Spencer shows compelling evidence of UHI in CRUTem3 data

Above graph showing UHI by county population in California, from Goodridge 1996, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

McKitrick & Michaels Were Right: More Evidence of Spurious Warming in the IPCC Surface Temperature Dataset

Guest post by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

The supposed gold standard in surface temperature data is that produced by Univ. of East Anglia, the so-called CRUTem3 dataset. There has always been a lingering suspicion among skeptics that some portion of this IPCC official temperature record contains some level of residual spurious warming due to the urban heat island effect. Several published papers over the years have supported that suspicion.

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is familiar to most people: towns and cities are typically warmer than surrounding rural areas due to the replacement of natural vegetation with manmade structures. If that effect increases over time at thermometer sites, there will be a spurious warming component to regional or global temperature trends computed from the data.

Here I will show based upon unadjusted International Surface Hourly (ISH) data archived at NCDC that the warming trend over the Northern Hemisphere, where virtually all of the thermometer data exist, is a function of population density at the thermometer site.

Depending upon how low in population density one extends the results, the level of spurious warming in the CRUTem3 dataset ranges from 14% to 30% when 3 population density classes are considered, and even 60% with 5 population classes.

DATA & METHOD

Analysis of the raw station data is not for the faint of heart. For the period 1973 through 2011, there are hundreds of thousands of data files in the NCDC ISH archive, each file representing one station of data from one year. The data volume is many gigabytes.

From these files I computed daily average temperatures at each station which had records extending back at least to 1973, the year of a large increase in the number of global stations included in the ISH database. The daily average temperature was computed from the 4 standard synoptic times (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) which are the most commonly reported times from stations around the world.

At least 20 days of complete data were required for a monthly average temperature to be computed, and the 1973-2011 period of record had to be at least 80% complete for a station to be included in the analysis.

I then stratified the stations based upon the 2000 census population density at each station; the population dataset I used has a spatial resolution of 1 km.

I then accepted all 5×5 deg lat/lon grid boxes (the same ones that Phil Jones uses in constructing the CRUTem3 dataset) which had all of the following present: a CRUTem3 temperature, and at least 1 station from each of 3 population classes, with class boundaries at 0, 15, 500, and 30,000 persons per sq. km.

By requiring all three population classes to be present for grids to be used in the analysis, we get the best ‘apples-to-apples’ comparison between stations of different population densities. The downside is that there is less geographic coverage than that provided in the Jones dataset, since relatively few grids meet such a requirement.

But the intent here is not to get a best estimate of temperature trends for the 1973-2011 period; it is instead to get an estimate of the level of spurious warming in the CRUTem3 dataset. The resulting number of 5×5 deg grids with stations from all three population classes averaged around 100 per month during 1973 through 2011.

RESULTS

The results are shown in the following figure, which indicates that the lower the population density surrounding a temperature station, the lower the average linear warming trend for the 1973-2011 period. Note that the CRUTem3 trend is a little higher than simply averaging all of the accepted ISH stations together, but not as high as when only the highest population stations were used.

The CRUTem3 and lowest population density temperature anomaly time series which go into computing these trends are shown in the next plot, along with polynomial fits to the data:

Again, the above plot is not meant to necessarily be estimates for the entire Northern Hemispheric land area, but only those 5×5 deg grids where there are temperature reporting stations representing all three population classes.

The difference between these two temperature traces is shown next:

From this last plot, we see in recent years there appears to be a growing bias in the CRUTem3 temperatures versus the temperatures from the lowest population class.

The CRUTem3 temperature linear trend is about 15% warmer than the lowest population class temperature trend. But if we extrapolate the results in the first plot above to near-zero population density (0.1 persons per sq. km), we get a 30% overestimate of temperature trends from CRUTem3.

If I increase the number of population classes from 3 to 5, the CRUTem3 trend is overestimated by 60% at 0.1 persons per sq. km, but the number of grids which have stations representing all 5 population classes averages only 10 to 15 per month, instead of 100 per month. So, I suspect those results are less reliable.

I find the above results to be quite compelling evidence for what Anthony Watts, Pat Michaels, Ross McKitrick, et al., have been emphasizing for years: that poor thermometer siting has likely led to spurious warming trends, which has then inflated the official IPCC estimates of warming. These results are roughly consistent with the McKitrick and Michaels (2007) study which suggested as much as 50% of the reported surface warming since 1980 could be spurious.

