Quote of the Week:
“I am always happy to be in the minority. Concerning the climate models, I know enough of the details to be sure that they are unreliable. They are full of fudge factors that are fitted to the existing climate, so the models more or less agree with the observed data. But there is no reason to believe that the same fudge factors would give the right behavior in a world with different chemistry, for example in a world with increased CO2 in the atmosphere.” Freeman Dyson [H/t Elliot Cramer.]
###################################################
Number of the Week: 23 Agencies, 130 sub-agencies, nearly 700 programs
###################################################
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Climate Catastrophe: We are witnessing a number of trends as the globe refuses to obey global warming models. One, since there is no global warming trend, the term trend has been dropped in favor of the term level. The level of warming over the past decade has been greater than it has been since the start of the industrial revolution (about 1850) – essentially meaningless because the earth has been recovering of the Little Ice Age. Since carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) continue to increase, critical reading of this statement calls into question the accuracy of the claims that humans are causing unprecedented and dangerous global warming.
Another definite trend in the general literature is broadening the terminology to make it more alarming. Global warming has morphed into climate change, which is not scientifically significant because climate change is normal and natural. Now, it has morphed again into climate catastrophe or catastrophic climate change. With the use of this scientifically unsupported dire claim, comes an intensification of the political solution.
First, the political solution was voluntary cap-and-trade by Western nations. When this did not work, the political solution was cap-and-trade and taxes on carbon dioxide emissions by some nations, including those in the European Union and Australia. But that is not working. Now the solution is becoming compulsory, authoritarian, international governance, no doubt, envisioned to be run by philosopher-kings in the Plato tradition. Unfortunately, history demonstrates such philosopher kings tend to become tyrants. The thinking can be summarized as: “If tyranny is necessary to save humanity, so be it – as long as I am one of the philosopher-kings or at least be a member of the court.”
Not to be outdone by the article for global governance by 32 social scientists in Science magazine referenced in last week’s TWTW, Scientific American issued a similar article this week. One is forced to wonder if those who are issuing demands for global governance recognize that in the US, at least, the power of the central government is limited by the Constitution and the individual rights and liberties it protects, outlined, in part, by the Bill of Rights. Please see articles under “Expanding the Orthodoxy.”
******************
Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: One of the claims of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR-4) of the UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and (LIA) were regional events confined largely to Western Europe. The first two reports contained these events. The third report dropped these events in favor of Mr. Mann’s discredited “hockey-stick.” Without explanation, AR-4 dropped the hockey-stick in favor of the above claims.
A new study shows that both the MWP and the LIA appeared in the Antarctic Peninsula. It is important to note that the study applies to the Peninsula alone, which is subject to changes in ocean currents. The study does not apply to the continent. The current study adds to a large body of work showing that the MWP and the LIA were global, not local, natural phenomena. Of course, this work undermines the claim by the IPCC that carbon dioxide is the principal driver of climate change. Please the reports of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/reports.html and the links under “Changing Climate.”
******************
Infant Industries: In the early days of the US independence from Great Britain, US manufacturers argued that since they were small, they needed tariffs on goods from foreign countries to protect them from the efficient, large manufacturers in Great Britain and elsewhere. Essentially, the claim is that small, immature industries, infant industries, need special nurturing from government. It is been used world-wide for centuries and often results in inefficiency in the protected industries with higher consumer prices to the general public.
The infant industry argument is being used to justify subsidies for solar and wind, as well as other forms of alternative energy production. The argument is that since solar or wind is a new industry, it needs special nurturing from government. Electrical generation from wind has existed since the 1880s and at one time was popular in isolated farms and ranches in the west until the farmers and ranchers received reliable power from the grid, thanks to rural electrification programs. In a two part series, Robert Bradley, Jr. discusses the history of solar energy with quotations of solar energy dating back to the 1700s and photovoltaic back to the 1950s. Please see links under “Subsidies and Mandates Forever.”
******************
Changing Temperatures: The temperature record of the Hadley Center – Climatic Research Unit (Had-CRUT) is undergoing changes. For the land surface temperatures, it appears that the historic temperatures are being adjusted downward, reflecting a cooler history than the contemporary evidence shows. Also there will be greater coverage of the Arctic regions at the expense of the temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The change creates higher temperatures for 2010, making it the “hottest year on record.”
Given that satellite measurements show that most of the warming since 1979 has occurred in the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere, those skeptical about bureaucracies and the science they produce may find these changes typically bureaucratic, rather than scientific.
But these changes may produce a backlash. If the new studies from Norway and Russia reported in last week’s TWTW, are correct; than a large part of the 20th century Arctic warming was created by an active sun. If the sun continues to be dormant, then the recorded Arctic warming will become an Arctic cooling. The result will be a pronounced cooling in the revised, new global temperature measurements, giving the producers of Had-CRUT difficulty in future explanations. Please see links under “Measurement Issues.”
******************
WMO Annual Report: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is one of the two parent organizations of the IPCC. The other is the United Nation’s Environmental Programe (UNEP). On Friday, WMO released its annual report on the state of the climate. It speaks of levels of surface temperature since 1850, rather than the 21st century trend. Of course, global coverage in 1850 was far from adequate. In spite of recent manipulations of the data record, there has been no temperature trend in over a decade. The report speaks of declining sea ice in the Arctic, but failed to mention the decline reached a low point in 2007, and since then sea ice has been increasing.
