by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The U.S. lower-48 surface temperature anomaly from my population density-adjusted (PDAT) dataset was 1.26 deg. C above the 1973-2012 average for May 2012, with a 1973-2012 linear warming trend of +0.14 deg. C/decade (click for full-size version):
The corresponding USHCN anomaly computed relative to the same base period was +1.65 deg. C, with nearly double my warming trend (+0.27 deg. C/decade). The warming of the USHCN relative to my dataset shows that most of the discrepancy arises during the 1996-98 period:
Despite the weaker warming trend in my dataset, Spring 2012 still ranks as the warmest spring since the beginning of my record (1973). The 12-month period ending in May 2012 is also the warmest 12-month period in the record.
Due to a lack of station data and uncertainties regarding urban heat island (UHI) effects, I have no opinion on how the recent warmth compares to, say, the 1930s. There is also no guarantee that my method for UHI adjustment since 1973 has done a sufficient job of removing UHI effects. A short description of the final procedure I settled on for population density adjustment of the surface temperatures can be found here.
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Interesting and timely post.
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Frosty says:
June 8, 2012 at 9:12 pm
Oooo, methane hydrates, blah, blah, blah….
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Oooo, we’re all so scared of those evil methane hydrates…
Frosty – “The whole thing about global warming is that you only need to be wrong once to wipe out 3/4 or more of the life on the planet.”
I thought Al Gore, Hansen, and IPCC/U.N. were for Population Control, so what is the big fuss? 😉
Frosty – “You see, there is this stuff in large reserves in the ocean called methane hydrate that when melted releases methane gas into the atmosphere. The oceans in some areas only need to warm up a few degrees for that to happen.
The Greenie’s and No-drillers should be dancing in the streets; since we will soon have plenty of bio fuel to replace that bad ‘nasty’ oil and bad ‘evil’ coal. 😉
Frosty – “Then we’ll be experiencing what is called an avalanche effect, where temps will rapidly rise regardless of any attempt to reverse them because methane is 3 times the greenhouse gas of CO2.”
Any chance you are a Climatologist running out of AGW funding? 😉
Frosty – “That’s the point where global temps won’t be going up 2-3 degrees on average as with CO2, they will be going up like 15-20.”
With such detailed analysis, solid mathematics, and factual science; you should apply for a position at NASA manufacturing data with Hansen or at Penn State U. pontificating with Mann. 😉
/sarc
DirkH says:
June 9, 2012 at 2:02 am:
It’s more likely that giant flamethrowing lizards come out of the ocean to devastate our cities IMHO.
Great. Now, he’ll *never* go to sleep…
Frosty,
Sorry to hear you are so worried. In actual fact those methane hydrates tend to be down deep, under pressure, and at that depth the water is very cold. It is an area below the thermocline, and the temperature does not change in the manner it does above the thermocline. In fact it likely would take a very long time to even raise the temperature a tenth of a degree. Lastly, if the sea does rise, the pressures down there will increase, and the hydrates will be even less likely to turn to gas.
Back in the early 1970’s there was a big worry about oil running out, due to the prices of gas doubling. It was largely due to politics, however the politics occurred in part because the USA had gone from exporting oil in the 1950’s to importing oil. People spoke with great authority about how soon “peak oil” would be passed (by 1980,) and about the complete disaster that would occur by 2000.
I was as worried by these experts as you now seem to be by methane hydrates. After all, even the National Geographic produced glossy articles with graphs. The only good that came out of my worry was I was able to avoid the bother of getting a real job. Why get a real job, and look forward to a pension, if she s— was going to hit the fan before I was old? I laughed at my friends who worked real jobs, and had a blast.
Now here it is 2012, and my friends are collecting pensions. I’m working my butt off. Oh well…. I can take a joke.
My advice to you is, “Don’t quit your day job.” Also, “Don’t worry; be happy.”
Frosty, if you like cooler climates, come to the Northwest. We continue to experience the cooler wetter temps typical of the current- and after-effects of La Ninas and what appears to be a flipped PDO (going on 5 years now). We are breaking low temp records that go way back (as in 100+ years). This also means, of course that much of the Mid- and Southwest is hot and dry.
But bring money. All the watermellon regulations we are under have pretty much kept our industrial side in the closet. We can’t even shoot a wolf we can actually see chasing our own livestock, let alone manufacture anything up in these parts (let me put that another way, we can’t do those things and advertise that we did those thing).
But let’s also clear up what drives freeze warnings and drought conditions. It’s that big pond out West of us and that monstrous size jet stream above us, not the teeny, tiny bit of anthropogenic CO2 we breath out of our lungs and blow out our tailpipes.
So I guess maybe I have changed my mind. With your current understanding of what drives temperature trends, you probably aren’t at the head of the class in “git er done” industriousness so you had better stay in a state that will take care of you. Out here, we expect people to take care of themselves.
Here is another poor example of doom and gloom reported by mass media with no facts. Notice the cost of events going up with no explanation that population and infrastructure is increasing
http://www.stthomastimesjournal.com/2012/06/09/expert-at-western-university-sees-big-climate-changes-by-2050
Frosty – “The whole thing about global warming is that you only need to be wrong once to wipe out 3/4 or more of the life on the planet.”
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That must be why “The Team” and their enablers are so open and honest with the raw data and their methods. There’s so much at $take!
Frosty – “You see, there is this stuff in large reserves in the ocean called methane hydrate that when melted releases methane gas into the atmosphere.”
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If methane is the real danger then we don’t need to ban CO2, we need to ban beans.
Has not been warm at all in the Pacific Northwest.
Aren’t averages so useful? /sarc
“he U.S. lower-48 surface temperature anomaly from my population density-adjusted (PDAT) dataset was 1.26 deg. C above the 1973-2012 average for May 2012, …”
Excuse me. Whatever happened to Weather is not Climate? You know the AGW Alarmcists response to record setting cold winters.
Steve Sadlow
As long as the AMO and AO are mostly positive [ AMO since 1994/1995] , the Atlantic coast and Eastern US will be warmer than the rest of Northern Hemisphere. No one has an accurate handle on when these are likely to go predominantly negative but the recent trend indicates AMO is slowly heading negative [as it did already for a few months late 2011 and early 2012]
UAH satellite daily temps just set record high point.