I would love to write this work up and submit it for publication, but I am growing weary of the IPCC gatekeepers killing my papers; the more damaging any conclusions are to the IPCC narrative, the less likely they are to be published. That’s the world we live in.

UPDATE: I’ve appended the results for the U.S. only, which shows evidence that CRUTem3 has overstated U.S. warming trends during 1973-2011 by at least 50%.

I’ve computed results for just the United States, and these are a little more specific. The ISH stations were once again stratified by local population density. Temperature trends were computed for each station individually, and the upper and lower 5% trend ‘outliers’ in each of the 3 population classes were excluded from the analysis. For each population class, I also computed the ‘official’ CRUTem3 trends, and averaged those just like I averaged the ISH station data.

The results in the following plot show that for the 87 stations in the lowest population class, the average CRUTem3 temperature trend was 57% warmer than the trend computed from the ISH station data.

These are apples-to-apples comparisons…for each station trend included in the averaging for each population class, a corresponding, nearest-neighbor CRUTem3 trend was also included in the averaging for that population class.

How can one explain such results, other than to conclude that there is spurious warming in the CRUTem3 dataset? I already see in the comments, below, that there are a few attempts to divert attention from this central issue. I would like to hear an alternative explanation for such results.

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March 31, 2012 11:47 pm

I think you guys did not yet get it. It is not only buildings that cause UHI. It also when places like Las Vegas and Johannesburg that used to be desert or semi desert (no trees) get water from afar and are turned into green gardens with lots of trees and plants and gardens and golf courses. I saw the same thing in northern Namibia where a dead river started flowing again and where there now is a big increase in in greenery in the northern part of the Kalahari desert, see here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/the-earths-biosphere-is-booming-data-suggests-that-co2-is-the-cause-part-2/
Did you see the results I got for Las Vegas?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/30/spencer-shows-compelling-evidence-of-uhi-in-crutem3-data/#comment-940514

April 1, 2012 5:09 am

I am only a fan of the climate debate and have no qualifications to perform an informed debate but could someone tell me why, when Hugh Pepper said “They concluded that, since only 0.5% of the world is urbanized, even a 2 degree rise in urban temperature would contribute negligibly to the global average.” he was roundly criticized for having missed the point that there are more stations, more thermometers in urbanized areas than rural.
Why should the density of thermometers per square kilometer make any difference whatsoever? Is a square kilometer with a dozen thermometers somehow warmer than the same area with one?

April 1, 2012 5:42 am

ABE3 says:
Why should the density of thermometers per square kilometer make any difference whatsoever?
Henry says
The problem is that in the 99.5% where there is no people living, there are no thermometers. So all weather stations taken together are “skewed” to read the UHI effect, including some extra plantation of vegetation by man that is also contributing to the entrapment of heat, as explained earlier.

April 1, 2012 7:51 am

Henry says
The problem is that in the 99.5% where there is no people living, there are no thermometers. So all weather stations taken together are “skewed” to read the UHI effect, including some extra plantation of vegetation by man that is also contributing to the entrapment of heat, as explained earlier.
That is certainly an exaggeration. There are not “no thermometers”. There are less of them. However, you suggest that rural temperatures are being erroneously interpolated from urban thermometers. It is my understanding that limts are commonly used as to the distance across which temperature data are interpolated. That would seem to restrict the rural area to which urban readings would be applied.
I also wonder, if the global warming trend is simply the product of increasing urbanization:
1) Why did Peterson 2003 find so little UHI effect in general and Jones 2008 found no signal at all from increasing urbanization in China?
2) What is causing the increase in ocean heat content?
3) What is causing the dramatic air temperature increase in the Arctic?