The report contains a litany of weather events such as floods in parts of the world and droughts in other parts, as if climate is uniform for every region through time. It also contains errors on tropical cyclones (hurricanes) claiming that the decade had the highest level of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin, which is not supported by research by William Grey and others. The report emphasizes Katrina, the most costly to hit the US, claiming it was a category 5, which it was when it was in the Gulf of Mexico. When it made land fall it was a category 3 storm.
Most noticeably, the report emphasized measurements of sea ice by satellites, but failed to discuss measurements of temperatures by satellites. These are the most comprehensive, rigorous measurements ever taken, are independently verified by balloon data, and are independently compiled by two groups, one of which publishes its data monthly. It appears that for some reports, the WMO is stuck in the technology of the 1850s.
******************
Amplification: Science of Personal Destruction: One of the disturbing trends in scientific discussions and literature in recent years is the willingness by some to resort to arguments of personal destruction (ad hominem) to refute the logical, scientific arguments questioning the premise of the writer. An example is calling a skeptic is a “shill” for industry. A retort would be calling an alarmist a “shill” for global governance – authoritarianism. Unless the claim can be substantiated it does not belong in scientific discourse.
The two principal founders of SEPP, Fred Singer and Fredrick Seitz, have been the subject of a particularly effective ad hominem attack in Merchants of Doubt by Oreskes and Conway. The evidence to substantiate outrageous claims made in the book does not exist in the text but is implied to exist in the extensive footnotes, yet it does not.
In preparing TWTW, articles containing significant, unsubstantiated personal attacks are avoided. However, occasionally, TWTW may reference articles that contain distasteful adjectives of a personal nature. These articles may be included for their general interest, not for their personal commentary. Please do not assume that TWTW embraces the comments of the author of an article referenced in TWTW.
******************
Number of the Week: 23 Agencies, 130 sub-agencies, nearly 700 programs. According to a February 2012 report to Congress by the General Accountably Office, that is the number of government organizations involved in renewable energy initiatives in Fiscal Year 2010. Yet, the 23 Agencies, 130 sub-agencies, and 700 programs have failed to produce as significant an impact on US energy as the private efforts of combining deep underground hydraulic fracturing of dense shale with directional, horizontal drilling to extract oil and natural gas.
Do doubt, the leaders of the 23 agencies, 130 sub-agencies, and 700 programs will continue to defend these programs even when faced with the hard data that their programs are economic failures. Please see link under “Subsidies and Mandates Forever.”
###################################################
ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. Supremes 9, EPA 0
The Justices rebuke the bureaucracy’s water torture.
Editorial, WSJ, Mar 22, 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204257504577152830079320346.html?mod=ITP_opinion_2
2. Cheap Gasoline and Human Rights
By Sam Kazman, Letter, WSJ, Mar 19, 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304459804577285420604906582.html?mod=ITP_opinion_1
3. Gas Set to Test Capacity Limits
By Dan Strumpf, WSJ, Mar 22, 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303812904577295873283143892.html
[SEPP Comment: The unexpected natural gas problem – where to store it?]
4. Climate Wars Continue With More Heat Than Light
By Michael Mann, Letter, WSJ, Mar 21, 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304724404577291600175012584.html?mod=ITP_opinion_1
[SEPP Comment: Some may disagree with Mr. Mann’s interpretation of scientific facts.]
###################################################
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Climategate Continued
Vignettes before MM2003
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Mar 19, 2012
http://climateaudit.org/2012/03/19/vignettes-before-mm2003/
It’s interesting to see that Mann, who at that time knew nothing about me, was nonetheless quick to portray me as a “shill” and had recommended strategies for rejecting emails.
[SEPP Comment: Apparently, to Mr Mann anyone with the audacity to question his work is a shill for industry.]
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Suzuki vs. the Senate — who’s silencing whom?
‘Silence and demonize’ could be the Suzuki foundation’s motto
By Peter Foster, Financial Post, Mar 23, 2012 [H/t Tom Harris]
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/03/22/peter-foster-suzuki-vs-the-senate-whos-silencing-whom/
Challenging the Orthodoxy
A Newfound Cog in the Ocean Conveyor
Scientists confirm existence of a previously unknown current
By Lonny Pippsett, Oceanus, Mar 23, 2012
http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/viewArticle.do?id=132749§ionid=1021
The newly confirmed ocean current is called the North Icelandic Jet. It feeds cold, dense water into the Deep Western Boundary Current, helping to drive the lower limb of the Ocean Conveyor, the global ocean circulation system that regulates Earth’s climate. [Boldface added.]
[SEPP Comment: Changes in the ocean conveyor are not found in the IPCC reports as natural features that change or regulate the Earth’s climate.]
