"…the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012"

Its always important to remember what has been predicted by the elders of science, and to review those predictions when the time is right.  In four months, just 132 days from now at the end of summer on the Autumnal Equinox September 22nd 2012, the Arctic will be “nearly ice free” according to a prominent NASA scientist in a National Geographic article on December 12, 2007. That is also the same article in which the future NSIDC director made himself famous with this quote:

“The Arctic is screaming,”

…said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado.

Here’s the article as a screen cap, highlights mine:

Seth Borenstein of AP wrote the story.

Source: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html

Which I’ve webcited the printer friendly version (sans advertising) for posterity here:

http://www.webcitation.org/67cXXHEjg

Some people are taking this prediction very seriously, for example, watch this video:

Children just aren’t going to know what an Arctic Icecap is.

So, given the proximity of this upcoming event, I’ve added a countdown for it in the right sidebar. We watch and wait until 7:49AM Pacific Time 14:49 UTC on September 22nd, 2012.

In the meantime, here’s the current sea-ice situation on the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page

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GlynnMhor

Ooooh… you have to bring this back in September, or at least whenever the ice extent starts its winter increase.
REPLY: Check the sidebar, it will do the countdown and keep this story linked – Anthony

No Mark, it’s you that’s screaming about the sky falling.

Ben Wilson

Undoubtedly the sole reason for arctic ice still being with us was the ascension to the throne of the fellow who made the oceans quit rising. . . . . . .

Here’s a few more:
Frightening’ projection for Arctic melt
The Arctic Ocean could be free of ice in the summer as soon as 2010 or 2015 – something that hasn’t happened for more than a million years, according to a leading polar researcher.
The frightening models we didn’t even dare to talk about before are now proving to be true,” Fortier told CanWest News Service, referring to computer models that take into account the thinning of the sea ice and the warming from the albedo effect – the Earth is absorbing more energy as the sea ice melts.
According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.
“And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier, who leads an international team of researchers in the Arctic looking for clues to climate change.
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=c76d05dd-2864-43b2-a2e3-82e0a8ca05d5&k=53683
—————————————————————————————————————
Too late to keep Arctic sea ice from vanishing?
‘It’s hard to see how the system may come back,’ expert says
Arctic sea ice next summer may shrink below the record low last year and it’s hard to see how it won’t eventually melt away completely, according to a University of Washington climatologist.
Have we passed the tipping point?” he asked. “It’s hard to see how the system may come back.”
The prospect of a mostly ice-free Arctic could mean a boom in shipping through the Bering Strait, several speakers said, but is bad news for polar bears and other animals.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23134090/#.T681KejpG5I

corio37

“This week, after reviewing his own data…”
Well, that’ll do it to you, every time.

