A little tale to illustrate how alarmism works.
Story submitted by WUWT reader Andre Bijkerk
Tribe wizard:
“Dear tribe, I have returned from my long and dangerous quest for the truth and on the mountain top, I have found out why the river stays frozen and the land white, although the sun is high and the moon is old. Friends, it’s a very serious matter. There are strange and powerful creatures who call themselves gods.”
Old sceptic tribe idiot:
“That’s baloney, been there long time ago. Nobody is there, just barren rock.”
Tribe wizard:
“Don’t listen to that fool, dear tribe. These creatures only show themselves to the chosen ones like me. Anybody else cannot see them. And they are in anger as our tribe has displeased them and they are punishing us with casting the cold spell.”
Old sceptic tribe idiot:
“Nonsense, we had severe winters when I was young. It’s just natural variability”
(crowd murmers)
Tribe wizard:
“Quiet, quiet, don’t listen people, he is paid by the firewood companies. Luckily I have managed to calm down those gods and they promised, if I bring them all our goodies, that they will bring the summer back and the globe will warm again”.
Old sceptic tribe idiot:
“Baloney, if you give him all your goodies, you will just die sooner and nothing will change the natural course.”
Tribe wizard:
“Thou dreadful denier, how dare you risking future of our tribe, no, even the end of the world by calling upon us the wrath of the gods? Ban him! Ban him!
And thus the old sceptic tribe idiot was gone, the tribe wizard returned to the mountain with the goodies and sure enough it worked, the summer returned and the tribe knew for a fact that the gods of the mountains needed to be kept satisfied or the world would come to an end.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” – Mark Twain
Some interesting references to give it a scientific hue:
Mercier and Sperber 2010, Why do humans reason? BEHAVIORAL AND BRAIN SCIENCES (2010) 34, 57–111 doi:10.1017 /S0140525X10000968
(we argue to win and dominate others, not to find the truth).
Moral Panic: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_panic
Moral enterpreneurs: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_entrepreneur
Folk devils: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folk_devil
Excellent!
Re Gail Combs @ur momisugly 3:59
I don’t usually bother to reply to the politically-oriented comments, but how about the whole quotation?
“If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business, you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen. The Internet didn’t get invented on its own. Government research created the Internet so that all the companies could make money off the Internet.
The point is, is that when we succeed, we succeed because of our individual initiative, but also because we do things together. There are some things, just like fighting fires, we don’t do on our own. I mean, imagine if everybody had their own fire service. That would be a hard way to organize fighting fires.
So we say to ourselves, ever since the founding of this country, you know what, there are some things we do better together. That’s how we funded the GI Bill. That’s how we created the middle class. That’s how we built the Golden Gate Bridge or the Hoover Dam. That’s how we invented the Internet. That’s how we sent a man to the moon. We rise or fall together as one nation and as one people, and that’s the reason I’m running for president — because I still believe in that idea. You’re not on your own, we’re in this together.”
A story of global warming
[snip . . looks like a double clip and paste . . kbmod]
Once upon a time, thousands of years ago there was clan of cavemen. The whole clan lived together in a cave and spent all their available hours hunting and gathering to keep from starving.
On day, while out hunting and gathering on his own, one of the clan members, Al, came across some strange tracks at the edge of the clan’s hunting area.. He wasn’t sure what they were from but they seamed really BIG. Young Al thought about it for awhile and decided that these tracks could be from the dreaded Saber toothed tiger.
Al had never actually seen a saber toothed tiger nor had he ever seen their tracks. But, thought Al, what else could the tracks be from?
Al rushed back to the clan cave to tell the others of what he had discovered. To young Al’s surprise most of the clan didn’t seem too concerned. Al said “ we need to take precautions to keep the saber toothed tiger from killing us” “ We need to build a high fence around our camp to keep the tiger out.”
To this the clan elders said “ Sorry Al, we don’t have time to stop hunting and gathering to build a fence. We have to hunt and gather every waking hour just to keep alive. We don’t have time to waste on fences to keep out a tiger that probably doesn’t even exist”.
“ But”, Cried Al” I saw the tracks, there may even be lots of saber toothed tigers about . I can’t be sure how many tracks I saw”
The clan elders sat young Al down and tried to explain things to him.
“First”, they said, “ You don’t know what those tracks were from. Could be from a big fluffy dog named Rex. Second, nobody around here has ever even seen a saber toothed tiger. We don’t even know if they still exist. Thirdly, Even if they do exist, we don’t know that they would hurt us. Fourthly, Even if all you said was true, we don’t know that a fence would keep the tiger out.”
“ Tell you what, You go out and get some really good solid information and we will re-visit the issue”
Well, young Al didn’t like that response. He vowed to do whatever he could to save his clan. Al went back and took a second look at the tracks he had found. The tracks had been trampled over by other animals and were hard to distinguish. Now it seemed to him there were many more tracks than he first thought. Maybe the tracks of a HUNDRED tigers. He also saw something that looked like a spot of blood. Probably from an eaten member of a neighboring clan. Also, he was able to calculate that the tiger was at least 10 feet tall. So now he had his proof. There were over a hundred tigers. They were ten feet tall and they loved to eat cave dwellers.
“ Now they will have to believe me and build that fence.” Thought Al.