Sensationalist And Distorted Climate Stories Increase As Climate Science Failures Exposed
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Mar 20, 2012
New Paper: Many Tree-Ring Analyses Highly Biased, Unreliable
By Staff Writer, GWPF, Mar 20, 2012
http://thegwpf.org/science-news/5263-new-paper-many-tree-ring-analyses-highly-biased-unreliable.html
Defending the Orthodoxy
WMO Annual Statement confirms 2011 as 11 warmest on record
Climate change accelerated in 2001-2010, according to preliminary analysis
By Staff Writers, Press Release No 943, WMO, Mar 23, 2012 [H/t Bishop Hill]
http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_943_en.html
Why spring is blooming marvelous (and climate change makes it earlier)
By Staff Writers, Norwich, UK (SPX), Mar 23, 2012
[SEPP Comment: The assumption is that spring did not bloom early in the Medieval Ages. Also that CO2 fertilization has nothing to do with it.]
Climate law survives red tape cull
Britain’s laws on climate change that push up energy bills for millions of households have been spared, despite George Osborne’s plea for a reduction in expensive green regulations.
By Rowena Mason, Telegraph, UK, Mar 20, 2012
Scientists who trade in doubt
By Mike Steketee, The Australian, Mar 17, 2012
[SEPP Comment: See discussion on the science of personal destruction.]
British MP: Majority of my colleagues don’t understand climate science
The UK’s cross party consensus on climate change cannot be taken for granted according to a member of Parliament’s Energy and Climate Change Select Committee.
By Ed King, RTCC, Mar 23, 2012 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.rtcc.org/policy/british-mp-majority-of-my-colleagues-dont-understand-climate-science/
[SEPP Comment: Anyone who disagrees with me doesn’t understand the science.]
Climate Change Skepticism Stems from Recession
By Staff Writers, Storrs Mansfield CT (SPX), Mar 19, 2012
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Climate_Change_Skepticism_Stems_from_Recession_999.html
[SEPP Comment: The failure of the globe to obey global climate models is not an issue?]
Do you believe in climate change?
That’s not a question you should be asking – it’s a matter of empirical evidence, not belief
• Everything you need to know about climate change
By Vicky Pope, Guardian, Mar 23, 2012
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/mar/23/climate-change-believe-in-it
[SEPP Comment: Hardly everything we need to know. No discussion of the glaring deficiencies of the climate models. See link immediately below.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Pinning down the debate
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Mar 23, 2012
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2012/3/23/pinning-down-the-debate.html
[SEPP Comment: The claim of overwhelming evidence that man is influencing climate is not particularly meaningful, nor the issue. The issue is the extent to which carbon dioxide emissions are causing global warming. See link to article immediately above.]
Lower Climate Sensitivity Estimates: New Good News
By Chip Knappenberger, Master Resource, Mar 19, 2012
http://www.masterresource.org/2012/03/lower-climate-sensitivity-estimates/#more-19240
[SEPP Comment: A somewhat technical presentation that the IPCC would be remiss and misleading, if it uses in its upcoming report the probability distributions for its models that it used in AR4.]
1970’s Global Cooling – What The Scientists Said
By Paul Homewood, NLPKT, Mar 13, 2012 [H/t ICECAP]
[SEPP Comment: A look at climate change in the early and mid 20th century.]
Accelerating global warming
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Mar 23, 2012
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2012/3/23/accelerating-global-warming.html
[SEPP Comment: Links to an excellent example how one can create the trend desired on a sine curve by choosing the right end points.]
Global Warming As Cargo Cult Science
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Mar 17, 2012
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/03/global-warming-as-cargo-cult-science/
Tropical Forests Rejoice!
By Patrick Michaels, World Climate Report, Mar 22, 2012
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2012/03/22/tropical-forests-rejoice/#more-532
[SEPP Comment: Thanks to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, the health of the studied tropical forests is improving.]
Climate Science From the Onion?
By Patrick Michaels, WUWT, Mar 21, 2012
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/21/climate-science-from-the-onion/
[SEPP Comment: Some climate science stories appear to be right out of the humor magazine.]
Detecting evidence for CO2 fertilization from tree ring studies: The potential role of sampling biases
By Brienen, et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles Mar 17, 2012
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2011GB004143.shtml
Questioning European Green
Why we must repeal the Climate Change Act
By Roger Helmer, His Blog, Mar 20, 2012
http://rogerhelmermep.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/why-we-must-repeal-the-climate-change-act/
[SEPP Comment: A waste to the UK economy.]
The De-industrialisation of Europe
By Roger Helmer, His Blog, Mar 22, 2012 [H/t Anne Debeil]
http://rogerhelmermep.wordpress.com/2012/03/22/the-de-industrialisation-of-europe-2/
DECC and “Tackling Climate Change”
By Clive Best, His Blog, Mar 20, 2012 [H/t GWPF]
http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=3459
Mixed messages on climate and energy policy
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Mar 21, 2012
[SEPP Comment: One idea of geo-engineering to stop Arctic warming. Also, discusses the inconsistency between British policy goals and practicality.]
Is carbon cutting a waste of time? Figures show Britain’s ‘footprint’ has increased by 20 per cent despite green taxes
By Jason Groves, Mail, UK, Mar 19, 2012 [H/t GWPF]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Earth Hour: A Dissent
By Ross McKitrick, His Blog, Mar 23, 2012
http://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/earthhour.pdf
[SEPP Comment: McKitrick’s view of the movement to stop electricity use.]