JC

Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts…

Rick K

My apologies to all for doing this to you…
I Love Living In the Arctic
I love livin’ in the Arctic
It’s really quite cathartic
Movin’ to the Antarctic
After the big melt.
Brisk air makes me feel brand new
Turns my toes and fingers blue
I can’t feel my sinews
Even when eating smelt.
Some say the ice is really cold
It helps to be both dumb and bold
Disregard all you’ve been told
To live the way out here.
But out here it’s really nice
Lots to drink and lots of ice
Yes I’d love a lemon slice
In my frozen beer.
The Arctic’s great I like it lots
Though I could use a few more Watts
A couple skeptics could help me spot
A shortcut to the Pole.
Al lives in Montecito
Lunches in Cupertino
Arugula, steak and vino
And livin’ on the dole.
I’m looking for my buddy Al
He told me that he was my pal
Too bad he lost his favorite gal
But he still got all the bling
Gotta love the six month night
Sleep under the northern lights
Can’t feel your feet? It’s alright
They’ll thaw in the Spring.
I came out here to beat the heat
Sleeping on the Arctic sheet
Frozen breath is really neat
Once you chip it off your face.
I just heard a deathly squeal
I hope that wasn’t a baby seal
I just threw up my last meal
At least I’m saving the human race.
Now your stomach’s growling
While the wind is howling
Nearby something’s prowling
It’s just a polar bear.
But hey don’t get your feelings bent
He only wants to share your tent
You’ll wonder where your manhood went
When you see his icy stare.
Maybe he wants to share your Coke
Believe that if you are a dope
At this point you have no hope
And this fact do not ignore.
Sure, he’s tall, cuddly and cute
His pretty girlfriend she’s a beaut
His friends and cubs they’re all enroute
Did I mention he’s a carnivore?
I love livin’ in the Arctic
It’s really quite cathartic
Movin’ to the Antarctic
After the big melt.
Who needs all that warmth and food
Head covered in a 5 pound hood
Losing half your body mass is good
My! I look so svelte.
You’re living large in a tiny hut
Both your eyes are frozen shut
And now you’ve got a tiny gut
By living off the land.
Oh, that’s right it’s frozen ice
Even though they say it’s nice
The leads aren’t good for growing rice
And all your food is canned.
You say you like the Summer
Man that is a bummer
Out here you could drive a Hummer
But the gas is frozen solid.
Searing pain inside your bones
Battery dead on the satellite phone
This place has all the comforts of home
Except it’s a lot more squalid.
Your frozen foot is turning black
There’s no point in turning back
Way out here there’s just no lack
Of fun things to do.
Melt some snow to get a drink
The GPS is on the blink
That way’s North at least I think
That’s the way to go.
I am the pride of my Nation
I’ll be a sensation
Is this Arctic Amplification
My hand won’t fit my glove.
It’s just a little swollen
No chance I’m going bowlin’
Looks like some fingers were stolen
I could use some love.
If I don’t make it don’t feel bad
I don’t want you feelin’ sad
Think of the good times I’ve had
And how my heart is filled with glee.
Been livin’ in a freezer
Just thirty but I look like a geezer
Pull off my dead skin with a tweezer
And bury me at sea.
CO2’s a demon gas
It comes out of a bovine’s
Asinine ideas have no class
Soon we’re all going to burn.
The UN says it’s CO2
They say it’s all because of you
Just stop breathing that’ll do
You have so much to learn.
CO2 is less than one percent
But Al knows how the money’s spent
He was just here but now he went
Flying off to Rio.
Al just wants to save the world
Wants his frozen margarita’s swirled
Sleeps in a warm bed toes are curled
Life is better below zero.
Tell my love I’ll be a little late
My leg they had to amputate
I be just a torso at this rate
But it’s all good and well.
I’m doing this to save the earth
Al looks like he’s giving birth
I’m doing this for what it’s worth
Before the earth turns into hell.
Oh I love livin’ in the Arctic
It’s really quite cathartic
Movin’ to the Antarctic
After the big melt.
Some say here it’s really cold
Don’t be a sissy just be bold
Follow Al do what you’re told
Pay your carbon tax and tighten your belt.

SionedL

Since Obama told us that the border fence was ” basicaly done”, (5%) then if only 5% of the ice has melted by then, this will be true. It all depends on the definition of “nearly.”

Stephanie Clague

Those self appointed experts and prophets of imminent doom who made such wild and unsubstantiated claims should be presented with them at every opportunity, never be allowed to forget their past made up lies.

Taphonomic

I wonder if the servers on Cryosphere Today will be back up by then.

My God, the Internet has changed human history for sure. The folly of Mann’s predictions are laid bare for eternity. Oh the humanity.

tokyoboy

IIRC, in 2008 Al Gore also predicted in Berlin that the Arctic would be ice-free in 2013.

Richard Day

Predictions are like, well, you know. Let’s make it interesting: anytime one of these clowns like Serreze makes a prediction and it’s wrong, they lose their job. [snip] Their choice.

just some guy

“if the ice all melt… then the gas, will be released. from the ocean.
and we’ll all be poisoned!
by the gas….
from the ocean….
That’s a LOT of gas. Enough to kill everyone.”
HAHAHAHAHA!

