From the National Astronomical Observatory Of Japan (via Dr. Benny Peiser of The GWPF)
World May Be Entering Period Of Global Cooling:
The sun may be entering a period of reduced activity that could result in lower temperatures on Earth, according to Japanese researchers.
Officials of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and the Riken research foundation said on April 19 that the activity of sunspots appeared to resemble a 70-year period in the 17th century in which London’s Thames froze over and cherry blossoms bloomed later than usual in Kyoto.
In that era, known as the Maunder Minimum, temperatures are estimated to have been about 2.5 degrees lower than in the second half of the 20th century. The Japanese study found that the trend of current sunspot activity is similar to records from that period.
The researchers also found signs of unusual magnetic changes in the sun. Normally, the sun’s magnetic field flips about once every 11 years. In 2001, the sun’s magnetic north pole, which was in the northern hemisphere, flipped to the south.
While scientists had predicted that the next flip would begin from May 2013, the solar observation satellite Hinode found that the north pole of the sun had started flipping about a year earlier than expected. There was no noticeable change in the south pole.
If that trend continues, the north pole could complete its flip in May 2012 but create a four-pole magnetic structure in the sun, with two new poles created in the vicinity of the equator of our closest star.
Source:The Asahi Shimbun, 20 April 2012
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While there’s some hype in the article, there is this graph from Dr. Leif Svalgaard that shows the current solar polar fields rather weak in comparison to the previous cycles, and not quite flipped yet:
http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Polar-Fields-1966-now.png
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The sun is clearly entering in a prolonged period of minimun activity which will be characterized by a quasi 60-year cycle.
This has been extensively proven in my last publications, for example:
N. Scafetta, “Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle.” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics in press (2012).
http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/Scafetta_JStides.pdf
where an harmonic model of major solar oscillations has been developed and tested on its capabilities to reconstruct major solar patterns during the entire Holocene, which of course can be extended in the future as well.
The main figure is here in the black curve:
http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/scafetta-fig6c-d1.png
The prolonged minimum is due to the combined effect of the minima in the 60 and 115 year solar cycles. This may cause a slight cooling, as shown in the above figure, because of various reasons such as the fact that the 60-year cycle sun was responsible of most the warming from 1970 to 2000.
However, this cooling will not be as deep as the Maunder Minimum, as can be inferred from here
http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/scafetta-fig7.png
because we are at the maximum of the millennial cycle.
This research further confirms my research we have been discussing here many times 🙂
Richard G says:
April 21, 2012 at 4:52 pm
<i.the magnetic polarity of some of the spots seems to be changing from a distinct polarity to a bracketed or confused polarity with +-+ or -+-.
As far as I know this has nothing to do with the polar reversals, just shows how messy the sun can be.
Bruce Cobb says:
April 21, 2012 at 4:48 pm
Meanwhile, those with a vested interest against it will continue to fight it, as their livelihoods and reputations are at stake.
You have this completely backwards. If the Sun were the primary driver of climate, that would make my livelyhood and research field of utmost societal interest and funding would be flowing like wine and honey in paradise. Unfortunately that is not the case.
Man, with all those poles shifting all over the place, it must be a bear to navigate on the sun using just a compass.
beesaman says:
April 21, 2012 at 12:20 pm:
In response to your comment, Dr. Svalgaard, on his research site, is very open with information, presentations, etc.
It is a matter of finding time to learn.
And it is also a matter of discovering something new, and then the press release about that “New” something.
Like the L&P Effect. Now that is one interesting area!
Here is a link to a board that Dr. Svelgaard is so gracious to post to when relevent.
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=855
Nicola Scafetta says:
April 21, 2012 at 4:57 pm
The sun is clearly entering in a prolonged period of minimun activity which will be characterized by a quasi 60-year cycle. This has been extensively proven in my last publications
‘Proven’ is a big and inappropriate word. The sun is entering a prolonged minimum as predicted almost a decade ago on solid physical grounds [not your or other’s cyclomania] by Schatten, Myself, and colleagues. People still interested in your views can go to tallbloke’s blog of ‘independent and profound thinkers’.