April 1, 2012 8:18 am

Henry@Abe3
1) I honestly don’t know and I would not trust any work unless I had made sure about it myself. There is some indication that (some) results reproted by UK and USA could have been compromised.
http://letterdash.com/HenryP/what-hanky-panky-is-going-on-in-the-uk
2)see: http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
My latest tables clearly imply that the observed warming over past 4 decades was largely due to natural causes. Either the sun shone a bit brighter or there were less clouds. Or there was less ozone , which could have had a human influence but not anymore (?) , shielding us. There are various theories.
Looking at the differences between the results from the northern hemisphere(NH) and the southern hemisphere (SH), what we see is happening from my dataset is that more (solar) heat went into the SH oceans and is taken away by water currents and/or weather systems to the NH. That is why the NH is warming and that is why the SH does not warm.
3) A lot of the extra heat coming into the SH oceans condenses in the arctic, because of the cold there, releasing energy.
(when water condenses it releases heat)

Pamela Gray
April 1, 2012 8:23 am

Abraham3, in some data bases, Arctic air temperatures are actually not Arctic, they are land based. The grid over the Arctic is filled in with land temperatures. Other data bases use other methods. The various methods of filling in the Arctic grids make quite a difference in the final data shown to us, if you consider digits far to the right of the decimal point.
However, artifacts of method is not a significant contributor to real Arctic temperatures. Arctic Atmospheric Pressure Oscillation conditions and oceanic currents provide the lion’s share of temperature anomalies across the Arctic as it yearly cycles through the pattern of solar heating available to it. Anything else, be it method artifact, Sun anomalies, or CO2 increase- variables that only very slightly and only mathematically, not measurably- affects Arctic temperature is buried minutia.
Day to day Arctic temperature trends, thus statistical averages and year to year trends, are highly and significantly correlated to natural oceanic and atmospheric Arctic conditions. Period. In fact any trend in temperature anywhere in the world is also so correlated to the oceanic and atmospheric conditions there. And not a single AGW scientist or enthusiast can claim, show, or prove any different.

April 1, 2012 10:16 am

I still haven’t heard where the additional energy in the ocean heat index is coming from. The sun has not shone sufficiently brighter, there has not been sufficient change in cloud cover or change in ozone levels.
That the ocean dwarfs the atmosphere for energy content is a known. That makes it all the more fruitless to attempt to draw global lessons from a narrow examination of air temperatures.

April 1, 2012 10:44 am

Abe3 says:
The sun has not shone sufficiently brighter, there has not been sufficient change in cloud cover or change in ozone levels.
Henry says:
I’m not sure how you figured that out….. My (surface) data shows that more heat is going into the SH oceans. And, apparently, so does your data from the oceans/ BTW where did you get that info?
There is interaction between the magnetic forces of the sun and those of earth that may affect the movement of clouds. If for example, .due to a lack of winds in the Pacific, clouds are more inclined to move towards the poles (I checked: rain water contains iron) then you have a natural type of warming. On the equator your W/m2 is 684 whereas on average it is 342 W/m2 becoming less towards the poles.
Ozone is only coming back now but it is not yet at the same levels of 30 years ago. What many people do not realize is that a little less UV from the sun makes less ozone which reduces the shield that we have on top of us. So if the sun makes a little less UV we have less ozone which allows more sunlight in. Confusing , is it not? On the other hand, chlorine destroys ozone – and chlorine is coming from a lot of processes including the (now banned) CFC’s.

April 1, 2012 10:45 am

I was under the impression that 20th century heating in the Arctic was on the order of several degrees (3C above 1979-2000?). I do not think one needs to be concerned with figures well to the right of the decimal to find significance in Arctic heating. I was also under the impression that Arctic temperatures were currently higher than they had been in approximately 2,000 years.
As I said, I’m no climate scientist. As such, I do not understand what you intende to convey with your comment concerning Arctic surface temp’s correlation with nearby oceanic conditions.

April 1, 2012 10:58 am

Check the results for Bodo, in the arctic, in Norway,
in my tables.
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
It has increased by 0.036 degrees C per annum since 1976
= 1.3 degees C warmer compared to 35 years ago.

April 1, 2012 11:47 am

That’s still considerably higher than the global rate and I’m pretty sure its unaffected by urban heat islands.
And… still waiting for the source of energy raising ocean heat content.

April 1, 2012 11:57 am

The global rate is 0.014 per annum but it is next to nothing in the SH and in the antarctic.
I would not lose any sleep about it if I were you.
Don’t worry about driving your cars. It is OK. It is not the carbon dixide.
As I said, the warming is natural (increase in maxima, those that happen in the day)
it’s the sun/clouds/ozone, probably a combination:
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/more-carbon-dioxide-is-ok-ok

April 1, 2012 12:01 pm

And, I may regret asking this, but how would an interaction between the magnetic fields of the Earth and Sun affect cloud movements?

