Its always important to remember what has been predicted by the elders of science, and to review those predictions when the time is right. In four months, just 132 days from now at the end of summer on the Autumnal Equinox September 22nd 2012, the Arctic will be “nearly ice free” according to a prominent NASA scientist in a National Geographic article on December 12, 2007. That is also the same article in which the future NSIDC director made himself famous with this quote:
“The Arctic is screaming,”
…said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado.
Here’s the article as a screen cap, highlights mine:
Seth Borenstein of AP wrote the story.
Source: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html
Which I’ve webcited the printer friendly version (sans advertising) for posterity here:
http://www.webcitation.org/67cXXHEjg
Some people are taking this prediction very seriously, for example, watch this video:
Children just aren’t going to know what an Arctic Icecap is.
So, given the proximity of this upcoming event, I’ve added a countdown for it in the right sidebar. We watch and wait until 7:49AM Pacific Time 14:49 UTC on September 22nd, 2012.
In the meantime, here’s the current sea-ice situation on the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page
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As long as you qualify any claim with ‘could’ or ‘may’ you can make any claim.
The Global Warming trend ‘could’ kill us all on Dec. 21st, 2012.
The Sun ‘could’ go supernova in 2020.
The Moon ‘may’ grow swiss cheese houses for us to live in when we colonize.
The AGW people ‘could’ commit seppuku and reduce our carbon footprint.
Windmills ‘may’ produce more rainbows.
….as you see some results ‘may’ be better than others….
I agree with a couple of earlier replies. Heartland should use this on their billboards perhaps with the headline “The Real Inconvenient Truth”.
Speaking of InstaPundit: http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/143013/
“In 2007, Congress vastly overestimated the government’s ability to create a market for cellulosic biofuels, which remain much more expensive to produce than corn ethanol. There was no commercial production of cellulosic fuel in 2010 or 2011—even though the 2007 law originally called for 100 million and 250 million gallons, respectively, for those years (the requirements were subsequently scaled back to around 6.5 million gallons for each year).
So the same year the Arctic was predicted to be ice free in 2012, the Congress mandated 2012 production targets — a “five year plan” — for biofuels.
Our laws are as potent as our ability to predict the climate.
So putting government authorities in charge of the climate is a good idea, how, exactly?
My granny could have wheels by 2014 in which case she would be a wagon, but if not, she won’t.
How’s that for a scientific pronouncement? Right up there with Arctic Ice assessments I’d say.
Mike said: May 13, 2012 at 11:02 am
You are confusing the speculations of one scientist with a scientific consensus.
Otter said: May 13, 2012 at 11:12 am
We’re glad you agree that the leftist media has been printing nothing BUT speculation for years, mike… but we haven’t seen any ‘consensus’ anywhere. Could you point us to it?
Sure:
New Scientific Consensus: Arctic Is Warming Rapidly, ScienceDaily (Nov. 8, 2004)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041108213307.htm
I’d be shivering in my boots from fear after watching this video, except that I’m shivering because I’m cold in Boulder, CO where it is about 10F below normal. Of course, nothing is ever normal in Boulder. Just ask Mark Serreze. It’ll be back warmer than normal 70’s and 80’s maybe tomorrow. One sigma here is like 60F.
Henny Youngman says: Went to my doctor. He said, bad news, Henny, you’ve only got 6 months to live. I said, doc, that’s terrible. Plus it’s gonna take me a year to pay off your bill. So he gave me another 6 months… (rim shot).
When summer ends, be sure to come back to this and post a copy of the chart of sea ice level.
Bob
Next prediction – ice free 2013
Next prediction – ice free 2014
And so on…………….
I feel panicked watching that video and the accompanying music score, and I know it is old, out of date and wrong on every point. How is this nonsense affecting the children of this world? So Sad…….
I take it that this is the same AGW that has Mediterranean Europe a desert and the children in the UK never seeing snow in winter! I have heard it all before and it simply is not happening. Why do the warmists have difficulty in comprehending those very simple facts!!
…and when none of these predictions come to fruition, the prognosticators will shrewdly take credit for preventing them, by pointing to the policies put forth by those governments that *did* do something! Then they’ll say “…and imagine how much we could’ve done [to change this or that] had the other governments followed suit.”
Nothing will change, ever. This is the human condition: Some seek power/dominion; others seek personal transcendence. The End.
Just can’t resist piling on here:
Caruba-lies says:
May 13, 2012 at 7:28 am
You know his statement WAS correct :”At this rate. . . . ” At that rate, ice WOULD melt by 2012 — a FACTUAL statement. Another factual statement is that most WUWT bloggers are incapable of understanding simple English.
