From the National Astronomical Observatory Of Japan (via Dr. Benny Peiser of The GWPF)
World May Be Entering Period Of Global Cooling:
The sun may be entering a period of reduced activity that could result in lower temperatures on Earth, according to Japanese researchers.
Officials of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and the Riken research foundation said on April 19 that the activity of sunspots appeared to resemble a 70-year period in the 17th century in which London’s Thames froze over and cherry blossoms bloomed later than usual in Kyoto.
In that era, known as the Maunder Minimum, temperatures are estimated to have been about 2.5 degrees lower than in the second half of the 20th century. The Japanese study found that the trend of current sunspot activity is similar to records from that period.
The researchers also found signs of unusual magnetic changes in the sun. Normally, the sun’s magnetic field flips about once every 11 years. In 2001, the sun’s magnetic north pole, which was in the northern hemisphere, flipped to the south.
While scientists had predicted that the next flip would begin from May 2013, the solar observation satellite Hinode found that the north pole of the sun had started flipping about a year earlier than expected. There was no noticeable change in the south pole.
If that trend continues, the north pole could complete its flip in May 2012 but create a four-pole magnetic structure in the sun, with two new poles created in the vicinity of the equator of our closest star.
Source:The Asahi Shimbun, 20 April 2012
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While there’s some hype in the article, there is this graph from Dr. Leif Svalgaard that shows the current solar polar fields rather weak in comparison to the previous cycles, and not quite flipped yet:
http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Polar-Fields-1966-now.png
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And what happens when these changes in the magnetic poles occur? Yes I noticed the part about sun spots and resemblance to the Maunder minimum, 2.5 degrees lower temperature etc. but there seems that there is something missing from the explanations on why and how.
There are curious differences between the Japanese and English versions of the press release. The Japanese versions abounds with incorrect claims of priority and the usual ‘never seen before’ stuff. The fact is that it is quite normal that the polar fields reverse at different times. This was noted in the very first observations of a polar field reversal http://www.leif.org/EOS/Babcock1959.pdf
We have seen the North pole reversal coming for some time, e.g. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 5-9 December, 2011, Early Reversal of the Sun’s Polar Field – Is Solar Cycle 24 Already Peaking?, J T. Hoeksema, SH33A-2044.
The Japanese data is just confirmation of what has been known for a long time and does not call for any revisions of current theories. Currently, the two poles have the same polarity and there are two equatorial patches with the opposite polarity: http://www.leif.org/research/April2012-Solar-Magn-Field.png but this is nothing new. Science by press release is bad style.
Does a four-pole magnetic field indicate the beginning of a pole reversal? It does make you wonder if that is a precursor to a complete reversal. (At least from my layman mind, lol)
We live in interesting times indeed.
I have my doubts about this.
Lisa Tauxe at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography
She is a haphazard speaker but she brings a great deal of doubt to the climatological results of the field movements. I am unhappy with my doubts so that its why I keep reading up on this subject. It seems reasonable that the earth fields would impact the climate but the historical data suggest otherwise.
Nevertheless this is very interesting as is the video above.
See time stamp 23:00 onward… The discussion is focused on not just the “sense” of the field, but also the intensity of the field. It seems that the earth’s intensity is relatively low despite that there is multiple poles forming…. seems contradictory doesn’t it?
Good video and a complement to the Japanese paper.
Scientist, especially climate ones can be so touchy!
It would seem that the ‘team” do most of their climate science via press release, hell they even do peer reviews by it now!
Still interesting stuff, it begs the question, just how long can the sham of ignoring the sun’s influence on climate change continue?
This is interesting. I posted here months ago that it seemed the solar north was moving faster through SC24 than the south. The faster pace is also visible in SC23. Finally there is some discussion of the topic. Is there any way to test whether a magnetic quadrupole existed during the Maunder or Dalton minima? How long might it persist? Butterfly diagrams don’t seem to show anything odd. Are there any unusual sunspot structures expected, such as unusual bipolar sunspot orientations? Do any sunspot drawings dating from times near solar minima that perhaps show unusual sunspot structures? If they exist and were passed over as mere curiosities, perhaps they might be explained now.
The switch to quadri-pole magnetic is understandable, based on the “fluid” dynamo that exists within the sun (and likely the earth). There has been much research into the potential for a terrestrial quadri-pole during some periods of magnetic field flipping. No reason to believe it can’t happen on the sun, nor that such scenarios are particularly uncommon (in celestial timescales). What we don’t know is whether such a scenario has any effect on the Earth. The dearth of data from the Maunder period doesn’t allow us to make reliable predictions of the current and near future. Yes, we see fewer sunspots – but we have no data from past events that link this to a quadripole phase. The next 20 years will be very important in the evaluation of the data.
Oh! Leif already posted. Thanks.
Well the Arctic sure is cold. Ice extent above the running average in spite of NOAA’s attempt to change the rules so it would not graph out.
Hoser says:
April 21, 2012 at 11:00 am
Oh! Leif already posted. Thanks.
Spent most of yesterday with Japanese colleagues on this topic. Most agree that the claims are overblown and indeed shameful [big issue in Japan]. As one of them said: “The average people including me thought, in reading the article published in the most prestigious newspaper, that Shiota found the reversal of the polarity for the first time in the world.” and ” that is worse than I thought, because both [Japanese and English versions] are official and they try to lie [in] japanese version”. Sad story, actually.