April 1, 2012 12:13 pm

Climate change in the Arctic and Effects of global warming
(Wikipedia)
There are several reasons to expect that climate changes, from whatever cause, may be enhanced in the Arctic, relative to the mid-latitudes and tropics. First, is the ice-albedo feedback, whereby an initial warming causes snow and ice to melt, exposing darker surfaces that absorb more sunlight, leading to more warming. Second, because colder air holds less water vapour than warmer air, in the Arctic, a greater fraction of any increase in radiation absorbed by the surface goes directly into warming the atmosphere, whereas in the tropics, a greater fraction goes into evaporation. Third, because the Arctic temperature structure inhibits vertical air motions, the depth of the atmospheric layer that has to warm in order to cause warming of near-surface air is much shallower in the Arctic than in the tropics. Fourth, a reduction in sea-ice extent will lead to more energy being transferred from the warm ocean to the atmosphere, enhancing the warming. Finally, changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns caused by a global temperature change may cause more heat to be transferred to the Arctic, enhancing Arctic warming (ACIA 2004).
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “warming of the climate system is unequivocal”, and the global-mean temperature has increased by 0.6 to 0.9 °C (1.1 to 1.6 °F) over the last century. This report also states that “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [greater than 90% chance] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” The IPCC also indicate that, over the last 100 years, the annually averaged temperature in the Arctic has increased by almost twice as much as the global mean temperature has. In 2009, NASA reported that 45 percent or more of the observed warming in the Arctic since 1976 was likely a result of changes in tiny airborne particles called aerosols.
There was a period from the late 1920s to the early 1950s during which the Arctic was almost as warm as it is today, though the spatial pattern of today’s warming differs from that of the earlier period. Sea ice extent has decreased by 5.25% to 8.25% since 1979, the beginning of the reliable satellite record, with a larger decrease in summer (12.5% to 24.5%) than in winter (IPCC 2007).
Climate models predict that the temperature increase in the Arctic over the next century will continue to be about twice the global average temperature increase. By the end of the 21st century, the annual average temperature in the Arctic is predicted to increase by 2.8 to 7.8 °C (5.0 to 14.0 °F), with more warming in winter (4.3 to 11.4 °C; 7.7 to 20.5 °F) than in summer (IPCC 2007). Decreases in sea-ice extent and thickness are expected to continue over the next century, with some models predicting the Arctic Ocean will be free of sea ice in late summer by the mid to late part of the century (IPCC 2007).
A study published in the journal Science in September 2009 determined that temperatures in the Arctic are higher presently than they have been at any time in the previous 2,000 years.[2] Samples from ice cores, tree rings and lake sediments from 23 sites were used by the team, led by Darrell Kaufman of Northern Arizona University, to provide snapshots of the changing climate.[3] Geologists were able to track the summer Arctic temperatures as far back as the time of the Romans by studying natural signals in the landscape.[4] The results highlighted that for around 1,900 years temperatures steadily dropped, caused by precession of earth’s orbit that caused the planet to be slightly farther away from the sun during summer in the Northern Hemisphere.[2][3] These orbital changes led to a cold period known as the little ice age during the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries.[2][3] However, during the last 100 years temperatures have been rising, despite the fact that the continued changes in earth’s orbit would have driven further cooling.[2][3][5] The largest rises have occurred since 1950, with four of the five warmest decades in the last 2,000 years occurring between 1950 and 2000.[2] The last decade was the warmest in the record.[6]
1.^ 2009 Ends Warmest Decade on Record. NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day, January 22, 2010.
2.^ a b c d e Kaufman, Bo M.; Schneider, David P.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Ammann, Caspar M.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Briffa, Keith R.; Miller, Gifford H.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. et al (2009). “Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling”. Science 325 (5945): 1236–1239. Bibcode 2009Sci…325.1236K. doi:10.1126/science.1173983. PMID 19729653.
3.^ a b c d “Arctic ‘warmest in 2000 years'”. BBC News. September 3, 2009. Retrieved September 5, 2009.
4.^ Derbyshire, David (2009-09-04). “Arctic ice reveals last decade was hottest in 2,000 years”. London: Daily Mail. Retrieved 2009-09-05.
5.^ Walsh, Bryan (2009-09-05). “Studies of the Arctic Suggest a Dire Situation”. Time. Retrieved 2009-09-05.
6.^ “Natural cooling trend reversed”. Financial Times. 2009-09-04. Retrieved 2009-09-04.

