Its always important to remember what has been predicted by the elders of science, and to review those predictions when the time is right. In four months, just 132 days from now at the end of summer on the Autumnal Equinox September 22nd 2012, the Arctic will be “nearly ice free” according to a prominent NASA scientist in a National Geographic article on December 12, 2007. That is also the same article in which the future NSIDC director made himself famous with this quote:
“The Arctic is screaming,”
…said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado.
Here’s the article as a screen cap, highlights mine:
Seth Borenstein of AP wrote the story.
Source: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html
Which I’ve webcited the printer friendly version (sans advertising) for posterity here:
http://www.webcitation.org/67cXXHEjg
Some people are taking this prediction very seriously, for example, watch this video:
Children just aren’t going to know what an Arctic Icecap is.
So, given the proximity of this upcoming event, I’ve added a countdown for it in the right sidebar. We watch and wait until 7:49AM Pacific Time 14:49 UTC on September 22nd, 2012.
In the meantime, here’s the current sea-ice situation on the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page
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Caruba-lies says:
May 13, 2012 at 7:28 am
“You know his statement WAS correct :”At this rate. . . . ” At that rate, ice WOULD melt by 2012 — a FACTUAL statement. Another factual statement is that most WUWT bloggers are incapable of understanding simple English.”
Ooh – let me try! I wanna be a klimate scientist(tm)!
“Right now, it’s raining an inch per hour in my backyard. At that rate, my house will be underwater in a week, Oh no! Man the life boats!”
BTW “Caruba-lies” statement above exemplifies everything that is WRONG about climate “science” and the idiotic press releases we’re tortured with on an almost daily basis.
“The Arctic is screaming,”
Indeed it is. I can hear the Arctic screaming “Serreze is an exaggerating alarmist and a poor scientist!” lol
My apologies to all for doing this to you…
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6B92nPs8lg&w=560&h=315%5D
jbunt says:
May 13, 2012 at 7:39 am
Looking at the sea ice reference page I have a question – Why haven’t the anomaly charts been updated for over a month now?
They have frozen up!
“We watch and wait until 7:49AM Pacific Time 14:49 UTC on September 22nd, 2012.”
My birthday!
And, as it happens, the birthday of both Bilbo and Frodo Baggins.
Cuba lies is a fool.
any five year old can make a prediction that will be 100% accurate, whilst being 100% useless
‘tomorrow it will either rain, or it will not’
a totally useless prediction, which is why we don’t put 5 year olds in charge of climate science
wait……..
“The Arctic is screaming.”
No, that was me, laughing.
Wait for it, J.Z. will claim typos, mis-quoting, and being mis-understood. As follows:
At this rate, the Atlantic Ocean could be fairly ice-free at the end of summer by 2021, faster than previous warnings.
Paul Coppin says:
May 13, 2012 at 8:21 am
…Guardian:
“Prince Charles, patron, announced that he will spearhead another campaign on behalf of the World Wildlife Fund is order to raise money from institutional and corporate donors…”
Ah yes… Charles, Prince of Wails is at it again.
Richard M says:
May 13, 2012 at 7:23 am
Now, that still leaves the question of what has caused the Arctic to warm. I have seen a few theories put forth but I don’t think we really know the answer.
It could have something to do with the fact that around 90% of the population live in the Northern Hemisphere.
The article says “could be…”.. Do you understand what that means? FYI..it’s not the same as “will be”…
What PR firm produced that video?…
Video of Gore predicting ice-free Arctic in five years (“funf Jahre” as the translator said) in Berlin in 2008 seems to have been disappeared. I’ve been trying to find it again for nearly two years now. If anyone has it please post here and/or get word to me through my blog. Thanks much!!
” The Arctic is screaming” I love that scaremonger doozie.
I get a lot of satisfaction from these dud predictions. The pickings will only get richer.
Thanks A.
SteveC says:
May 13, 2012 at 7:04 am
Wait! Here’s another “predication”. You just can’t make this stuff up! http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52896
Now this wouldn’t be sales propaganda to sell their new roof and wall coverings would it?
Ok, in case some missed it in my “headlines” post ….. /sarc …..
