by Joe Bastardi
Being I am branded as a “denier”, I am having trouble dismissing the relevance of the tree ring studies that challenge the hockey stick, in light of the magnitude of the weight against co2 having any relevance to the climate.
I am hoping Dr. Mann can clear some things up for me, a PSU meteo grad that as I understand is no longer welcome in our department because of my outspoken stance on the climate change issue. A response here can also enlighten the other Neanderthals, some of them apparently devious enough to fool entire departments so they have PHDs, as to the latest “situation” with you and Andy Revkin. Andy, I am hoping this is not too “divisive or toxic”.
You tweeted that this graph, which has a version that shows no hockey stick was “largely irrelevant”
Here is the tweet:
And yet we see that the Chinese find no hockey stick in their studies:
In light of the Chinese studies, how can you say the other finding is largely irrelevant?
In addition you are asking us to believe that a gas that is 1/400th of the greenhouse gasses in a mixture ( air) that has 1/1000th of the heat capacity of the ocean,
WHICH IS BY FAR THE GREATEST CONTRIBUTOR TO THE NUMBER ONE GREENHOUSE GAS, WATER VAPOR, is somehow so relevant its pushing around the climate system. Even more remarkable is that this gas ( co2 if you have not guessed) has a specific gravity of 1.5 that of air, heats and COOLS faster than air, has different radiation properties and according to NASA satellite data, does not mix well.
Add to that the fact that in that mixture, air, it occupies .004 and according to DOE, mans total contribution is 3 to 5 %,
meaning using the high end 5% we have contributed .0002 to a mixture that has 1/1000th of the heat capacity of a prime source of the number one greenhouse gas , water vapor, that is 400 times the amount of co2.
Since I am an actual graduate of PSU meteo, and would like to again show my face there, I would hope you can explain to me and the rest of the “denial machine” how assigning such a high value to what would appear by the PHYSICAL evidence to be a non factor is somehow consistent with 2 studies showing NO HOCKEY STICK being largely irrelevant.
Again here is my problem: we have 2 studies showing no hockey sticks, they are irrelevant, yet the sheer weight of evidence AGAINST co2 being able to push the climate around seems to be of a much greater magnitude than the 2 studies.
And just for good measure, perhaps you can help us deniers with the apparent misconception with the ocean and sun correlation and the disconnect to co2 seen here:
TOP LEFT CO2 VS TEMP top right global temp since pdo flip bottom left ocean vs temp correlation pdo plus amo bottom right solar correlation
ocean strength of correlation is .83 solar is .57 co2 is .44
I look forward to the response convincing me that by looking at all sides of the issues, and reading just about everything you have done, that I am wrong, so I recant my Neanderthal views, and once again be able to sing “ may no act of ours bring shame” in our alma mater, since after all I am a graduate of PSU.
I am also a letter winner, so along with sweating out classes, I sweat and bled on our wrestling mats, so you might understand why my relationship with my University and its most famous member of our esteemed meteorology department is important to me.
Joe Bastardi
State Collge, PA
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As a fellow met….bravo! You represent a LARGE number of us (a majority maybe?) and are often shackeled by politics to voice our opinion….Please continue the good fight my friend! And good lucK with your quest to grace PSU again soon! 🙂
Robbie says:
May 8, 2012 at 12:06 pm
“Even in the “Cold” phase planet Earth is way too warm currently”
___________________________________
OH?
So you would like to see a 1C or 2C drop in temperature so we can duplicate the famines and revolutions seen during the period between 1350 and 1900.
Is that what you want?
Maybe Micheal Mann can be the new “Schticky” spokeman instead of “Vince”.
If I remember correctly , Buzz Aldrin had a way of dealing with people who accused him of being a liar.
After reading this post, I would warn anyone against calling a man who is capable of twisting your head off and putting in your pocket for safe keeping a ‘denier’
(I am sure JB would never do such a thing)
Fred says, “His 15 minutes of fame are over.”
I disagree a little. If the dendrochronological graphs evidencing what is called proof of warming were not so important and powerful for the gravy train, the warmistas would have already dumped or sidelined the dendrochronologists with their alleged treemometers. Also, there seems to be a some money out there testing whether Mann can be the public relations “face” of the warmista industries. Hansen was sidelined about two years ago when he stated the obvious that cap and trade is a scam that will not decrease CO2 emissions. The only time the corporate-left media will touch Hansen these days is if he can manage to get arrested and provide a photo-op.
