More of the “extreme events” meme…
From the AGU weekly highlights
Regional models expect drier, stormier western United States
Key Points
- Statistically significant increases in western US future extreme winter precipitation
- Eight dynamically downscaled GCM simulations show generalized agreement
- Spatial pattern of changes in mean precip. is different than that of extremes
As American southwestern states struggle against ongoing drought, and the Northwest braces for a projected shift from a snow- to a rain-dominated hydrological system, climate researchers strive to provide precipitation projections that are fine grained enough to be of value to municipal water managers. Estimates derived from large general circulation models show that in a warming world, water availability in the western United States will be increasingly dictated by extreme events.
However, such large models tend to lack necessary detail for the small-scale interactions and topographic influences that dominate daily changes in local precipitation. To convert the broad predictions of global models into practical predictions, Dominguez et al. used an ensemble of regional models, set to fit within the projections of general circulation models, to estimate future winter average and extreme precipitation for the western United States.
The authors find that for the years 2038–2070, winter average precipitation in the southwestern states would be 7.5 percent below 1979–1999 levels. They also find, for the entire areal-averaged western United States, a 12.6 percent increase in the magnitude of 20-year-return-period winter storms and a 14.4 percent increase for 50-year winter storms. In some regions, like southern California and northwestern Arizona, this increase in strength of 50-year storms was pushed as high as 50 percent. Though the temporal and spatial granularity of the regional climate models is much improved over that of general circulation models, workable and useful measurements for hydrological engineering and water management design will need ever-better estimates of future rainfall patterns.
Source:
Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL0507624, 2012
Title:
“Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models ”
Authors:
- F. Dominguez, E. Rivera, and C. L. Castro
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA;
- D. P. Lettenmaier
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Abstract:
We find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western United States, as simulated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by IPCC AR4 global climate models (GCMs). All eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter precipitation with the multi-model mean projecting an area-averaged 12.6% increase in 20-year return period and 14.4% increase in 50-year return period daily precipitation. In contrast with extreme precipitation, the multi-model ensemble shows a decrease in mean winter precipitation of approximately 7.5% in the southwestern US, while the interior west shows less statistically robust increases.
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DesertYote says:
March 30, 2012 at 9:49 am
Don’t blame the Army Corp of Engineers. Blame the Democrat who diverted funds to subsidize poverty that should have gone to doing what the Army Corp of Engineers had been saying needed to be done for FORTY years!
=========
GOT That Right!!!
New Orleans is a perfect example of misplaced trust and the need for trusted Engineers.
“As American southwestern states struggle against ongoing drought, and the Northwest braces for a projected shift from a snow- to a rain-dominated hydrological system, climate researchers strive to provide precipitation projections that are fine grained enough to be of value to municipal water managers. ”
What BS. First, since there is no “shift from snow to rain” occurring & no one is “bracing” for any projected shift.
And how the heck does one “brace” for a projection anyway? What does that look like? Are water managers having bracing meetings? Who knows.
Of course their is no shift or bracing underway at all.
The real tell here is “climate researchers strive to provide projections of value”. That underscores that there is no current value in anything they are projecting.
Municipal water managers are not using their projections for anything.
So should they stop wasting money on endless and useless projections? Why no of course. No no no. The Climateers call for MORE uselessness.
“Though the temporal and spatial granularity of the regional climate models is much improved over that of general circulation models, workable and useful measurements for hydrological engineering and water management design will need ever-better estimates of future rainfall patterns.”
What a mouth full. This reminds me of Lubchenco’s asinine claim a few years ago that climate models were robust enough to predict wind patterns 100 years from now and that such predictions would help officials site wind farms. That is too stupid as no one in their right mind would site a wind farm according to future wind.
These acts of concocting usefulness from the useless to justify the more uselessness are no more than self interested money grubbing ploys to prop up an elitist’s charade of
purpose and merit.