Ontario FIT is a miracle–high electricity prices create jobs!
Liberal government maintains — and may expand–program that will help double province’s electricity prices
By Terence Corcoran, Financial Post, Mar 22, 2012
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/03/22/terence-corcoran-fit-fix-more-like-a-refuel/
[SEPP Comment: We are in competition with other governments to capture a money losing industry. Let’s spend more money!]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Effective World Government Will Be Needed to Stave Off Climate Catastrophe
By Gary Stix, Scientific American, Mar 17, 2012 [H/t Catherine French]
[SEPP Comment: Complete with satellite photo with the caption “The Receding Himalayan glaciers”, yet the glaciers are not receding.]
Fairy Tales on the Road to Rio
By Donna Laframboise, Mar 19, 2012
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2012/03/19/fairy-tales-on-the-road-to-rio/
[SEPP Comment: International political science masking as physical science.]
“Fundamental steps needed now in global redesign of Earth system governance”
By Staff Writer, SPPI, Mar 23, 2012
http://sppiblog.org/news/fundamental-steps-needed-now-in-global-redesign-of-earth-system-governance
[SEPP Comment: Commentary on a story of the call by 32 social scientists for global governance to protect humanity from climate change.]
The Gleick Affair
Climate debate must be unfettered by obfuscation
By William Kininmonth and Des Moore, Letters, The Australian, Mar 19, 2012
Seeking a Common Ground
Pseudoscience (?)
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc, Mar 20, 2012
http://judithcurry.com/2012/03/20/psuedoscience/#more-7791
[SEPP Comment: A discussion on the issue is climate science a pseudoscience as some skeptics assert it is.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
NRC’s artless untruths on climate change and food security
By Rud Istvan, Climate Etc, Mar 22, 2012
[SEPP Comment: Examples of how the National Resource Council is misleading the public about the impact of warming on food production.]
Climate double talk
By Peter Smith, Quadrant, Mar 23, 2012
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2012/03/climate-double-talk
We are entitled to expect more from the CSIRO [Australia’s national science agency]. It is duty bound to provide objective advice. If I can do this quick analysis of the data surely it can; unless its agenda overrides providing the Australian public with reliable information. We should expect more too from the Climate Commissioner. And the whole truth from politicians would be refreshing.
Climate to cost $2 trillion year in damage to oceans: study
By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP) March 21, 2012
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Climate_to_cost_2_trillion_year_in_damage_to_oceans_study_999.html
“This is not a scaremongering forecast,” says the report.
“Attention scientists and journalists: I want my word back. Forever, and Ever, and Ever”
By Harold Ambler, ICECAP, Mar 23, 2012
[SEPP Comment: A humorous demand that the term “ever” be removed from pronouncements on climate change.]
Glacier-fed river systems threatened by climate change
By Staff Writers, Copenhagen, Denmark (SPX), Mar 21, 2012
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Glacier_fed_river_systems_threatened_by_climate_change_999.html
[SEPP Comment: As if they were ever stable.]
Lung doctors expect respiratory diseases will worsen with global climate change
By Staff Writers, Davis CA (SPX), Mar 21, 2012
[SEPP Comment: Everything bad will intensify, nothing good will become better.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Global sea level likely to rise as much as 70 feet for future generations
By Staff Writers, New Brunswick NJ (SPX), Mar 23, 2012
“The natural state of the earth with present carbon dioxide levels is one with sea levels about 20 meters higher than at present,” he said.
[SEPP Comment: No reason to check the assumed sea level rise with satellite measured rise. The projected sensitivity of the earth to carbon dioxide is not being observed.]
Models v. Observations
Plants may absorb more carbon dioxide than previously thought
The capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to absorb carbon dioxide emissions from human activity may be greater than previously thought, according to a new study
By Simon Levey, Imperial College, London, Mar 22, 2012 [H/t GWPF]
http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/newssummary/news_22-3-2012-17-45-48
[SEPP Comment: An experiment that counters the assumptions in the climate models. According to geologists, the earth’s atmosphere once had more carbon dioxide than oxygen. Then green plants eat most of carbon dioxide, releasing oxygen. Why is it strange that green plants consume carbon dioxide?]
Measurement Issues
Global temperature historic record updated
By Staff Writers, London (UPI), Mar 19, 2012
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Global_temperature_historic_record_updated_999.html
HADCRUT4: Statistics, Science and Spin
By David Whitehouse, The Observatory, Mar 20, 2012
http://thegwpf.org/the-observatory/5262-hadcrut4-statistics-science-and-spin.html
A first look at CRUTEM4
By Clive Best, His Blog, Mar 21, 2012
http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=3493
[SEPP Comment: Many US stations dropped, many stations in Arctic regions added.]
CRU’s new HadCRUT4, hiding the decline yet again
By Anthony Watts with additions by Joe D’Aleo, ICECAP, Mar 21, 2012
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/crus_new_hadcrut4_hiding_the_decline_yet_again/
Those who cool the past are condemned to repeat it.
Changing Weather
The reality of a wet, cold summer has failed to dampen activists’ enthusiasm for alarmism
By: Miranda Devine, Sunday Telegraph, AU, March 18, 2012[H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: Alarmists predictions of drought led to human action contributing to the flooding of Brisbane.]
