Study: Fraud growing in scientific research papers
WASHINGTON (AP) — Fraud in scientific research, while still rare, is growing at a troubling pace, a new study finds.
A review of retractions in medical and biological peer-reviewed journals finds the percentage of studies withdrawn because of fraud or suspected fraud has jumped substantially since the mid-1970s. In 1976, there were fewer than 10 fraud retractions for every 1 million studies published, compared with 96 retractions per million in 2007.
The study authors aren’t quite sure why this is happening. But they and outside experts point to pressure to hit it big in science, both for funding and attention, and to what seems to be a subtle increase in deception in overall society that science may simply be mirroring.
Note the bold. I was lambasted for saying essentially the same thing on PBS Newshour.
I wonder if Stephan Lewandowsky’s “moon landing denier conspiracy theory” paper will find itself in the fraud category now that Steve McIntyre has exposed the statistically shoddy sleight of hand:
McIntyre on Lewandowsky’s Fake Correlation
Steve McIntyre takes Lewandowsky’s statistical screed to task and writes:
Lewandowsky’s most recent blog post really makes one wonder about the qualifications at the University of West Anglia Western Australia.
Lewandowsky commenced his post as follows:
The science of statistics is all about differentiating signal from noise. This exercise is far from trivial: Although there is enough computing power in today’s laptops to churn out very sophisticated analyses, it is easily overlooked that data analysis is also a cognitive activity.
Numerical skills alone are often insufficient to understand a data set—indeed, number-crunching ability that’s unaccompanied by informed judgment can often do more harm than good.
This fact frequently becomes apparent in the climate arena, where the ability to use pivot tables in Excel or to do a simple linear regressions is often over-interpreted as deep statistical competence.
I mostly agree with this part of Lewandowsky’s comment, though I would not characterize statistics as merely “differentiating signal from noise”. In respect to his comment about regarding the ability to do a linear regression as deep competence, I presume that he was thinking here of his cousin institute, the University of East Anglia (UEA), where, in a Climategate email, Phil Jones was baffled as to how to calculate a linear trend on his own – with or without Excel. At Phil Jones’ UEA, someone who could carry out a linear regression must have seemed like a deity. Perhaps the situation is similar at Lewandowsky’s UWA. However, this is obviously not the case at Climate Audit, where many readers are accomplished and professional statisticians.
Actually, I’d be inclined to take Lewandowsky’s comment even further – adding that the ability to insert data into canned factor analysis or SEM algorithms (without understanding the mathematics of the underlying programs) is often “over-interpreted as deep statistical competence” – here Lewandowsky should look in the mirror.
Lewandowsky continued:
Two related problems and misconceptions appear to be pervasive: first, blog analysts have failed to differentiate between signal and noise, and second, no one who has toyed with our data has thus far exhibited any knowledge of the crucial notion of a latent construct or latent variable.
In today’s post, I’m going to comment on Lewandowsky’s first claim, while disputing his second claim. (Principal components, a frequent topic at this blog, are a form of latent variable analysis. Factor analysis is somewhat different but related algorithm. Anyone familiar with principal components – as many CA readers are by now – can readily grasp the style of algorithm, though not necessarily sharing Lewandowsky’s apparent reification.)
In respect to “signal vs noise”, Lewandowsky continued:
We use the item in our title, viz. that NASA faked the moon landing, for illustration. Several commentators have argued that the title was misleading because if one only considers level X of climate “skepticism” and level Y of moon endorsement, then there were none or only very few data points in that cell in the Excel spreadsheet.
Perhaps.
But that is drilling into the noise and ignoring the signal.
The signal turns out to be there and it is quite unambiguous: computing a Pearson correlation across all data points between the moon-landing item and HIV denial reveals a correlation of -.25. Likewise, for lung cancer, the correlation is -.23. Both are highly significant at p < .0000…0001 (the exact value is 10 -16, which is another way of saying that the probability of those correlations arising by chance is infinitesimally small).
These paragraphs are about as wrongheaded as anything you’ll ever read.
Read the rest here at Lewandowsky’s Fake Correlation
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Yes, the apparent trend may be exaggerated … but mostly because so much fraud went previously undetected. I suggest reading “Lies, Damned Lies, and Medical Science“, and as many of the source materials it references as you have stomach for.
I really don’t know why scientific fraud occurs. 😉
Is it the money?
Is it the fame?
I have absolutely no idea why scientific fraud and scam artists proliferate.
And we still have no idea why the public is losing trust in the pronouncements of cash,kudos,and agenda driven science..none..really..not one. /Fe
Maybe they learned “publication bias” from Pharma/FDA:
http://www.pharmalot.com/2012/05/a-bill-to-require-clinical-trial-disclosures/
Actually this is probably pretty widespread and the above bill should be broadened to apply across all scientific disciplines and also to federal agencies including NASA/NOAA. To give an example, the FDA/NIH has a policy of refusing to provide funds/support for research where an individual (unassociated with a large Pharma company) wants to profit from ground breaking discovery, where the medical solution is in the public domain, where there may be a major impact on medical infrastructure or where the solution is inexpensive and will not result in large corporate rewards.Two examples follow :
http://www.burzynskimovie.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=49&Itemid=53
http://discovermagazine.com/2011/jul-aug/13-how-pig-guts-became-hope-regenerating-human-limbs
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extracellular_matrix (see bottom @ur momisugly Medical Applications and should state “rarely used”)
At least one Linus Pauling past study was rigged by the NIH:
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/releases/12154.php
Now much of this knowledge has been around for many years and just imagine what could have been or could be if properly funded and researched or if in the case of Extracellular matrix, just put into practice. However no one important, including politicians or the media has enough interest, brains or perhaps moxie to connect the dots, foresee the potential future from properly functioning Federal Agencies that are supposed to exist for public benefit and then do something about it. Nixon’s “Cancer War” may have been within reach decades ago without Pharma influence in government. There is some justice in that many of those in ignorance or complicity eventually wind up in the same sinking boat as the rest of the public.