Agree that science by press release is bad style, since the popular press is no place for objectivity. However, it would be appropriate for those who do have an impartial knowledge and understanding to nevertheless attempt conveying the facts without a drama.
This is what separates alarmists and armageddonists from scientists
Let me modify my last comment: Lisa Tauxe brings into doubt “cataclysmic” climate effects due to pole reversal. Since this pole reversal that we are currently observing is long overdue and coincidentally occurring at the 2012 modern myth time period, catastrophe is popularly associated with it. A cataclysm being denied does not suggest that small nuances may not affect long term weather behavior or localized climate behaviors. I think it might. Certainly so in telecommunications…. and cosmic rays… Otherwise I don’t understand the variables.
Hoser says:
April 21, 2012 at 10:58 am
Is there any way to test whether a magnetic quadrupole existed during the Maunder or Dalton minima?
We don’t need to go that far back. Here is a similar situation in 1980:
http://wso.stanford.edu/synoptic/WSO-R250.1691.gif
Here are the dipole, quadrupole, and even hexapole components for the past several solar cycles:
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/MultipoleR.gif
Yea, because the sun’s acitivity is going acording to plan. when in actual fact they’re clue less.
Leif Svalgaard says:
April 21, 2012 at 11:18 am
Here are the dipole, quadrupole, and even hexapole components for the past several solar cycles:
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/MultipoleR.gif
There is really no mystery here. The large-scale field is dominated by the lowest multipole orders. At times when the dipole [the lowest order] is weakening [polar field reversal], the next-lowest [the quadrupole] becomes dominant. Simple as that. To a certain extent one might call that a bit of mathematical ‘trick’ that nature is playing on us…
The Asahi group’s main business is the brewing of adult beverages.
http://www.asahigroup-holdings.com/en/company/index.html
They have good reason to keep an eye on matters solar, given their need for raw materials strongly affected by solar variation from year to year.
Sparks says:
April 21, 2012 at 11:29 am
Yea, because the sun’s acitivity is going acording to plan. when in actual fact they’re clue less.
What clues do you have as to how clueless other people are?
In my opinion there’s nothing wrong with such things being put out into public view. What we need to ask is why is the public unaware of such events, why are academics good at publishing in academic circles but so poor at communicating their findings to a wider audience.
Daniel Vogler says:
April 21, 2012 at 10:45 am
The has been some computer modelling (successfull, in contrast to climate modelling) on the Earths pole flips, with multiple poles occurring.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal
Auroras above each pole and associated effects are not mentioned in this particulal article om Wiki …
According to NASA we are long due for a flip here on Earth …
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-poleReversal.html
There is really only one way to tell for sure what the sun will do in the future, and that is, wait and see. Currently, people keep making predictions of what the sun will do or not do, and then it does something else. There are predictions that it will go about Dalton Minimum quiet starting next cycle, however, considering how many past predictions have been shown wong, I think I will just wait and see. Until we have positive evidence that we know why the sun does what it does when it does it, past and present, predictions are not much help. This is pretty much true both on predictiong whether the sun will go into a Grand Minimum, or whether it will not. That includes such things as whether the planets effect what the sun does, since we do not know what does cause major changes in the sun, we cannot either rule this out or say that it is yet true.
Still…at least we are now getting from unknown unknowns to known unknowns and even maybe a bit of known knowns around the edges. The problem may be getting some scientists to admit the unknown knowns are, in fact, unknown. it probably has to do with their grant money being based on their knowing something.
It does not seem obvious to me that intensity of the magnetic field is related to the number of poles. Imagine a dodecahedral pole structure. It would seem that at a distance that there is no field, yet close to the surface of the earth, there is abundant field strength.
For example, consider a tuning fork. In this case we have a dipole and at a distance it is difficult to hear it. But between the forks it is very loud indeed.
To me, intensity of the field, depends on where you measure it, radially from the earth’s surface and where on the surged in logitude and latitude. I believe, that the efects on climate may be more related to intensity than polarity.
Also,
It is difficult to get a historical record of terrestrial field vectors since they can only be recorded as minerals pass through their curie temperatures as they cool. That happens in volcanicly active locations. With out that record, it is impssible to correlate historical temperature data to pole reversal data or intensity data.
Leif Svalgaard says:
Sparks says:
April 21, 2012 at 11:29 am
Yea, because the sun’s acitivity is going acording to plan. when in actual fact they’re clue less.
What clues do you have as to how clueless other people are?
Well, I have one here http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/13dec_globaleruption/
“Global Eruption Rocks the Sun
It was so big, it may have shattered old ideas about solar activity
Much remains to be done. “We’re still sorting out cause and effect,” says Schrijver. “Was the event one big chain reaction, in which one eruption triggered another–bang, bang, bang–in sequence? Or did everything go off together as a consequence of some greater change in the sun’s global magnetic field?”
Further analysis may yet reveal the underlying trigger”
When someone can tell me what DID cause the, say, Maunder Minimum (not to metnion the above), well, then we can say whether we are about to enter one or not. Untill then, we have a few theories, which will only have any credibility IF the sun actually follows the script this time.
At keast now, while we may not know what the sun will do tomarrow, we at least have a start, by knowing a lot more about what it does today.
So if the temperature falls by 2.5 deg c aargh. But if it stays reasonable because of anthropogenic CO2 would that be good or bad? And if it falls by 2.5 deg what effect has anthropogenic CO2 had?
@ur momisugly Leif,
What is with the paired-up sunspots on the Earth facing solar disk, seems to be an unusual lay-out to my untrained eye ?