Guest post by Scott Gates
Much as with the UK – where their “drought” is demonstrated by severe flooding … in Minnesota it is much the same.
The government forecasters (NOAA) claims we’re in a long term moderate to severe drought ……… LINK HERE – pic Here:
…. the REALITY is far different …
LINK HERE to last 30 days rainfall – pic here:
LINK HERE to Normal 30 day rainfall – pic here:
Most of the “Moderate to Severe Long Term drought area has seen 200% to 600% of “normal” rainfall over last 30 days.
LINK HERE – pic here:
An interesting – to me – observation is the precip pattern from Southern to Northern MN and the Eastern Dakotas almost exctly matches the normal precip pattern – just in much higher numbers of total precip. CAGW proponents will try to tell us this is because of all the extra water vapor due to warmer temps – which would of course be pretty ridiculous because then we wouldn’t have had drought the last appx 1 year with extreme precip and snow a year earlier.
What it shows – to me as a layman – again, is that it is weather patterns, both longer term but also the minutia of each days weather – where the fronts are, what the winds are doing, how the jet stream is flowing, where the moisture is coming, what the temp gradients are etc etc that are what is determining the weather – not some ridiculous theory based on computer models with garbage inputs.
Heck – even the SHORT TERM weather models – looking 7 days out or less – cannot usually agree. My anecdotal experience form occasional looks is that the European ECMWF model is usually more accurate in my area than the US models.
And while that precip has been steady throughout the spring so far – the last 24 hours shows it is a change in weather patterns not “climate” underlying all – weather patterns change and with them so too does the “weather” …. if it was “climate” change we would see increasingly frequent and sustained weather change with a trend in one direction … we have not … a year ago (2010-2011) the winter in the area saw record snowfall – then “moderate to severe drought” thru the summer, fall and 2011-2012 winter … yet now we’ve seen the weather pattern change again and are seeing huge rain events such as this:
Storm total (appx last 24 hours) – screen save from my GRLevel3 – over 10″ in some areas :
Monsoon rains and yet we are in moderate to severe drought. But it must just be a few recent extreme events like last 24 hours that caused this – right?
Nope:
Past week – majority of area 300-600% above normal over most of southern MN – 3-5″ above normal
Past 14 days – majority 300-500% of normal – 2-5″ above normal
Past 30 days – majority 200-400% of normal – 3-5+” above normal
Past 60 days – majority 150-300% of normal – 2-6″ above normal
Past 90 days – majority 150-300% of normal – 4-6″ above normal
Past 180 days – majority 125-200% of normal – 2-6″ above normal
E M Smith ,
I used to think that Agenda 21 was a paranoid fantasy of militia types . Until I looked into it . Unfortunately , most people don’t realize what it’s all about and , apparently , aren’t interested in finding out . After all , as you say in your blog , sustainability sounds so good and reasonable . Some folks are beginning to wisen up , though .
Neil Jordan says:
May 8, 2012 at 7:20 am
Re: LKMiller says:
May 8, 2012 at 5:47 am
“Another misleading map is the US Drought Monitor”
A decimal error – annual rainfall on the Oregon coast is 60 inches to 100 inches per year.
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LKMiller “. . . east central WA & OR, . . .”
Neil Jordan “. . . on the Oregon coast . . .” and “A decimal error …”
There is a major mountain range between east central and coastal WA & OR so the error here is about 200 miles +/- about 75 miles. Round numbers, no decimals.
In the news of the French election, Hollande is quoted in Bloomberg:
Googling the words “austerity” and “sustainability” I found this gem from UN EcoSoc Mar 13, 2012 Qatar.
You see, Sustainability (Agenda21) means austerity, But we can’t have sustainability if we have premature austerity. (IOW: “Don’t stop the gravy train before I pay for my villa.”) /sarc
Friends, just follow the money!