‘Calmer’ 2012 hurricane season forecast
By Staff Writers, Fort Collins, Colo. (UPI), Mar 21, 2012
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Calmer_2012_hurricane_season_forecast_999.html
March Warmth Trumps Many Previous High Temperature Records
By Christine McEnrue, Weatherbell Analytics, Mar 21, 2012
http://www.weatherbell.com/weather-news/march-warmth-trumps-many-previous-record-high-temperatures/
Unseasonably warm temperatures have dominated the eastern half of the nation for much of the month of March. New temperature records are being set with each passing day, some of which have been around since the early 1900s. Temperature records have been broken in more than 1,050 locations since March 13th. On March 19th alone, 367 high temperature records were broken across the US and 68 high temperature records were tied.
Changing Climate
Study Links Past Changes in Monsoon to Major Shifts in Indian Civilizations
By Staff Writers, Woods Hole MA (SPX), Mar 21, 2012
[SEPP Comment: Reinforcing HH Lamb’s classic Climate History and the Modern World]
Scientists use rare mineral to correlate past climate events in Europe, Antarctica
By Staff Writers, Syracuse NY (SPX) Mar 23, 2012
[SEPP Comment: The statement: “We showed that the Northern European climate events influenced climate conditions in Antarctica,” Lu says, implies causation. A more correct statement would be that they occurred at similar times.]
Paper: Antarctica did experience both MWP and LIA
By Lubos Motl, Reference Frame, Mar 23, 2012
http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/03/paper-antarctica-did-experience-both.html#more
Medieval warming WAS global – new science contradicts IPCC
By Lewis Page, A Register, Mar 23, 2012
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/03/23/warm_period_little_ice_age_global/
“The end for small glaciers” or anthropogenic circular reasoning?
By David Middleton, WUWT, Mar 19, 2012
Changing Seas
Millions of Americans at risk of flooding as sea levels rise
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Mar 20, 2012
[SEPP Comment: Why bother with observations when models give scarier scenarios.]
New study lowers estimate of ancient sea-level rise
By Staff Writers, New York NY (SPX), Mar 23, 2012
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/New_study_lowers_estimate_of_ancient_sea_level_rise_999.html
Average global sea level has risen eight inches since the 1880s. It is currently rising an inch per decade, driven by thermal expansion of seawater and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, including the still mostly intact ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica.
[SEPP Comment: Past sea level rise unrelated to CO2 emissions.]
New dataset provides 40 year record of CO2 accumulation in the surface ocean
By Staff Writers, Norwich UK (SPX), Mar 23, 2012
[SEPP Comment: The premise behind blanket statements such as CO2 absorption by oceans benefit humanity by reducing CO2 concentrations is questionable.]
Changing Sea Ice
Could Arctic Sea Ice Decline be Caused by the Arctic Oscillation?
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Mar 22, 2012
[SEPP Comment: As TWTW has reported, studies show that the flow of fresh water in the Arctic Ocean has changed.]
Sea Ice News Volume3, #2
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 18, 2012
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/18/sea-ice-news-volume-3-2/
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Corn insecticide linked to great die-off of beneficial honeybees
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Mar 23, 2012
[SEPP Comment: May be an important beginning to understanding the great die-offs.]
Litigation Issues
EU mulls ‘green lawsuits’ against China
By Staff Writers, Euractiv, Mar 21, 2012
http://www.euractiv.com/climate-environment/eu-mulls-green-lawsuits-china-news-511615
[SEPP Comment: Chinese subsidies of wind and solar are unfair, but EU’s subsidies are not?]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Federal Agencies Implement Hundreds of Initiatives [for Renewable Energy]
By Staff Writers GAO-12-260, Feb 27, 2012 [H/t Timothy Wise
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-260
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Ending EPA’s land grab
Supreme Court delivers lesson in humility to arrogant agency
Editorial, Washington Times, Mar 21, 2012
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/21/editorial-ending-epas-land-grab/
Court backs Idaho couple in battle with EPA
By Valerie Richardson, Washington Times, Mar 21, 2012
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/21/court-backs-idaho-couple-battle-epa/
Murray facts & fictions
By Max Rheese, Quadrant, AU, Mar 21, 2012
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2012/03/murray-facts-fictions
How did we get to this, where a false premise based on junk science, is accepted as the starting point for major water reform?
EPA’s Heavy Hand Seen In Gas Crisis
Editorial, IBD, Mar 22, 2012
http://news.investors.com/article/605348/201203221853/epa-partly-to-blame-for-gas-crisis.htm
Energy Issues – Non-US
Why North America is the new Middle East: Citibank
By Yadullah Hussain, Financial Post, Mar 23, 2012
[SEPP Comment: Projections from a narrow data base are deadly. But, the potential exists.]
Oil sands facing new scrutiny by U.S. politicians
By Robert Hiltz, Financial Post, Can, Mar 21, 2012
[SEPP Comment: A US Congressional hearing on oil sands that was more interested in factual details than political posturing.]