Leif Svalgaard says:
April 21, 2012 at 3:49 pm
..The magnetic fields on the surface cause a slight brightening and thus a very small variation [1 in 1000] of the solar output of heat and light. That variation in turn causes a variation of the Earth’s temperature of about 0.1 degree over the solar cycle of varying sunspots. This variation is too small to affect the climate, so many people invent creative ‘feed backs’, ‘triggers’, and other fanciful mechanism to help the sun modulate our climate to their satisfaction..
Well I have a theory bout that..
During the last half of the last century there has been an uptick in solar activity. (now dafunct)
More Earth directed CME’s and more intense solar activity. But the more Earth directed CME’s are we direct our attention today.
.
Solar Storm Dumps Gigawatts into Earth’s Upper Atmosphere
March 22, 2012: A recent flurry of eruptions on the sun did more than spark pretty auroras around the poles. NASA-funded researchers say the solar storms of March 8th through 10th dumped enough energy in Earth’s upper atmosphere to power every residence in New York City for two years.
“This was the biggest dose of heat we’ve received from a solar storm since 2005,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA Langley Research Center. “It was a big event, and shows how solar activity can directly affect our planet.”
Mlynczak is the associate principal investigator for the SABER instrument onboard NASA’s TIMED satellite. SABER monitors infrared emissions from Earth’s upper atmosphere, in particular from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a key role in the energy balance of air hundreds of km above our planet’s surface.
“Carbon dioxide and nitric oxide are natural thermostats,” explains James Russell of Hampton University, SABER’s principal investigator. “When the upper atmosphere (or ‘thermosphere’) heats up, these molecules try as hard as they can to shed that heat back into space.”
That’s what happened on March 8th when a coronal mass ejection (CME) propelled in our direction by an X5-class solar flare hit Earth’s magnetic field. (On the “Richter Scale of Solar Flares,” X-class flares are the most powerful kind.) Energetic particles rained down on the upper atmosphere, depositing their energy where they hit. The action produced spectacular auroras around the poles and significant1 upper atmospheric heating all around the globe.
“The thermosphere lit up like a Christmas tree,” says Russell. “It began to glow intensely at infrared wavelengths as the thermostat effect kicked in.”
For the three day period, March 8th through 10th, the thermosphere absorbed 26 billion kWh of energy. Infrared radiation from CO2 and NO, the two most efficient coolants in the thermosphere, re-radiated 95% of that total back into space..
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/22mar_saber/
Phobias of SW African tigers not the Siberian kind. And in the middle what kind are in Kashmir?
Leif Svalgaard says:
“You have this completely backwards. If the Sun were the primary driver of climate, that would make my livelyhood and research field of utmost societal interest and funding would be flowing like wine and honey in paradise.”
Funding would only be flowing for you like wine and honey if you could conjure how the sun’s actions could lead to more tax and government. Definitely a deadend pursuit.
I’m taking a cautious view. Predictions of the sun don’t seem to be particularly predictive. According to take-it-with-a-grain-of-salt Wikipedia, before 2007, everybody thought cycle 24 would be a very active cycle. Then things didn’t pan out, and they revised the predictions down to a quiet sun.
What I would like to see is an overlay graph of all the predictions for cycle 24 and the dates they were issued. I got the distinct impression that the predictions weren’t based on any theories that held up and that they were just winging it when they made them. This means they didn’t have a clue back then. They had to wait until the sun told them what kind of cycle we’d have, which doesn’t say much for their expertise. Predictions don’t mean much if they’re always getting thrown under the bus. I wouldn’t make much of this new study until we see how its conclusions pan out.
Along with the overlay of graphs of all the predictions, I’d like to see the reasons the minority thought it would be a small cycle and whether or not they had a valid theory to predict with, or whether they happened to be clueless and lucky.
Leif Svalgaard says: April 21, 2012 at 5:06 pm
Leif, one thing is to see that the sun activity was decreasing in 2005 and from there infer a decreasing activity for the future activity, as other scientists have also noted like yourself, another thing is to get that pattern from a solar model capable to hindcast thousands of years, which is what you have not done.
This was the topic discussed in my paper. Moreover, here the issue is what will happen to the climate system, which is also something you have not addressed, but it is addressed in my papers!
Get it Leif, Your tactics to mislead the readers of this blog will not last long!
More and more researchers are agreeing with results clearly stated in my papers.