I’m always amused by the emphasis placed on “abnormal” weather. I’m strictly an amateur devotee of the weather although I’ve been fairly obsessive about my devotion, at least for my local environs. In over six decades of monitoring the local happenings the weather event that has been almost the most rare, exceeded only by tornadoes which we’ve never had one in my lifetime or long before, is the “normal day” ie a day when the actual high, low, and precipitation match exactly the long term averages. I can remember only one year when it occurred twice and many years where it never happened at all. Although some stretches run closer to “normal” and others depart from it “extremely” weather that is actually “normal’ is as scarce as hens teeth, at least here in Southern MN. I don’t possess the skills or patience to attempt it myself, but perhaps one of the dedicated number crunchers out there could do an analysis to quantify exactly how common “normal” conditions are on a national or global basis. It wouldn’t add much to human knowledge but would at least offer the opportunity to counter the flood of PR propaganda about how “extreme” the climate is becoming.
The drought monitor is valid last Tuesday. None of the heavy rain over the past week would have been included. Hope this clears things up.
Re John F. Hultquist says:
May 8, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Neil Jordan says:
May 8, 2012 at 7:20 am
Re: LKMiller says:
May 8, 2012 at 5:47 am
“Another misleading map is the US Drought Monitor”
“A decimal error – annual rainfall on the Oregon coast is 60 inches to 100 inches per year.”
Hopefully this rainfall map image (there are many others on line) will clear up my comment for Oregon rainfall:
http://classbrain.com/artstate/publish/oregon_precipitation_map.shtml
There are actually two mountain ranges that intercept moisture flowing eastward from the Pacific. The Coast Range intercepts first, resulting in coastal rainfall exceeding 100 inches per year. The Willamette Valley is in the rain shadow, getting substantially less rainfall but still enough for both major universities to have mascots with webbed feet. The Cascade Range intercepts most of the remaining moisture, leaving the eastern half of the state with rainfall in the 6 to 10 inches of rainfall that I commented on.
Drought is a cumulative shortfall in precipitation.
So the critical measures of a drought are how long and how severe. That allows us to quantify the depth of the drought.
I do not have the relevant data, but it does not seem impossible that the area has a precipitation deficit that still exceeds the recent heavy rains, so that it may be quite reasonable to claim a drought is still in effect despite these rains.
A perfect example of reality aping fiction. George Orwell wrote about doublethink and doublespeak in his book 1984, and everyone thought he was exaggerating. But now doublespeak is an everyday event.
In 1984 the Ministry of Truth changes history and broadcasts lies. In 2012, the Ministry of Truth has been replaced by the IPCC.
.
Neil Jordan says:
May 8, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Re John F. Hultquist says:
May 8, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Neil Jordan says:
May 8, 2012 at 7:20 am
Re: LKMiller says:
May 8, 2012 at 5:47 am
“Another misleading map is the US Drought Monitor”
“A decimal error – annual rainfall on the Oregon coast is 60 inches to 100 inches per year.”
Guess I’m confused why you commented in the first place. The yellow colored area on the map is quite clearly what is known as the “mid-Columbia Basin.” It is an extremely dry place under normal conditions. The US Climate Monitor is calling it a drought area, when these are the normal conditions for this area. My point is that this is bogus.
Well aware of the wet Coast Range where, in some areas, annual precip tops 150″.
I’ve lived on both sides of the hill, currently in the Willamette Valley, and much prefer the “dry” side with 300 plus sunny days a year and reliable irrigation. Could grow almost anything, except citrus.
etudiant says:
May 8, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Drought has never been a cumulative shortfall in precipitation until recently, it has always been a long period with no rain. This can be checked in any english dictionaries and wildlife programmes that use be on air. What next, when it rains it’s flooding? When it snows it’s a blizzard? When it’s windy it’s a hurricane?
E.M.Smith says:
May 8, 2012 at 8:02 am
Sums it up.
Look whose running NOAA; It was once a science based bureau but now it’s only a mouthpiece for a federal government that lies to further the climate change agenda. Same goes for the weather channel–Why do you think the WC runs and reruns their weather disaster serials. The public is so stupid they start to believe these disasters are increasing. It’s nothing but pure propaganda.
Certainly there are droughts, and a real droughts have consequences; but months ago, the US Drought Monitor lost my respect. Even before latest rainfall, lakes, ponds and marshes had water levels that had not been seen in year. Last week, a neighbor got stuck in his backyard with his lawn mower — the ground was so soaked. Grass, bushes and trees are extremely green. Farmers are harvesting record crops, but U.S. Drought Monitor is telling us that we have severe drought?
