Lewandowsky thinks failure to get or find email is conspiracy theory

Wow, this Lewandowsky story just keeps getting more bizarre. It’s like nothing I’ve even seen before.

On DeSmog Blog, Lewandowsky says we are victims of “conspiratorial thinking” and promises “four more people will have egg on their faces.” Great, bring it.

So now there’s a conspiracy theory going around that I didn’t contact them. It’s a perfect, perfect illustration of conspiratorial thinking. It’s illustrative of exactly the process I was analysing. People jump to conclusions on the basis of no evidence. I would love to be able to release those emails if given permission, because it means four more people will have egg on their faces. I’m anxiously waiting the permission to release this crucial information because it helps to identify people who engage in conspiratorial thinking rather than just searching their inboxes.

Desmogblog (http://s.tt/1mwBG)

Newsflash perfessor. We HAVE searched our inboxes and as I reported on Lucia’s blog:

Anthony Watts (Comment #102455)

September 1st, 2012 at 2:03 am

Add WUWT to the list. If he sent me an invitation, I surely can’t find it. Jo Nova asked me to search a couple of weeks ago, didn’t find it then, nor now.

That comment on WUWT referenced by “ob” upthread is not an invitation, and certainly not from Lewandowsky or one of his co-authors. It is from PaulW, who isn’t from Australia.

and…

Anthony Watts (Comment #102580)

September 4th, 2012 at 7:34 am

Regarding Steve McIntyre’s note at 3:11PM.

I understand his problem, I get hundreds of emails a day. Sometimes I miss important emails in the deluge.

So far, on my home computer (where I do most WUWT work) I have not been able to find any evidence that WUWT received an invitation from uwa.edu.au” or Charles Hanich about that time. That doesn’t mean there isn’t any, as it is also possible it ended up in the spam filter and was deleted.

I’ll search my office computer today and get a second look, to see if perhaps it resides there.

Lewandowski should know that if you really want to reach people in this day and age, don’t assume email is reliable. Back in the DARPA days, before SPAM accounted for a significant portion of Internet traffic, it was reliable. Now today, for anything truly important I follow up with a phone call and repeated emails until I get a response.

Lewandosky’s assistant apparently made an assumption not supported by a reply, Lewandowsky made a further unsupported assumption about “privacy”.

and…

Anthony Watts (Comment #102588)

September 4th, 2012 at 10:06 am

Per my previous comment, in addition to my home computer, I did a search on my office computer for:

“uwa.edu.au”

“Charles Hanich”

“Hanich”

And got no emails.

So either it was never sent, or ended up in SPAM and was deleted.

I see a lack of due diligence on the part of Lewandowsky if he really wanted skeptics to take the survey. The fact that he delegated the task to an underling, did no assurance follow up, and went with one-sided sampling tells me he his goal was to create a paper that fit his pre-conceived notions.

There’s no science involved in this paper, just opinion and confirmation bias of the highest order.

The fact that this paper passed peer review is even more troubling.

=====================================================

To be extra thorough, I also searched again just now for “kwiksurvey” which is the name of the survey website Lewandowsky used. Nothing. I repeated all the searches I made above using two methods.

1. Email search tool for my email client

2. Computer file search tool – looking at every file (including the thousands of emails I have back to 1998)

While I found some files with the keywords, none  of them were the survey participation invitation.

So explain to me professor Lewandowsky, how failure to receive or be able to find emails supposedly sent, without any other mode of contact or attempts at communication is somehow conspiracy theory.

If Lewandowsky sent an email, it likely ended up in SPAM. Lots of “take our quick survey” emails are spam these days. He should know better than to trust email as the only contact medium for something he deems important. Instead, he accuses us of being conspiracy theorists when we ask for proof.

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Jo Nova (via Andrew Bolt) points out this little incongruity:

There are even more strange things about this. Deltoid had already hosted the survey before McIntyre was even emailed once. McIntyre apparently did not recieve the same invitation or a link to the same survey. Deltoid got their invitations from Professor Lewandowsky, not the assistant. Lewandowsky said no skeptic hosted the survey, but Junkscience did. Did Lewandowsky not even check the sites of skeptics he emailed?