Antbones says:
May 13, 2012 at 8:56 am
The article says “could be…”.. Do you understand what that means? FYI..it’s not the same as “will be”…
———————————————————————————————————————————–
I just bought a lottery ticket. I “could be” a multimillionaire tonight. Geesh!
Antbones,
. So why didn’t he say “could not be”?
Equally valid when dealing with conjecture. Conjecture can never be incorrect until such time comes that the conjecture refers to. Then it can damn sure be wrong.
“Could” is akin to “will” when making conjecture.
old44 says:
May 13, 2012 at 12:11 am
If the Arctic sea ice reflects 80% of the suns heat, how much does the Antarctic cap and sea ice reflect?
That’s only when the sun is directly above the pole!
Caruba-lies says:
May 13, 2012 at 7:28 am
You know his statement WAS correct :”At this rate. . . . ”
>>>>>>>>>>
The implication made by Serreze was clear. His intent was to convey the message that:
1. If the current rate continues, blah, blah, blah (bad things will happen)
2. The current rate is due to human CO2 emissions
3. We must do something about CO2 emissions in order to curb the rate
Attempting after the fact to suggest his prediction carried scientificaly valid caveats is a sad and pathetic attempt to re-write history to make it compatible with the present.
The oriental guru gal is nutty (and I believe this is one of her videos either produced by her or one of her followers). I’ve seen some of her other videos and she is a dead ringer for a Monty Python messiah. Whatever she says can be safely ignored.
What is at fault here is a belief in science gone awry. Maybe it is the fault of the “now” society. We want our “go-to-the-bank” theories done with just one research project and one article. And no one does decades-long basic research anymore because we “know” all the basics.
It is from this erred basis of science practice in climate research that we get researchers willing to state such nonsense as Jay has done. Let us hope his bowl of crow will be properly nutritious.
Kasuha says:
May 13, 2012 at 12:35 am
The original statement is not “at the end of 2012 arctic will be ice free”, the statement is “at this rate (of decline), at the end of 2012 arctic will be ice free”.
==========
While the original statement is “technically” correct, it is false and misleading. It could even be fraud, if they were able to obtain increased funding to study the problem.
One could just as correctly say, “Given the current rate of increase in Arctic Ice, the northern hemisphere will be covered in ice by 2030”.
Thus, the reasonable conclusion, given the increasing ice in the arctic, is that China, India and the UN with their increased CO2 emissions are working to save the planet from a return to the ice age. While Hansen, Gore and the IPCC is working to bring about a return to the ice age, by reducing CO2.
That must be one crowded calendar of predictions.
Heartland should have used failed predictions for its billboards.
Caruba-lies at 7:28 am ‘You know his statement WAS correct :”At this rate. . . . ” At that rate, ice WOULD melt by 2012 — a FACTUAL statement. ‘
Sort of like Glenn Reynolds the instapundit reporting that he had been told in 2008, IF he voted for John McCain, then Gitmo would remain open, terrorists would be tried by military tribunals instead of civilian courts, the US still would reject Kyoto-style carbon-dioxide-control measures and taxes, etc.
IFF only more people like Reynolds had voted the other way, then the Senate would have ratified Kyoto, electric cars would be cheap and ubiquitous, solar generating stations would be, with minor federal subsidies, operating profitably and producing significant amounts of carbon-pollution-free energy, millions of people would have taken jobs in thriving new “green”, eco-friendly” industries, wishes would be horses and beggars all would ride, right?
On the other hand, if the premises are faulty or if the overall situation originates with somewhat more complexity than two factors — CO2 and temperature; Republican or Democrat, rice and steel — then the ability of central committees to forecast the consequences of a particular policy quickly degrades. Possibly there are natural variations, or forcings, or feedbacks, or even anthropogenic factors affecting the icecap that were not evident in 2007. Perhaps the models still need work? Perhaps the models are wonderful but the input parameters were based on faulty (CRU?) data? Perhaps, as Lorenz found, that even a simple model with only three factors generates chaotic results and can’t be relied on for long-term forecasting. Do you know? I don’t.
What I do know is that mass-media coverage of an expert authority making a confident assertion of a scary-scenario/long term forecast has proven unjustified. And that there’s a lesson in that for those with eyes to see, ears to hear, and memory to apply.