NOTE: Poll closes at 12PM PST, Thursday, July 5th.
First, in case you missed it over the weekend, the WUWT Sea Ice page has gone through an upgrade. A number of new graphs and data sources were added that should be helpful in this sea ice poll. Details here.
For now a look at the JAXA sea ice extent. The plot is below:
Here’s a different version, including trend lines for the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s Averages, as well as for the three years with the lowest minimums since 1979, 2007, 2011 and 2008:
Note the 2012 plot isn’t far from the 2011 and 2007 plots at this point.Bering Sea Ice Area reached a record high this year, and that extra ice may well come into play later in the melt season.
The NSIDC extent data is used as the reference for the ARCUS sea ice outlook minimum determination, so I suggest you use it to base your best guesses:
Last month reader poll figured 4.9 million square kilometers. This month I think a lower value might be more representative. My personal forecast is now 4.7 million sq kilometers. Here’s the poll, pick one value for the summer 2012 minimum extent, expected in late September:
4.4
The 2012 curve matches the 2010 curve pretty well – and since I don’t see any strong evidence of an unusual change in the overall condition of Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, climate, etc.- I expect it’ll be about the same as it has been in recent years.
Winds will not drive free ice together raising 15% coverage threshold. “Improved” resolution of measurement techniques will bias the threshold lower. It is a low ice summer. 4.6 million if only to “prove” the imminent loss of the polar ice cap.
http://www.jaxa.jp/countdown/f21/live/img/shizuku_seaice_120704.jpg
2012 is tracking 2007 and concentrations are lower in 2012.
“The ice extent recorded for 30 June 2012 of 9.59 million square kilometers (3.70 million square miles) would not normally be expected until July 21, based on 1979-2000 averages. This puts extent decline THREE WEEKS ahead of schedule.”
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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Not looking good, folks.