UAH Global Temperature Update for May 2012: +0.29°C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for May 2012 (+0.29 °C) changed little from April (+0.30 °C), with some warming to near-average temperatures in the tropics being balanced by a little cooling in the Southern Hemisphere (click on the image for the full-size version):
The 4th order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Here are the monthly stats:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 03 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 04 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 05 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 06 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 07 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 08 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 09 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041
2012 1 -0.089 -0.058 -0.120 -0.137
2012 2 -0.111 -0.014 -0.209 -0.276
2012 3 +0.111 +0.129 +0.094 -0.106
2012 4 +0.299 +0.413 +0.185 -0.117
2012 5 +0.289 +0.439 +0.139 +0.033
As a reminder, the most common reason for large month-to-month swings in global average temperature is small fluctuations in the rate of convective overturning of the troposphere, discussed here.
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HenryP says:
Truly, I do hope that the climate is on this curve:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/orssengo3.png
Study this curve carefully and you will see that around 1994 temps went down (negative/decline) as correctly predicted by me here whereas the green line from the IPCC still wants us to believe that it goes the other way (positive/incline). If the Orssengo curve is correct we will drop a total of about 0.3 or 0.4 degrees C before things turn up again beyond 2030.
\However, Orssengo saw the max. of warming at around 2000, I see it at 1994/5
That means the Orssengo graph must be moved a little to the left?
Henry@Anyone here:
Is Orssengo still alive?
Henry,
there are two general methods to extend the global temperature to the future. One method is curve fitting using simple trigonometric functions (circle functions) or linear functions. The other method is to analyse all the temperature frequencies in the known temperature spectra or reconstructed temperature spectra back in time as they available for many thousand years with short time increments of year or better month.
The latter method takes the nature of the global climate seriously because of the varying global physical heat source. It is not easy to analyse the true frequencies, because FFT analysed frequencies are always sine function frequencies, but if the true time function is not a sine function, because the function is of elliptic nature, the work get astray. This is most important if the nature of the function is like a tide function, because in this case first the frequency is doubled and second it can be happen, that the function shows two or three spike maxima and also two or three spike minima. Such function is known from the global climate periods of about ~900 years of warm climate periods but cold climate periods like the LIA. Both extreme climate times do show more than one spike, but three. It is clear, that a trigonometric gymnastic of one sine or one cosine function as in the first method is not science, because the real data containing the truth of the physical heat source are killed.
The main scientific argument, to take the latter method, is, that the frequency of ~900 years can directed to a real heliocentric tide function of twice the synodic function of two real bodies in our solar system. This is evident, if the function is compared with the well known temperature reconstruction of Eduardo Zorita et. al.
http:/www.volker-doormann.org/images/echo_g_vs_ghi.gif
The genious of this method becomes clear, if all synodic function up the frequencies of Mercury and Earth are added fitted empirical in its magnitude, because the magnitude is not of the nature of Sir Newton’ law. This is also evident, if we compare the sea level oscillations (which are a slave function of the heat source function), with the solar tide function of Mercury/Earth:
http:/www.volker-doormann.org/images/sea_level_vs_solar_tide.gif or
http:/www.volker-doormann.org/images/sea_level_vs_solar_tides_c.gif
The conclusion of this result is that real astronomic synodic tide like functions have a better scientific base as simple trigonometric functions without any connection the a geometric structure in the nature.
Orssengo ist dead.
V.
Volker Doorman says;
One method is curve fitting using simple trigonometric functions (circle functions) or linear functions.
Henry says
I looked at it again. Linear functions are out. No correlation. (typical 0.37)
We should perhaps look at the best type of mathematical fit for all three,
Maxima
Means
Minima
Now, taking the values of the end results of my tables in:
http://www.letterdash.com/henryp/global-cooling-is-here
I find for all three parameters that they best fit into a polynominal of the 2nd order (hyperbolic fit).
Namely, for maxima it is
-0.00005 x2+ 0.00463x -0.06245
r2= 0.995
For means, it is
-0.00011×2 +0.0067 -0.0824
r2=0.954
For minima, it is
-0.00008×2 + 0.00429x – 0.04578
r2= 0.984
This being calculated and most probably largely true, due to the high correlation found,
leaves us with the maxima dropping at a rate of almost -0.13 degree K by 2025
By then, Means are dropping down at a rate of -0.17 degree K.
(remember that for a long time earth “used” its reserves of energy whilst Maxima have been dropping gradually since much earlier)
Altogether, everything still looks scary to me. I cannot believ there is not more research done on this by the universities.
Do you Volker or anyone else have a different scenario for 2025?
Volker, how do you know Orssengo died?
Henry says
leaves us with the maxima dropping at a rate of almost -0.13 degree K by 2025
By then, Means are dropping down at a rate of -0.17 degree K.
Henry says
I mean
leaves us with the maxima dropping at a rate of almost -0.13 degree K by 2025 PER ANNUM
By then, Means are dropping down at a rate of -0.17 degree K PER ANNUM.
HenryP says:
Volker Doorman says;
One method is curve fitting using simple trigonometric functions (circle functions) or linear functions.
Henry says
I looked at it again. Linear functions are out. No correlation. (typical 0.37)
We should perhaps look at the best type of mathematical fit for all three, Maxima, Means, Minima …
Do you Volker or anyone else have a different scenario for 2025?
Volker, how do you know Orssengo died?
Henry,
maybe you have seen the above comparisons of my method with the global temperatures also given by Dr. Roy Spencer in this thread for May 2012:
http://www.volker-doormann.org/images/uah_temp_gl_ghi11.gif
You do say nothing to it, nor to the method, I have explained.
If you think other methods are better, it’s OK. No problem.
Best
V.
Henry@Volker
I did have a look at it and I am impressed with the apparent correlation.. But your prediction only goes to 2014. Can you show it a bit further in the future?
BTW, I am still inclined to stay with the Orssengo curve, meaning (and hoping) that 2025 is the lowest point of cooling. He thought it would be 2030 but it looks to me he was 5 years out. By 2025 the climate on earth will be similar to 1980.
I wonder what he would have said about my results.
HenryP says:
Henry@Volker
I did have a look at it and I am impressed with the apparent correlation. But your prediction only goes to 2014. Can you show it a bit further in the future?
There is the old question, how many black swan must be shown to a sceptic until he is saying: ‘But you have shown only 100 black swan. Can you show some more?’
The question of a sceptic has no scientific relevance; of relevance in science is that, what IS. If you have (only) a few DNA molecules you can multiply them by the PCR method of Kary Mullis. That is no magic.
From this recognition it is more helpful to show other comparisons of the global temperature and 11 added solar tide functions:
http://volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_11_had1960.gif
The question to science is, what mechanism gives heat to the globe, which is in harmony with solar tide functions?
I have calculated all relevant synodic functions from 1950 AD to 2040 AD with time increments of 1 day. But I have also done some investigations in the synodic functions of only four slow running planetary couples between 1 AD and 3000 AD. Because the fast running objects are missed in this addition, the curve shows only long term anomalies in temperature, but still a correlation to the data from Prof. Robert Edwards or E Zorita:
http://volker-doormann.org/images/GHI_11_ghi4_.gif
We must always have in mind, that reconstructed temperature anomalies are not telling the truth in Kelvin and also that there can be local Earth effects, that can bias the isotopic pattern.
Because the first (of three) main peak in high temperature (cycle length ~913 years) has reached its maximum in February 1997, there is a general decreasing of this main function since then until ~2050.
http://volker-doormann.org/images/uah_11_2040.gif
V.