Anything goes in climate conspiracy theory science it seems.

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Louise
September 7, 2012 10:17 am

Alexwade – I agree that accusation without proof is very wrong. Do you think that applies here too? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/13/friday-funny-dr-michael-mann-keeps-interesting-company/#comment-1032509
REPLY: And when asked, the troll known as caerbannog666 refuses to answer the question. If it isn’t true, why the reticence to answer? Lousise you really need to get up to speed, as you keep striking out here. – Anthony

2kevin
September 7, 2012 10:19 am

It sounds like a poorly designed trap and bluff on Lewandowsky’s part.
Unknown people are going to get egg on their face for lying(?) about his invitation, but he can’t release it?
Is he hoping that that people, who according to him, do (or do not) exist in his email outbox will step forward? One scenario has a possibility of happening but the other puts him in quasi-reality of his own making.
Lewandowsky’s stance then: Circular reasoning and an option for a logical explosion, similar to an egg which may or may not fall on ones face and break open.

davidmhoffer
September 7, 2012 10:23 am

Well if someone REALLY wanted to turn the tables on him….
We’ve got copies of the questions? The survey site is free? Science is about reproducibility right?

more soylent green!
September 7, 2012 10:29 am

This reminds of why in the Soviet Union all the best minds went into math, engineering or the hard sciences. The social sciences could be easily co-opeted and were completely manipulated by the government for propaganda purposes.
Lewandowsky shows us that the best minds still don’t go into the social sciences.

John T
September 7, 2012 10:34 am

“I would love to be able to release those emails if given permission”
Has he asked for permission? You’d think if he’d really “love” to release them, he would have at least asked for permission. And if he did ask for permission and was denied, you’d think he’d be all too happy to say he asked but was denied.

September 7, 2012 10:38 am

Lewandowsky’s server should have a log file of all emails sent. If pressed, Lewandowsky should be able to produce and present that file as proof that he sent email invitations to all concerned parties. Or not, of course. The log file may instead reveal lacunae in the invitation list; maybe even systematic lacunae. Proof positive, one way or the other. No more need to speculate, derogate, or ummm, conspiratate. 🙂

sorepaw
September 7, 2012 10:54 am

I’m anxiously waiting the permission to release this crucial information because it helps to identify people who engage in conspiratorial thinking rather than just searching their inboxes.
Desmogblog (http://s.tt/1mwBG)
Yeah, sure he is. /sarc/
Dr. Lewandowsky must know that he is in a serious jam. His blustering response will not help him out of it.

Louise
September 7, 2012 10:54 am

Anthony – why should he need to answer you at all? You accused him of something and seem to think it is up to him to defend himself. How is that different to Alexwade’s comment regarding the accusation levelled at Mitt Romney?
REPLY: I have no idea about the Romney/Alexwade thing as this is the first mention I’ve seen of it. Science is supposed to have standards. If you can’t show your method and data to be reproducible (and so far Lewandowsky can’t/won’t) then it isn’t science. As the data gatherer, quality control is his responsibility. It seems clear he made no effort to ensure a balance in sampling, leaving participation to the whims of email delivery.
I’ll continue to ask those tough questions (as is my right) while you continue to be an unquestioning cheerleader for the Team. Be as upset as you wish. Cheers, -Anthony

F. Ross
September 7, 2012 10:56 am

“If Lewandowsky sent an email, it likely ended up in SPAM. ”
Hi Anthony. Just to cover all bases, if your your email app has a SPAM filter log have you checked that log for processing the “missing” emails?
REPLY: it does have a SPAM log, and all quarantined emails are saved, but I routinely delete it. So there’s no record back to 2010 unfortunately. For example in just this past week, I deleted ~20,000 spam emails. As I’ve said many times, my email is a firehose. – Anthony

NikFromNYC
September 7, 2012 10:59 am

Why is this dude sending e-mails to blogs?!
“Greetings, OT post here…I am studying AGW skeptic attitudes towards the butterfly effect on weather and oh, by the way, also how badly prone to truly insane conspiracy theories.”
Ah, sneakiness was indeed in order, to avoid ridicule and WUWT crowd blowback.

