Its always important to remember what has been predicted by the elders of science, and to review those predictions when the time is right. In four months, just 132 days from now at the end of summer on the Autumnal Equinox September 22nd 2012, the Arctic will be “nearly ice free” according to a prominent NASA scientist in a National Geographic article on December 12, 2007. That is also the same article in which the future NSIDC director made himself famous with this quote:
“The Arctic is screaming,”
…said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado.
Here’s the article as a screen cap, highlights mine:
Seth Borenstein of AP wrote the story.
Source: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html
Which I’ve webcited the printer friendly version (sans advertising) for posterity here:
http://www.webcitation.org/67cXXHEjg
Some people are taking this prediction very seriously, for example, watch this video:
Children just aren’t going to know what an Arctic Icecap is.
So, given the proximity of this upcoming event, I’ve added a countdown for it in the right sidebar. We watch and wait until 7:49AM Pacific Time 14:49 UTC on September 22nd, 2012.
In the meantime, here’s the current sea-ice situation on the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page
The detector or means for ascertaining the arctic anomaly on the linked page are obviously broken, starting in 2012. Note that in one of your figures, the 2012 data exhibits some four sharp downward spikes that aren’t apparent in the data of any other year. These spikes are clearly non-physical — for one thing ice doesn’t melt that suddenly, nor does it refreeze that suddenly, not on a sufficiently large basis to produce spikes like that, not several times in one year and not in any of the other years. Just thought you’d like to know.
rgb
bsk says:
May 13, 2012 at 5:02 am
You should link this in the article for posterity, Serezze now says ice free by 2030.
The slowest death spiral in history…
It is ice free in some models, which is a terrible tragedy for all those simulated polar bears and seals. Don’t worry, in the next round of models we’ll find new, previously un-modelled parameters to consider which will knock today’s modelled temperatures and catastrophes back into line with observation, while retaining the carefully fitted hind-cast curves. This way the inevitable lapse into thermogeddon will be pushed back a few years, at least until more new factors can be implemented to explain why it has not happened yet. It’s only a matter of refinement, increased resolution and more money, see. Most importantly, more money. Models are very costly to run, especially when you need lots of runs of them to average together (smooths out out the unsightly bumps which people might mistake for incorrectly modelled natural variability).
JB, UK MET office..
AGW predictions, like televangelist prophecies, are never held to very serious standards. AGW predictions seem to only be accurate if they are made about things that have already happened.
I think you do real scientists a grave disservice by mentioning them in the same breath.
So the arctic might return to its normal ice free state…These people need to get a sense of history, the arctic has had no ice cap for most of earth’s existence.
This is great. An archive of bold predictions. Let’s call ’em out and cash ’em or trash ’em.
Some particularly apropos reading here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Prophecy_Fails
Though I must admit, when studying this at college it never ceased to make me chuckle to think about a UFO really turning up and taking a very surprised Festinger, Riecken and Schachter with it.
bsk says:
May 13, 2012 at 5:02 am
“You should link this in the article for posterity, Serezze now says ice free by 2030.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/07/16/266463/arctic-ice-at-record-low-nsidc-director-serreze-ice-free-summer-by-2030-downward-spiral/?mobile=nc
Nice.
Dr. Serezze has gone from death spiral to downward spiral so that’s good news, right? Possibly over the next couple of years, we will then hear about ice spiral from cyclonic wind and ocean currents which of course will be ignored by the headline seeking media; and the (pseudo) scientists will have effectively backed off from their attention-whore relationship with MSM. And none too soon.
So: Death Spiral to Downward Spiral to Ice Spiral. You heard it here first.
Wait! Here’s another “predication”. You just can’t make this stuff up! http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52896
‘Elders of science’
Invoking Lovecraft?
bsk says:
May 13, 2012 at 4:53 am
“I think this is a great post, but there were many other “predictions” made. Let’s remember a few more!”
From the link
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/286/5446/1828.summary
I took this summary:
“According to reports in this issue of Science (pp. 1934 and 1937) and the 15 December issue of Geophysical Research Letters, the arctic ice pack is not only shrinking in area but rapidly thinning as well. The big question now is what’s causing the shrinkage: natural polar climate fluctuations or global warming due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. If it’s all natural, the loss of arctic ice should eventually reverse, but if global warming is at fault, the entire ice pack will eventually disappear, with drastic climate implications for the Northern Hemisphere. ”
I find the last sentence very intriguing as it gives a test for global warming theory:
” if global warming is at fault, the entire ice pack will eventually disappear,”
“If it’s all natural, the loss of arctic ice should eventually reverse, “
I suggest the measure of “nearly ice-free” should be that the minimum extent in 2012 is no more than 10 % of the largest minimum extent of the last 30 years. I feel the “10 %” and “largest minimum” terms of this measure are generous to Dr. Serreze, Perhaps he would care to comment? Or commit 10 % of his pension to a fund distributed to those in fuel poverty?
