The Autumnal Equinox has just occurred, at 2:40PM UTC (7:49AM PDT) marking the end of summer. Despite our Jay Zwally countdown to the end of summer reaching zero on the sidebar, the Arctic sea ice is still there and gaining fast.
That’s one more alarmist prediction that did not come true, even though we had a new record low on Arctic extent, while simultaneously setting new record highs in the Antarctic.
I’m going to take a few days off to be with family and practice some target and skeet shooting, one of my hobbies. After this week, I think I’ve earned it.
Moderators will check in periodically. Thanks everyone for your consideration. This might be a good time to think about inviting a friend to visit WUWT. – Anthony
From Sundance on September 22, 2012 at 9:13 am:
I just checked the movie’s Facebook page.
That movie is still in theaters!
Either show evidence the copyright owners have released it for free internet distribution,
or Stop using WUWT to promote the violating of the rights of the copyright owners!
Stephen Rasey says:
September 22, 2012 at 9:28 am
That’s not really the source, that’s a copy I pull down so there’s a static URL to have in the Sea Ice reference page. I’d have to look at the code to remember where I get it from, but a near match is http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
“””””…..David Ball says:
September 22, 2012 at 8:22 am
How do you prepare “skeet”? Kidding. Both family and skeet shooting will be rewarding and cathartic. Enjoy……”””””
Well David, my favorite recipe for skeet is the same one I use for snipe. And speaking of snipe, it is not cool to snipe at Californian’s skeet prowess; remember we have the Olympic champion here in the Bay Area; and she is very damn good at it.
NetDr that link doesn’t work for me, could you possibly provide instructions on what you did on the GISS site. I couldn’t see any way to see an anomaly for California. Thanks!
Collins probably does know he’s talking about a prediction, but is just lying.
Maybe that’s harsh. It could be that he’s plain stupid,
Anthony – Take as long as you like. You’ve darn well earned it, and your mods will keep us in order.
Pamela – I reckon you’re fine as you are: my New Shorter Oxford gives the primary meaning of “fellow” as:
“A person who shares with another in anything; a partner, a colleague, an ally.”
Oddly, they give it as ‘rare’, though the meaning goes back to late Old English.
Pamela Gray says:
September 22, 2012 at 9:37 am
I didn’t know that. The only thing that seems plausible is that the majority of the noise comes from the expanding gas around the muzzle and the area 180° away from there has the least chance (and least “view”) of the shock wave.
Thanks HaroldW, the trend seems to be a long way from 4-5 degrees.
I think I need to ask PBS Newshour again if they fact checked Dr Collins, at least report that they need to correct an inaccuracy in their program.
The Autumn Equinox doesn’t mark the end of summer. Not traditionally anyway. I find this new fad for pretending that everyone has the seasons at the same time, and that they are marked by the equinoxes and solstices quite annoying.
Don’t worry, they will just update their predictions. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/20/when-will-the-arctic-be-ice-free-maybe-four-years-or-40/
Jo Nova’s twitter account says:
Snow already? Duluth gets light dusting overnight…
Associated Press
Updated: September 22, 2012 – 12:19 PM
DULUTH, Minn. – Duluth residents have already gotten their first dusting of snow of the season. It’s the area’s earliest measurable snowfall in 17 years.
Light rain briefly turned to light snow at the Duluth airport Friday night. The National Weather Service recorded 0.1 inches of snow for the day, while weather spotters in Alborn and near Canyon reported 0.3 inches overnight.
A Duluth News Tribune report ( http://bit.ly/RJss7z) says the snow didn’t last long, Ground temperatures are still warm, and air temperatures were back above 40 by early Saturday morning.
The last time the area got snow this early in the year was in 1995. The average date by which Duluth gets its first measurable snow is Oct. 24.
tallbloke says:
September 22, 2012 at 10:14 am
Collins probably does know he’s talking about a prediction, but is just lying.
Maybe that’s harsh. It could be that he’s plain stupid,
Is he after my title?
Moderators,
I don’t think you’re supposed to have Obama 2016 movie up there because it’s still in the movie theater.
[Reply: The link has been deleted. — mod.]
On an environmental tangent, I recommend this book:
The Locavore’s Dilemma: In Praise of the 10,000-mile Diet by
Pierre Desrochers and Hiroko Shimizu.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Locavores-Dilemma-Praise-000-mile/dp/1586489402/
This book is a response to The Omnivore’s Dilemma by Michael Pollan. They take many of that book’s claims and demolish them, to the point of overkill. This book is not light reading, but it’s worth it to see the real economist’s view of buzz phrases like sustainability, self-sufficiency, “small is beautiful”, etc.
