Lewandowsky thinks failure to get or find email is conspiracy theory

Wow, this Lewandowsky story just keeps getting more bizarre. It’s like nothing I’ve even seen before.

On DeSmog Blog, Lewandowsky says we are victims of “conspiratorial thinking” and promises “four more people will have egg on their faces.” Great, bring it.

So now there’s a conspiracy theory going around that I didn’t contact them. It’s a perfect, perfect illustration of conspiratorial thinking. It’s illustrative of exactly the process I was analysing. People jump to conclusions on the basis of no evidence. I would love to be able to release those emails if given permission, because it means four more people will have egg on their faces. I’m anxiously waiting the permission to release this crucial information because it helps to identify people who engage in conspiratorial thinking rather than just searching their inboxes.

Desmogblog (http://s.tt/1mwBG)

Newsflash perfessor. We HAVE searched our inboxes and as I reported on Lucia’s blog:

Anthony Watts (Comment #102455)

September 1st, 2012 at 2:03 am

Add WUWT to the list. If he sent me an invitation, I surely can’t find it. Jo Nova asked me to search a couple of weeks ago, didn’t find it then, nor now.

That comment on WUWT referenced by “ob” upthread is not an invitation, and certainly not from Lewandowsky or one of his co-authors. It is from PaulW, who isn’t from Australia.

and…

Anthony Watts (Comment #102580)

September 4th, 2012 at 7:34 am

Regarding Steve McIntyre’s note at 3:11PM.

I understand his problem, I get hundreds of emails a day. Sometimes I miss important emails in the deluge.

So far, on my home computer (where I do most WUWT work) I have not been able to find any evidence that WUWT received an invitation from uwa.edu.au” or Charles Hanich about that time. That doesn’t mean there isn’t any, as it is also possible it ended up in the spam filter and was deleted.

I’ll search my office computer today and get a second look, to see if perhaps it resides there.

Lewandowski should know that if you really want to reach people in this day and age, don’t assume email is reliable. Back in the DARPA days, before SPAM accounted for a significant portion of Internet traffic, it was reliable. Now today, for anything truly important I follow up with a phone call and repeated emails until I get a response.

Lewandosky’s assistant apparently made an assumption not supported by a reply, Lewandowsky made a further unsupported assumption about “privacy”.

and…

Anthony Watts (Comment #102588)

September 4th, 2012 at 10:06 am

Per my previous comment, in addition to my home computer, I did a search on my office computer for:

“uwa.edu.au”

“Charles Hanich”

“Hanich”

And got no emails.

So either it was never sent, or ended up in SPAM and was deleted.

I see a lack of due diligence on the part of Lewandowsky if he really wanted skeptics to take the survey. The fact that he delegated the task to an underling, did no assurance follow up, and went with one-sided sampling tells me he his goal was to create a paper that fit his pre-conceived notions.

There’s no science involved in this paper, just opinion and confirmation bias of the highest order.

The fact that this paper passed peer review is even more troubling.

=====================================================

To be extra thorough, I also searched again just now for “kwiksurvey” which is the name of the survey website Lewandowsky used. Nothing. I repeated all the searches I made above using two methods.

1. Email search tool for my email client

2. Computer file search tool – looking at every file (including the thousands of emails I have back to 1998)

While I found some files with the keywords, none  of them were the survey participation invitation.

So explain to me professor Lewandowsky, how failure to receive or be able to find emails supposedly sent, without any other mode of contact or attempts at communication is somehow conspiracy theory.

If Lewandowsky sent an email, it likely ended up in SPAM. Lots of “take our quick survey” emails are spam these days. He should know better than to trust email as the only contact medium for something he deems important. Instead, he accuses us of being conspiracy theorists when we ask for proof.

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Jo Nova (via Andrew Bolt) points out this little incongruity:

There are even more strange things about this. Deltoid had already hosted the survey before McIntyre was even emailed once. McIntyre apparently did not recieve the same invitation or a link to the same survey. Deltoid got their invitations from Professor Lewandowsky, not the assistant. Lewandowsky said no skeptic hosted the survey, but Junkscience did. Did Lewandowsky not even check the sites of skeptics he emailed?

Anything goes in climate conspiracy theory science it seems.

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Louis Hooffstetter
September 7, 2012 1:50 pm

davidmhoffer says:
Well if someone REALLY wanted to turn the tables on him….
“We’ve got copies of the questions? The survey site is free? Science is about reproducibility right?”
I second! Absolutely! Go for it!
Post the questions on the free survey site, get the readers of the top 5 denialist blogs to take the survey, and post the results!
Pure genius! (Don’t forget to apply for lots of grant $$ first)

September 7, 2012 2:04 pm

So let’s get this figured out.
“Denier” spam boxes filter out the survey, but the “believers” spam filters let it through?
Sounds fishy !!!

mfo
September 7, 2012 2:17 pm

How sweet, the Professor of Silly Questions from the Department of Egg on Face is now holding hands with DeSmog.
“Stephan is a cognitive scientist at the University of Western Australia whose research examines people’s memory and decision making, with particular emphasis on how people respond to corrections of misinformation.”
http://theconversation.edu.au/profiles/stephan-lewandowsky-685
Well this is a perfect opportunity for Lewandowski to examine himself and how he responds to “corrections of misinformation”.

