There’s a lot of hype out there regarding the drought and its potential effects on crops. Predictions range from increased food prices to dustbowlification”, a term coined by “Joe Romm. A complicit media follows. Tom Nelson points out some interesting facts:
Drought to cost $12B, most since 1988 – USATODAY.com
The Kiwis think otherwise though, from radio New Zealand: July 26, 2012 : Worst drought in 50 years driving up US food prices
Food prices in the United States are expected to rise by 3% or 4% next year because of the worst drought in more than 50 years. Corn, soybean and other commodity prices have all soared in recent weeks as fields dry out and crops wither in the heat. The drought, which is affecting much of the Midwest, is the worst since 1956.
What Drought Did to Crop Yields in the 1930s – Livinghistory.com
In 1930, Nebraska got 22 inches of rain, and the state’s corn crop averaged 25 bushels per acre. In 1934, Nebraska saw the driest year on record with only 14.5 inches of rainfall. The state’s corn crop dropped even more to only 6.2 bushels per acre.
[See table 1 here: For five Nebraska locations, median forecasted yields for rainfed corn are 118-130 bushels per acre; for irrigated corn, the median forecasted yields are 228-245 bushels per acre]
From the University of Nebraska-Lincoln:
End-of-Season Yield Potentials as of July 15
Corn Yield Potential (Yp) forecasts, as well as the underpinning data used for the simulations, can be seen in Table 1. The long-term yield potential prediction based on 30 years of weather data (Table 1, fourth column from the right) is compared to the range of predicted 2012 corn yield potential (three columns on the right), which includes the yield potential simulated under the most likely scenario of weather expected for the rest of the season (median) and for relatively favorable and unfavorable scenarios for the rest of the season (75th and 25th percentiles) based on historical weather data.
According to the July 15 simulations, the “most likely” end-of-season dryland corn yield potential in Nebraska, Iowa, and southeastern Illinois (“median” yields, red column in Table 1) is 10% to 26% below the long-term average yield potential (Table 1). Even if weather turns favorable for dryland corn during the rest of the 2012 season, the resulting yields (75th yields, blue column in Table 1) are still likely to be below the long-term average (Table 1). How about if dry and hot conditions persist? Certainly the likehood and magnitude of yield reduction in dryland corn will increase. In fact, Hybrid-Maize predicts dryland corn yield potential to be about 30% to 40% below the long-term average if weather remains hot and dry for the rest of the season (25th yields, green column in Table 1). The only bright spots in this analysis were in Illinois at DeKalb and Monmouth where rainfall during the past two weeks appears to have provided relief. At these sites, current projects indicate that end-of-season yields will be near their long-term averages unless weather once again turns dry and hot at those locations (Table 1). Likewise, recent weather conditions at Brookings, S.D. have been conducive to achieve yields near the long-term average.
What about irrigated corn in Nebraska? Contrary to the projections for dryland corn, irrigated corn yield potential is only two to three bushels below the long-term average at Holdrege, Mead, and Concord (Table 1). High nighttime temperatures during the last two weeks at Clay Center have hastened crop development and increased nighttime respiration costs, leading to a projected yield potential that is 9 bushels below the long-term average. At O’Neill last week’s weather did not depart from historical temperature norms, hence, projected yield potential is still near-average. But it is important to keep in mind that if hot weather persists for the rest of the season, the likehood (and magnitude) of below-average yields will increase for irrigated corn due to more rapid maturation and a shorter grain-filling period.
Summary
Projected 2012 end-of-season yields are well below the long-term yield average for dryland corn in Nebraska, Iowa, and southeastern Illinois and near average in South Dakota and central-west Illinois. Projected yield for irrigated corn in Nebraska is slightly below average at most locations, except for Clay Center, which it’s 9 bushels below average and O’Neill where it’s near average. If hot, dry conditions persist during coming weeks, we expect projected yields will drop substantially under both dryland and irrigated conditions. We will continue to update these projections as the season progresses.
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The reality check is: Even with the bad news of reduced yields of regular corn at 22-42 bu/ac below average, and trrigated corn at 2-9 bu/ac below average, 2012 Nebraska corn yields are still forecasted to be 20-40 times the 1934 Nebraska corn yields.
Yes it was really so much worse in the 1930’s than the present:
h/t to Steve Goddard and this EPA report for the above graph and points.
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Like a couple of other readers, I think this statement
“The reality check is: Even with the bad news of reduced yields of regular corn at 22-42 bu/ac below average, and trrigated corn at 2-9 bu/ac below average, 2012 Nebraska corn yields are still forecasted to be 20-40 times the 1934 Nebraska corn yields.”
is a poor one to make. Trying to make comparisons to crop [yields] between the 30’s and today sounds a lot like some of the poorly reasoned claims we hear from CAGW advocates. While I understand the frustration over ill informed media hyping a weather condition and trying to milk it for all the global warming PR they can, presenting poor counterpoints is a fail.
Crispin – please address your concerns about quantificaton and validity of nighttime heat to the author of the blog entry. I simply quoted the Key Points block at the bottom of the entry “The recent period of increasing heat is distinguished by a rise in extremely high nighttime temperatures.” I too would like to know how much hotter it has gotten at night.
Chris says:
July 26, 2012 at 8:51 am
Larry Ledwick (hotrod) says:
July 26, 2012 at 9:52 am
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The background is white. Sometimes, people get linked into an imageshack chart that has a black background. Try a search of the image through google images. Anyone else having a problem seeing it.
…and a policy of increasing the cost of energy, the cost of transportation, the cost of labor, the cost of restrictive regulation is also a price factor of supply/demand.
Dairy production is a good example of over-regulating.
Food cost in January 2002
http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/Publications/FoodPlans/2002/CostofFoodJan02.pdf
Food cost in January 2012
http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/Publications/FoodPlans/2012/CostofFoodJan2012.pdf
Conservatively a 137% increase for monthly family of four.
Price increase of fuel in 10 years over 200%.
http://www.neo.ne.gov/statshtml/96.htm
Jan 2002 $1.23
Jan 2012 $3.79
Increase in unemployment in 10 years over 200%
The whole issue of tonnage production during “droughts” seems pale.
High yields in the past have resulted in spite of bad news. What you can count on is the farmers producing the highest yield possible.
philincalifornia says:
July 26, 2012 at 9:47 am
Gail, I’m a little confused with your post here and your posts on the recent corn/bioethanol thread.
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Sorry to confuse. I was trying to point out there is more than one factor contributing and the News Media focuses on only on the one factor that pleases their ‘financial interests’. From what I can see you have:
#1. WTO (1995) did away with import tariffs on grain by third world countries. (WTO Agreement on Ag Written by VP of Cargill Dan Amstutz)
#2. Freedom to Farm bill (1996) essentially did away with the practice of grain reserves and increased the acres put into grain by the USA. (Written by VP of Cargill Dan Amstutz)
#3. Biofuel opened another market for grain. (ADM biggest all time political contributor to Dems & Reps scored big in biofuel)
#4. The financial traders got into the act with commodity price speculative gambling. (Dan Amstutz was hired by Goldman Sachs who created the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index in 1991 and made a killing in 2008)
#5. The Government – Corporate – Lobbyist revolving door that make sure laws and regs are advantageous to the big corporations and not the consumers or small businessmen.
#6. The Mass Media knows who funds their advertising budget and who owns their loans. See Derry Brownfield
Like the earth’s climate, the machiavellian game playing in the Ag sector is much more convoluted than most people realize and the MSM makes sure only the news that is “advantages” reaches the masses.
I wonder how many innocent dupes are sinking money into the commodities market thinking the world grain harvest is going to be poor thanks to this and other stories?
Can you see the dual purpose of the story now?
Farm Futures has this :Jul 19, 2012 story: Drought’s Intensity is Impressive on Satellite Imagery yet my area (see image 2 & 3), mid NC is not particularly dry. Actually except for a ten day stretch the rain has been better than normal for summer and my grass is growing well as are my neighbors corn fields.
Farm Futures also has Quick Quotes on the commodities market.
Notice how no one mentions this from the USDA
(Bolding added above by me)
A) Ever drive along I-40 west of Memphis? Those small V-shaped roofed awnings over what look like V-8 engines connected to dynamos are actually pumps (pumping ground water by the looks of it)
B) The Mississippi is low this year … in times of drought, the rivers would seem to be affected too (mild sarc) …
C) Notice in the lead post the reference at one point to “for irrigated corn”; obviously, someone is irrigating some corn … but to irrigate _all_ corn, or at least have the facilities in place to irrigate all corm BUT have those facilities stand idle most years doe not seem to appeal to the economical ‘sense’ of those raising corn …
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@Dave
Another triumph for the blogosphere over ‘pal review’!. And it shows that they read – and are frightened by – what we write. As well as exposing their poverty of their ‘quality control’.