April 1, 2012 1:18 pm

Henry P says:
1) I honestly don’t know [Why Peterson 03 and Jones 08 did not find a UHI effect] and I would not trust any work unless I had made sure about it myself. There is some indication that (some) results reproted by UK and USA could have been compromised.
http://letterdash.com/HenryP/what-hanky-panky-is-going-on-in-the-uk
I checked your “hanky panky” link and I find that your evidence that “results reported by UK and USA may have been compromised” consists of lower temperature readings from Gibraltar than from Tangiers, Granada and Malacca. I invite you to consult a map that shows both land and sea.
2)see: http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
My latest tables clearly imply that the observed warming over past 4 decades was largely due to natural causes. Either the sun shone a bit brighter or there were less clouds. Or there was less ozone , which could have had a human influence but not anymore (?) , shielding us. There are various theories.
Looking at the differences between the results from the northern hemisphere(NH) and the southern hemisphere (SH), what we see is happening from my dataset is that more (solar) heat went into the SH oceans and is taken away by water currents and/or weather systems to the NH. That is why the NH is warming and that is why the SH does not warm.
There certainly are various theories. Might I point out that precisely as much water moves north across the equator as moves south across the equator. The temperature differences in the air is due to the differing amounts of landmass in the two hemispheres.
3) A lot of the extra heat coming into the SH oceans condenses in the arctic, because of the cold there, releasing energy. (when water condenses it releases heat)
The Arctic is not in the Southern Hemisphere. Antarctica has not experienced anything like the warming that has taken place in the Arctic. The simple reason for the difference is that one pole is land surrounded by sea while the other pole is sea surrounded by land.

richardscourtney
April 1, 2012 3:18 pm

Abraham3:
You make some good points but, with respect, they are not relevant to the subject of this thread.
It seems you are pressing them because you have misunderstood Spencer’s findings;
i.e. at April 1, 2012 at 7:51 am you say;
“I also wonder, if the global warming trend is simply the product of increasing urbanization:
1) Why did Peterson 2003 find so little UHI effect in general and Jones 2008 found no signal at all from increasing urbanization in China?
2) What is causing the increase in ocean heat content?
3) What is causing the dramatic air temperature increase in the Arctic?”
But Spencer did NOT find “the global warming trend is simply the product of increasing urbanization”.
He found
(a) that the UHI contributes to the calculated warming trend
and
(b) the degree of that contribution relates to population density in the calculated grid.
And the answers to your questions are interesting.
A to Q1.
Peterson and Jones used the data fabricated by Wang. So Peterson and Jones may (or may not) have conducted good analyses, but they analysed fraudulent data and, therefore, their results are meaningless.
A to Q2.
The ocean heat content increase is probably caused by the same mechanism (whatever that is) which caused the part of the warming trend which is not UHI.
A to Q3.
There is no reason to think warming of the polar regions is “dramatic”. In recent decades there has been negligible warming (probably slight cooling) of the Antarctic. Warming has happened in the Arctic but we have only been able to measure it in recent decades and there are good reasons to think the Arctic region should have higher temperature variability than elsewhere.
Hence, your questions are interesting but they are not relevant to consideration of Spencer’s findings.
Richard

wshofact
April 1, 2012 4:31 pm

People are asking “Why….Jones 2008 found no signal at all from increasing urbanization in China?
Have you read this paper co-authored by Jones;
History made as Jones et al 2008 paper admits huge urban warming in IPCC flagship CRUT3 gridded data over China
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=204
March 16th, 2009 by Warwick Hughes
Now Jones et al 2008 are saying in their Abstract, “Urban-related warming over China is shown to be about 0.1 degree per decade, hey that equates to a degree per century. Huge.
I think it is likely that Jones has had to be “dragged kicking and screaming” by his co-authors to go along with this conclusion.