Gail Combs says: April 21, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Predictions are part of doing science. If we think we understand something (form a hypothesis) we use that understanding to predict the future. If the prediction does not come true then our hypothesis has been falsified. Leif, based on his knowledge of solar physics, predicted cycle 24 would be a weak cycle. So far he has been correct. Hathaway (NASA) did not do nearly as well. http://i55.tinypic.com/2dj2fc9.jpg
WUWT on the subject back in 2008: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/20/new-solar-cycle-24-goalpost-established/
________________
Excellent recall Gail – I too remember this discussion. NASA / Hathaway were predicting a strong SC24 that did not materialize.
Here is a compilation of predictions for SC24. As you can see, there are 45 of them, more than enough to fill a roulette wheel, and they are “all over the map”, so somebody had to be close. Not sure that this supports any conclusion, except fundamental concepts of probability. 🙂
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html
Ladies and Gentlemen, faites vos jeux!
P.S. I have NO opinion on this subject since I have not studied it.
Skill Testing Question – How many people were predicting imminent global cooling a decade ago?
Leif is skirting around the big point here. Of course the poles can reverse at different times, but what is highly possible this cycle is (as stated in my paper) the south pole not reversing at all during sc24 and then finally reversing at sc25 max. This is how two cycles form a grand minimum. A heavily affected cycle goes on with a phase catastrophe that reduces the next cycle. The maunder minimum had two such events most likely which is controversially shown in one paper looking at magnetic cycle lengths of the epoch which lines up with the double solar disruption observed in my theory . We only have one disruption this time around similar to the dalton.
Leif has stated in the past we are NOT heading into a grand minimum….but is changing his tune these days. Don’t let him fool you that he predicted this event if it does happen, plus the dynamo guys have no real mechanism for grand minima but will tell you otherwise.
So what’s with all the “snake bites” on the sun today? I don’t think I remember seeing such symmetrical pairs of groups before.
Steve Goddard is not dead. Alive and well and posting on Real Science
The story http://www.real-science.com/attention-scientist-steven-goddard-dies-at-81
The riposte http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/04/21/real-science-was-hacked/.
I always enjoy Leif’s comments, even though I am not that interested in solar cycles.
Makes a refreshing change from the vague blather and rehashed dogma that emanates from most climate scientists.
Steve from Rockwood says:
“Now that was funny. Leif, I know almost nothing about the sun. Can you provide a link so that some of us can get up to speed?”
That’s OK Steve, Leif knows almost nothing about the Sun as well. He just thinks he does.
Carla says:
April 21, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Solar Storm Dumps Gigawatts into Earth’s Upper Atmosphere
Solar TSI dumps hundreds of millions of Gigawatts into the Earth’s lower atmosphere
TomH says:
April 21, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Funding would only be flowing for you like wine and honey if you could conjure how the sun’s actions could lead to more tax and government
I was talking about the motivation here. Why I would love and pray that ‘it’s the sun, stupid’ because that would make my research so much more worth.
Jeff Mitchell says:
April 21, 2012 at 5:41 pm
before 2007, everybody thought cycle 24 would be a very active cycle.
Along with the overlay of graphs of all the predictions, I’d like to see the reasons the minority thought it would be a small cycle and whether or not they had a valid theory to predict with, or whether they happened to be clueless and lucky.
Not everybody as you well know. Here are the reasons: http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf
In a certain sense, it is not so much a prediction as a validation of the basic theory. If the theory was to have legs, the cycle should be low. So, we are testing the theory here.
Nicola Scafetta says:
April 21, 2012 at 6:03 pm
pattern from a solar model capable to hindcast thousands of years, which is what you have not done.
Neither have you or anybody else with any accuracy. The difference is that we have a reason based on valid physics rather than just cyclomania.
Geoff Sharp says:
April 21, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Leif is skirting around the big point here. Of course the poles can reverse at different times, but what is highly possible this cycle is (as stated in my paper) the south pole not reversing at all during sc24
It is well on its way. If it does reverse in a year or so, that will invalidate all your speculation, right?
Philip Bradley says:
April 21, 2012 at 8:02 pm
I always enjoy Leif’s comments, even though I am not that interested in solar cycles.
Makes a refreshing change from the vague blather and rehashed dogma that emanates from most climate scientists
And from the illiterate pushing their pet theories here.