More countries start rare-earth mining
By Staff Writers, Newcastle, England (UPI), Mar 21, 2012
http://www.spacemart.com/reports/More_countries_start_rare-earth_mining_999.html
Energy Issues — US
Exposing the 2 percent oil reserves myth
By Staff Writers, IER, Mar 13, 2012 [H/t Randy Randol]
http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/03/13/exposing-the-2-percent-oil-reserves-myth/
Yes, We Can Lower Gas Prices Today
By Thomas Pyle, IBD, Mar 22, 2012
http://news.investors.com/article/605286/201203221818/how-to-cut-gasoline-prices-today.htm
How the U.S. dropped the ball on energy independence
Editorial, Financial Post, Mar 20, 2012
U.S. Inches Toward Goal of Energy Independence
By Clifford Krauss and Eric Lipton, NYT, Mar 22, 2012
[SEPP Comment: Even the NYT recognizes the impact of 21st century drilling techniques. Energy independence is a straw man argument: energy security is the key issue.]
Cash for Flunkers: A Bold New Energy Strategy
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Mar 20, 2012
http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2012/03/20/cash-for-flunkers-a-bold-new-energy-strategy/
[SEPP Comment: A humorous look at Washington’s energy policy.]
Cheaper Gasoline Starts at the EPA
By Bruce Thompson, American Thinker, Mar 20, 2012
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/03/cheaper_gasoline_starts_at_the_epa.html
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
France’s Total eyes new China tie-up: report
By Staff Writers, New York (AFP), March 18, 2012
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Frances_Total_eyes_new_China_tie-up_report_999.html
[SEPP Comment: One of several agreements with international companies on oil or gas from shale.]
Study: ‘Fracking’ may increase air pollution health risks
By Neela Banerjee, LA Times, Mar 20, 2012
Gas Drilling Did Not Contaminate Water in Pennsylvania Town, EPA Finds
By Staff Writers, AP, Mar 16, 2012 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.governing.com/news/local/ap-gas-drilling-did-not-contaminate-water-in-pennsylvania.html
US Administration’s Control of Oil and Gas
Fossil fuel production on federal lands at 9 year low
By Staff Writers, IER, Mar 15, 2012
Pipeline ruling filled with politics
White House sided with EPA against State Department
By J.C. Watts, Washington Times, Mar 21, 2012
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/21/pipeline-ruling-filled-with-politics/
TransCanada moves forward to build the southern half of Keystone XL pipeline…Obama says “OK”
By Rebecca DiFede, Net Right Daily, Mar 22, 2012
Obama’s Keystone XL Visit A Potemkin Village Photo-Op
Editorial, IBD, Mar 21, 2012
http://news.investors.com/article/605139/201203211855/obama-keystone-xl-pipeline-photo-op-.htm
Oil Spills & Consequences
Chevron accused of ‘environmental crime’ in Brazil
By Staff Writers, Rio De Janeiro (AFP), March 21, 2012
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Chevron_accused_of_environmental_crime_in_Brazil_999.html
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Nuclear power only option despite Fukushima: industry
By Staff Writers, Seoul (AFP), March 23, 2012
[SEPP Comment: Japan does not have domestic alternatives to generate electricity.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Study: it takes 10 units of alternative electricity sources to offset 1 unit of fossil fuel-generated power
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 21, 2012
President Obama Doubles Down On Dim Renewable Energy Plan
By Margo Thorning, IBD, Mar 20, 2012
http://news.investors.com/article/604964/201203201818/obama-stays-with-failed-energy-gambles.htm
Carbon Schemes
Deep Saline Aquifers Could Provide Century’s Worth of CCS, MIT Study Says
By Staff Writers, Power News, Mar 22, 2012
http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/4487.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2408943&hq_l=16&hq_v=5e660500d0
[SEPP Comment: At what cost? Will it be beneficial?]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Summit Surface Snow Temperatures of Greenland
Reference: Kobashi, T., Kawamura, K., Severinghaus, J.P., Barnola, J.-M., Nakaegawa, T., Vinther, B.M., Johnsen, S.J. and Box, J.E. 2011. High variability of Greenland surface temperature over the past 4000 years estimated from trapped air in an ice core. Geophysical Research Letters 38: 10.1029/2011GL049444.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/mar/20mar2012a1.html
[SEPP Comment: Using different techniques than some prior studies, the researchers found somewhat higher temperatures over the last decade than the average over the past 4000 years – minus 29.9°C compared with minus 30.7°C. Yet, it was appreciably warmer for extended periods than for the last decade.]
Further Analyses of Hot and Cold Times on the Tibetan Plateau
Reference: Liu, Y., Cai, Q.F., Song, H.M., An, Z.S. and Linderholm, H.W. 2011. Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Chinese Science Bulletin 56: 2986-2994.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/mar/20mar2012a3.html
“extreme climatic events on the Plateau, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th Century Warming appeared synchronously with those in other places worldwide.”
the five researchers remark that the 1324-year cycle “approximates the well-known dominant climate change cycle of 1374±502 years in the Holocene (Bond et al., 1997) and the 1470-year cycle in Dansgaard/Oeschger events in the last glacial period,”… “cold intervals corresponded to sunspot minimums.”