Does anyone have an idea what this may be about?
http://junkscience.com/2012/09/22/biggest-announcement-in-junkscience-com-history-coming-on-monday/
Pamela Gray says:
September 22, 2012 at 9:37 am
While aiming, the left ear is directed towards the muzzle, the source of the report.
Upper West Side Democrats set up shop 2000 feet from the NYC thermometer station which shows no trend change in 192 years:
http://www.westsiderag.com/2012/09/21/obama-supporters-opening-upper-west-side-headquarters
Anthony ,
Do you shoot all four guages ? Many years ago , I entertained the thought of shooting competitively until I started shooting with a couple of AA shooters who showed me that I was entirely out of my league – probably would never make it past C class . Have fun .
Re: Pamela Grey and Ric Werme: For right handed rifle shooters, the left ear is the ear that receives the greater noise impact, not the ear next to the gun.
My educated guess is that when you put your right eye on the sights, you are slightly looking across your nose, turning your head slightly right, blocking the right ear with your head and turning your left ear a few degrees toward the muzzel.
David Ball says on September 22, 2012 at 8:22 am:
—— —- –. Both family and skeet shooting will be rewarding and cathartic. Enjoy
==================
Are you completely a one person family by now David?
‘Tis the season,
“A little maple began it, flaming blood-red of a sudden where he stood against the dark green of a pine-belt. Next morning there was an answering signal from the swamp where the sumacs grow. Three days later, the hill-sides as fast as the eye could range were afire, and the roads paved, with crimson and gold. Then a wet wind blew, and ruined all the uniforms of that gorgeous army; and the oaks, who had held themselves in reserve, buckled on their dull and bronzed cuirasses and stood it out stiffly to the last blown leaf, till nothing remained but pencil-shadings of bare boughs, and one could see into the most private heart of the woods.”
Rudyard Kipling
This is controversial, highly speculative, possible coincidence, so if any of this is not ‘your cup of tee’ then stop reading here and go to the next person’s comment.
I keep telling myself ‘don’t believe in coincidences, there must be reason for what we observe’.
Some time ago I plotted this graph of various spectral responses:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GSOa.htm
What is unusual here is the spectrum of the ‘Solar Magnetic Cycle’, which is derived from sunspot cycle (odd cycles negative polarity, even cycles positive polarity).
There is the obvious peak at just under 22 years as expected, and again as expected 11 year peak has disappeared.
Problem is the second strongest peak around 18.5 years. Some will recognize this as a luni-solar cycle, very prominent and important in the sea and ocean tides (induces an extra variability of about 7%).
Since moon can not affect sunspot count, question is what is going on here. There is only one possible explanation (excluding sunspot observers mental capacity, being affected by lunar phases) which I put as following:
Sunspot count is affected by the size of a sunspot (larger spots are given higher weighting).
If luni-solar cycles cause hydrosphere tidal distortions it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect same effect on the atmosphere, this could cause kind of ‘lensing’ effect combined with the observing telescope optics resulting in all sunspots appearing a bit larger then normal, enhancing the sunspot count.
This may be totally irrelevant to solar max-min numbers, but may not be irrelevant to the climatic events if the Earth’s atmosphere is pulsating to the tune with 18.5 year period to an extent of 7% of its density. This would not be observed in the atmospheric pressure measurements since column of the air at the ‘high tide’ would increase its height but reduce its density, unlike water which is not ‘stretchable’ .
Toto says:
September 22, 2012 at 11:24 am
“This book is a response to The Omnivore’s Dilemma by Michael Pollan. They take many of that book’s claims and demolish them, to the point of overkill. This book is not light reading, but it’s worth it to see the real economist’s view of buzz phrases like sustainability, self-sufficiency, “small is beautiful”, etc.”
The Locavore and even more extreme, “loca-consumer” idea (consuming only goods produced in your area) is making the rounds in Germany and I shred it to pieces on economic grounds every time a coworker brings it up. If moving stuff would be expensive, we’d pay more for goods that have been moved… and if somebody has a problem with transportation maybe he should better start by stopping me from hurling a ton of metal 50 km back and forth across the highway every workday before even considering stopping trade.
It’s stupid to such a degree that even the promoters of the idea MUST know this. Well maybe not, but in that case numbers must be a foreign concept to them.
wow 3.4 million I don’t remember predicting that it would go that LOW. 2020 Looks like a good estimate to me for the first year of a summer with no sea ice in the Arctic. Good thing that the US NAvy is planning ahead, we used to be able to hide our boomers under that ice