Gail Combs says: April 21, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Hi Gail, I’ve updated that graph of Hathaway’s predictions here:
http://i39.tinypic.com/34rufj9.jpg
If he makes any more, I don’t know if they can fit.
Geoff Sharp says:
April 21, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Leif has stated in the past we are NOT heading into a grand minimum….but is changing his tune these days
The new element is the Livingston & Penn effect. Which might result in sunspots becoming effectively invisible [or not forming] although most of the magnetic field will still be there as the dynamo will still be running as always and as shown by the cosmic ray modulation being as strong during the Maunder Minimum as now.
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/image022.jpg
Is an interesting graph. While sunspots just wobble back and forth, solar storms ramp up nicely (as we warmed) and then fell off a cliff (about the time things went a bit flat).
I was looking for a similar length CO2 graph, but only found the same one above, here, so made a posting without such a graph, just imagination to fill in the CO2, then made a somewhat “tongue in cheek” posting poking a bit of fun at the whole false causality from correlation mind set:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/04/20/co2-causes-solar-storms/
It is rather remarkable, though, how the warm and cold bumps and dips match between history and the solar storm number (assuming the British Geological Survey has the graph right).
Oh, and in looking for a way to connect Angular Momentum changes to anything interesting on the sun, found a speculative thing that, sadly, will take more physics skill than I have to show “connected or not?”. Anyone wishing to explore such things likely ought to head over to Tallblokes or hit my link (as discussion of such things is a bit ‘fringey’ for a Science site like this one).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_effect
So there IS a direct connection from changes of Angular Momentum to changes of Magnetic state (and the Sun is a very magnetism rich environment); but I have no idea the size and if it’s a pointless ‘side show’ or significant. Anyone wanting a smirk can look at my wandering along trying to ‘connect the dots’ from AM to Magnetism to solar effect, and failing (or giving up on too low a motivation?) here:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/04/18/big-planets-modulate-stars-but-small-planets-cant/
and here:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/04/15/solar-gravity-gradient-torque/
Lots of interesting “connections” and lots of “no answer”; for the simple reason that it takes a Real Physicist ™ to do the Real Math involved, and I’m more a hobbyist “admiring the problem”.
So I’ve not been able to demonstrate that the ‘connections’ found there are relevant, or not, but it was interesting wandering in the woods 😉
E.M.Smith says:
April 21, 2012 at 9:14 pm
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/image022.jpg
Is an interesting graph. While sunspots just wobble back and forth, solar storms ramp up nicely (as we warmed) and then fell off a cliff (about the time things went a bit flat).
The graph is not quite correct. There is now general acceptance of the geomagnetic index on which the graph is based is not calibrated correctly, so the values after 1957 are somewhat too large. Of course, that does not explain why activity now is so low. That is due to the fact that we have returned to conditions around 1900.
The Barnett effect is the magnetization of an uncharged body when spun on its axis.
This was also suggested later by Blackett http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackett_effect but was eventually rejected, even by Blackett himself.
Thanks for the explanation Leif. I never knew that the poles would switch at different times. I always assumed they would do it at the same time. Do we know what the longest it has stayed in this 4 pole configuration before?
Damn I love this site. Learn something new all the time.
Geoff Sharp says:
April 21, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Leif has stated in the past we are NOT heading into a grand minimum
To quote me correctly, you should have said that I did not predict cycle 24 to be a grand minimum [and I still don’t]. Statistically, low cycles come in bunches so the next couple of cycles may be low [but no guarantee]. L&P may presage that cycle 25 may be the start of a grand minimum, if by grand minimum we understand solar cycles with hard to see sunspots. The dynamo will carry on, the polar fields will reverse, etc even during a grand minimum.
TRM says:
April 21, 2012 at 9:46 pm
Do we know what the longest it has stayed in this 4 pole configuration before?
Well, our observation of the longest is our knowledge of it. It is hard to pin down the time very precisely because as the poles reverse their field weakens and becomes harder to observe, but a year and a half is typical [1957-1958, 1990-1991 http://obs.astro.ucla.edu/torsional.html ]
Dear God: please let me live a very long time so that I can watch all this lovely solar science unfold. And all the other lovely scientific conundrums unfold, for that matter. Sincerely, Jenn
Polar field reversal for the time being is on the hold, and it has been for about 15 months (top graph), decline was calculated more than 8 years ago (lower graph).
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm