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Taking a break, it has been an exhausting week. Postings resume Monday.
Be sure to vote in the August ARCUS sea ice forecast poll.
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Don’t blame you Anthony – its a helluva pace you keep, I don’t know how you do it. But most impressive (to me) was how professionally you responded to Zeke and Mosh. You set a great standard – inspirational really. Its impacted me in what I do as well.
Babsy says:
August 4, 2012 at 2:37 pm
http://bugasalt.com/
No financial interest, etc.
I foresee a PETA market for little, tiny trauma kits…
Has anyone worked with the BEST and NOAA data?
I just compared the newest BEST for Alabama with the NOAA monthly data and found a 1960 pivot point. BEST data is warmer than NOAA post 1960 and cooler than NOAA pre-1960.
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2012/08/04/best-minus-noaa-wow-best-has-cooled-the-pre-1960-data-and-warmed-the-post-1960-data-for-alabama/
I don’t totally trust my results but it explains why they didn’t find any cooling in the southeast USA.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
August 4, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Very pleasantly surprised Gene.
As it’s open thread, can anyone point me to a free replacement for Flash & PDF reader that integrate with Firefox on WinDoze?
Google doesn’t seem to be a great help. 🙁
DaveE.
Paul Vaughan says:
August 4, 2012 at 1:09 pm
“I have robustly detected a subharmonic of the terrestrial polar motion signal …..”
Paul, you need someone to translate gobbledygook (jargon) if you can’t say it in good expository English. This abstruse manner of speech says more about you than it does about the subject. And, BTW, you haven’t “robustly detected..” (here robustly modifies detected, e.g. you may have robustly detected something insignificant) you have detected an unambiguous signal of something or other. I suspect that you are a bright guy but try to get the stuff across clearly without trying to impress others with yourself. You are, afterall, asking for cash. It should be an advertisement in the manner of selling your product. I hope this criticism is received as a piece of goodwill.
Paul Vaughan
As you can see few of us can understand your particular field, where you currently are with research, and where you hope funding will take you in future.
To help us and you, why not write a ten line summary of what you have done to date, what you hope to do in the future and what end purpose that will achieve.
You have to ‘sell’ your project but none of us have any idea at present what we might be buying should we purchase (fund) it.
All the best
Tonyb
Here in OZ we’re forever berated with all sorts of stories by Flannery, CSIRO and pollies etc about future dangerous SLR.
Here is a graph of how much Antarctica ( 89% of planet’s ice) and Greenland ( 10% of ice) will contribute to SLR until 2300 or next 300 years.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/364/1844/1709/F4.expansion.html
Antarctica shows all models are negative to SLR and Greenland shows all models are positive to SLR.
I just wish Willis or someone could write an article showing where this dangerous SLR is to come from. The graph shows all the models for the next 300 years, so where will that dangerous SLR come from I wonder? Can anyone tell me please?
David A. Evans says:
August 4, 2012 at 3:21 pm
As it’s open thread, can anyone point me to a free replacement for Flash & PDF reader that integrate with Firefox on WinDoze?
—————————————————————————
Hi David,
Can’t help with Flash but for a PDF Reader try Foxit Reader. There’s another free program I use called PDFill which creates PDF documents by setting itself up as a “Printer”. Both work really well. I’m running them under XP.
Regards,
Lodger
Re:David A. Evans says:
August 4, 2012 at 3:21 pm
As it’s open thread, can anyone point me to a free replacement for Flash & PDF reader that integrate with Firefox on WinDoze?
I cannot help you with Flash, but I use Foxit reader as a PDF Reader. I like it alot.
http://www.foxitsoftware.com/Secure_PDF_Reader/
It’s free too. I like free.
One of the stupidest pieces of climate alarmism reaches one of the stupidest net outlets:
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/climate-change-blame-extreme-heat-nasa-scientist-205959260.html
Lucy Skywalker,
David A. Evans
You may like this 1 hour time lapse video of Akiane doing one of her paintings. It’s an hour long but it will not feel like an hour.
p.s., Dave, I am pleasantly surprised that you remember my name. I remember the days of you, Jan, and I commenting on YouTube. That was back before I ever heard there was a WattsUpWithThat.
I often think that things are potentially worse than people realise. Not slow climate change but the potential for abrupt and non linear change. Changes in temperature of 10’s of degrees in places in as little as a decade. A report was published a decade ago by the US National Academy of Sciences – Abrupt climate change: inevitable surprises – that describes this as the new climate paradigm. But it is a paradigm that is making slow progress despite support in scientific literature, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, the Royal Society…
So where might some of these surprises come from? To quote AR4 section 3.4.4.1. ‘In summary, although there is independent evidence for decadal changes in TOA radiative fluxes over the last two decades, the evidence is equivocal. Changes in the planetary and tropical TOA radiative fluxes are consistent with independent global ocean heat-storage data, and are expected to be dominated by changes in cloud radiative forcing. To the extent that they are real, they may simply reflect natural low-frequency variability of the climate system.’ The earlier satellite data is most reliably ERBS and ISCCP-FD. It shows cooling in the infrared and warming in the short wave – that (if real) must arise as a result of change in cloud cover.
Here is a relationship from Wong et al (2006) – Reexamination of the Observed Decadal Variability of the Earth Radiation Budget. Using Altitude-Corrected ERBE/ERBS Nonscanner WFOV Data – between ocean heat content from sea level measurements and net ERBS data.
It is a pretty good fit. But it is all just data and as good as the instruments and modelling.
