any sea ice level and their impact on precipitation
Albedo and black carbon
And on and on and on………..
In a cumulative manner?
My point is?
I still await an explanation for the two strong thermal pulses right at the end-Eemian:
Boettger, et al (Quaternary International 207 [2009] 137–144) abstract it:
“In terrestrial records from Central and Eastern Europe the end of the Last Interglacial seems to be characterized by evident climatic and environmental instabilities recorded by geochemical and vegetation indicators. The transition (MIS 5e/5d) from the Last Interglacial (Eemian, Mikulino) to the Early Last Glacial (Early Weichselian, Early Valdai) is marked by at least two warming events as observed in geochemical data on the lake sediment profiles of Central (Gro¨bern, Neumark–Nord, Klinge) and of Eastern Europe (Ples). Results of palynological studies of all these sequences indicate simultaneously a strong increase of environmental oscillations during the very end of the Last Interglacial and the beginning of the Last Glaciation. This paper discusses possible correlations of these events between regions in Central and Eastern Europe. The pronounced climate and environment instability during the interglacial/glacial transition could be consistent with the assumption that it is about a natural phenomenon, characteristic for transitional stages. Taking into consideration that currently observed ‘‘human-induced’’ global warming coincides with the natural trend to cooling, the study of such transitional stages is important for understanding the underlying processes of the climate changes.”
Hearty and Neumann (Quaternary Science Reviews 20 [2001] 1881–1895) abstracting their work in the Bahamas state:
“The geology of the Last Interglaciation (sensu stricto, marine isotope substage MIS 5e) in the Bahamas records the nature of sea level and climate change. After a period of quasi-stability for most of the interglaciation, during which reefs grew to +2.5 m, sea level rose rapidly at the end of the period, incising notches in older limestone. After brief stillstands at +6 and perhaps +8.5 m, sea level fell with apparent speed to the MIS 5d lowstand and much cooler climatic conditions. It was during this regression from the MIS 5e highstand that the North Atlantic suffered an oceanographic ‘‘reorganization’’ about 11873 ka ago. During this same interval, massive dune-building greatly enlarged the Bahama Islands. Giant waves reshaped exposed lowlands into chevron-shaped beach ridges, ran up on older coastal ridges, and also broke off and threw megaboulders onto and over 20 m-high cliffs. The oolitic rocks recording these features yield concordant whole-rock amino acid ratios across the archipelago. Whether or not the Last Interglaciation serves as an appropriate analog for our ‘‘greenhouse’’ world, it nonetheless reveals the intricate details of climatic transitions between warm interglaciations and near glacial conditions.”
It is all detailed here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/16/the-end-holocene-or-how-to-make-out-like-a-madoff-climate-change-insurer/
Scared? You’ve got to be kidding me. I’ll take your AR4 worst case scenario of 0.59M and raise you the low-end of sea level excursion and raise you +6M, perhaps +8.5M! Keep in mind I have a +21.3M pile of interglacial chips sitting in front of me at MIS-11. The Gorical has only bet 20 feet, the low-end of MIS-5e anthropogenically ascertained end extreme interglacial noise http://www.uow.edu.au/business/content/groups/public/@web/@sci/@eesc/documents/doc/uow045009.pdf
See Figure 2, Chart K to value your MIS-5e +42M bluff. This is Climate Poker afterall, isn’t it? OK,I’ll see your Gored +6M (+20Feet), and raise you 42 – 6=36M.
Just For Good Measure
And call…………
No. The seas are receding because of Global Cooling.
The only way Hurricane Sandy was Human Induced Climate Change, was by the Geo Engineering operations being done by humans working for the US Government.
The Climate Changers and Progressers can go pound Sandy, We have Global Cooling now due to the extended Solar Minimum.
NASA June 2012 Solar Cycle 24 Prediction
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/08/nasa-june-2012-solar-cycle-24-prediction/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/13/when-will-it-start-cooling/
sunshinehours1 says:
November 1, 2012 at 6:00 pm
1 meter = 1000mm = 10mm a year
It is 1000/88years which is 11.4mm per year. Even further away. Soon the whole premise will be tossed out the window.
Essentially all ice sheets would have to loose some 3800 cubic kilometers of ice per year to ge to the 1 meter in a century. Not going to happen. Even if some of it is caused by an warming and expanding ocean.
Sounds like freak science and a perfect match for Rahmstorf.
Here’s that adorable little girl:
We had a hurricane storm surge making land fall, enhanced by a full moon at high tide at the same time of occurrence. It’s really that simple folks.
Whenever I’ve sat on a beach when the sun is low in the sky, there seems to be a great deal of reflection even when the water is not smooth. I seem to recall reading somewhere that the albedo under these conditions is not much different to old snow or sea ice.
“During the last interglacial period, sea level rose 10 meters due to the melting of all that ice“.
10m! Wow! Let’s see what the IPCC report says about this interglacial period. ….. aha! Here it is in FAQ 5.1 …..
Global sea level rose by about 120 m during the several millennia that followed the end of the last ice age (approximately 21,000 years ago).
That last interglacial was stunningly weak. Or maybe this guy is clueless.
michaelwiseguy says:
November 1, 2012 at 9:25 pm
We had a hurricane storm surge making land fall, enhanced by a full moon at high tide at the same time of occurrence. It’s really that simple folks.
“After brief stillstands at +6 and perhaps +8.5 m, sea level fell with apparent speed to the MIS 5d lowstand and much cooler climatic conditions. It was during this regression from the MIS 5e highstand that the North Atlantic suffered an oceanographic ‘‘reorganization’’ about 11873 ka ago. During this same interval, massive dune-building greatly enlarged the Bahama Islands. Giant waves reshaped exposed lowlands into chevron-shaped beach ridges, ran up on older coastal ridges, and also broke off and threw megaboulders onto and over 20 m-high cliffs.”
Now that is just downright scary~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This is the third class intellect that unilaterally tried to ‘decide’ nobody but ‘certain citizens’ “HAD a PLACE in the DIALOG” about what happens to our money.
And our world as the libtard moon-barking-mad non-intelligencia tried to rewrite LITERALLY
the l.a.w.s. of physics
to get control over taxing the air
you
breathe.
Brinier water from the south wouldn’t replace fresh surface water; it would sink, leaving the lighter water on the surface.
Epic fail in their logic.
To talk of many things:
Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
Of cabbages— and kings—
And why the sea is boiling hot—
And whether pigs have wings.