The Autumnal Equinox has just occurred, at 2:40PM UTC (7:49AM PDT) marking the end of summer. Despite our Jay Zwally countdown to the end of summer reaching zero on the sidebar, the Arctic sea ice is still there and gaining fast.
That’s one more alarmist prediction that did not come true, even though we had a new record low on Arctic extent, while simultaneously setting new record highs in the Antarctic.
I’m going to take a few days off to be with family and practice some target and skeet shooting, one of my hobbies. After this week, I think I’ve earned it.
Moderators will check in periodically. Thanks everyone for your consideration. This might be a good time to think about inviting a friend to visit WUWT. – Anthony
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Steve C says: “Anthony – Take as long as you like. You’ve darn well earned it, and your mods will keep us in order.”
I keep getting this mind-image of the mods walking around with mirrored sunglasses, a shotgun in their hands, a police baton hanging from their belt, saying “What we have here is a failure to communicate”.
David Ball says: “How do you prepare “skeet”?”
Well, it is a little dry . . .
[Make that, “What we have here is a failure to spell rite ..”]
I’ve been thinking about the sea ice situation in the Arctic and wondering if the storm in August might lead to ice gains in the future. Here’s the logic.
While the storm broke up the ice leading to a lower extent this year, it also piled up ice into thicker, smaller extents. As the new ice forms this winter those thicker sections will act like multi-year ice. In effect they act like re-enforced concrete for the ice. It will be more difficult for the wind to move the ice around because it will be heavier and there will be more drag. It might even enhance the freezing process this winter.
By the time next year’s melt comes around the ice will be more resistant to being shipped into warmer waters. Over the next few years this could lead to a quickly growing polar ice cap.
Thoughts?
A while back David Archibald notice one of my plots and took off to do some more stuff. Before he gets to involved I wanted him to look at the relationship between SST and deep ocean temperature on a 100K year time frame. The mixing of the ocean temperatures does take a while and tends to make correlations with Solar etc. a touch hard to interpret.
http://redneckphysics.blogspot.com/2012/09/websters-follies.html
So I thought he might be interested it that before he wanders too far down the cyclomania path.
There’s another scandal at Wikipedia. Some top-editors in the UK were caught writing copy and favorable making edits for pay.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57514677-93/corruption-in-wikiland-paid-pr-scandal-erupts-at-wikipedia/
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57518384-93/wikipedia-honcho-caught-in-scandal-quits-defends-paid-edits/?part=rss&subj=news&tag=title
— Skeptical Science contributor writing in Secret Forum
Hengist says: September 23, 2012 at 2:58 am
How much do you get from the Heartland Institute and any other sponsors ?
*****
Hengist,
I don’t recall seeing your handle here before, but then I don’t “live” on this web site. Forgive me if you have posted before and I haven’t noticed.
Welcome to the fire! Sit a spell and have a cup of coffee. (Texas speak for a warm welcome.)
An interesting place here with all kinds of opinions and noted scientists rendering their learned opinions. Even a Simple Red Neck like me is welcome! All opinions are welcomed within reason; a refreshing concept and part of why I like the web site and the people who frequent it.
A suggestion though. The Left in general and Warming Alarmists in particular have become so irrational that a Reasonable Man can no longer determine if what is being presented is supposed to be fact or is sarcasm and irony. It has become tradition here to follow said sarcasm and irony with “/sarc” or similar to let people know that you are really making a joke.
Regards,
Steamboat Jack (Jon Jewett’s evil twin)
Hengist says:
September 23, 2012 at 2:58 am
Hengist is or was a regular over at Bishop Hill where he/she was/is a lightweight of the warmist persuasion. He/she already knows the “ropes” and is just delivering a “drive by” gratuitous poke at Anthony. Best advice is to just ignore Hengist.
Mossberg 500 Persuader 50521 … 5 + 1 … 00, Sabot mix 🙂
With no polar ice where are those poor polar bears going to land by 2040? How many met their demise through 2012 record (relative) low sea ice? Best to relocate to them to Washington D.C.? Plenty of food…
Fortunately, by 2040, Greenland will be green again, just what the greenies should be praying for and Siberia will be the grain belt of Asia and the shores of Antarctica will be lined with resort condos, and the green gets greener with all that CO2 we so irresponsibly belching…and the greeners will find a new horse to ride….golf carts making their way through the plethora links to be conquered on the shores of northern Canadian lakes.
