Story submitted by Forrest Mims III, originally published for the San Antonio Express-News
In the early days of this column, concerned readers sent many questions about the earth’s ozone layer, which I began measuring in 1990. Today, public interest in the ozone layer has been replaced by concern about global warming.
Answering questions about global warming requires considerably more space than this 437-word column. So let’s focus in on the temperature history of Texas for now.
The 2011 Texas drought was exacerbated by the highest temperatures since 1895 during June, July and August. Several prominent climate scientists have blamed these record highs on global warming. These claims are puzzling because, in spite of the 2011 record highs, Texas records going back more than a century show slightly more cooling than warming. So I visited the National Climatic Data Center website to review Texas temperature records. The NCDC provides monthly temperature records for 10 Texas regions going back to 1895.
It also provides the average temperature for the entire state.
I retrieved all 12 months of data for each year since 1895 and plotted the average annual temperatures on a chart along with their trend. As shown in the chart, the average temperature of Texas barely changed between 1895 and 2011.
The total warming during those 116 years was a statistically insignificant 0.046 degree Fahrenheit. If the record highs of 2011 are omitted, Texas cooled 0.055 degree from 1895 to 2010.
The NCDC temperature data do not fully account for the enhanced warming of weather stations that have become surrounded by buildings and pavement. This is the heat island effect. Dr. Daniel Boice of the Southwest Research Foundation studied the temperature at New Braunfels and San Antonio from 1946 to 1990. www.swri.org/3pubs/ttoday/fall97/heat.htm
He found that San Antonio has warmed when compared with its smaller neighbor. San Antonio might be several degrees cooler today than in 1885 if no new buildings and roads had been constructed. Why do some scientists insist that Texas is warming when the data show a negligible increase? I don’t know. But I do know that a National Science Foundation program officer told me that applications for atmospheric science grants that do not include a global warming theme stand little chance of acceptance.
Climate scientists are right to be concerned about droughts, especially since no Texas drought since precipitation records were begun around 1870 matches the megadroughts revealed in the rings of bald cypress trees. Those droughts occurred hundreds of years before SUVs and power plants began pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, a process blamed for global warming that has not yet arrived in Texas.
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Forrest Mims III, an expert reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was named one of the 50 Best Brains in Science by Discover Magazine. His science is featured at www.forrestmims.org. Email him at forrest.mims@ieee.org.
Steve, I’ve seen them nesting in distribution ‘line’ equipment (power-factor-correction bank (VAR compensation) on a 3-phase distribution line to be specific); I don’t know that they are too choosy as to a specific species of tree, but I will attempt an ID of same.
PS I also witnessed a mating pair in a small ‘landscape’ tree on company property back about 5 years ago; this is a noted ‘gregarious’ species of bird and they are quite territorial (as observed and as noted in literature) and will dive on humans, as this pair did when I took a closer look at them and their nest. This event also prompted me to invest in a better camera back at that time, something with a viewfinder capable of being viewed in outdoor light (the previous camera had a small flat-panel LCD display on the camera back that ‘washed out’ in daylight!)
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Reblogged this on The GOLDEN RULE and commented:
Note that this story has been submitted by
“Forrest Mims III, an expert reviewer for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was named one of the 50 Best Brains in Science by Discover Magazine. His science is featured at http://www.forrestmims.org. Email him at forrest.mims@ieee.org.”
The highest temps are still in the 20s and 30s. I can see why the temp sustainable development folks have been adjusting the old records out and it is clear why they start most of their charts in the 70s. This must be a fair proxy for the world temps charts
James Sexton says:
April 27, 2012 at 11:22 pm
When we talk TOA we mean incoming–ignoring clouds and all. I’m trying to find out the correct ratio of M cycle variation to GHG IR, but I’ve never seen the latter specified as to peak or daily average. That’s what I’d like to know. Lots of clowns claim significant CO2 amplification in the ice cores, but that’s pretty silly when you’re talking about 100 watts variation over 22ky at the edge of the ice, and 1W GHG IR. Or is it .3W? It makes a difference, you know–from absurd to absurdity squared. –AGF
For those who care, Forrest can be found writing a series of “How can I do that?” articles for the http://www.jameco.com electronics online site. I look forward to his stumpers, they make me dig up old archives in my brain.
Excuse me; On those two points: a) that ‘theory’ was arrived at after a lot of experimentation that has stood up to scrutiny and ‘cross checks’ over the decades/unto the centuries now and b) yes it does.
The numerous factors and linkages may not always be obvious to the casual observer, but, they are there. The more ‘gross’ (or aggregate) effects are even measurable, but. the average layman is probably not familiar with or in most cases even acquainted with the measurement techniques and certainly doesn’t posses the tools/instrumentation to make even the most basic of measurements … once again a little bit of ‘lab’ work (even ‘field’ observations) can go a long ways in dispelling rumor, myth, misconception and reducing speculation.