Dave says:
July 26, 2012 at 10:36 am
Map appears to be fixed on the source site
Nope, click on “see larger version” PDF link.
Fred Bauer says:
July 26, 2012 at 6:29 am
How seriously should we take the University Nebraska-Lincoln if they can’t tell Indiana from Ohio?
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At least they didn’t call Michigan Ohio.
What everyone seems to be missing here is that the prices of quite a number products will go up significantly as a result of this expected corn yield, including energy prices (ethanol). That won’t hit till late this year and next year. Trade balance will take a hit, and there may be riots in 3rd world countries over the prices. Some companies and commodity players will make a lot of money, and some will lose a lot of money.
Most farmers will not suffer as a result of the lower yield due to govt. insurance ( perhaps $4 billion total insurance claims ).
It will become a plank in the current election, and will give ammo to the “save the planet” contingent.
I’m a little worried about these folks. They make claims about “southeastern Illinois”, but the map of places sampled has southern Illinois totally chopped off, and no stars for simulated sampled locations in, you know, “southeastern Illinois” (ditto the locations in the table). There’s still a lot of corn country south of Springfield and Decatur, and quite a bit in Missouri, Indiana and Ohio, for that matter. And then they have Indiana labeled as OHio. Their “simulations” of the bread-basket are definitely flawed.
Ah, yes, the U of Nebraska site at least has the label for INdiana corrected.
http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/wheat-prices-are-good—-for-those-with/article_783971c6-8e8e-55fd-81d3-a42d46aaf207.html
Wheat prices are good… for those with a crop
“Protein levels in the winter wheat rolling into Moore vary from 9% in areas near Jordan, where late rains hurt crop quality, to 17% where dry, hot weather ahead of harvest drove up protein and increased crop value. It’s the high protein level that makes Montana wheat sought after worldwide for pasta.”
There is some evidence that increased atmospheric CO2 can make plants more drought resistant but in the research I have seen, it requires much higher concentrations than are currently seen in the atmosphere.
In the 30’s farmers were still using horses, and the rule of thumb for corn was “knee high by the fourth of July.” Now most corn fields are over your head by the fourth, and other than a little ethanol and biodiesel the horsepower is fossil based. No need to dedicate part of the farm to provide feed for the horses.
“…BUT have those facilities stand idle most years does not seem to appeal to the economical ‘sense’ of those raising corn.”
However, they who do not irrigate enough or not at all sure like to make economic claim for federal relief and subsidies. Why invest…just get some “free” money. And by the way, central Washington receives about 7 – 10 inches of rain per year. Those corn rows and other row crops are ALL irrigated and the equipment lies idle between harvest and the next planting.
Idaho and Washington potatoes are all irrigated. Never here chat about drought stricken crops. How about those grapes? No irrigation plan… fewer grapes.
Just pointing to different culture of thinking between those poor corn belt drought stricken farms in the mid-west. That goes for the tobacco industry as well. What a lobby of friends they must have.
Invest in an irrigation infrastructure. We can’t eat bail outs.
@Curious George who said: “Most farmers will not suffer as a result of the lower yield due to govt. insurance ( perhaps $4 billion total insurance claims ).”
That is not true. The insurance program only covers a portion of the average yield of the farm or tract. The insurance payment will not nearly cover the cost of inputs. Also, less than 60% of the corn farmers buy the insurance. The insurance cannot be purchased retroactively.
The drought will devastate an enormous number of corn farmers, especially those who cash rent their production acres. It will also hurt seed producers, elevators, seasonal employees, machinery manufacturers and dealers, etc., etc.
Here’s the rub: same farmers/corporations/farming companies are ‘betting’ on an easy return (I’ll spell it out: some ppl/orgs simply put a crop in the ground and hope there is return, if there is, a cheap bet just paid off); we aren’t hurting for foodstuffs or the raw feedstock for other uses … as a poster Larry Ledwick/hotrod up-thread pointed out, other areas of the country are producing/reaping a harvest (or will be shortly) for foodstuffs (or feedstock for other use).