Tamara
September 7, 2012 10:59 am

I wanted to survey some teamsters, so I had a friend of mine leave the surveys on the windshields of some trucks. I also went to my local university bookstore coffee shop and left some surveys there. I now have several survey responses and can write up an accurate paper describing what teamsters think.

Editor
September 7, 2012 10:59 am

If very few of his responses are from sceptical sites, whatever the reason, why did he publish the results. He must have known they were meaningless.

Heggs
September 7, 2012 11:26 am

This is getting silly. We have an expression here in Ireland, ‘If you find yourself in a hole, STOP digging’. Someone pass that along to Mr.Lewandowsky please.

davidmhoffer
September 7, 2012 11:29 am

REPLY: it does have a SPAM log, and all quarantined emails are saved, but I routinely delete it. So there’s no record back to 2010 unfortunately. For example in just this past week, I deleted ~20,000 spam emails.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Even that wouldn’t be definitive. Most anti-spam strategies have layers of defense. The first layer employs rules that are 99% accurate and never let’s them into the email environment itself. Those 20,000 emails deleted from the spam folder are the ones that were passed through to the second layer for additional inspection and stuck in the spam folder pending manual deletion. The first layer probably deleted another million emails or so!
Which is why if you have something important to communicate, and you haven’t exchanged email with that particular person before, it is important to find an alternate means of confirmation (phone call, post in tips and notes, even a comment in a thread will work). It is also why the onus is on the person who claimed to send it to prove that they did, not on the person who may or may not have received it.

Bill Illis
September 7, 2012 11:55 am

manicbeancounter also reviewed the data that Lewandowsky collected (the version that was made public at least).
This is where the real contraversy is. His data does not even come close to supporting the claims made (let alone the fact that the collection method was salted). It should be withdrawn on this basis alone.
For example, of the 6 people who believed Nasa faked the moon landing, 4 of the 6 were strong/moderate believers in climate change theory. Same with most of the other conspiracy issues. The only correct claim is that skeptics are more likely to be free-market supporters (and believers are more likely to hold left-wing economic philosophies).
http://manicbeancounter.com/2012/09/01/lewandowsky-et-al-2012-motivated-rejection-of-science-part-3-data-analysis-of-the-conspiracy-theory-element/
Parts 1 through 5 of the review linked on the right side of manicbeancounters website.

F. Ross
September 7, 2012 12:02 pm


davidmhoffer says:
September 7, 2012 at 11:29 am
It is also why the onus is on the person who claimed to send it to prove that they did, not on the person who may or may not have received it.

Which is why, if I am sending an important email, I always ask for a “Delivery Status Notification” AND a “Return Receipt”. And even this is not foolproof as many systems do not offer a “Return Receipt” option [or so I have been informed].
One would think that Lewandowsky would at least have asked for and retained a Delivery Status Notification for every blog to which he sent the survey.

Luther Wu
September 7, 2012 12:18 pm

The dog ate your email?

KnR
September 7, 2012 12:23 pm

.” People jump to conclusions on the basis of no evidence.”
Has an expert in his field through extension personal experience he may have had a good point but then , “. I would love to be able to release those emails if given permission, because it means four more people will have egg on their faces.” what ever point he had is thrown away via some desperate BS to cover this tracks .

Steve C
September 7, 2012 12:30 pm

timg56 comments that

“The more interesting comment by David [Arpell] was something to the effect that per capita, China’s output was only 37% that of the US. I am curious as to the point David was trying to make with this statistic. The only point I can take away from it is that he believes Americans should live at the level of the average Chinese peasant.”

The bad news, Tim, is that Gina Rinehart in Australia, for one, certainly seems to feel just that way about us “wealthy” (though not nearly as wealthy as her) Westerners. The idea is not as unspeakable as it should be.
As for Lewandowsky, even “bizarre” hardly seems to cover it. I’m all agog for the next instalment.