Historical Simulations of an Astronomically-Based Climate Model vs. Those of the Global Circulation Models Promoted by the IPCC
Reference: Scafetta, N. 2012. Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics: 10.1016/j.jastp.2011.12.005.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/mar/21mar2012a1.html
[SEPP Comment: Project warming of 0.3-1.2°C by 2100 is considerably less than the IPCC models project and in line with empirical studies of the earth’s sensitivity to increasing CO2]
The Post-1950 Activity of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Reference: Ren, F., Liang, J., Wu, G., Dong, W. and Yang, X. 2011. Reliability analysis of climate change of tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific. Journal of Climate 24: 5887-5898.
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/mar/21mar2012a3.html
Three different data sets “show no obvious increasing or decreasing trend over the past 50 years.”
Health, Energy, and Climate
2 California researchers win prestigious Tyler Prize
John H. Seinfeld, a professor at Caltech, was recognized for research into the origin and evolution of particles in the atmosphere. Kirk R. Smith, a professor at UC Berkeley, was cited for research demonstrating the debilitating risk of air pollution in developing nations.
By Scott Gold, Los Angeles Times, Mar 20, 2012
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-environmental-award-20120320,0,2557112.story
[SEPP Comment: Indoor air pollution from traditional fuels is devastating.]
Oh Mann!
Reader Rebuttal (Michael E. Mann): Climate change research
By Michael Mann, Orange County Register, Mar 16, 2012
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/climate-345002-change-emails.html
[SEPP Comment: Fred Singer’s comments will appear next week.]
Prince William climate change case takes center stage
By Tom Jackman, Washington Post, Mar 21, 2012 [H/t Chris Horner]
[SEPP Comment: A solid review of the legal issues involved in the freedom of information demand for Mr. Mann’s emails from the University of Virginia.]
Environmental Industry
Obama Sells Out Science for Campaign Cash
By Robert Goldberg, American Spectator, Mar 21, 2012
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/03/21/obama-sells-out-science-for-ca
Other Scientific News
Geomagnetic data reveal unusual nature of recent solar minimum
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 19, 2012
Other News that May Be of Interest
Nitrate in drinking water poses health risks for rural Californians
By Staff Writers, Davis CA (SPX), Mar 19, 2012
###################################################
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Chu: Better than A-Minus on Keeping Gas Prices Down
By CJ Ciaramella, Washington Free Beacon, Mar 20, 2012 [H/t Alexanian Moorad]
http://freebeacon.com/chu-better-than-a-minus-on-keeping-gas-prices-down-2/
Energy requirements make Antarctic fur seal pups vulnerable to climate change
By Staff Writers, Santa Cruz CA (SPX), Mar 23, 2012
[SEPP Comment: The Antarctic equivalent to polar bears? But polar bears eat seal pups – at the other pole.]
###################################################
March 31: Ken Haapala will be speaking at the Capital Science 2012 Conference sponsored by the Washington Academy of Sciences at 10 am. The topic is “Wind and Solar Power – the Past or the Future.” Unfortunately, registration and a fee are required. The Conference will be held at Virginia Tech, GWU, (branches) and Marymount Universities in Arlington, VA http://www.washacadsci.org/capsci12/body.htm
###################################################
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Andrew says:
March 25, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Willis Eschenbach says:
March 25, 2012 at 5:21 pm
“Import tariffs are how the rich countries got rich, and the current lack of them is the reason the poor countries stay poor. ”
That is not the case Willis.
I used to believe as you do, Andrew. Read the book and come back and tell us why it’s wrong.
w.
———————————————————————————————
Many thanks for your response Willis and thanks also for raising my attention to this book.
I haven’t read it but if the reviews are anything to go by it is well worth doing so and I shall. At this point I have read a brief synopsis of Reinert’s boo and whilst my current understanding of this work may or may not prove to be adequate at this time, for what it’s worth, my initial thoughts/ comments are as follows:
1. I wonder if his central proposition actually confuses free-trade (ie. trade voluntarily entered into) with unfree models of trade, for example, of the form we have touched on above ie., of a corporatist (ie. coercive) form. Trade conducted by corporatist businesses under the cloak of free-trade which uses tricks like subsidy and other forms of state support to displace competitors and perhaps even to hollow-out the host’ economy (if the displacement occurs across industries) is certainly not “free-trade” in the ‘Austrian’ sense of the term.
2. If the argument is that economies/ markets need protection from socialistic-corporatist models of (coercive) trade then that certainly carries some weight, however, two wrongs don’t make a right…
3. The existence of considerable archaeological evidence of trade between groups prior to the formation of the nation state (or its prototypes) in many regions of the world unequivocally demonstrates that voluntary (free) trade must benefit all parties to it – otherwise they would not have been party to it and there would have been no evidence of trade.
4. As far as I am aware, it has never been suggested that trade in olive oil throughout the Mediterranean by the mobile Athenians prior to Solon in the 6th century BC (ie. before the nation state proper) deterred the growing of olive trees and production of oil by farmers in the Penepolise?
5. If we therefore discount forms of (unfree) trade conducted under the auspices of State-sponsored adventurism in all its forms eg., corporatism, conquest, colonialism, piracy, privateering etc (since none of are voluntary and by definition are therefore not free) does Reinert’s thesis hold any water at all?