Jim says on May 8, 2012 at 12:41 pm: “The drought monitor is valid last Tuesday. None of the heavy rain over the past week would have been included. Hope this clears things up.”
The drought monitor may be valid in its models, but not in reality. Your comment would be relevant if last week we were truly experiencing a severe drought. But even before this latest rainfall, water levels were fine, crops were growing nicely, and it was difficult to mow lawns due to moisture. Let’s save the term severe drought when there are big issues — such as the 1930s when many prairie lakes in Minnesota dried up. Today, those lakes are full and teeming with fish.
Jim … you must have missed my comments at the end … that for the past 7, 14, 30, 60, 90 and 180 periods precip in the area has rum from 125% to 600+% of normal.
That would be 6 months.
For the past 60 and 90 day periods precip in the area has run from 150% to 300% of normal.
What has the “drought monitor” shown during this period:
Here is a animation of the last 90 days … a period when precip was running 150% to 300% above normal:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/12_week.gif
And the last 45 days – when precip was in the range of 200% to 400% of normal:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/6_week.gif
Watch closely – as the drought rating moved from Severe Short Term to Severe Long Term drought conditions in April, despite both a nearly 6 month history at that point of above average precip – AND the more current history was showing preip at 200%-400% of normal.
Not sure exactly where Jim was getting his numbers from, because until recently much of southeast Minnesota has been 6 to 9 inches below normal since August 1, 2011 (http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/drought_2012.htm). Until the recent rains, the heaviest rain fell on February 28th and February 29th and a good majority of that water ended up in the rivers. This drought was definitely affecting the river and stream flows and also the ground water levels. The vegetation was not really affected because the top soils had moisture and it was early in the growing season so water demand was low, but the sub soils were very dry. Many of the caves were starting to dry up. If we would have had any extended dry spell, there were no reserves for the plants to use. Fortunately, over the last two weeks, we have had enough rain to cause some improvements. By the way, I would have termed the droughts in 1930s as extraordinary (D4) than severe (D2) which has a frequency of occurrence about every 5 to 10 years.
Matt G says: May 8, 2012 at 4:56 pm
“Drought has never been a cumulative shortfall in precipitation until recently, it has always been a long period with no rain. This can be checked in any english dictionaries”
tjfolkerts,
Excellent hairsplitting!
However, this is 2012, and the definition of drought from my handy on-line dictionary is:
a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall; a shortage of water resulting from this.
FYI, we’re not bleeding people when they get sick any more, or using phrenology to diagnose personality traits.
We all know what “drought” means. And those of us who are reasonably educated know that droughts move from place to place over time, as do floods. They all happen intermittently. Attempting to prop up the discredited notion that CO2 causes climate change may work at pseudo-science blogs like RealClimate, where they believe in droughtfloods. But not here.
Basically, the data presented states:
1) it was dry up through the end of April
2) it rained a lot the first week of May
3) it is not dry anymore.
And this noteworthy why?
No …. you WERE in a moderate to severe drought up through the end of April. BEFORE the monsoon rains.
“Monsoon rains and yet we are in moderate to severe drought”
The first week of May (“past week”) was 3-5″ above normal. If we subtract the 3-5″ during that wet week from the previous data, we see that the rainfall is somewhere around normal going back from the end of April.
So YES! if you subtract the recent 3-5″ extreme rainfalls, then we see that those monsoon rainfalls were indeed the cause of the excess for the last 6 months! Yes, this one week of rain has skewed the results for the entire past 6 months! Without that one wet week, the six month total is -1″ to +” from normal. (Granted that still doesn’t sound like much of a drought, but the devil is in the details.)
@tjfolkerts: This is the point I was trying to make. If you subtract the extremely heavy rains last week (which weren’t factored into last week’s drought monitor), there was a rainfall deficit in the area. Temperatures also factor, as well as the lack of prolonged snow cover last winter. Many stream flows were at or near record lows for a time. Agricultural effects from drought are usually not realized until late summer or fall. And as another commenter pointed out, D2 merely means dryness of 1 in 5 to 1 in 10 years. It doesn’t mean lakes must be drying up, trees dying, etc.
