Fortunately, the Internet has a memory. Here’s some excerpts from the story by Damian Carrington. After reading it, I can see why they disappeared it.
The planet’s last great global ice melt left a benign and balmy climate in which civilisation was cradled: the new great melting heralds a grave threat to civilisation
Our planet is waving the white flag of surrender. But as the polar flag becomes ever more tattered, with holes scorched by hotter ocean waters, humanity pumps ever more globe-warming gases into the air.
…
In 2007, a new record was set for the minimum summer sea ice cover in the Arctic had halved. This furious flag waving attracted attention. That year, the world’s scientists declared the end of any doubt that our addiction to burning fossil fuels was changing the face of the planet. Al Gore expounded his inconvenient truth and the world seemed set to act.
Today, that 2007 record is smashed and the shredded white flag is now flickering rathering than flashing. But the danger is greater than even, even if the alarm signal is frayed.
…
Decades from now, will today’s record sea ice low be seen as the moment when our Earthly paradise gave up the ghost and entered a hellish new era? I sincerely hope not, but with this global distress signal failing to attract attention, I fear the worst.
You can read the whole article archived here: http://old-news.co.uk/category/guardian/
h/t to Tom Nelson
BTW there’s still ice at the pole, see it in the WUWT sea ice page
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UPDATE: It was offline earlier. I guess now that we showed the cat was out of the bag they decided to put it back online.
– Anthony
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James Abbott says: September 14, 2012 at 1:26 pm
So little questioning as to why the arctic melt this year has smashed the 2007 minimum – and the melt is continuing.
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It may not be a big Sunspot cycle, but we are nearly at its peak.
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.gif
.
James Abbott says: September 14, 2012 at 2:48 pm
But you are wrong. The ice conditions are a factor, but the melt trend, and this year’s massive melt, is continuing mainly because the arctic is warming.
Your “weather patterns have been screwed up lately” is global warming. The USA has had its hottest recorded year to date and that heat has extended north over Canada and Greenland, accelerating the melt.
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And NW Europe had its coldest and wettest summer ever recorded. So remind me, what does Gloabal warming cause?
Ah, yes, George Orwel told us many decades ago. Global Warming causes a great deal of hot-cold, and even more dry-wet.
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Can someone explain what this ‘story’ is all about because all I can see here is an article written with links to a Guardian piece (which I originally read last night), which an update then says is now still on the Guardian site although it was supposedly not there before. And all the links go to the same article !
When did it disappear ? What is meant by “I can see why they disappeared it” – what can be seen ?
What is meant by “we showed the cat was out of the bag” – what cat, what bag ?
How come I can’t see the story at the oldnews.co.uk link – can someone specifically tell me where it is, please ?
When did Tom Nelson notice it had ‘disappeared’ ?
Generally, what is going on with this story ? It looks like a conspiracy to me, so some enlightenment as to the facts here would be great.
REPLY: Is was up at Guardian. Then disappeared. I verified this before posting, then it reappeared about 30-45 minutes after WUWT posted on it. -Anthony
Caleb says:
September 14, 2012 at 10:11 am
In that case, you’ll love this: Fall is approaching. The NYT has the scoop.
http://twitchy.com/2012/09/14/bombshell-new-york-times-scoop-fall-is-almost-here-news-sparks-nytscoops-hilarity/
You freakin’ homicidal idiots. Aren’t you at least going to try and say SOMETHING about the ice disappearing? Please, say something specific about the ice, rather than hint that you know something we don’t. Why is it disappearing? You say it’s not? It’s cyclical? It doesn’t matter? Or it’s not us?
Please, be as verbose and specific as possible in your delusional responses so that when, in a few years after the Hague has started calling the Denialists to account, we can diagnose specific mental disorders that may be exculpatory for you.
REPLY: See the WUWT Sea Ice Reference page – and we’ll have a report when the ice turns the corner. In the meantime I recommend Xanax. Cheers. – Anthony
thanes says:
September 15, 2012 at 2:17 pm
You freakin’ homicidal idiots. Aren’t you at least going to try and say SOMETHING about the ice disappearing? Please, say something specific about the ice, rather than hint that you know something we don’t. Why is it disappearing? You say it’s not? It’s cyclical? It doesn’t matter? Or it’s not us?
Please, be as verbose and specific as possible in your delusional responses so that when, in a few years after the Hague has started calling the Denialists to account, we can diagnose specific mental disorders that may be exculpatory for you.
==========================================================
Homicidal?? who died?