September 7, 2012 2:51 pm

F. Ross says:
September 7, 2012 at 12:02 pm

.. ask for a “Delivery Status Notification” AND a “Return Receipt”. And even this is not foolproof

—-
Your right about that. I never automatically acknowledge receipt. That just informs the sending bot that it’s a live E-mail addy that someone actually reads and asks for a magnitude increase in the amount of SPAM sent to it.

Downdraft
September 7, 2012 3:09 pm

So Lewandowsky is a conspiracy theorist. An incompetent one at that.

Bruce of Newcastle
September 7, 2012 3:11 pm

Not being original here, but our Stefan’s modus operandi reminds me of:

“But Mr Dent, the plans have been available in the local planning office for the last nine months.”
“Oh yes, well as soon as I heard I went straight round to see them, yesterday afternoon. You hadn’t exactly gone out of your way to call attention to them, had you? I mean, like actually telling anybody or anything.”
“But the plans were on display …”
“On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
“That’s the display department.”
“With a flashlight.”
“Ah, well the lights had probably gone.”
“So had the stairs.”
“But look, you found the notice didn’t you?”
“Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard’.”

davidmhoffer
September 7, 2012 3:12 pm

Louis Hooffstetter;
I second! Absolutely! Go for it!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Anthony,
Would you be supportive of something like this? No point investing the time unless you are on side. Other blogs too, but you have easier access to their owners than I do. Also, would fair use come into play? Ideally I think we’d want to replicate the questions verbatim, no idea if that would raise issues or not.
Plus, I ain’t no statistician, someone else would have to do the analysis.

NoFixedAddress
September 7, 2012 3:40 pm

” Steve C says:
September 7, 2012 at 12:30 pm
timg56 comments that
……………………………………….
The bad news, Tim, is that Gina Rinehart in Australia, for one, certainly seems to feel just that way about us “wealthy” (though not nearly as wealthy as her) Westerners. The idea is not as unspeakable as it should be.”
Steve C, are you in the pay of UWA?

timg56
September 7, 2012 3:50 pm

Smokey,
Why am I not surprised?
One of the things I have come to love in this debate is hearing the constant refrain about it is all simple physics and anybody not accepting that is in denial. I keep asking about the simple arithmatic and hear crickets chirping.
Simple numbers really, such as how much impact would there be if the US and Europe were to magically figure out how to reduce their CO2 emissions by 50% in 10 years?
Or how many of the 50 million climate refugees have shown up?
How about adding up the number of islands or low lying coastal regions which have disappeared?
Chirp, chirp.
Steve C,
At least in the US we still have the insurance policy of firearms ownership should some group try to force us back into a 14th century life style.

September 7, 2012 4:03 pm

Lewandowsky: “People jump to conclusions on the basis of no evidence.”
Isn’t that how got “The Hockey Stick” in the first palce?

David Ball
September 7, 2012 4:13 pm

Russell Cook (@questionAGW) says:
September 7, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Awesome post. It is all about the smear.

rogerknights
September 7, 2012 4:22 pm

Regarding per capita emissions from China, WUWT had a thread on that under two months ago:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/19/per-capita-co2-emissions-in-china-reach-european-levels/
If prof. L wanted to reach Anthony, the best way to do so was via Tips & Notes.

Another Gareth
September 7, 2012 4:46 pm

If Lewandowsky did contact sceptical blogs in 2010 has he done so again? He doesn’t need to ask them for permission to name them, just contact them again in private. That would immediately flag up any of the 5 who never actually got the email due to reasons of spam filters or whatever.

Skiphil
September 7, 2012 4:50 pm

As I posted on another thread (but highly relevant on this one too), Lewandowsky reveals himself to be a deeply biased proponent of one side in the climate wars:
Stephan Lewandowsky reviews Mann’s book “The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars”
His “motivated reasoning” does not exactly help him to be a trustworthy judge of survey questions and data, scientific study of “climate skeptics” etc. when he is so fervently, uncritically allied to Michael Mann.
Lewandowsky is behaving as a highly partisan activist, not as a scientist.

cui bono
September 7, 2012 5:09 pm

20,000 spam emails? 20,000? Yeesh! I thought my dozen a week Viagra ads were annoying.
Maybe you could auto-forward them all to Lewandowski? He’s clearly less busy than you.