April 1, 2012 7:35 pm

Parker’s wind studies did not rely on Wang’s data. And, to be fair, UEA gave the following response:
Statement from the University of East Anglia in response to ‘UK scientist hid climate data flaws’ (Guardian, 02.02.10)
Tue, 2 Feb 2010
The allegations made in today’s Guardian create a misleading picture and require important clarifications in three areas:
1. The FOI request was responded to in full
The FOI request from Douglas Keenan was responded to by the university in full in 2007. The data used in the 1990 paper were indeed sent to Mr Keenan, including both the locations of the stations and the station temperature data for China, Australia and western parts of the former Soviet Union. For China, the data covered the period 1954 to 1983. The data were also uploaded onto the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) website.
2. The accuracy of the data and results was confirmed in a later paper
Prof Jones embarked on a study in 2007 which was published in the Journal of Geophysical Research in 2008. In this later study, CRU researchers worked with a Chinese colleague (Dr Q. Li) from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) in Beijing. Dr Li had been assessing the consistency of 728 Chinese temperature series and his work was published in China in 2007. This improved CMA data was adjusted to account for changes in location of stations.
CRU requested this improved CMA data for the stations that had been used in the 1990 study, and they were incorporated into the 2008 paper.
Figure 6 from this study (see below [not shown]) shows the comparisons (as anomalies from the 1954-1983 period) between the averages of the 42 rural and 42 urban sites used in 1990 compared with averages from the same stations from the CMA network. The dashed lines are the averages for the rural and urban sites in eastern China from the 1990 paper. The solid lines are the averages from the same stations from the CMA network. It is clear from the graph that the trends of the CMA data for both the rural and urban networks agree almost exactly with the results from the 1990 paper.
The 2008 study undertook additional analyses using more extensive data and did conclude that there was a likely urbanization trend in China of 0.1 degrees Celsius per decade for the period 1951-2004. But allowing for this, there was still a large-scale climatic warming of 0.15 degrees C per decade over the period 1951-2004 and 0.47 degrees C per decade over the period 1981-2004. The paper concluded that much of the urbanization trend was likely due to the rapid economic development in China since the 1980s, after the period analysed in the 1990 paper.
3. The CRU findings were corroborated by other papers used by the IPCC
The 1990 paper was only one of a number of papers referred to in the 2007 IPCC Report examining possible urbanizations effects.
References
Jones, P.D., Groisman, P.Ya., Coughlan, M., Plummer, N., Wang, W-C. and Karl, T.R., 1990: Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land. Nature 347, 169-172.
Jones, P.D., Lister, D.H. and Li, Q., 2008: Urbanization effects in large-scale temperature records, with an emphasis on China. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D16122, doi:10.1029/2008/JD009916.
Li Q. and W. Li, 2007: Development of the gridded historic temperature dataset over China during recent half century, Acta Meteroloigca Sinica, 65, 293-299 (In Chinese).

April 2, 2012 1:13 am

Abe 3 says:
….Gibraltar than from Tangiers, Granada and Malacca. I invite you to consult a map that shows both land and sea.
Henry@Abe3
It is not Malacca. It is Malaga. I suggest you get a map from Spain and you will see that Gibraltar lies in the middle of Tangiers, Granada and Malaga.It is the difference in the rise of maxima at Gibraltar that is (very) strange is it not?

richardscourtney
April 2, 2012 2:24 am

Abraham3:
Your post at April 1, 2012 at 7:35 pm suggests you are attempting to disrupt this thread. It follows my post at April 1, 2012 at 3:18 pm that explained;
“You make some good points but, with respect, they are not relevant to the subject of this thread.
But you have responded with a long screed which purports to support your irrelevance.
The post by wshofact at April 1, 2012 at 4:31 pm proves the Jones paper you cited is wrong. Your subsequent long screed drops that and concentrates on trying to justify the claim by Parker that wind speeds indicate temperature better than thermometers.
This debate of irrelevance is inhibiting discussion of the subject of this thread. I suspect I am not alone in wanting you to stop it.
Richard

kadaka (KD Knoebel)
April 2, 2012 4:44 am

From Abraham3 on April 1, 2012 at 12:13 pm:

Climate change in the Arctic and Effects of global warming
(Wikipedia)