Ok thanes, try to calm your hypersenstive twitching and actually read a bit from WUWT poster “Just the Facts”
Thanes, “Can you present any evidence to support your AGW supposition? Here is all of the info collected thus far that support the influence of wind and Atmospheric Oscillations:
In this October, 1 2007 NASA article;
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/quikscat-20071001.html
Son V. Nghiem of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said that “the rapid decline in winter perennial ice the past two years was caused by unusual winds. “Unusual atmospheric conditions set up wind patterns that compressed the sea ice, loaded it into the Transpolar Drift Stream and then sped its flow out of the Arctic,” he said. When that sea ice reached lower latitudes, it rapidly melted in the warmer waters.
“The winds causing this trend in ice reduction were set up by an unusual pattern of atmospheric pressure that began at the beginning of this century,” Nghiem said.”
This 2010 Guardian article states that;
“Much of the record breaking loss of ice in the Arctic ocean in recent years is down to the region’s swirling winds and is not a direct result of global warming, a new study reveals.”:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/22/wind-sea-ice-loss-arctic
This 2011 paper submitted to The Cryosphere by L. H. Smedsrud, et al. “used “geostrophic winds derived from reanalysis data to calculate the Fram Strait ice area export back to 1957, finding that the sea ice area export recently is about 25% larger than during the 1960’s.”
http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/1311/2011/tcd-5-1311-2011-print.pdf
This 2007 paper “Rapid reduction of Arctic perennial sea ice” by Nghiem, Rigor, Perovich, Clemente-Colo, Weatherly and Neumann states that;
“Perennial-ice extent loss in March within the DM domain was noticeable after the 1960s, and the loss became more rapid in the 2000s when QSCAT observations were available to verify the model results. QSCAT data also revealed mechanisms contributing to the perennial-ice extent loss: ice compression toward the western Arctic, ice loading into the Transpolar Drift (TD) together with an acceleration of the TD carrying excessive ice out of Fram Strait, and ice export to Baffin Bay.”
http://seaice.apl.washington.edu/Papers/NghiemEtal2007_MYreduction.pdf
This 2004 paper “Variations in the Age of Arctic Sea-ice and Summer Sea-ice Extent” by Ignatius G. Rigor & John M. Wallace, states that;
“The winter AO-index explains as much as 64% of the variance in summer sea-ice extent in the Eurasian sector, but the winter and summer AO-indices combined explain less than 20% of the variance along the Alaskan coast, where the age of sea-ice explains over 50% of the year-to year variability. If this interpretation is correct, low summer sea-ice extents are likely to persist for at least a few years. However, it is conceivable that, given an extended interval of low-index AO conditions, ice thickness and summertime sea-ice extent could gradually return to the levels characteristic of the 1980′s.”
http://seaice.apl.washington.edu/
2004 Science Daily article,” Extreme changes in the Arctic Oscillation in the early 1990s — and not warmer temperatures of recent years — are largely responsible for declines in how much sea ice covers the Arctic Ocean, with near record lows having been observed during the last three years, University of Washington researchers say.”
“It may have happened more than a decade ago, but the sea ice appears to still “remember” those Arctic Oscillation conditions, according to Ignatius Rigor, a mathematician with the UW’s Applied Physics Laboratory.”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/12/041220010410.htm
This 2010 paper, “Influence of winter and summer surface wind anomalies on summer Arctic sea ice extent” by Masayo Ogi, Koji Yamazaki and John M. Wallace, published in Geophysical Research Letters states that;
“We have shown results indicating that wind‐induced, year‐to‐year differences in the rate of flow of ice toward and through Fram Strait play an important role in modulating September SIE on a year‐to‐year basis and that a trend toward an increased wind‐induced rate of flow has contributed to the decline in the areal coverage of Arctic summer sea ice.”
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d2/masayo.ogi/2009GL042356.pdf
This 2001 paper, Fram Strait Ice Fluxes and Atmospheric Circulation: 1950–2000
by Torgny Vinje found that:
“Observations reveal a strong correlation between the ice fluxes through the Fram Strait and the cross-strait air pressure difference.”
“Although the 1950s and 1990s stand out as the two decades with maximum flux variability, significant variations seem more to be the rule than the exception over the whole period considered.”
“A noticeable fall in the winter air pressure of 7 hPa is observed in the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea during the last five decades.”
“The corresponding decadal maximum change in the Arctic Ocean ice thickness is of the order of 0.8 m. These temporal wind-induced variations may help explain observed changes in portions of the Arctic Ocean ice cover over the last decades. Due to an increasing rate in the ice drainage through the Fram Strait during the 1990s, this decade is characterized by a state of decreasing ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean.”