Ahhh…the warmth cometh…
Looks like Nadine is back as a tropical storm heading West at 2 mph. Other than that, Atlantic is quiet. Only one hurricane landfall this year in the US. Been awful good on that front since the 2005 season. Warmists must be upset about this inconvenient factoid.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/08/ff_apocalypsenot
My dear Jack, just a Marlin 60 semiauto .22 longrifle, with 38 and 40 grain cartridges. And I most certainly did get several bullets that far, and 4 hits at 500. By the way, my shooter’s handle is Strawberry Shortcake. I’ll change it one of these days to Penelope Oakley when I can shoot the .22 course clean, 40 rounds, 40 hits, 10 each at 50, 100, 200, and 300 yds. My best score was 37 (missed one at 100 and 2 at 200), my worst score I think was 30 (with a new scope I had just sighted in that morning). All recorded in the competition shoot reports at the range.
This summer I was able to get my Henry’s Golden Boy .38 rifle hitting the 300 yd target. And am getting REAL close to hitting that same target with my .38 single action revolver.
In the New Scientist ,wash your hands afterwards.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17742-worlds-climate-could-cool-first-warm-later.html?full=true&print=true
CEH says:
September 23, 2012 at 6:36 am
“Has anyone checked this out?; ”
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/09/15/ed-caryl-modtran-shows-co2-doubling-will-have-almost-no-effect-on-temperature/
Yes, and there was a very, very inconvenient question there;
“My question is: Why have the professional “Climatologists” not done the simple work that I did on a lazy Saturday afternoon with my laptop? They must know that water vapor nearly wipes out CO2 in warming the earth, and that cloud and albedo changes do the rest. What’s their excuse for this massive “oversight”? ”
Would you cut off the branch you are sitting on?
For the bow aficionados: check out the API Innovations Python X. For the bush, I have an old Astro-Archer 65 lb. Super simple and extremely rugged. Old reliable.
Many are unaware that the actress Gina Davis is a top ranked archer.
I am not a “survivalist”, but I believe in being prepared. Global warming destroying society? No. One Carrington event or even a minor impact and most would not be able to feed themselves.
If you have gone camping in winter, you will understand how good an insulator snow can be.
Anthony, I am hoping you were able to shake off the events of the past week or so and re-invigorate.
Janice says:
September 23, 2012 at 7:01 am
“Skeet” would make the dentist happy (especially if he had boat payments to make).
Not only social media are producing sociopaths. Clearly, some alarmist bloggers are already over the edge:
http://www.kernelmag.com/yiannopoulos/3359/the-internet-is-turning-us-all-into-sociopaths/
Has anyone been watching Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm/Subtropical Storm/Hurricane Nadine in the Eastern Atlantic? Every day the 5-Day Forecast Cone is radically different. Yesterday they said it was going East, today they say it’s going West.
Richard M:
After the prior low in 2007, minimum ice grew in 2008 & 2009, then fell in 2010, & again last year & this, as you know.
The 2010 low occurred on September 19, at 4.60 million square kilometers (1.78 million square miles), according to NSIDC, or 470,000 square kilometers (181,000 square miles) above the prior record minimum in 2007, and 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles) below 2009.
But you could well be right about piled up ice this year & next, as in 2007 there was no event comparable to the August 5 Alaskan cyclone in 2012.
Go Home says:
September 23, 2012 at 8:41 am
Have no fear, the fact that Nadine is regenerating and about to do another lap around the Sargasso Sea will give them plenty of fodder. Something along the lines of “Longest Lived Storm….EVAH!!! (or since satellites were lauched…or since the Weather Channel was launched…or…something).”
Just a question for the mods. Are my posts flagged for some reason? They seem to take longer than others posts to pass moderation. Not worried about it, just asking.
[Reply: No. — mod.]
This may seem obvious to some, but never go into the bush with only your bow. Just an FYI for any noob thinking of heading to the wilderness.
Always bring a firearm and a good quality knife. Be prepared.
banjo says:
September 23, 2012 at 9:38 am
In the New Scientist ,wash your hands afterwards.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17742-worlds-climate-could-cool-first-warm-later.html?full=true&print=true
=======================================================
Spring and Fall seem to be “Make a Prediction Seasons”. Contradictory preditions are made about what will happen because of Man then, at the end of Winter or Summer, the one that seems to match best what happened is the one that gets the press.
[Reply: No. — mod.]
Thank you moderators, for everything you do.
Has anyone put together the lists of scientists who are skeptics. I have seen the Oregon list and reference to several others. There may be enough in total to kill the 97% garbage. Any references?
banjo says:
September 23, 2012 at 9:38 am
In the New Scientist ,wash your hands afterwards.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17742-worlds-climate-could-cool-first-warm-later.html?full=true&print=true
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Not sure why I need to wash my hands? The article focuses on admissions by climate scientists that the models are highly innacurate tools to use for time periods as short as several decades, that this year’s ice loss in the arctic is natural, that droughts in the Sahel are natural and more related to the NAO than anything else, and that we’re probably in for a couple of decades of cooling.
I found the prediction of a couple of decades of cooling coupled with the admission that on time scales of a couple of decades the models are useless rather amusing. So what are they predicating the prediction on then? Assuming the models are wrong and predicting the opposite? LOL