Lars P.
September 7, 2012 12:36 pm

This is getting worse by the minute. Conspiracy theory? What is this guy talking about?
That’s babbles without reasoning. He does not need any allowance to show who he invited, these are his own mails – this is ridiculous.
Contacting per email nowadays without at least trying to establish a contact otherwise, at least one phone call or one post in a blog (he tries to contact blogs!) is raising higher the ridicule level. I just received these days several spam mails with “prizes for survey takers” “your paid survey is here” “red lobster survey” “super survey available”, but believe me I do not have a blog and did not read past the title in the spam folder, hope it was not a mail from the “professor”…
Contacting only one side of the debate is trying to influence the outcome. This is the first validation of any statistical work to get a representative sample of the population!
What university was he from?
Graham has struck the nail on the head here, it deserves reposting:
“They say that fish rot from the head, so could the drop in Australia’s performance in education be due to the quality of some of the academics holding tenured positions at universities rather than what happens in primary and secondary school?
If credentialled, well-funded and tenured tertiary institution staff are capable of dishing-up research which should fail an undergraduate, what chance have lower echelons.”
http://www.ambitgambit.com/2012/09/06/fish-rot-from-the-head-part-1/

davidmhoffer
September 7, 2012 12:39 pm

F. Ross;
And even this is not foolproof as many systems do not offer a “Return Receipt” option [or so I have been informed].
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You’ve been informed correctly. Plus, even for systems that have that feature, it can be turned off at the administrator and the user level. I have my personal settings turned off, so read receipt requests are ignored by default.

davidmhoffer
September 7, 2012 12:58 pm

Hey, is he related to Monica?
Oh…that was “Lewinsky”.
Sorry, names kinda sound the same and both have stains on their reputations….

September 7, 2012 1:02 pm

darkgreendevils says:
September 7, 2012 at 8:29 am
“DeSmogBlog is the creation of James Hoggan and his PR company and Hoggan sits on David Suzuki’s board. …”
But keep following that line back: ThinkProgress’ Joe Romm said, “Ross Gelbspan, whose defining books Boiling Point and The Heat is On were a big part of the inspiration for starting the DeSmogBlog….” ( http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2008/01/07/202254/kudos-to-desmogblog/?mobile=nc )
David Suzuki’s web page on “Climate change deniers” links straight to Gelbspan’s site when speaking of the ‘fossil fuel industry guilt’ for skeptic scientists (4th paragraph http://www.davidsuzuki.org/issues/climate-change/science/climate-change-basics/climate-change-deniers/ ).
In the references section of Lewandowsky’s paper are other ‘analysts’ who have papers, presentations, etc in which they make assertions that skeptic climate scientists are corrupted by fossil fuel industry money – Boykoff, Dunlap, Freudenburg, Lahsen, McCright, Mooney, Oreskes, Stephen Schneider. Each in turn cites a single source in their own writings and speeches to say skeptic climate scientists are paid by ‘big coal & oil’ to manufacture doubt about global warming: Ross Gelbspan.
And regarding the “Gleick” coincidence that commenter TomRude (September 7, 2012 at 8:29 am) suggested, I pointed out the Desmogblog/Gelbspan/Gleick/Gore associations back in February: “Fakegate Opens a Door: More than meets the eye in the Heartland controversy” http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/02/fakegate_opens_a_door.html
Funny thing about AGW promoters suggesting conspiracies on the part of skeptics, when what we have instead appears to be 20 solid years of efforts by enviro-activists to manufacture doubt about the credibility of the skeptics.

Yancey Ward
September 7, 2012 1:09 pm

I am completely confused. He can release any e-mail he sent. This increasingly appears to be an outright lie on his part. He claims he has replies that explicitly declined, but won’t say who they are?

Ally E.
September 7, 2012 1:34 pm

The way I see it, Lewandowsky is showing a perfect, perfect illustration of duck and weave.