Jean Meeus

< on the Autumnal Equinox September 21st 2012,
Anthony, this year Autumnal Equinox will occur on September 22.
REPLY: Had it right in the countdown, but typoed the text fixed thanks. – Anthony

Don’t forget Al Gore’s Nobel Peace Prize winning speech 10th Dec 2007. Ice free in as little as 7 years.
http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2007/gore-lecture_en.html
Not long now Al…

Huth

Chuckle! Thanks for that.

Len

The hard edge of real data sems to be bain of the warmistas. Making scary predictions have many advantages. One is press coverage and the oher is government grants and another is tenure.
What is sad is that the fame, money, and tenure remain even when the scientific predictions are shown to be nonsense and entirely self-serving.
Thank goodness we are getting more and more data all the time. And, so long as it isn’t adjusted it will prove the alarmists false.

handjive

Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), is consistent:
April 27, 2008
North Pole Could Be Ice Free in 2008
There is this thin first-year ice even at the North Pole at the moment,” says Serreze. “This raises the spectre – the possibility that you could become ice free at the North Pole this year.”
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=4728737&page=1#.T69QYu2EYqY

DaveF

Just some guy 10:31pm:
That’s what I thought she said, so I listened again, and, although the accent’s difficult with all the background music, it does seem as though she thinks carbon-dioxide is poisonous. My God, we’ve got a lot of work to do!.

Olaf Koenders

Hold them to account. Force them to recant..

old44

If the Arctic sea ice reflects 80% of the suns heat, how much does the Antarctic cap and sea ice reflect?

JC says:
May 12, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts…

…and Climate Science is the belief in the expertise of ignorants.

@ Rick K, May 12, 2012 at 9:32 pm: That. Was. Hilarious!

Brian H

Rick K says:
May 12, 2012 at 9:32 pm
My apologies to all for doing this to you…

Rarely has an advance apology been sooo appropriate ..
>:p

Brian H

jsg;
Yep, gotta avoid that gas stuff! It’s so invisible and suffocating and all-blanketing and …
Oog. Trying to get into some people’s minds and POV is really a bad move. Stupefying, even.

Andrew30

And repeated in 2009, and re-broadcast on June 17th 2010.
“Now, one sobering forecast is that the Arctic Ocean will be seasonally ice free by the summer of 2013.”
David Suzuki
http://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/natureofthings/2009/arcticmeltdown/
‘by the summer of’ not ‘in the summer of’ or ‘after the summer of’, meaning sometime Before the summer of 2013, ie. in the low point of 2012

Andrew30

According to David Suzuki it will be Ice Free (No Ice, None) not ‘Nearly Ice Free’ but flat out Ice Free, no qualifiers, No Ice at all, None, Nada, Zip, by the summer of 2013.
“Now, one sobering forecast is that the Arctic Ocean will be seasonally ice free by the summer of 2013.”
David Suzuki
http://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/natureofthings/2009/arcticmeltdown/

David, UK

Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
May 12, 2012 at 9:09 pm
No Mark, it’s you that’s screaming about the sky falling.

Indeed – talk about projection. All the screaming is coming from Mark Serreze.
Big nancy.

Kasuha

The original statement is not “at the end of 2012 arctic will be ice free”, the statement is “at this rate (of decline), at the end of 2012 arctic will be ice free”. Now just a simple check of sea ice page reveals that the rate of decline did not stay, the decline slowed down drastically right during 2007 (but who could have seen it by then?) and while arctic ice is way under average of previous years, it’s more or less stable since 2007. So the rate of decline did not stay and using elementary logic, the statement “if A then B” is true either if both A and B are true, or if A is false – which is this case. The original statement is true because the assumption it is based on did not come to be true.