Wow, a mass copy and paste of a Wikipedia entry, about climate, including references.
1. Wikipedia’s bias about climate issues is well known around here, so it will be ignored.
2. You didn’t indicate what were the relevant bits that should be noted, nor indicated why you thought it was important to copy it here, so it will be ignored.
3. There is no “Climate change in the Arctic and Effects of global warming” entry currently in Wikipedia. The cited references are getting old. There is a current “Climate change in the Arctic” entry that looks completely different:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Arctic
Thus what you posted can be ignored.
4. As regular WUWT readers will know, the Arctic climate system is an area of active research where new discoveries are being made, new hypotheses formed and tested with new theories established. We know we don’t know everything yet, there are still things to learn. There have been interesting revelations since January 2010, the latest reference date, with some things disproven. Thus what you posted can be ignored as dated.
5. 4 of the 6 references are ordinary publications, there is only one peer-reviewed paper, Kaufman et al 2009.
Ref 3: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8236797.stm
refers to paper
Ref 4: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1210986/Arctic-ice-reveals-decade-hottest-2-000-years.html
refers to paper
Ref 5: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1920435,00.html
refers to paper
Ref 6: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d30695ec-98e9-11de-aa1b-00144feabdc0.html
refers to paper
So basically the entire copied entry has just two sources. Moreover that paper was being debunked practically the moment it was released:
http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Scientific/Arctic.htm (posted here on WUWT)
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/09/08/rewriting-arctic-history/
http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/03/kaufmann-and-upside-down-mann/
http://climateaudit.org/2009/09/07/kaufmans-stick-iceberg-lake-varves/
With original (later shown to be incorrect) press release for the paper:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/04/dmi-arctic-temperature-data-animation-doesnt-support-claims-of-recent-arctic-warming/
To provide the links, Ref 1: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=42392
And the paper, Ref 2: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/325/5945/1236.abstract
The full paper is paywalled, but a copy was found: http://denverclimatestudygroup.com/OTHER-MISC/ArcticCoolingScience200909041236.pdf
However at the abstract link, there is a note on the left toolbar about a correction to the paper, clicking reveals it’s from February 2010… And the correction is paywalled. The paper copy that can be downloaded predates the correction.
So all the references for all that you copied and pasted are:
1. NASA saying 2000-2009 was warmest decade of a record only going back to 1880, which is hardly controversial.
2. Debunked paper with unknown correction which can be inferred as an admission it had at least one flaw so egregious it had to be formally noted.
Thus what you posted can be freely ignored.

April 2, 2012 7:17 am

Abraham3 says:
(I) have no qualifications to perform an informed debate
Henry says:
I thought you just wanted to know where the extra heat in the oceans came from. I told you: my data, 1.5 million of them, suggest it is from more sunshine and/or less clouds and/or less ozone. A lot of the extra heat goes in the SH oceans. In the SH there is little evidence of increasing temperatures presumeably because there is much less landmass than on the NH and/or it does not get the warmer currents on the right places, e.g. Durban in SA actually became colder. \My data also suggest that the (extra) heat then moves northwards, by currents and weather systems, where it is used to melt some arctic ice and it is also trapped by increasing vegetation. Maybe there are more factors. If you go to Norway , to the arctic, you will be amazed about all the waterfalls, and condensation that goes on there. It is teeming with life. Everywhere. The water is in the air. That is why more warming is good for you. The Norwegians are actually happy with the arctic becoming more habitable because now they can get more oil and gas.
End of debate.
Now, if someone wants to comment on my observation about warming being caused by increasing vegetation?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/30/spencer-shows-compelling-evidence-of-uhi-in-crutem3-data/#comment-940514