I always find it interesting that the melting ice is assumed to be the result of global warming, ie. CO2. Why not the opposite? Maybe the melting ice is due only to a warmer Arctic. Maybe the warmer temperatures of the last 30 years are the result of that warming rather than the cause. How could that be?
Well, if the Arctic warmed then the flow of heat from the equator to the pole would slow down. This would, in turn, warm the NH which lies in between. Now, if this was true one should see less warming in the SH since the Antarctic has not warmed. Low and behold, that is the case.
In fact, the warming in the SH only shows about .6C warming per doubling of CO2 and that includes other possible natural warming factors. Now, where have we seen that number before?
Now, that still leaves the question of what has caused the Arctic to warm. I have seen a few theories put forth but I don’t think we really know the answer.
You know his statement WAS correct :”At this rate. . . . ” At that rate, ice WOULD melt by 2012 — a FACTUAL statement. Another factual statement is that most WUWT bloggers are incapable of understanding simple English.
From last year:
A decline to “4.8 [million sq km] is the actual PIOMAS, model-based prediction” for 2012.
As always, the models were wrong.
Looking at the sea ice reference page I have a question – Why haven’t the anomaly charts been updated for over a month now?
Quite a dramatic pose of Hansen without handcuffs. Hansen says they have until the election this year to avoid the big tipping point. If they don’t avoid the tipping point by then it may not happen.
Old44 asked: “If the Arctic sea ice reflects 80% of the suns heat, how much does the Antarctic cap and sea ice reflect?” You have to use climate change logic and math to make it work.
I should have said Essentially, Hansen is saying
Caruba-lies says:
May 13, 2012 at 7:28 am
You know his statement WAS correct :”At this rate. . . . ” At that rate, ice WOULD melt by 2012 — a FACTUAL statement.
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!! You funny man.
Julienne Stroeve, once told me she would consider anything less than 1 million sq km…….ice free
That’s the size of Egypt….
…or the size of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas combined
or 2/3 the size of the entire Gulf of Mexico
If that’s what they consider ice free………………………………
Other meteorologists in Federal service with inadequate demonstrations of proficiency are required to undergo retraining or terminaton of employment as a meteorologist if they bust too many forecasts. Perhaps it is time for someone to ask this forecaster to remedy his incompetence by undergoing remedial training, resigning his position, or be terminated as a federal employee.
JJB MKI says:
May 13, 2012 at 6:30 am
It is ice free in some models, which is a terrible tragedy for all those simulated polar bears and seals. …
Love It!
Headlines:
NYT:
(New York) MASS EXTINCTION OF ARCTIC DENIZENS LIKELY ACCORDING TO MODEL STUDIES BY Andrew Revvedup
Scientists today have reported that mass extinctions of modelled populations of polar bears are likely according to the latest climate models run with modelled estimates of populations based on varying numbers of modelled polar bears. “The average “mean polar bear” doesn’t have the proverbial chance of a snowball in hell of being able to survive our climate models”, says lead researcher, Gavin Hansen-Serreze. Prof. Hansen-Serreze was asked how his models compared to direct observtions from the arctic regions, but he didn’t see that the question was relevant. “The beauty of modelling in the modern computer age is that you can now exactly reproduce what will happen in nature, its causes and solutions, without ever leaving your office. Isn’t science wonderful? “, he stated. Prof. Hansen-Serreze was interviewed on his way to Washington to lobby for more resources to study the imminent extinction of modelled arctic fauna.
Guardian:
{London) WORLD WILDLIFE FUND DEMANDS END TO MASS EXTINCTIONS PREDICTED BY CLIMATE MODELS, ANNOUNCES MAJOR CORPORATE FUNDRAISER.
Prince Charles, patron, announced that he will spearhead another campaign on behalf of the World Wildlife Fund is order to raise money from institutional and corporate donors, to further the work needed to prevent the mass extinctions of modelled polar bear populations in arctic regions. Palace officials also indicated Charles would be making a tour of commonwealth nations later this year to raise the spectre of the demise of modelled arctic fauna with school students, and encourage them to bring home how important these modelled populations are to the delicate balance of the world’s ecosystems. The WWF would be sending along donation boxes to be given to schools with along with a poster of “Mr. White”, the average mean polar bear, who is the representative bear used as the proxy for all bears in the climate model extinction scenarios. Charles was photographed today in Piccadilly Circus alongside a large stuffed caricature of Mr. White. When asked about the campaign, Charles explained, “its extremely important to the world that these mass extinctions do not occur.” ” We can’t afford to lose even a single Mr. White. Mum agreed that it would be best that I get about and see what could be done, especially, away from London”, he said.
Ha!
Caruba-lies says:
May 13, 2012 at 7:28 am
So do you think his *RATE* might have been just a wee bit off when modeled?
I think the only “death spiral” going on around here is my receding hairline.