Its always important to remember what has been predicted by the elders of science, and to review those predictions when the time is right. In four months, just 132 days from now at the end of summer on the Autumnal Equinox September 22nd 2012, the Arctic will be “nearly ice free” according to a prominent NASA scientist in a National Geographic article on December 12, 2007. That is also the same article in which the future NSIDC director made himself famous with this quote:
“The Arctic is screaming,”
…said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado.
Here’s the article as a screen cap, highlights mine:
Seth Borenstein of AP wrote the story.
Source: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html
Which I’ve webcited the printer friendly version (sans advertising) for posterity here:
http://www.webcitation.org/67cXXHEjg
Some people are taking this prediction very seriously, for example, watch this video:
Children just aren’t going to know what an Arctic Icecap is.
So, given the proximity of this upcoming event, I’ve added a countdown for it in the right sidebar. We watch and wait until 7:49AM Pacific Time 14:49 UTC on September 22nd, 2012.
In the meantime, here’s the current sea-ice situation on the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page
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You are confusing the speculations of one scientist with a scientific consensus.
Rick K.
Hey, thanks for add to the poems of our climate. I do love rhyme and you did good feller! You should fix the meter here and there and shorten it a bit, but overall, wonderfully wacky. Think I’ll have smelt for lunch.
Harold Ambler I shouldn’t worry
We have Al on record 10th Dec 2007 saying with customary dramatic pause “7 years from now” like it was a certainty. The inevitable doom.
Roll on 2014 when the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize can finally be awarded to a deserving recipient.
Caruba-lies says:
May 13, 2012 at 7:28 am
You know his statement WAS correct :”At this rate. . . . ” At that rate, ice WOULD melt by 2012 — a FACTUAL statement. Another factual statement is that most WUWT bloggers are incapable of understanding simple English.
Keep an eye on Ellesmere Island and let me know when the Canadians start building a deepwater port facility — we’ll get in on the ground floor and make a fortune…
Mike says:
May 13, 2012 at 11:02 am
You are confusing the speculations of one scientist with a scientific consensus.
—
We’re glad you agree that the leftist media has been printing nothing BUT speculation for years, mike… but we haven’t seen any ‘consensus’ anywhere. Could you point us to it?
If you can stomach the propaganda – the relevant bit begins at 4 mins 14seconds
pouncer says:
May 13, 2012 at 10:33 am
Sort of like Glenn Reynolds the instapundit reporting that he had been told in 2008, IF he voted for John McCain, then Gitmo would remain open, terrorists would be tried by military tribunals instead of civilian courts, the US still would reject Kyoto-style carbon-dioxide-control measures and taxes, etc.
My doorgunner in Vietnam said, “I was told that if I voted for Goldwater, the war in Vietnam would escalate and I’d be drafted and sent over here. I voted for Goldwater, and sure enough, the war expanded, I got drafted, and here I am. Or here we are, actually — did you vote for Goldwater, too?”
carriesmoon says:
May 13, 2012 at 5:57 am
There was a Physicist called Mann
Whose manifest problems began
When he said all the ice
Would be gone in a trice
And the whole thing turned out to be sham
(I know it wasn’t actually Mann, but it scans)
🙂
======================================================
Figure of speech Metonymy, the change of one noun for another related noun. It communicated.8-)
I think all you haters have gotten it wrong. It was a typo and they meant to say that the “Indian Ocean” will be nearly ice free by the end of 2012.
Frighteningly accurate.
SteveC says:
May 13, 2012 at 7:04 am
Wait! Here’s another “predication”. You just can’t make this stuff up! http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52896
IN SAID ARTICLE, priceless:
“The volume – extent and thickness – of ice left in the Arctic likely reached the lowest ever level this month, Serreze told IPS.
“I stand by my previous statements that the Arctic summer sea ice cover is in a death spiral. It’s not going to recover,” he said”
David says:
May 13, 2012 at 3:23 am
Yogi Berra quotes which apply:
1. It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
2. The future ain’t what it used to be.
3. If you don’t know where your going, you might end up someplace else.
4. When you come to a fork in the road, take it.
pochas says:
May 13, 2012 at 6:48 am
This is great. An archive of bold predictions. Let’s call ‘em out and cash ‘em or trash ‘em.