rgbatduke
April 2, 2012 10:53 am

Another, obvious thing, something I haven’t seen mentioned here, though someone must have brought it up: That cities contains tens of thousands of windblocks called “buildings”. Wouldn’t blocking this lower wind slow down the thermostatic cooling effect that Willis E. describes so well, besides obviously giving the air more time to heat up?
This occurs in the country as well, only the blocks there are called “trees”. Of course trees respire and cool (but raise local humidity) where buildings don’t and warm (but are dry). The problem is once again not simple, linear, or (probably) linearizable. Not only are trees going to be different from farmland, farm land different from desert, hills different from plains, cities different from towns, lakes and rivers different from dry (but not desert) land in all types of use, oceans and coastlines different from everything, but different kinds of trees, or crops, or deserts, are likely to be different in different places.
In another post I mentioned the variability I can observe in recorded temperatures just moving the recording thermometer to different places on my 1/2 acre plot of property in a semirural setting. Front of the house different from the rear different from under the trees different from over the driveway different from anywhere near the roof different under the deciduous trees in front with relatively high vaulted canopy and the tightly packed cypresses in the rear.
I’m curious about whether or not this has been properly studied. I’m very tempted to buy one of the really good weather stations for the sole purpose of moving it around to different locations on my property every night (randomly selecting a new location by rolling a die, as it were) and recording the thermal trace at six different places as six different randomly scattered threads, to see how distinct the max-min-mean-variance sort of behavior is, averaged out seasonally by the random daily site selection.
If I were rich and bored, I’d probably do the same thing with sites in Duke forest, on nearby farmland, in the city, and so on, moving the same unit to all of these places so the traces were randomly selected from the same thermometers, not systematic but from different thermometers, all within a (say) three mile radius of my house. Within three miles I can’t quite reach the main part of downtown but I can hit malls with major high-rise offices, stream beds, Duke itself, farmland, and major rural forest with huge populations of deer and differing kinds of trees, at heights above sea level that vary by at least 50-100 meters (I live on the slope of a ridgeline that stretches from Chapel Hill to Hillsborough, with Durham proper the slightly flatter land off to the side). I’d bet that mean temperatures at the sites vary by at least 2K, maybe even 3K, from the hottest to the coldest (all measurements with the same thermometer).
Heck, one could even arrange to do it double blind, I think.
rgb

rgbatduke
April 2, 2012 11:30 am

In case the point of my previous article wasn’t clear — it is stupid to try to infer the UHI effect from antique data, when one can just bloody well measure it directly and on purpose with a suitably designed experiment now, and to very high precision indeed. Anthony already took the first steps towards this when he documented the poor siting of many weather stations — the obvious and directly measurable conclusion is that those poorly sited stations almost invariably show more warming although all one has to do is look at patterns of snow-melt after a fall to realize that it is possible (but less likely) to site a station that stays significantly colder than “true ambient temperature” (whatever that means) as well.
This isn’t to criticize Roy’s efforts to do so (any more than I would criticize Jones et all, or any of the many others that have tried to do so) — it is just that this is a great big why do so when it is so easy to design an actual experiment to directly measure it and in the process contruct a fine-grained picture of spatial thermal variation as multivariate function that might actually permit inferences to made from the historical data the other way — if nothing else accurately characterizing the noise and bias associated with our ignorance of siting and the measurement process used for ancient historical thermometry. If there are degrees K of noise to be had in a 1/2 acre plot, and more degrees K of systematic noise to be had in a three mile circle, one has to deconvolve a complicated multivariate systematic bias function in order to statistically “correct” otherwise anonymous temperature readings (and those readings will end up with large error bars).
Why infer when you can measure? The same is true for the GHE — why infer it, model it, assume it, when the open desert provides one with ample opportunity to directly measure it in air with minimal confounding moisture?
rgb

April 2, 2012 12:26 pm

Henry@rgb
when Roy and myself and others are estimating global warming at ca. 0.014 degrees C per annum over the paswt 4 decades we do so because we looked at thousands of data and we hope that the average will give us a good estimate of what is going on. At the same time I realize that accuracy may have improved in the last 40 odd years, both in measurement as well as the exclusion of human influence. Probably more so twoards the higher measurement. Your arguments abouyt location also hold true. I have noticed that will actually find cooling where there they cut trees:
http://letterdash.com/HenryP/de-forestation-causes-cooling
You will find warming where there has been a lot of planting:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/30/spencer-shows-compelling-evidence-of-uhi-in-crutem3-data/#comment-940514
These are things that you could also easily pick up in your own backyards, as you suggest. So why is nobody doing it?
It is probably because they don’t want to admit that more carbon dioxide is OK? Even yours and mine pension money is invested now in this “green energy” . Just follow the money.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/the-earths-biosphere-is-booming-data-suggests-that-co2-is-the-cause-part-2/