Your statement reminds me of a saying my dad uses from time to time. It’s called “If…dog…rabbit” as in: “If the dog didn’t stop to take a $h1t, he would have caught the rabbit.”
That’s a FACT as well.
t stone,
“Caruba-lies” seems to have a problem with Alan Caruba. Here is the most recent entry in Alan Caruba’s blog:
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com
I don’t see any ‘lies’ there.
Smokey says:
May 13, 2012 at 6:22 pm
Me neither. I don’t agree with Mr. Caruba himself 100% of the time (more like 95%), but he generally sticks to the facts, I enjoy his writing, and I appreciate his point-of-view. Mr. “Caruba-lies” on the other hand – not so much.
Mike says – ‘Sure: New Scientific Consensus: Arctic Is Warming Rapidly, ScienceDaily (Nov. 8, 2004)’
300 Scientists implies Consensus, and Consensus implies fact…
Thanks for the chuckles!
the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012″ WOW! WOW!!!
My grandpa ”could become” grandma, before the end of 2012 – if he grows those things. But then again, if he grows those things – – he wouldn’t be a grandpa / he would become a grandma…! In other words: if Arctic becomes ”ice free” wouldn’t be because of the phony GLOBAL warming!!!
Start learning the correct way guys:: ”ice on the polar caps doesn’t depend on the temperature; there average temp is minus -30C, that is twice as cold than in your deep freezer. 2] on the land, ice is melted from below, by the geothermal heat, every day of the year. On the seawater is melted from below also: salty seawater can melt ice on below zero centigrade temp! Can you dig it?!
The deficit of ice melted, needs replenishing every season! Therefore – it depends on the AMOUNT of water vapor that comes with the winds – the moist air is freeze-dried / IF THE AIR HAS WATER VAPOR. That’s the thing that is demonized by the Fundamentalists from both camps!!! In the permafrost temp get -60C below freezing, but no ice – because on those places vapor doesn’t come by the winds. Look, look, I’m scratching my head; why the extremist from both camps are demonizing water vapor and anything normal…?! please help; WHY, WHY?
Frank K. says — “BTW ‘Caruba-lies’ statement above exemplifies everything that is WRONG about climate “science” and the idiotic press releases we’re tortured with on an almost daily basis.
You so aptly nailed it with your backyard rain rate sarc. Mucho Kudos!
All those ridiculous predictions come from climate models set up to predict what greenhouse warming will do in the Arctic. They don’t work because Arctic warming is not greenhouse warming but is caused by warm water from the Gulf Stream carried by Atlantic Ocean currents into the Arctic. It started suddenly at the turn of the twentieth century, paused for thirty years in mid-century, then resumed, and is still going strong. Before it there was nothing but two thousand years of slow, linear cooling. And since there was no concurrent increase of carbon dioxide the greenhouse effect was ruled out as a cause. Kaufman et al. originally determined this climate history in 2009 but they had no idea at all of what they had discovered. But their Arctic temperature curve looked very much like Mann’s hockey stick did and I assume that is why Bradley, Briffa and Overpeck all signed up as co-authors. I wrote a paper based on their observations which was peer reviewed and published. But when I offered it to Anthony for posting he turned his nose up because of what I said about excuses made by warmists and because I had a nerve to end my sentences with exclamation points! You can download it from this web address: http://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/arno-arrak.pdf
Bah! “Arctic” this; “Autumn in September” that.
You’re all a bunch of Hemispherists!!
/sarc
How do these people get away with it? Just how, how on earth do they do it?
They have been caught out continuously. Observations have shown their models and predictions to be utter garbage over and over again. But. here we are, with stupid Australians (sorry guys, you are stupid for letting it happen) about to put up with an at least a 10% rise in their energy bills (read , in all prices since *everything* requires energy) in order to potentially, maybe, perhaps, stop the planet from warming by an amount so small that we cannot make a thermometer accurate enough to measure it. It is utter, utter, insanity.
How do they get away with it?
Could we have a “climatoligist” with a model showing the Antartic will be ice free in ?? years. Then I can invest in frakkiing there.
I predict the Arctic will be ice free next year.
Doesn’t CAGW theology state that the Ice caps and the tropical hot spot (Sounds like a nice rum and coke club) will be the flashing neon lights of Catastrophe?
The CAGW hill really is starting to look bare as everyone starts to drift away, I guess when you declare that on this date aliens will turn up and they don’t and you keep saying wait 5 minutes more it gets boring.
Anthony
Is it possible to change the countdown side bar to show days, instead of months, so that we see it changing everyday towards the promised day of no summer ice in the Arctic?
REPLY:I wish I could, but it seems limited and its the only option available from wordpress.com, which does not allow code embedded from 3rd party widget sources. When it gets to less than 30 days, it will switch to days – Anthony