When young Al went to the clan elders and explained of his very scientific findings he was very surprised that they still refused to stop hunting and gathering and build a fence.
A Tiger named AL
A story of global warming
Once upon a time, thousands of years ago there was clan of cavemen. The whole clan lived together in a cave and spent all their available hours hunting and gathering to keep from starving.
On day, while out hunting and gathering on his own, one of the clan members, Al, came across some strange tracks at the edge of the clan’s hunting area.. He wasn’t sure what they were from but they seamed really BIG. Young Al thought about it for awhile and decided that these tracks could be from the dreaded Saber toothed tiger.
Al had never actually seen a saber toothed tiger nor had he ever seen their tracks. But, thought Al, what else could the tracks be from?
Al rushed back to the clan cave to tell the others of what he had discovered. To young Al’s surprise most of the clan didn’t seem too concerned. Al said “ we need to take precautions to keep the saber toothed tiger from killing us” “ We need to build a high fence around our camp to keep the tiger out.”
To this the clan elders said “ Sorry Al, we don’t have time to stop hunting and gathering to build a fence. We have to hunt and gather every waking hour just to keep alive. We don’t have time to waste on fences to keep out a tiger that probably doesn’t even exist”.
“ But”, Cried Al” I saw the tracks, there may even be lots of saber toothed tigers about . I can’t be sure how many tracks I saw”
The clan elders sat young Al down and tried to explain things to him.
“First”, they said, “ You don’t know what those tracks were from. Could be from a big fluffy dog named Rex. Second, nobody around here has ever even seen a saber toothed tiger. We don’t even know if they still exist. Thirdly, Even if they do exist, we don’t know that they would hurt us. Fourthly, Even if all you said was true, we don’t know that a fence would keep the tiger out.”
“ Tell you what, You go out and get some really good solid information and we will re-visit the issue”
Well, young Al didn’t like that response. He vowed to do whatever he could to save his clan. Al went back and took a second look at the tracks he had found. The tracks had been trampled over by other animals and were hard to distinguish. Now it seemed to him there were many more tracks than he first thought. Maybe the tracks of a HUNDRED tigers. He also saw something that looked like a spot of blood. Probably from an eaten member of a neighboring clan. Also, he was able to calculate that the tiger was at least 10 feet tall. So now he had his proof. There were over a hundred tigers. They were ten feet tall and they loved to eat cave dwellers.
“ Now they will have to believe me and build that fence.” Thought Al.
When young Al went to the clan elders and explained of his very scientific findings he was very surprised that they still refused to stop hunting and gathering and build a fence.
When Al came back the next day and told the elders that he was now sure that there were a THOUSAND tigers and that they were 25 feet tall they still weren’t convinced. In fact they seemed even less convinced.
That’s when he knew what he had to do. He packed his bags and headed to Copenhagen. If those stupid clan elders wouldn’t believe him, He’d talk directly to Obama. That will get some action. Maybe even a few hundred million of those new paper dollars he keeps hearing about. Al wasn’t going to let no tiger cause any GORE in his cave.
Hey, Al thought as he headed for his private jet, He would need a last name when he got to Copenhagen. Maybe that would make a good last name, “Tiger”, He would be: “ Al Tiger” That would be a COOL name.
“””””…..Skeptic Tank says:
July 19, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Chuck says:
July 19, 2012 at 12:26 pm
My brain must be defective. I argue to find the truth. I have no desire to dominate others.
That’s because you don’t care what other people do, as long as it has no practical impact on you. But there are people who do care how others live, what lifestyle choices we make and they have very strong opinions about it. They use “Butterfly Effect” arguments that anything you do could impact them and, therefore, they should have a say in how you live……”””””
Well in some civilized countries, they hold to the principle that each is innocent until proven guilty.
So anyone who wants to tell me how to live, is welcome to present his PROOF that “how I have lived” HAS NEGATIVELY impacted “his/er” life; and include in that proof how his/er own lifestyle has NOT had ANY adverse effect on his/er life, commensurate with any attributable to me; nor has had ANY adverse effect on MY life.
Other than that I don’t care how you live (legally).
“””””…….Gail Combs says:
July 19, 2012 at 3:59 pm
David L. Hagen says:
July 19, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Remember when you use some of that firewood or goodies:
“If you’ve been successful, you didn’t get there on your own,”
“If you’ve got a business, you didn’t build that — somebody else made that happen.”
Obama 2012
Said the Community Organizer who would not know what it takes to run a business or how to even split firewood if his life depended on it…..”””””
And Gail, I’m betting that YOU did not miss, that the community organizer could not help starting his first public comments on the most recent tragedy, by saying WE are all one community, in this together. I had nothing to do with it.
Good story. Sound like the “Regression to the Mean Falacy” at work. http://www.fallacyfiles.org/regressf.html
Howzaboutthat says (July 20, 2012 at 6:28 am): [snip]
If your purpose in extending Zero’s quote was to make him look worse, you’ve succeeded. He conspicuously left parents off the list of helpers and failed to mention that taxpayers, not the moochers he favors, paid for the roads, bridges, dams, and internet. Contrary to the President’s assertion, the businessmen and workers who paid the taxes jolly well did “build that”!
So basically all you’ve done is reveal the full depth of his incompetence. Well done.