Slabadang
September 7, 2012 5:14 pm

How desperate are these people!
Sickos! Lewandowski Glick Mann Cook Redfern Romm vtf is wrong with these people? Lying fanatics and at the same time so obvious stupid that Mr Bean reflects as Einstein in compearance..

Slabadang
September 7, 2012 5:16 pm

Lewansowskis [review] of Manns book!
“He does science just like I do”

charles nelson
September 7, 2012 5:42 pm

Watts Up With That has currently around 125 million hits.
It is a major forum for anyone interested in Climate.
Any study of the beliefs of CAGW Skeptics must surely be diminished if WUWT is not included.
Stephan Lewandowsky claims to have sent WUWT, ONE email asking for collaboration on his project.
An email which he is unwilling to publish, so that its validity, date, content etc can be confirmed.
1. Shouldn’t he have tried just a little harder?
2. Shouldn’t he publish the request, just to prove he tried at all?

Bennett
September 7, 2012 5:42 pm

mfo says on September 7, 2012 at 2:17 pm
“Well this is a perfect opportunity for Lewandowski to examine himself and how he responds to “corrections of misinformation”.”
Ah, that’s a beautiful thought right there.

September 7, 2012 5:42 pm

Lewandowsky tries to discredit skeptics partly by pointing out that blogs are a primary medium through which skeptics publish their perspectives, saying “By definition, denial is difficult to practice in the peer-reviewed literature….The internet, by contrast, provides opportunity for individuals who reject a scientific consensus to feed ‘each other’s feelings of persecution by a corrupt elite’ (McKee & Diethelm, 2010, pp. 1310–1311). Accordingly, climate ‘skeptic’ blogs have become a major staging post for denial..”
It’s terribly unfair for him to say that, but we need to understand that this demeaning attitude towards blogs is pervasive. Accordingly, I believe WUWT and other skeptical blogs need to be STRIKINGLY different from the typical online blog. That means no more Hitler-parody videos or anything like that. It needs to be IMMEDIATELY OBVIOUS to anyone who ever visits this website that this is a serious place for serious discourse.

Skiphil
September 7, 2012 5:44 pm

Lewandowsky “knew” (believed) that climate skeptics are conspiracy theorists and he went to construct a survey and article to say so. Talk about motivated reasoning! He is a prime exemplar of the process. He does a lot of bloviating in various places, and his favorite meme seems to be that skeptics about climate science must be conspiracy theorists.
Here he is on May 3, 2010 likening climate skeptics to 9/11 “Truthers”:
“Evidence is overrated when you’re a conspiracy theorist”
3 May 2010
Lewandowsky views skeptics and critics as “conspiracy theorists”
He sounds so much like Michael Mann, both extremely opinionated activists using “climate science” to promote their own socio-political agendas (it is NOT conspiracy-mongering to notice their public words and behaviors):
Lewandowsky has lots of opinions

Skiphil
September 7, 2012 6:11 pm

In 2010 John Cook of the notorious (and unreliable) SKepticalScience blog described working with a U. Western Australia cognitive scientist (it would appear to be Lewandowsky?) on cognition experiments about skepticism on climate change:
Cook and Lewandowksy collaborated on psych experiments in cognition?
(read the last few comments of the the thread)
A BH commentator guesses that the project may have been dropped and that Lewandowsky may have had pangs of scientific conscience, but that seems to be only guesswork. Did these experiments go forward, and did they involve Lewandowsky? It is well worth trying to determine if this project/experiment went further, or if it morphed into Lewandowsky’s later (very different) survey approach.
The Cook/SkS project involved having SkS regulars fabricate fake “skeptic” quotes on the blog for use in the experiment! They wanted to study cognition with and without exposure to various statements. One wonders if this went very far, and why they could not find real skeptic quotes to use.
Did Lewandowsky know of and endorse creating fake skeptic quotes which were publicly posted on the blog?? (were they ever posted or not?)
Psych experimenters might legitimately create statements within a study which are well vetted and controlled for, to study how people respond, but if fake “skeptics” were created on the public blog that might be a different kettle of fish.
It all sounds amateurish, unscientifice, and of dubious research ethics.

F. Ross
September 7, 2012 7:48 pm

Slabadang says:
September 7, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Lewansowskis [review] of Manns book!
“He does science just like I do.”

Good one! Suggested changes: “He do syense like me does.”

Dreadnought
September 7, 2012 8:01 pm

Lewandowski is the apocryphal ‘Egyptian fisherman’, with wet feet and a good view of the pyramids….
He is in de Nile, and it’s high time to wake up and smell the guacamole.
}:o(

September 7, 2012 8:37 pm

Two things might clear this up.
1. Dr. Lew, resend the invites. (Sounds like you should start all over again anyway.)
2. The blogs he say’s did respond, give him permission to release your response. You might also put your permission/response up here at WUWT. Nothing like the light of day to kill a conspiracy theory!
PS “Conspiracy Theory” was a good movie.