@tjfolkerts
The “data” shows that, EXCLUDING MAY, the statewide averages for precip:
Last 30 days = 128% of normal (April)
60 days = 115% of normal (Mar-April)
90 days = 127% of normal (Feb-April)
120 days = 119% of normal (Jan-April)
150 days = 112% of normal (Dec-April)
Precipitation, EXCLUDING APRIL, across the state averaged 118% of normal over the previous 120 days in April, AND April precipitation for first 3 weeks was appx. 110% to 350% of normal across majority of the state.
Despite both previous 120 days averaging 118% of normal AND the month or April averaging 110% to 350% over majority of the state – the drought indicator was increased in mid-April from “Short Term Severe” to “Long Term Severe” …
http://climate.umn.edu/doc/weekmap/weekmap_120423.htm
http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp
just look here:
http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/drought_2012.htm
“Special note regarding recent rains: Updated Tuesday – May 8, 2012
An updated U.S. Drought Monitor depiction will not be released until Thursday, May 10. However recent rains assure that categorical improvements are in order in many Minnesota counties, especially those where last week’s rainfall exceeded the weekly average by two or more inches. Because transpiration (plant water use) is not yet underway on our agricultural landscapes, last week’s rainfall was nearly completely net gain; improving soil moisture supplies, stream flows, and lake and wetland levels. The only sustaining drought impact in southern Minnesota are somewhat low water levels on our larger lakes, especially land-locked basins that are strongly tied to ground water.
Many Minnesota counties are designated as undergoing Moderate to Severe drought (map at right). In northeast Minnesota, the drought is due to the lingering impact of precipitation deficits accrued during the 2010 growing season and spotty rainfall in 2011. Elsewhere around the state, significant late-summer and autumn 2011 precipitation shortfalls led to rapidly deteriorating hydrologic conditions.”
Isn’t so hard to comprehend.
Anthony could have read it and put the “paper” into the trashcan instead flipping bits in the internet…
@MFKBoulder
First – it is not a “paper” – it is a layman’s commentary, however one backed by government data.
2nd – as with tjfolkerts you too seem to fail to grasp the reason for the commentary – the details.
The May rains are largely irrelevant. Since it appears you dd not read my post immediately above I encourage you to do so now.
NOT INCL the MAY rains, precipitation has been above normal for the 30, 60, 90, 120 and 150 day periods prior … during this time of above average rainfall, and when rainfall was further increasing, in mid April the drought indication was increased from “short term severe” to “long term severe”.
So MFKBoulder – simple question:
With precip above average the prior 5 months, and increasing further above average in April’s first 3 weeks, why did the drought classification go from “Short Term Severe” to “Long Term Severe”?
Huttner who writes the updraft blog just regurgitates the party line on CAGW. You’ll certainly never see him asking critical questions of the establishment such as the lack of statistical warming over the last 15 years.
The really amusing thing is that up until last summer when rainfall really tapered off we had been hearing about how MN was becoming warmer and wetter. A mere 8 months of that pattern turned into “drought” but as Richard M points out that really meant very little to people’s lives except for some snow tourists in the north of the state. Commuting for the rest of us and snow removal budgets certainly benefited. Arguably the precipitation pattern was near ideal for agriculture and first the first time in a couple (few?) years the Red River valley didn’t flood nor did the southwest metro crossings over the Minnesota (Hwy 101 and CR41). Now with most of the spring planting already done and ahead of schedule we’re getting needed rain. Aside from some whiny folks on lake Minnetonka –I weep, truly I do– I think most people are pretty happy with our bout of very minor drought.
Scott Gates says:
May 9, 2012 at 7:09 pm
So MFKBoulder – simple question:
With precip above average the prior 5 months, and increasing further above average in April’s first 3 weeks, why did the drought classification go from “Short Term Severe” to “Long Term Severe”?
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My crude guess is:
Short time sevre means problems ahead in the upcoming crop-season
Long Term Severe means: no problem at the moment; trouble might ahead with the current water withdrawl (and percipitation remains low).
AFAIR is the Minnesota groundwater balance goverend by winter percipitation. With “lingering impact of precipitation deficits accrued during the 2010 growing season and spotty rainfall in 2011” there might be long term effects (darinage of aquifers) where the short term conditions turn out to be more “comforatable”.
Looking at
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/current.html
I saw that my crude guess was failry good.