KnR

‘could be nearly ice-free’ there is much more wiggle room in those words than you think

As I keep saying: The globe can be getting warmer or colder, but the idea that the human contribution from burning carbon fuels has anything to do with it is not only IMHO the biggest political and intellectual fraud ever – but so says the IPCC itself: http://cleanenergypundit.blogspot.com/2011/10/west-is-facing-new-severe-recession.html.
The ongoing discussion pro and con is becoming akin to the scholastic argument as to how many angels can dance on the head of a needle. Which is, of course, exactly what is intended, to achieve worldwide disorientation away from the actual IPCC aims of their monetary and energy policies – and bringing a whole discipline, if not all, of science into disrepute in the process. Even the UK Royal Society has become Lysenkoist.
That’s not to belittle the effort by thousands of scientists fighting for the truth in climate research, but I dismay over the practical effect of diverting all this brain power in a direction not at all relevant to the IPCC’s actual and declared political and financial intentions – or more importantly: away from the actual work that needs doing.
All IMHO, of course. My musings for what they may be worth on my various blogsite entries, and at http://www.lmhdesign.co.uk/sustainability.php and the Planet page on that website.

max

Would it be reasonable to force these people to buy beachfront condos on the Arctic Ocean and make them live there? What I mean to say is that “there is a very public record of who has been lying to the public and who hasn’t – and it’s time to start using this information to make the liars and shirkers pay.” (Steve Zwick, Forbes, 19 APR 2012)
[Note site policy – please supply a valid email address to comment ~jove, mod]

Berényi Péter

Please note, to falsify Dr. Mark Serreze’s prediction it is not enough to show in late September, 2012, that “the Arctic Ocean has in fact not become nearly ice-free”, but you will have to prove a vastly stronger proposition, which is “the Arctic Ocean could not have been nearly ice-free by now under any circumstances”. Tergiversation rulez.

Village Idiot

An ‘The Great Cooling’ started in 2007, i seem to remember
http://wattsupwiththat.com/widget/

Larry in Texas

I won’t be holding my breath about Arctic sea ice disappearing in the next four months. I’ll be breathing in and out as always, discharging my fair share of carbon dioxide. In the meantime for the next couple of months starting in June, I’ll be visiting up in the Great Midwest, in order to (hopefully) beat the Texas heat.

Andrew30

With new quantum computing hardware and polynomial-time algorithms I am sure that Climate Science will be able to maintain the Ice Free by 2013 prediction well in to the next century. Time is after all not a required component in the general theory of relativity and in Quantum Computing al possible outcomes occur.
Climate Science in the Multi-Verse.
“It all melted in a parallel dimension and we are guilty destroying a sister Earth in another universe, we must purchase carbon credits and entangle them in a quantum state and send them off to another universe”. Climate Scientists could even issue a news releases about how they have examined the P-Branes to verify their conclusions.
(en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_time#Polynomial_time)
(en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-brane)

John Silver

“Nearly”
It’s always nearly gone.

richardscourtney

Kasuha:
Any prediction is provided with a get-out-clause (ask Madam Zara in her fairground tent), but the accuracy of a prediction is provided by comparison of the prediction with subsequent outcome. And the reliability of a predictor is demonstrated by the accuracy of his/her/its predictions.
However, your post at May 13, 2012 at 12:35 am says, in full;
“The original statement is not “at the end of 2012 arctic will be ice free”, the statement is “at this rate (of decline), at the end of 2012 arctic will be ice free”. Now just a simple check of sea ice page reveals that the rate of decline did not stay, the decline slowed down drastically right during 2007 (but who could have seen it by then?) and while arctic ice is way under average of previous years, it’s more or less stable since 2007. So the rate of decline did not stay and using elementary logic, the statement “if A then B” is true either if both A and B are true, or if A is false – which is this case. The original statement is true because the assumption it is based on did not come to be true.”
As KnR says (at May 13, 2012 at 12:51 am) your excuse was to be expected, but it is a classic fail. Consider the following issues.
Was the statement by Serreze logically true? Perhaps (that is debatable).
Was the statement by Serreze misleading? Yes.
Was the statement by Serreze intended to induce a political reaction? Yes.
Was the statement by Serreze objected to by any of his colleagues? No
Has the statement by Serreze proved to be a correct prediction? NO! It was plain wrong.
Should such predictions of Serreze and his colleagues be trusted in future? Try to work that out for yourself.
Richard

richardscourtney

Kasuha:
In retrospect, I think I need to explicitly state something that I did not include it in my post addressed to you because it is obvious.
When Serreze said “at this rate (of decline)” he was stating the method he used to make his prediction (i.e. the method was extrapolation).
The method proved to be wrong and that proves Serreze either
(a) did not know what he was talking about
or
(b) was deliberately presenting a falsehood.
Richard

Günther Kirschbaum

[snip. Not a valid email address. ~dbs, mod.]

robmcn

Did you hear the one about the climate scientist that cried polar bear?