Well, didn’t the Anasazi abandon the American SW because of, well, this exact type of a climate they talk about here? That was right around 1000 to 1125 CE wasn’t it? Uh-Oh! I steeped in it now, that would be during the Medieval Warming Period the IPCC still feels was localized. I’m in trouble now! That means this type of warming happens in cycles. As the consensus points out, that didn’t happen so….well, actually, I don’t know what this means anymore.
DesertYote says:
March 30, 2012 at 9:49 am
Blame the Democrat who diverted funds to subsidize poverty that should have gone to doing what the Army Corp of Engineers had been saying needed to be done for FORTY years!
In NOLA, the Ninth Ward boss got a statue dedicated to hisself for “plussing-up” social programs using funds earmarked for levee maintenance.
Then Came Katrina and the levee collapsed.
Interesting coincidence.
theduke says:
March 30, 2012 at 7:16 am
“The modellers are like kids in the arcade with their video games. They sit there and play with the controls that manipulate images on a screen. ”
I’m with theduke on this. Playstation game with worthless forecast put 25-60 years in the future, comfortable away. They know their model do not “forecast” any such variation as the history have seen them, the MWP, the roman warming, the LIA, as they do not know what have caused these, playing with aberrations like farting megafauna to cause the holocene warming, humans to kill them and cause the Younger Ddryas, Gengis Khan and the conquistadores to cause LIA.
This is such a pseudo science, we need to organise a prize, like an “scam-oscar” for the best CAGW scam work.
No, I mean really.
I agree John. These greenies spend way too much time on concrete. I’d bet good money that they go days and even weeks without stepping on grass. They should have all been sent to Wallowa County to help out during all-night calving sessions. Then the during the day they could have worked on the irrigation ditches that need yearly cleaning. And if they are worth a damn, they will have the energy to go fishing at the end of the day, eat a bit and catch some shut eye before the next round of calving. Or they could get on a horse and provide round the clock watchful eyes to keep the wolves away.
Maybe then they would not have the energy to continue to screw things up.
The Anazazi left the Southwest to get away from idiot prognosticators who claim to resolve future rainfall amounts to half a per cent. Does anybody else remember eighth grade science?
Tim Clark says:
March 30, 2012 at 9:36 am
So build some more dams……..even the government could complete some by 2038.
Optimist. They wouldn’t even have the Environmental Impact Statements completed by then…
Take a look at this list of dams in California.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dams_and_reservoirs_in_California
Then sort by date. ONE since 2000. Four in the 1990s. Four in the 80s.
Then check out the population growth.
If your population skyrockets in a relatively dry climate, you need to build more dams!
Dr. Bob says:
March 30, 2012 at 6:13 am
Having worked with AQMD and ARB, I see this as an opportunity to depopulate California and the Southwest. This is what the regulators want anyway. AQMD wants to totally eliminate NOx emissions and is willing to shut down all businesses in the SoCal area to do just that. With no commerce, there are no jobs, and with no jobs, there is no need for people, and with no people, there is no need for water and irrigation. That will reduce the burden on the Colorado Aqueduct, and more water will flow south. Back to Nature. When do we start? OOOOps, forgot about tinsel town. They will need their own supply of water and weather modification programs to make sure they live in luxury while the region is transformed into the Green Paradise that they always wanted it to be.
——-
Your scenario will only work on Southern Cal. There is no AQMD in Nevada, Utah and Arizona and those states will be happy to take the refugees and the water. Mexico still won’t get much. Nevada has even run ads in California to entice business away. They want the river water for developing southern Nevada, Las Vegas in particular. Arizona will slurp up anything left over.
California also has another problem, and that is they are more than broke, and there is no one to bail them out. They may already be way past sustainability, and driving their tax base away isn’t going to help. Carbon regulation is going to accelerate that, all for a problem that likely doesn’t exist. California hasn’t yet figured out that old adage about being careful what you wish for…
But we already know regional models have zero predictive power even in hind cast. Good thing this is online becuase it sure would be a waste of paper.
