BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012
…SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…32.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI…490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST…FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H…BUT BERYL
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF
BERYL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES IN THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
STORM SURGE…HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THESE TIDES MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING.
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA…GEORGIA…AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM EDT.
Looking at sat and radar….
….a pathetic excuse for a named storm. Sorry.
(Sigh; maybe it will get better)
Don’t forget to turn off your lawn sprinkler….NHC might come and name it.
I could seriously use this assist for the lawn sprinkler. The ponds in the area are all starting to look sad. What we need is a good 4-5 inch rain event to even things out a bit.
exNOAAman – they haven’t come to name my sprinklers yet, but I’ll let you know if it happens.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Board=tb2012&Number=92589&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&fpart=1
The dearth of potential landfalling hurricanes has hit flhurricane hard.
Up until post-Katrina it was my go to page
Squid2011 thinks it was windy, playing golf in Fargo? Well, when I was young we’d play baseball on Cape Cod, and never bothered with a catcher. The sea breeze would just blow the ball back to you, after the batter swung. (Was it a whiffle ball, you ask? Oh, well, now that you mention it…)
Joe Bastardi’s been saying this warm-core storm would develop this weekend for over a week now. He was talking about it even before that little Alberto exited stage right. That guy is pretty good.
I remember reading somewhere (WUWT?) that 2011 conditions (SST, shear… etc) leading up to hurricane season were strikingly similar to 1954. I might be off a year or two with ’54.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2011/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1954/track.gif
Are they naming nor’easter and squalls now? LOL
Just heard the local TV weatherman say you have to go back nearly 100 years to find another year where the hurricane season started this early.
My question is, how do they know? Until we put up weather satellites, we had no way of knowing about any tropical (or subtropical) storm that formed in the Atlantic and never made land, unless a ship just happened to be in its path and reported it when they made port AND it got recorded by some weather service. Maybe this was normal 50 or 75 years ago; maybe storms formed earlier then than they have in the past 30-40 years.
All they can say is that there is no record of a hurricane making landfall (presuming it does hit land) this early unless they go back 100 years or so – when records were spotty at best.
And I’m lousy at math and statistics. If I can spot this problem, why can’t the “experts”?
Well the six boats out there in the mid Atlantic trying to find winds above five knots, so it doesn’t take them the rest of the year to get to Lisbon in the Volvo Ocean race, are not impressed with Beryl. They seem to have been chasing a lack of wind, all the way from Miami, and despite the six navigators trying to find some real wind, no matter which way any of them turns, the doldrums just moves right along ahead of them. They’s all flop into Lisbon probably maybe having to row the rest of the way.
“”””” Barbara Skolaut says:
May 26, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Just heard the local TV weatherman say you have to go back nearly 100 years to find another year where the hurricane season started this early. “”””””
So who says the hurricane season has started; do you actually have to have hurricanes to have a hurricane season. And no fair counting typhoons; we don’t allow hurricanes here out west in the Pacific.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/natl_sst_oper0.png
clipe says:
May 26, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Beryl is the missing heat. Spotted off the coast of Florida.
brandon says:
May 26, 2012 at 5:57 am
these are not typical weather days anymore though. weather patterns, unusual heat, unusual cold in places and many other crazy weather patterns are the norm now….
_________________________
The patterns of the jet stream has changed. I watch it closely because my business depends on a correct prediction of the weather. I am better at predicting local weather than the weather service Hubby subscribes to.
Stephen has a possible explanation: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6645 and at least some decent pictures of what is happening.
So what is the big deal? We have already had a dozen days with winds over 30MPH, three over 35 MPH and 2 up to 40 MPH already this spring. in North Carolina. (I am 100 miles inland so I doubt I will see winds over 40MPH)
I do not mind getting more rain though.
Looks like it is headed for this buoy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012
“Site elevation: sea level
Air temp height: 4 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 5 m above site elevation”
For those who are puffing about wind strength, that is not the concern at this point. A tropical system has the potential to quickly grow into a hurricane and that is why it bears watching. A subtropical storm does not, and that is why all the hulabaloo about Beryl is just silly.