6. Is there possibly something akin to F. Bastiat’s ‘broken window fallacy’ in Reinert’s thesis in as much that the argument that a broken window must benefit the glazier ignores the fact that the money to repair it must necessarily be taken from the budget available to spend at the tailors or the shoe shop.
As Johanna above points out extremely succinctly, protectionism (cf. Its counterpart being economic stimulation in Bastiat’s example) redistributes money from one part of the economy – by increasing the prices consumers must pay for the protected goods – and directs it to another. But there is no net gain in wealth.
7. The example of China’s recent history is not supportive of Reinert’s argument of alleged benefits of protectionism. Under Mao, there was almost zero growth. Almost all people remained in abject poverty (those that didn’t die in the many famines). By contrast, as China has opened up its trade to the world its economy has taken off like a rocket and it’s people have become much wealthier. The argument that this has only occurredas a result of Chiina’s external trade whilst protecting it’s own market is not correct.. China is full of foreign corporations. A great deal of the profits generated by Nike in manufacturing product in China, for example, flow back to the US.
So, we can say that from China’s experience that a more open economy = more growth and less poverty. Less open economies (more ‘protection’) means less growth for all but the protected industry/ corporate entity. If Reinert argues otherwise, then he how to account for account for China’s growth rate under Mao Tse Tung vs Deng Xia Ping.
They wre were both central planners afterall.
Just my initial thoughts Willis – happy for you to set me straight on any of the above.
Regards.
A
LazyTeenager says:
March 26, 2012 at 5:03 am
They are full of fudge factors that are fitted to the existing climate, so the models more or less agree with the observed data.
———–
This would be misleading. The early models would likely have used empirical relationships in line with limitations in detailed understanding of the physics and the limitations of computer performance.
Engineering uses the same practices without criticism.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Not quite. In the “Old Days”, builders whose structures fell down were put to death so “empirical” formulae have always been conservative and still are. It has to be shown to WORK. Modern discipline in the engineering field is still fairly severe. You lose your right to practice.
The climate models are not conservative and science being science, does not have harsh penalties fro being wrong.
Nicely put, Andrew. There is a big difference between free trade in the true meaning of the term and corrupted versions of it based on state interventions such as subsidies, tax breaks or imposition of conditions on trading partners like ‘environmental’ or ’employment’ standards which are really just a way of stifling competition.
The EU is one of the worst offenders with a raft of subsidies and attempts to make everyone comply with their self imposed economic suicide (the latest example being the airline tax). The current economic plight of most EU members is a salutary reminder of where that kind of insular mentality leads.
And yes, the Chinese economic boom coincides exactly with its opening up to world trade. Just as economic theory predicts, the benefits have also been spread to its trading partners – Australia would be in dire straits right now without our sales of raw materials to China and imports of cheap consumer goods from it.
Thankyou johanna. Btw, you write beautifully. I much admire it.
Why, thank you. And right back at you – I enjoyed your post too.
(Apologies mods, but compliments on writing on WUWT – except to Willis and Anthony – are rare and therefore valued).
Great Freeman Dyson quote.
The original source is apparently here: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=985641c9-8594-43c2-802d-947d65555e8e
From that story:
“Prof. Dyson explains that the many components of climate models are divorced from first principles and are “parameterized” — incorporated by reference to their measured effects.:
Dyson relates a story about Enrico Fermi:
“He replied, ‘How many arbitrary parameters did you use for your calculations?’ I thought for a moment about our cut-off procedures and said, ‘Four.’ He said, ‘I remember my friend Johnny von Neumann [the co-creator of game theory] used to say, with four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.’ With that, the conversation was over.”
“Prof. Dyson soon abandoned this line of inquiry. Only years later, after Fermi’s death, did new developments in science confirm that the impressive agreement between Prof. Dyson’s model and Fermi’s measurements was bogus, and that Prof. Dyson and his students had been spared years of grief by Fermi’s wise dismissal of his speculative model.”
Great quotes Chris. I’m going to keep Fermi’s reply in a little draw somewhere and bring it out whenever the econometrics people starting referring to their silly rational-utility-maximising-agent models. Thanks!
Remember Tsonis’ stuff on network synchronization?
There’s a solar tie-in:
Solar-Terrestrial Resonance, Climate Shifts, & the Chandler Wobble Phase Reversal
http://www.billhowell.ca/Paul%20L%20Vaughan/Vaughan%20120324%20Solar-Terrestrial%20Resonance,%20Climate%20Shifts,%20&%20the%20Chandler%20Wobble%20Phase%20Reversal.pdf
We have a proverb: “Where there’s a lot of grandmother, children suffering from hernia.”
Thus, in considering the causes of climate change has many inadequacies and arbitrariness, not to speak of the ignorance of natural laws that are the generators of all phenomena in the solar system.
It is even impossible for so many arguments to find something that would correspond to natural laws.
Everything was done on the basis of measurements and mathematical models based on unnatural laws.
Did not then pay to waste time and reputation on the study of such data?
The elements of the solar system and their mutual interaction are relevant here and not a human factors as CO2.
If someone is interested, I have a mathematical proof.
Since this is a tremendously important and interesting field for humanity, I hope that you will not waste time to achieve this.
As can be seen from all the evidence so far, will not be much chance for this to happen.