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Lord, what an exciting week! First the story books about creation can suddenly be updated due to exploding stars illustrated by playful artists, due to Svendmark’s breakthrough hypothesis, and now my childhood electronics circuits book writer family author shows up a day after Anthony transforms in my mind from testy weather guy into a fellow circuit hacker. My early breakthrough circuit was romantically inventive: I turned pill jars into large red LED pilot light boxes I gave to budding girlfriends to put on their bookshelf. There was a symbol of my beating heart when they snuggled into bed at night, hee hee. It blinked for years at 40 beats per minute, nice and calm. Other guys didn’t stand a chance once one of these innocent little trinkets was installed!
Off This Thread – but possibly important if you haven’t seen it, is
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/26/getting-your-mind-right-in-australia-round-2/
our Australian friends trying to untie themselves from many knots.
It’s important – but now : –
PostShow
Dismissive 52%
Alarmed 21%
Concerned 13%
Doubtful 9%
Cautious 4%
Disengaged 1%
about 2025 Z Saturday.
4004 votes counted
I know it’s not Texas but the hottest November day record is still 1968 for Brisbane australia – November is a month before official summer on 1 December.
I remember it well – almost 40 C in a classroom less than a few miles from the sea in the middle of a technical drawing exam – no airconditioned schools in my schooldays – hard to tell the drawing from the sweat.
bj says:
Who were these climate scientists who claimed that Texas was warming? Really?
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Just google Texas and global warming and see for yourself.
Jim
A Metrologist (Metrology is the science of measurement, not to be confused with Meteorology) need not know one thing about Meteorology to understand the potential errors involved using instrumentation (uncalibrated at that) in an unstable environment compared to what is required to certify measurements in a laboratory under controlled conditions, yet it is claimed the SAT record is as reliable. The error bars for surface temperature records are frankly, laughable and if anything is at the very least the result of confirmation bias and statistical gimmicks. I have little doubt others employed in my field would agree.
If climate science had to endure the rigor of an A2LA audit or even basic ISO standards it would not survive the opening meeting. I know of no industry standard the SAT network would qualify for.
Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings.
One common misconception about the 2011 Texas summer is that temperature must have been “higher” than ever before.
In fact the hottest days were not as hot as 1934 or 1980, The reason why the average came out hotter was simply that the heatwave lasted longer, right upto the end of August. By comparison, for instance, the heatwave in 1980 finished on the 10th August.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/03/05/texas-summer-2011-heat-wave-seen-in-perspective/
Forrest;
On your Sun & Sky site, http://www.sunandsky.org/Sun_and_Sky_Data.html , you make much of the Pinatubo effect. How do you respond to this comment
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/16/volcanic-disruptions/#comment-934675 , and the post it is on?
Add the Dismissive 52% and Doubtful 9%, and you’re over the 3:2 mark. Closing in on 2:1!!
So it’s the past ten years when we want to show global cooling and the past 100 for Texas… Brilliant!!
Here are some of mine…
Luling, TX:
http://naturalclimate.wordpress.com/2012/02/17/luling-tx-temp…deconstruction/
Texas:
http://naturalclimate.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/texas-annual-t…cal-components/
Speaking of things climate scientist never mention:
How about that 6 states (out of the 48 continental states) have been cooling since 1895, 3 have no trend at all and another 5 have a miniscule trend of .01F / decade?
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2012/04/29/is-the-usa-warming-the-noaa-data-saysit-depends-part-1/
@Brian H:
On your Sun & Sky site, http://www.sunandsky.org/Sun_and_Sky_Data.html , you make much of the Pinatubo effect. How do you respond to this comment
I read that post when it first appeared and was surprised. My temperature and optical depth data were not massaged or “adjusted,” but my temperature record was not collected in accordance with WMO standards–it’s the temperature measured on the front porch of my little office under the shade of two large trees. The aerosol optical depth data are much more reliable. I just expanded the El Chichon and Pinatubo sections of the 1895-2011 Texas chart in my article. There is a temperature drop associated with both these volcanoes–but there are also drops when no volcanoes occurred. The drop I observed after Pinatubo is real, but it might look less significant the longer my time series continues (now at 22+ years of data). The AOD calibration is traceable to Langley calibrations conducted at Mauna Loa Observatory. I was at MLO after Pinatubo, and the sky was as bad there as here in Texas.There appears to be a volcano signature (from Tambora) in Thomas Jefferson’s temperature measurements at Monticello from 1810-1816. I’ve plotted this and published it in various places, including a comic book I developed for Radio Shack.