Beryl is not going to be that bad, but the reason you watch subtropical storms is because they can with the right conditions form into true TS’s….and from there of course go up in strength rather quickly.
As it is, it appears that Beryl is going to go full TS on us, but the models I have seen so far seem to suggest that it will remain a TS and not progress into Hurricane strength. (the chances listed for Hurricane 1 strength or higher is less then 10%.)
This is the reason to watch these storms, and yes the winds as it is forecasted to hit land-fall with are only going to be roughly 60MPH, (it is forecast to strengthen just a tad as it goes full tropical in the warm waters before it runs out of room so to speak and again hits the cooler waters and land…) And yes, a normal thunderstorm can easilly top this.
But its the threat of getting the winds stronger that you watch these storms since they tend to effect a large area with sustained winds that can cause damage to a wider area then most normal TS’s.
All in all, Beryl seems to be a good thing for Florida and Georgia as it will help the drought conditions there. So nothing much to worry about, but this is the reason we watch even Sub-tropical storms when they are able to become normal TS’s.
Well I’m listening to late night radio; including the “news”, and these twirps are tripping over their tongues, trying to build sub tropical breeze Beryl, into a super nova; yes the Volvo ocean race boats are stll virtually becalmed in single digit wafts, trying to reach the Azores, before Christmas.
“George E. Smith; says:
May 26, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Well I’m listening to late night radio; including the “news”, and these twirps are tripping over their tongues, trying to build sub tropical breeze Beryl, into a super nova; yes the Volvo ocean race boats are stll virtually becalmed in single digit wafts, trying to reach the Azores, before Christmas.”
ROFL. Not sure why your talking about Beryl and the yachts in the Volve Ocean race given there seperated by thousands of miles of open ocean.
In the meantime a hurricane hunter flight has sampled the centre of Beryl and NHC now have her with sustained winds of 45kts (85kmh). This would mean winds are gusting to the 110-115kmh hr range.
Whilst it may not be strong enough to do much damage its hardly what I would call a “breeze”. At the moment models are not showing it reaching hurricane strength but should it defy the models then even Cat 1 hurricanes can be killers.
I know the CAGW community like to jump on early tropical systems as proof of their theory but I think downplaying them as a means of taking potshots at CAGW theory is just as silly.
Living here in NC, every local articla I can find is calling Beryl a Tropical Storm. There is just no more due dilligence or care for accuracy in journalism amymore…
I just sneezed, & named the resulting gust of wind after Elizabeth Warren’s ancestor, “Sitting BS”.
It seems Beryl has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm . Jim Cantore is on the beach a couple of miles south of my house , so it must be for real . We’re having a lot of wind , but the heavy stuff won’t come until tonight and tomorrow .
“”””” Dave says:
May 27, 2012 at 12:26 am
“George E. Smith; says “””””
Well if you have been watching both the B_storm which I believe is also out in the Atlantic where it can pound the hell out of the ocean, and also the Volvo Ocean race boats, then you would know that most of those boats sailed right through B just a few days ago. Well yes they did have to reef their sails a bit, so they didn’t wreck anything; a typical green wind turbine would have been torn apart by B, but the boats sailed through it, some of them right into the eye. They were quite happy to get a nice ride out of B to send them on their way from Miami. but prefer something a little less breezy. But do keep a watch out so that B doesn’t cause anybody any serious damage.
I thought most big hurricanes started out in Africa not in Georgia.
“””””
…SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC… “””””
Sorry, I almost missed this; evidently B started off Argentina, not Georgia.
From:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012
Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 310 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 40.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 50.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 14.8 ft
====
Surfs up ?
Sure watch everything, but that doesn’t mean you have to panic and name everything around.
So, the hurricane season has started early, but without a hurricane? How do they determine the beginning of the hurricane season? Are sub-tropical storms now classified as hurricanes? Does any storm count? I’m an engineer – not a meteorologist. I don’t understand. When we say lift off, it means the rocket has left the pad. An engine start doesn’t qualify. (Well, the Falcon 9 announcer made a bad association last week, but he was embarrassed.)