Joe, my comment about sports was not directed to you, my mistake in not making that clear, it was for the post that was knocking money being spent on sports and just showing that in reality the sports programs supports themselves(i know some sports lose money but the big sports make a profit to offset those other sports).
i agree with you Joe 100% that sports indeed are a very good thing for people to participate in at whatever level they desire, and indeed MOST athletes are students first and just like the rest of their education the things they learn in athletics serve them well in the rest of their lives.
Robbie says:
May 8, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Mr. Bastardi: Can you explain to us why global temperatures are still high?
The PDO, AO and the sun has turned to cooling. So where are the cool temperatures from the eighties or seventies? I asked you that same question before here somewhere on WUWT in another one of your blogs. Never got a reply….
“Still high “compared with what and when? It is high compared to the LGM, and the LIA minima, but low compared to the maxima of the early Holocene. Minoan, Roman and Medieval warm periods. So, it is quite possible that Mr. Bastardi thinks your question is a straw man issue.
You first have to show the planet’s mean temperature actually is high given current conditions before there is any need to explain it. Since it is self evident that no one really does know how the “climate” works – there would be no call for the current debate otherwise – we can conclude that there is no one on the planet that can say with empirical authority what the planet’s temperature really ought to be at present.
He’ll laugh at you, Joe. He has impunity granted to him by the media. Skeptics can’t turn the media. Alarmists can’t turn the public. Give Revkin a call and ask for an interview. Posting in an echo chamber like this accomplishes nothing.
Well done Joe, as always to the point.
Mann meets the Hulk,mann runs, hide’s under big Al’s coat…. LOL,LOL,
The “letter” one gets as a PSU Letterman is actually an “S” for a 2nd year letterman. And it comes in the form of a blanket. A blazer is given the first year and sports the Nittany Lion emblem, which has varied over the years. A three year letter winner receives a ring, but I never made it that far! I give to my Coach’s endowment but never to the University, soley because of Michael Mann. I have a different letter for him.
Boris said:
“Mr. Bastardi,
1. Yamal and China are regions and thus not representative of the entire globe or hemisphere.”
Precisely, Boris! Now you’re getting it!
My PSU letterman certificate is actually signed by my Coach and Joe Paterno, who was briefly the Athletic Director, until he figured out what a horrible job that can be.
“And yet we see that the Chinese find no hockey stick in their studies:”
So either the hockey stick based on rings from “a” tree is a local phenom, i.e. a regional climatic issue OR the Medieval Warming Period (MWP) was everywhere else like China. And now we know where the AGW believers got the idea for claiming the MWP was just a regional phenom, they were PROJECTING their accusation because the hockey stick derived graph was the regional climatic anomaly.
@Boris says: May 8, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Mr. Bastardi,
1. Yamal and China are regions and thus not representative of the entire globe or hemisphere.
////
Have you told Michael Mann that?
Joe Bastardi,
Your contribution is appreciated. Thanks.
John
Is Mann still on sabbatical from PSU for the purpose of improving the communication of IPCC centric CAGWism to the increasingly skeptical public?
I think the more Mann works on his communication skills the more skeptical the public becomes. (I am grinning)
John
Boris says:
May 8, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Mr. Bastardi,
1. Yamal and China are regions and thus not representative of the entire globe or hemisphere.
_________________________
So why the heck did Mann use JUST 12 trees in his infamous hocky stick????
The discussion of that is here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/06/east-anglia-climate-research-unit-shown-to-be-liars-by-results-of-latest-foia-ruling-and-investigation/
2. Your theories on CO2 and heat capacity are not relevant. Also, I’m not sure why that chart from NASA makes you think that CO2 is not well-mixed.
He is correct CO2 is not “well mixed” it can not be because it has continuous input sources, sequestering sources, not particularly good mixing and it is heavier than air. Somewhere on WUWT I have gone through that argument (many times) Richard S. Courtney has a peer reviewed paper on it behind a pay wall.