Money and Religion and Politics
Science used to be a tool. It was a course in late elementary school. It was the area of inquiry that attracted many of our great thinkers. You know many of them, I hope.
Scientific methods and undertakings used to imply disciplined, arduous, and honest vocation for those who pursued them. Those were the days. Then came the likes of Bill Nye the Science guy who, in a misguided effort to introduce the material world to the young in an entertaining way, turned science into a circus.
Science was tweaked to satisfy ratings and Bills ego….. well…monetary interests.
Not that Bill was the only culprit, but he and the other circus clowns like Mann and Jones weren’t satisfied with doing good science, there had to be showmanship, that would have made PT Barnum proud. The showmanship was for money and to satisfy the empty egos, who otherwise would have lived anonymous lives.
Now ad a dash of the Earth Religion, to replace other religions long discarded, and now you have a toxic mix corrosive to the essentials of good science. Propelled by a belief in their Earth-Saving self righteous behavior, seduced by the luster of money, and the intoxicating haze of fame people who may otherwise plod along with their lab work, now proselytize their green beliefs as hypothesis, their grants as substitute for positive test results, and the publications as gilding for their egos rather than critique.
Oh we lost science long ago. Science has deteriorated to a punch line from an atheist or a magical word to engender authority by the utterer… like Abracadabra or Open Sesame.
Imagine science’s father, Roger Bacon, a 13 century monk (Opus Majus) trying to use reason to describe to new emerging field of optics with the limitations of an ecclesiastical vocabulary. Words like lens, opacity, translucent, simply did not exist. Bacon had to use words like orb, grace, and sin as scientific variables.
We’ve come full circle.
Now instead of a 13th century monk struggling to communicate the new concept of science trapped in religious language, we have scientists treating their field like a religion, and using scientific language to advance politics and belief.
What a tragedy.
What an affront to the past 500 years of hard work and dedication. It is destroying one of mankind’s greatest achievements.
This the problem I have with AGW advocasy. It defiles science and diminishes reason to gutter politics. It was inevitable that fraud would poison the vocation of science. Truth is no longer the objective. The objective of science has become money, fame and the Green religion.
When they say that fraud is “still rare”, I guess they mean the kind of crass fraud that depends on misleading experimental design, cooked results and fudged analysis. But I’m afraid that a more subtle form of fraud is now endemic in scientific institutions. When the basic assumptions and definitions of a subject are corrupted, when certain lines of research are subsidized and others are actively discouraged, even honest individual scientists are going to be innocently supporting a fraudulent agenda. The global warming hoax is just one instance.
The charm of the ‘latent variable analysis.’ A bunch of non-mathematician types in the 1970s figured out how to conduct these latent variable models. A mythology sprang up that these models could show you ‘causality.’ I don’t know where this idea came from, but I suspect it relates to the term ‘causal models.’ GIGO.
A factor analysis will give you factors.
Everything in a factor analysis is in terms relative to the rest of the data in the data set. One factor will be the strongest, one will be the next strongest, and so on. This has nothing to do with how obvious or powerful any of the zero-order relations are. You can run any weakly measured garbage and conclude, ‘a three-factor model’ as if you had discovered the skeleton underliying whatever concept you wanted to vault to legitimacy – anti-science denialism syndrome, etc.
I had thought the phase of fashionable over-use of factor analyses and SEMs had come and gone, but maybe I am wrong.
The actual fraud rate is easily many thousands per million, so the figure of 10 versus 96 retractions per million is in itself meaningless. Without more data, going from 10 to 96 retractions per million may or may not correspond to any more fraud at all (not talking about climatology — which went drastically downhill when actual scientists were replaced by environmentalist activists — but talking about other fields such as medical research).
In the hotbed of fraud and dishonesty, climatology, basically nobody ever retracts anything. Fraud isn’t surprising. What is surprising is when such is actually admitted and retracted.
A large number of papers in climatology are dishonest ludicrous BS, but just cloaking in formal language and having an academic writing style suffices to get dumb people to worship and auto-trust them Random examples include the paper recently mentioned here claiming the Roman Warm Period was due to human emissions at the time (not even remotely the right order of magnitude), the paper Svalgaard pushes about pretending solar variation has nil effect by resorting to claiming coincidence after coincidence after coincidence with volcanoes of mismatched magnitudes and timing in transparent bias, the 97.4% consensus paper with its 2 trick questions (if temperatures rose since the LIA and if UHI or any other effect of humans exists), and just about anything by Mann or Hansen among others.
Scientific fraud? Unbelievable. Don’t they know about Peer Review?
I’m hoping there’s lots of scientific fraud.
http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2012/10/05/im-looking-for-a-snitch-who-wants-to-get-rich/
Pointman
Scientific fraud is generally not faking data or making up an experiment, it is tweaking the model so that it shows what you want, it is changes at the fringes. It is an editor being nicer to a paper that agrees with his worldview. This is still the best paper on the topic: http://www.bmartin.cc/pubs/92prom.html
I’d like to know all those statistics presented by the EPA regarding air quality have been vetted to insure they aren’t lying through their teeth.