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%282001%29014%3C3508%3AFSIFAA%3E2.0.CO%3B2
“The decreases in recent decades, which are also partially due to circulation-driven ice export through the Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard (Vinje, 2001), have coincided with a positive trend in the NAO, with unusually high index values in the late 1980s and 1990s. During this period, the variability of ice motion and ice export through the Fram Strait was correlated strongly with the NAO; r∼ 0.86 for the ice area flux (Kwok and Rothrock, 1999) and r∼ 0.7 for the ice volume flux (Hilmer and Jung, 2000), although the relationship was insignificant (r∼ 0.1) before the mid 1970s (Hilmer and Jung, 2000). Deser et al. (2000) analysed a 40-yr gridded data set (1958–97) to determine the association between arctic sea ice, SAT and SLP, concluding that the multidecadal trends in the NAO/AO in the past three decades have been ‘imprinted upon the distribution of Arctic sea ice’, with the first principal component of sea-ice concentration significantly correlated (r∼−0.63) with the NAO index, recently cause-and-effect modelled by Hu et al. (2002). None the less, our calculations and those of Deser et al. (2000) indicate that, even in recent decades, only about one third of the variability in arctic total ice extent and MY ice area (Johannessen et al., 1999) is explained by the NAO index ”
” The decadal-scale mode associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and a low-frequency oscillation (LFO) with an approximate time scale of 60-80 years, dominate. Both modes were positive in the 1990s, signifying a prolonged phase of anomalously low atmospheric sea level pressure and above normal surface air temperature in the central Arctic. Consistent with an enhanced cyclonic component, the arctic anticyclone was weakened and vorticity of winds became positive. The rapid reduction of arctic ice thickness in the 1990s may be one manifestation of the intense atmosphere and ice cyclonic circulation regime due to the synchronous actions of the AO and LFO. Our results suggest that the decadal AO and multidecadal LFO drive large amplitude natural variability in the Arctic making detection of possible long-term trends induced by greenhouse gas warming most difficult.”
Igor V. Polyakov and Mark A. Johnson, 2000
http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/Decadal.pdf
Hilmer and Jung (2000) note a secular change in the relationship between the Fram Strait ice flux and the NAO; the high correlation noted by Kwok and Rothrock (1999) from 1978 to 1996 was not found in data prior to 1978. We expect our overall results to be more robust given the strong relationship between the AO and SIM over the Arctic, as compared to the weaker relationship between the north–south flow through Fram Strait and the AO. Even if one ignored the effect of the AO on the flux of ice through Fram Strait, the divergence of ice in the eastern Arctic would be still be ;50% greater under high-index conditions than under low-index conditions, and the heat flux would be ;25% greater.”
” We have shown that sea ice provides memory for the Arctic climate system so that changes in SIM driven by the AO during winter can be felt during the ensuing seasons; that is, the AO drives dynamic thinning of the sea ice in the eastern Arctic during winter, allowing more heat to be released from the ocean through the thinner ice during spring, and resulting in lower SIC during summer and the liberation of more heat by the freezing of the ice in autumn. The correlations between the wintertime AO and SIC and SAT during the subsequent seasons offers the hope of some predictability, which may be useful for navigation along the Northern Sea route.”
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Response-of-Sea-Ice-to-the-Arctic-Oscillation-2002-J-Climate.pdf
Thames, I look forward to seeing the body of evidence that you’ve based your opinion on…
In the mean time some more research on my own….August 14, 2012 at 11:02 am
http://bprc.osu.edu/geo/publications/mckay_etal_CJES_08.pdf
This paper shows that there is more ice now than the average of the past 9000 years.
It is widely known that the current ice conditions are nothing special…
“Arctic Ice Loss Has Been Much Worse Historically”
“The meltdown underway in the Arctic is remarkable, but an international team of beachcombers has uncovered evidence it’s been much worse before.”
“Based on the paleoclimate record from ice and ocean cores, the last warm period in the Arctic peaked about 8,000 years ago, during the so-called Holocene Thermal Maximum. Some studies suggest that as recent as 5,500 years ago, the Arctic had less summertime sea ice than today. However, it is not clear that the Arctic was completely free of summertime sea ice during this time.”
Thanes, the following links may help you understand that today’s global temperatures are well within the parameters of the Holocene:
click1
click2
click3
As we can see, we are currently in an ideal “Goldilocks” climate. There is nothing unusual or unprecedented happening now or on the horizon. Further, routine and abrupt temperature changes have happened naturally without regard to CO2 levels, which follow ΔT.
To claim that the planet has warmed from 288K to 288.8K is due to human activity over the past century and a half is fine, so long as you understand that it is simply a conjecture, not a testable hypothesis. The same applies to the natural variability in polar ice cover, which as I’ve shown has many natural precedents on century and even decadal scales.
Anyone who looks at a chart like this, and then claims that at times during the Holocene polar ice cover was not naturally less than curent ice cover has an agenda that has nothing to do with science, and everything to do with keeping the grant gravy train rolling.
thanes says:
September 15, 2012 at 2:17 pm
And another emotional uninformed cheerleader for the “cause”. As usual, brings NOTHING to the table but spittle and vehemence. I care just as much (probably more) about the environment and have spent a good deal of my life in the wilderness. Listen to my words; It is civilization that is tenuous, not nature. If you know ANYTHING about ANYTHING, you will know this to be true.