Drier stormier – perfect description of the 1970s and 1980s (other than the 82 – 83 El Nino).
Description of the time since is wet and cold (with the exception of the SE extremities of “The West” namely NM and TX)
That would be the Global Weirding
Meanwhile in the REAL world cold and snow are dramaticallyincreasing. I.E. right now records continue to be set…numerous record March snowfall records and total season snowfall records are being broken across North American ski areas.
For instance Mt Rainier has received 10ft of snow over the last 3 days, and 8ft more are forecast for the next 3 days.
Anyone who lives where it snows will tell you it has been getting colder and snowier…much snowier!
“Eight dynamically downscaled GCM simulations show generalized agreement”
Ummmm, eight times zero is still zero! Data, please…
peterhodges says:
March 30, 2012 at 11:34 am
Meanwhile in the REAL world cold and snow are dramaticallyincreasing. I.E. right now records continue to be set…numerous record March snowfall records and total season snowfall records are being broken across North American ski areas.
Not those in the Northeast, except for maybe record lows.
Phil. says:
March 30, 2012 at 12:03 pm
peterhodges says:
March 30, 2012 at 11:34 am
Meanwhile in the REAL world cold and snow are dramaticallyincreasing. I.E. right now records continue to be set…numerous record March snowfall records and total season snowfall records are being broken across North American ski areas.
“Not those in the Northeast, except for maybe record lows.”
Good point! That was so last year!
Maybe one of them was using this model…
http://www.scholastic.com/kids/weather/sim/game.htm
Try it yourself… then write a paper.
This is one of the three papers I wrote about two weeks ago as so bad as to have been published by The Onion. The models simply cannot replicate todays precipitation or the current 50 year recurrence–and yet the authors went forward and somehow the peer reviewers looked the other way.
Keyboard “scientists” making predictions without ever getting their feet wet in real world research. I should trust that why?
Dear Doctors
Give us a five year forecast, I dare you.
Partly to mostly with a chance of…?
The “struggle against ongoing drought” in Texas…
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
445 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012
…NEW MONTHLY RAINFALL RECORD ESTABLISHED AT COLLEGE STATION…
ANOTHER 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN RECORDED SO FAR TODAY (AS OF 4
PM) AT EASTERWOOD FIELD IN COLLEGE STATION (CLL). THIS BRINGS THE
MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTAL TO 8.66 INCHES WHICH IS A NEW MARCH RECORD
FOR CLL. THE PREVIOUS WETTEST MARCH OCCURRED IN 1926 WITH 8.03
INCHES.
THE YEARLY RAINFALL TOTAL IS NOW 20.74 INCHES WHICH IS THE SECOND
WETTEST START TO A YEAR IN RECORDED HISTORY…TRAILING ONLY 1991
(20.79 INCHES).
AT COLLEGE STATION…2012 IS ALREADY WETTER THAN ALL OF 2011. LAST
YEAR…CLL ONLY RECEIVED 19.01 INCHES OF RAIN.
David Corcoran said on March 30, 2012 at 7:15 am:
Simplify everything. Buy a house boat, park it on your land on its trailer, hook up all utilities with flexible connections with disconnects, live on it. Then you’re covered for normal floods, moderate tsunamis, and the sometimes urgent need for SoCal residents to flee wildfires when you simply hook it up to your pick-up truck and take it with you. Your documents, possessions, and appliances, already packed up in transportable form.
The fun part will be finding a long-enough telephone pole and planting it deep. That’s to mark your property and you’ll use it as a mooring when Hansen’s 30-meter sea level rise happens. Will also be handy in the event of massive surging mega-waves after ocean impacts of asteroids and multiple simultaneous Antarctic ice shelf collapses. Gotta be prepared, eh?
models that can…walk the catwalk
models that can’t forecast weather
models that can’t forcast weather…forecast climate