3. What are your correlations for solar, ocean and co2 for the last 30 years? 50? 100?
That one is easy to answer. Just ask:
Milankovitch: http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/07/in-defense-of-milankovitch-by-gerard.html
Peer reviewed paper: http://earthweb.ess.washington.edu/roe/GerardWeb/Publications_files/Roe_Milankovitch_GRL06.pdf
Or Dr Feynman: (NASA) http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/features.cfm?feature=1319
Peer reviewed paper: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006JD007462.shtml
or Dr. Shaviv
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2005/2004JA010866.shtml
http://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/13/7/pdf/i1052-5173-13-7-4.pdf
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2003/2003JA009997.shtml
or Dr. Ilya G. Usoskin
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2005/2004JA010946.shtml
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006aogs….2..321U
or Dr. Muhong Chen
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2005.12.003
or Dr. George C. Reid
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v329/n6135/abs/329142a0.html
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1991/90JD02774.shtml
Maine 6800-Year Peat Bog Core Shows Distinct Solar Correlation – http://notrickszone.com/2012/03/06/new-maine-6800-year-peat-bo-core-shows-climate-correlated-with-solar-activity-expect-more-frequent-new-england-flooding-ahead/
or Vukcevic.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/HmL.htm (CET = a long running temp record in England)
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/TMC.htm
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-NAP.htm
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFCfiles.htm
Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic
THROUGHOUT HISTORY, or
LAMENTS FOR A MISSING CURVE
o tempora
o mores
o absens virga flecti
(Cicero, Oratio in Catilinam Prima, 63 BC)
[Oh times!
Oh customs!
Oh missing (hockey) bent stick!]
Dictes moy ou n’ en quel pays
Est de hocquet le bâton
Qui beaulté ot trop plus qu’ humaine.
Mais ou sont les neiges d’ antan?
(François Villon, Le Grand Testament, 1462)
[Tell me where, in which country
Is the hockey stick
Which had a beauty too much more than human?
Oh, where are the snows of yesteryear!]
(greetings from a Penn State professor, Joe)
@DJ (11:17 am)
Half a million? What school are you talking about? Must not have a decent football team. Probably not even FBS. Half a million is RIDICULOUSLY LOW for a top-tier college football coach. The coach at my alma mater makes 4 million, and took his team to Tue national championship game, where they lost to a team whose coach makes 5 million.
Meanwhile, those teams brought tens of millions of dollars in revenue into the GENERAL budgets of their universities. From ticket sales, television revenue, and licensing. And much of that went to education, including, Yes, science. And if the university wasn’t paying top dollar for a great coach, it wouldn’t have got all that revenue. So stop moaning about those outrageous coach’s salaries and just be glad that MOST of the income generated by college sports is going to SEC schools, which generally don’t subscribe to the CAGW hoax.
Perhaps David Appell will answer for Mann?
Mike Mangan says:
May 8, 2012 at 1:08 pm
He’ll laugh at you, Joe. He has impunity granted to him by the media. Skeptics can’t turn the media. Alarmists can’t turn the public. Give Revkin a call and ask for an interview. Posting in an echo chamber like this accomplishes nothing.
I doubt he is laughing. He has not responded to direct challenges. His CRU HS team members have been branded liars, and have not responded. No, I think he sweats more and more.
Maybe Michael Mann will let us know which.
PS: Post gives 0.004 AS CO2 %. Needs cleaning up.
Joe, academics such as yourself who represented their colleges as sportsmen and who earned their letters, colours and academic qualifications through honest endeavour, you have my admiration. Keep telling it as you see it, but please don’t hold your breath waiting for a reply from Mann.
As a footnote, us sceptics in New Zealand are very aware of the evidence for the MWP impacting the Southern hemisphere in the same time periods as in the North, despite Mann’s best efforts to ‘disappear’ the MWP.
It’s all very well for us all to agree; for me the mind-blowing component is why the university power brokers continue to support Mann. Their failure to grasp all the elements of academic freedoms. Are they foolish enough to believe they can hold out for ever? The longer this goes on the more discredited they personally and the university become.
Joe, you show a graph from Liu et al. (2011) that is for the central Eastern Tibetan Plateau based on tree rings. I think you should add the actual figure title to the plot so that your readers understand this is a temperature reconstruction for a small region, rather than the entire globe.
REPLY: No comment then about the other Mannian elephants in the room? – Anthony
I think you questions are good and well worth asking, however, I have reservations.
The chinese data do show a hokey stick for the last 1000 years which is the same time period covered by all the well known hockey stick studies.
The second issue is that trees are horrible thermometers. The divergence problem; the non-linear responces; contamination by increases CO2 and the much stronger dependance growth rates have to rainfall are the more fundemental questions. These are the true mountain.