It would help to understand the economic ‘bets’/gambles some of these people/companies (doing or engaged in) farming make, rather than make ‘blanket’ prescriptions for across the board cures … if you ‘push’ for national irrigation infrastructure, I’m afraid you’re going to get national government (as opposed to private investment/problem solution) involved with a lot of taxpayer money mis-managed, mis-spent with the usual overall waste and inefficiency of government …
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_Jim says:
July 26, 2012 at 3:56 pm
….It would help to understand the economic ‘bets’/gambles some of these people/companies (doing or engaged in) farming make, rather than make ‘blanket’ prescriptions for across the board cures … if you ‘push’ for national irrigation infrastructure, I’m afraid you’re going to get national government (as opposed to private investment/problem solution) involved with a lot of taxpayer money mis-managed, mis-spent with the usual overall waste and inefficiency of government …
____________________________________
I am with you on that _Jim. I do not think city people understand just how much land 96.4 million acres (150,625 sq miles) of corn , 76.1 million acres (118,906 sq miles) of soybeans , and 56 million acres (97,500 sq miles) of wheat really is. Farmers irrigate veggie and fruit crops because they are high dollar/low volume (Think California). It is easier to plant the correct crop varieties for your area instead.
The other problem is water. If there is a drought your farm pond, use for irrigating, is down sometimes to nothing but mud and you sure as heck are not going to use your well water. During the last drought I was supplying water to three other families because I had the only decent well on the top of the ridge where I live. The streams were dry and the river was rocks with puddles because all the water was supplying the city reservoirs. And those reservoirs were down about three feet from the normal shoreline. Needless to say there was a ‘hose pipe’ ban. For what it is worth my grasses (carefully chosen for drought resistance) made it through the drought just fine but my neighbors had to replant their pastures of Kentucky 31 fescue.
Ms. Combs is so correct. The media dire reports are 99% scam to manipulate the commodities futures market. Best investor strategy: short corn while the prices are astronomical. That’s what the big boys are doing. Don’t worry about $5 ears, because that’s NOT going to happen.
The July USDA Crop Report – the one that was issued after their downgrade of the current crop – showed:
Even after the downgrade, which was before the recent rains in much of the corn belt, the estimated corn crop is projected to be 12,720 million bushels, almost exactly the same as 2011 and 2010′s 12,358 and 12,447 respectively.
Corn used for ethanol was 5,021 million/bushels in 2010, 5,050 in 2011, and was originally projected at 5,450 for 2012. Current projection is 4,900 million bushels – 150 million bushels less than last year.
The USDA reports also show the US remains the largest corn exporter in the world – by a huge margin – in 2011 and 2012 we provided 41% of the total corn export for the world – the next closest are Argentina and the Ukraine at 14-16% each.
Mexico is the largest beneficiary of our exports – we’ve increased our export to Mexico of White Corn – which is the real “food” corn for them – from 229 to 581 million metric tonnes – over 2.5 times more food corn went to Mexico from 2005 to 2010/11
That said, the US is experiencing stiff price competition for corn – as noted above. Argentina and others are priced significantly less than the US.
Again – the current estimated 2012 corn crop is nearly identical to 2010 and 2011 – the claim that there will be huge shortages causing big prices increases is not based in fact. And the last few days rains and the cooler temps at least in upper Midwest, will IMO increase the yields well above the lower estimate from USDA.
Yeah, I noticed that, too. How did Wyoming migrate up to the Great Lakes? And when did Ohio annex Indiana? All this “Change” business is going way too far; it’s downright disorienting!
india sitting on 75 million tons of foodgrain stocks….come buy some before it goes to waste
Larry Ledwick (hotrod) says: July 26, 2012 at 9:52 am
Bill Illis says:July 26, 2012 at 7:34 am
Changed both charts to grey background:
http://i49.tinypic.com/2w6do9y.jpg raw corn/wheat prices
http://i47.tinypic.com/14uygi8.jpg CPI adjusted prices
The originals did have a white background, however neither axis labeling came through in simply copying the image…weird. Had to use a screen capture to get the pics with the axis’ labels.
I’d like to know if my charts are not coming through properly. I post alot of them and it takes awhile to put them together. They look fine on the three computers I use.
The wheat and corn prices chart show that real prices have generally been declining over time, but not that much. They go up primarily during War years (very clear), or periods of supply problems such as the early 1800s cold period, the Russian crop failures in the early 1970s, the ethanol mandate in the US/economic growth in Asia.