Arctic sea ice volume is actually at a record low, just like its extent and area: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/record-dominoes-9-piomas-sea-ice-volume.html
As for the Antarctic sea ice trend (a) it’s a very slight trend to an increase, compared to the sharp trend to a decrease in the Arctic; (b) it isn’t nearly enough in absolute numbers to balance out the Arctic drop in sea ice, resulting in a net fall in area and extent(http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg), (c) what matters visavis albedo changes for the climate is summer sea ice extent, not winter, since there’s no sun to reflect in winter, and (d) it’s happening alongside a fall in Antarctic land ice volume.
And as for whether this year is a fluke due to weather conditions, or part of a long-term downwards trend… I’d like to put two things forward. First, the prior progression supports a downwards trend (http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20111004_Figure3.png).
Second: I think we’ll have a much better idea over the next few years than we can say at the moment. I suggest we plan on treating it as something of a natural experiment, looking at the NSIDC September monthly extent, since that shows slightly less stochastic variation than the minimum extent reached on any day in the year. Past September monthly minima have been as follows:
1978-2006: Dropping gradually from about 8 to 5.5 (eyeballing the chart)
2007: 4.30
2008: 4.67
2009: 5.36
2010: 4.90
2011: 4.61
(2007 to 2011 data from http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2011/10/)
The September 2012 average looks like it’ll be a new record, somewhere below 4m square km, unless we see an unusually rapid refreeze (I’d eyeball it at about 3.75m square km over the month so far, based on the graph here http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/). So what might the next couple of years tell us? How about: if the 2013 and 2014 Arctic summer sea ice extents go back to the 5.5 to 8m square km seen between 1978 and 2006, they’ll contraindicate a melting trend strongly; if they go back to the 2008-2011ish levels of around 4.5m to 5.5m square km, depending on where they are in that range they’ll offer either contraindication (5 to 5.5m) or ambivalence (4.5 to 5m); if they’re in the 4 to 4.5m square km range, they’ll indicate a melting trend; and if they’re below 4m square km again, expecially if they’re even lower than the 2012 record we’re seeing now, they’ll strongly indicate such a trend. Any views on this natural experiment, or bets? (I’d be very unwilling to bet, but based on what we’ve seen, I’d be surprised if 2013 and 2014 were either below 3m or above 5m; anything within that range seems possible, however).
David:
“the rapid decline in winter perennial ice the past two years was caused by unusual winds. “Unusual atmospheric conditions set up wind patterns that compressed the sea ice, loaded it into the Transpolar Drift Stream and then sped its flow out of the Arctic,”
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Does that mean it would be much cheaper to string a net across the exits to the Arctic Ocean, than to cut down on CO2?
If it keeps the bed-wetters happy, and our taxes lower, why not do it?
.
Changed my mind on betting: I would be happy to offer the following bets. The terms of each individual bet are even-odds, promising to give US$10 to a charity of the opponent’s choice if you lose (my charity of choice being Doctors Without Borders).
1) September 2012 will set a new record low for the NSIDC monthly average extent of <4.1m square km (doubt anyone will take that, but it's your money…)
2) September 2013 will have an average of 5.5m square km
4) There will be another new record low September monthly average within the next five years.
5) The three-year average September extent for 2013-2015 will be lower than the three-year average September extent for 2010-2012.
(All bets are based on the NSIDC September monthly average, in case it isn’t clear).
Please respond within a week if you’re responding to the first bet; otherwise, any time you like before the end of the year for bets 2 to 5. I’m happy to consider other bets you may put to me as well.
Not sure what happened there, but I think some text was missed because it was encased in “less than/greater than” symbols. Please ignore bet 2. Bets 2 and 3 were meant to read:
2) September 2013 will have an average of less than 4.8m square km
3) No year between 2013 and 2017 will have an average of greater than 5.5m square km.
@Philip Bradley,
“None of the Greenland glaciers reach the open ocean.”
Incorrect, unless you’re using a very selective reading of “open ocean”, as you can see from this map: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b5/Greenland_ice_sheet_AMSL_thickness_map-en.svg
Alternatively, to give a more specific contradiction, what about the Petermann glacier: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Greenland_tmo_2003186.jpg ?
Yeah..this is mainstream media in a nutshell..They just throw out stories..merely lies.. especially about the arctic or [Antarctica] area…It’s just four or five years ago..they printed lies about the penguins in [Antarctica] was almost extinct..cause the ice was melting…Turns out there are more penguins than ever…Same story about the arctic polar bear…They thttp://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/wp-admin/edit-comments.php?comment_status=moderated#comments-formhrive..and population is growing…Media can tell lies on anything regarding the polar areas..cause..after all..how many of us are really able to go check if it’s true?