We also have CERES – clouds and Earth’s radiant energy system – measuring Earth’s radiant energy out in reflected sw and emitted lw with unprecedented accuracy. It shows that there is some missing energy that should be there in the Earth system when considering the lack of tropospheric warming last decade. Again the big change is in SW. The interannual changes are largely related to ENSO and might provide one clue as to a source of ‘low frequency variability of the climate system.’
http://s1114.photobucket.com/albums/k538/Chief_Hydrologist/?action=view¤t=CERES-BAMS-2008-with-trend-lines1.gif
More recent work is identifying abrupt climate changes working through the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode, the Artic Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole and other measures of ocean and atmospheric states. These are measurements of sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure over more than 100 years which show evidence for abrupt change to new climate conditions that persist for up to a few decades before shifting again. Global rainfall and flood records likewise show evidence for abrupt shifts and regimes that persist for decades. In Australia, less frequent flooding from early last century to the mid 1940’s, more frequent flooding to the late 1970’s and again a low rainfall regime to recent times.
Anastasios Tsonis, of the Atmospheric Sciences Group at University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, and colleagues used a mathematical network approach to analyse abrupt climate change on decadal timescales. Ocean and atmospheric indices – in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation – can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of climate variability. Tsonis and colleagues calculated the ‘distance’ between the indices. It was found that they would synchronise at certain times and then shift into a new state.
It is no coincidence that shifts in ocean and atmospheric indices occur at the same time as changes in the trajectory of global surface temperature. Our ‘interest is to understand – first the natural variability of climate – and then take it from there. So we were very excited when we realized a lot of changes in the past century from warmer to cooler and then back to warmer were all natural,’ Tsonis said.
‘While in the observations such breaks in temperature trend are clearly superimposed upon a century time-scale warming presumably due to anthropogenic forcing, those breaks result in significant departures from that warming over time periods spanning multiple decades. Using a new measure of coupling strength, this update shows that these climate modes have recently synchronized, with synchronization peaking in the year 2001/02. This synchronization has been followed by an increase in coupling. This suggests that the climate system may well have shifted again, with a consequent break in the global mean temperature trend from the post 1976/77 warming to a new period (indeterminate length) of roughly constant global mean temperature.’ (Swanson et al 2009 – Has the climate recently shifted)
Muller’s simple superposition of CO2 with temperature is too simple. ‘Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler. Albert Einstein
I got into a bit of a debate on the Planet 3.0 website. Some of the debate is still there as I write this. It will likely be deleted though.
The blogmeister started treating me as a typical moron until I asked how Hansen called the current events as being clearly caused by global warming because it had never happened before. When it did in the 1930s.
Then he showed me a chart that reflected the anomalies since 1971 – which is of course, fallacious.
He deleted my subsequent response that pointed this out. So I sent him this message:
I note you deleted my final comment in which I pointed out that Hansen attributed Global Warming as the cause of the droughts and that data is gamed – only data that fits the scam is ever presented – even a childlike figure like me can see that fallacy. And when the data don’t fit, you omit or worse, fudge..
You presented a graph that showed the recent weather events as anomalies since 1971 – this is of course ridiculous, as 1971 was a very cold year. If you had gone back to 1901, then the 1930s heat – which was before CO2 growth would have messed up your presentation – would have destroyed his argument. If you had gone back to 1001 you would have reflected the medieval warming period, which would again, have disproved the point you make your living with.
Like Hansen and Mann, you guys are unwilling to defend your positions, because they are indefensible.
There is a game afoot and the game is gamed.
Did anyone notice the stuff on the Eocene warming, indicating that the Antarctic was tropical and never fell below 10 degrees C even during the winter? Long time ago of course, but some interesting stuff nevertheless. Not least of which, there appears to have been very little temperature gradient between the Equator and the poles, and despite there being no polar ice, there was still plenty of land about. WUWT?
You deserve a break… fighting the establishment is hard, HARD work
Bill Tuttle says:August 4, 2012 at 3:06 pm
… I foresee a PETA market for little, tiny trauma kits…
It’s already there. Frogs’ Legs with Rice don’t just happen by themselves, you know. Little, tiny, pairs of crutches, how sad.
Smokey:
I have recommended you for Politically Correct Person of the Year.
There is a slight chance though that you may not be awarded the title. Thanks for the laughs!
Graeme No.3,
Thanks… but there is NO chance that I would get that title!☺
Foxit Reader Caveat lector.
As with the previous version, the setup process is a bit cumbersome. First, watch out for the two check boxes that make Ask your browser default search provider and Ask.com your home page. Opt out as necessary. Then, toward the end of the installation process, be sure to read carefully and opt out of the Addin for Mozilla FireFox, Opera, Safari and Chrome–unless, of course, you’re into bloated toolbars. Once you make it through the installation gauntlet, the rest should be smooth sailing.
http://download.cnet.com/Foxit-Reader/3000-10743_4-10313206.html
Smokey
4, 5, 19
@Smokey–Hilarious! Loved Click4…
Smokey politically correct? No. Spot on. Yes.
Try VLC. I switch off its default status for audio files, etc., but it does a decent job with Flash.
clipe says:
August 4, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Time to keep an eye on Ernesto?
Tracking #Ernesto, 91L off Southeast Florida, and #Florence in the eastern Atlantic.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 342 (Irene), in Florida: 2476 (Wilma)
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
August 4, 2012 at 12:54 pm
——————————————–
Amazing. Thanks.