================================================
Now there’s an idea for billboards
A prediction.
The price of gas.
(Perhaps a revision of the prediction)
“Do you believe me now?”
Mike says:
May 13, 2012 at 11:02 am
You are confusing the speculations of one scientist with a scientific consensus.
———————————————————————
So a consensus that is made up of numerous scientists speculating on a topic can be correct even if each individual in it is wrong?
Gas will be around this price (under $5) for a long time if we get the oil sands in Canada online. Obama and everyone else is on board for that, noone is worried but for the greenies who want to bring down the economy for a misperception and their own hubris.
If you run the numbers, the sea ice has to be about 30% lower right now and then melt at about 20% higher per day than normal to reach Zero on the typical minimum day of Sept 12. And no year so far has melted out any more than 10% higher than normal per day so it would be physically impossible without March/April starting out the melt year 35% below normal. 2012, by contrast, was right at the average, so no soup for Serreze in 2012.
But then, the NSIDC has many problems with numbers so I don’t imagine they have considered running the numbers.
So if Arctic ice is just about the same in 2012 as when he made his prediction will that be enough to show he is wrong?
Well no. Having right or wrong predictions has never meant anything to ‘global warming’.
BTW, speaking of warming, where is it?
The Arctic Death Spiral?
Is that when you freeze to death AND FALL ON THE ICE spinning?
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/09/09/reports-record-arctic-ice-melt-disgracefully-ignore-history
http://www.bgr.de/ecord/index.html?/ecord/polar_oceans/arctic_ocean.htm
Every time I here an outlandish prediction like this I think of this:[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9cBc-TQESI&w=420&h=315%5D
The Bible has an excellent test for prophets in Deut. 18:21-22:
‘You may say to yourselves, “How can we know when a message has not been spoken by the LORD?”
‘If what a prophet proclaims in the name of the LORD does not take place or come true, that is a message the LORD has not spoken. That prophet has spoken presumptuously. Do not be afraid of him.’
Mike, Antbones and Caruba-lies,
Just for you guys…
Jean Meeus says:
May 12, 2012 at 10:42 pm
< on the Autumnal Equinox September 21st 2012,
Anthony, this year Autumnal Equinox will occur on September 22.
REPLY: Had it right in the countdown, but typoed the text fixed thanks. – Anthony
================
Umm, some might disagree with both of you 🙂
Per:
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=22&month=9&year=2012&obj=sun&afl=-11&day=1
"September Equinox (Vernal Equinox) is on Sunday, September 23, 2012 at 2:49 AM in Auckland. "
It's that UTC time thing 🙂
anotherfred;
So a consensus that is made up of numerous scientists speculating on a topic can be correct even if each individual in it is wrong?
>>>>>>
Good point. I think we’ve failed to take the CAGW movement to task in terms of their use of the word “consunsus”. When a large group of people needs to make a decision, they may do so by consensus. That is, the minority opinion stands down in favour of the majority opinion.
What we forget to point out to the warmists who cite “consensus” in support of their position is that even if there was one (there isn’t) consensus says NOTHING about what is correct and what is wrong. A large group of people might arrive at a consensus that 2+2=3. The consensus merely defines the decision making process, it in no way makes it right.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
May 13, 2012 at 12:59 pm
So if Arctic ice is just about the same in 2012 as when he made his prediction will that be enough to show he is wrong?
Well no. Having right or wrong predictions has never meant anything to ‘global warming’.
BTW, speaking of warming, where is it?
________________________
It sure is not in mid North Carolina! It is a chilly 68.9F today. The average max temp for today is 78F.
Too bad we can not come up with a catchy heartland bill board exposing this. Maybe this Susuki myth vs reality ( photo by © Bryan & Cherry Alexander Photography / ArcticPhoto)
Caruba-lies says:
May 13, 2012 at 7:28 am
“You know his statement WAS correct :”At this rate. . . . ” At that rate, ice WOULD melt by 2012 — a FACTUAL statement. Another factual statement is that most WUWT bloggers are incapable of understanding simple English.”
No, we just can’t understand weasel words.