Andrew30

Berényi Péter says: May 13, 2012 at 1:13 am
(A load of bull)
Since the Arctic could have been Ice Free if the Earth had been broken in half and driven towards the Sun by a Moon sized asteroid (‘Any Circumstances’) your proposition is nonsense.
If there is Ice then the prediction is wrong, simple, make a prediction, take a measurement from nature, if the prediction disagrees with nature then the idea that was behind the prediction is wrong, as is the prediction. Unlike you, nature does not use semantics or philosophy or sophistry.

SPreserv

Its just like religious doomsday predictors, they calculate a “the end is nigh” date and when the day comes and nothing happens they just say they got the calculations wrong and then give you an alternare date for the event.
With the exception of the admitting that an error was made of course.

MikeH

I wonder if they’ll backtrack like the Himalayan glaciers melting by 2035 incident? “Oh, I said 2120, not 2012, the journalist must have transposed the numbers.”

Stacey

“There is this thin first-year ice even at the North Pole at the moment,” says Serreze. “This raises the spectre – the possibility that you could become ice free at the North Pole this year.”
After the due date had past in 2008 I sent him an email regarding this and his response was we were wrong.
The only thing that will be lacking in Sept 2012 is already lacking now and it is simply his Organisations credibility.
But hey some people will do anything to get noticed 🙂
There was a young man called serreze
Who’s jumpers were knitted from Polar Bears
Which were very nice and allowed him to skate on thin ice.
Sorry for the doggerel 🙁

dennisambler

It’s late:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=22250
February 27, 2001:
“The Arctic ice cap is melting at a rate that could allow routine commercial shipping through the far north in a decade and open up new fisheries.
It was in 1906, after centuries of attempts, that Roald Amundsen finally navigated the North-West Passage through the sea ice north of Canada. Even today, only specially strengthened ships can make the trip.”
So how did Amundsen do it? Amazing that it had taken “centuries of attempts” though.
“But in 10 years’ time, if melting patterns change as predicted, the North-West Passage could be open to ordinary shipping for a month each summer
.
Peter Wadhams of the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge agrees that the Arctic could soon open up. “Within a decade we can expect regular summer trade there,” he predicts.”
Wadhams is the one who declared in 2000 that ice thickness had declined by 43% over 20 years, during the Arctic summer, with data from submarines, (also supported by Rothrock), later quoted by Al Gore.
Holloway and Sou, (2001 ) found that
“In the case of submarine-inferred rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, combined modelling and data argue that a more physically plausible inference is that the ice was not “lost” but only shifted within the Arctic. The pattern of submarine sampling happened to miss the shift. Observations to date, together with model physics, imply only that the loss of sea ice volume is not inconsistent with the 3% per decade loss of ice area, a modest rate itself not inconsistent with multi-decadal natural variability.”
Wadhams is still the “go to” person for the BBC on all matters Arctic and of course he was scientific adviser to the Catlin expedition….

EternalOptimist

There is a lot of talk about wiggle room in the words used in the prognostications. Not only does that make them worthless as predictions, but imagine if the Arctic were ice free this summer !!
There would be no talk about wiggle room from the catastrophists then, it will become cast iron science based predictions that prove the models came down from mt. Sinai on tablets of stone

tango

If I was paid a very large grant I wood come up with the same crap as they are peddling too

David

Yogi Berra quotes which apply:
1. It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
2. The future ain’t what it used to be.
3. If you don’t know where your going, you might end up someplace else.