From Georgia Tech, the science press release that gave us the best-warming-headline-evah thanks to media spin, likely started by BBC’s Richard Black. It is worth noting that this study cites data from such a short time from 2009-2011. Surely if any skeptical paper used such a short time period for a climatic conclusion, the paper would be laughed at and derided as the the worst kind of cherry picking. But, there’s a difference here, this paper is about synoptic scale events, in seasonal time periods, so while on one hand Arctic sea ice decline is said to be a climatic scale event (which I and others believe is driven by Asian industrialization soot and wind patterns rather than temperature), synoptic effects leading to snowier winters in the northern hemisphere is a seasonal scale event. Still, as the maxim we are constantly reminded of goes, correlation does not necessarily equal causation. The circumpolar vortex is a complex thing, like a pulsating amoeba, the lobes of high and lows can be pushed around by regional effects, so the idea isn’t totally implausible. But, I’m reserving judgment on the synoptic effects of sea ice loss on NH winter weather patterns until I see more examples. – Anthony
Arctic Sea Ice Decline May be Driving Snowy Winters Seen in Recent Years
A new study led by the Georgia Institute of Technology provides further evidence of a relationship between melting ice in the Arctic regions and widespread cold outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere. The study’s findings could be used to improve seasonal forecasting of snow and temperature anomalies across northern continents.
Since the level of Arctic sea ice set a new record low in 2007, significantly above-normal winter snow cover has been seen in large parts of the northern United States, northwestern and central Europe, and northern and central China. During the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, the Northern Hemisphere measured its second and third largest snow cover levels on record.
“Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation,” said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech. “The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents.”
The study was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The research was supported by NASA and the National Science Foundation.
In this study, scientists from Georgia Tech, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Columbia University expanded on previous research by combining observational data and model simulations to explore the link between unusually large snowfall amounts in the Northern Hemisphere in recent winters and diminishing Arctic sea ice.
The researchers analyzed observational data collected between 1979 and 2010 and found that a decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice of 1 million square kilometers — the size of the surface area of Egypt — corresponded to significantly above-normal winter snow cover in large parts of the northern United States, northwestern and central Europe, and northern and central China.
The analysis revealed two major factors that could be contributing to the unusually large snowfall in recent winters — changes in atmospheric circulation and changes in atmospheric water vapor content — which are both linked to diminishing Arctic sea ice. Strong warming in the Arctic through the late summer and autumn appears to be enhancing the melting of sea ice.
“We think the recent snowy winters could be caused by the retreating Arctic ice altering atmospheric circulation patterns by weakening westerly winds, increasing the amplitude of the jet stream and increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere,” explained Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech. “These pattern changes enhance blocking patterns that favor more frequent movement of cold air masses to middle and lower latitudes, leading to increased heavy snowfall in Europe and the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States.”
Diminishing Arctic sea ice can cause changes in atmospheric circulation that lead to a circulation pattern that is different than the “negative phase” of the Arctic Oscillation.
In addition to analyzing observational data, the researchers also assessed the impact of the diminishing Arctic sea ice on atmospheric circulation by comparing the results of model simulations run with different sea ice distribution. They ran one experiment that assumed seasonally varying Arctic sea ice and utilized sea ice concentration data collected between 1979 and 2010. Another simulation incorporated prescribed sea ice loss in autumn and winter based on satellite-derived Arctic sea ice concentrations.
The simulations showed that diminishing Arctic sea ice induced a significant surface warming in the Arctic Ocean and Greenland/northeastern Canada, and cooling over northern North America, Europe, Siberia and eastern Asia. The models also showed above-normal winter snowfall in large parts of the northern United States, central Europe, and northern and central China.
The consistent relationships seen in the model simulations and observational data illustrate that the rapid loss of sea ice in summer and delayed recovery of sea ice in autumn modulates snow cover, winter temperature and the frequency of cold air outbreaks in northern mid-latitudes.
Huijun Wang and Mirong Song of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Radley Horton from the Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research also contributed to this work.
This project was supported by the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study and the National Science Foundation (NSF) (Award No. ANT-0838920). The content is solely the responsibility of the principal investigators and does not necessarily represent the official views of NASA or the NSF.
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Atlanta, Georgia 30308 USA
Isn’t this similar to Herman Alexander Pope’s hypothesis of negative feedback equilibrium covered on Judith Curry’s blog here?
http://judithcurry.com/2011/11/18/ipcc-special-report-on-extreme-events/#comment-140275
I reserve opinion on this. But note that of the USA winter weather patterns, only two would accommodate the hypothesis, and those are the more uncommon.
http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/winter-patterns/#
Note that when you use this feature, to escape the blowup, there is an “esc” button in upper right hand corner.
Beringia was woodland forest and grassland/steep during that last glaciation. Just something to ponder. OTH, stating that Increasing arctic ice could cause warmer NH winters, would be just as relevant as the spin-full headline.
What is quite refreshing from the press release, is there is no reference to “climate”. From this press release, it seems clear that the research is focused on the level of arctic ice in the autumn, and what the weather patterns are like in the Northern Hemisphere during the following winter. While some might spin it, Georgia Tech doesn’t seem to do that.
Apparently the arctic didn’t retreat enough this time around since Scandinavia hardly got any snow at all, nor was it especially cold for too long. Too bad it doesn’t seem to fit the snowiest and coldest winters neither, so maybe they ought not include all of europe.
…and found that a decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice of 1 million square kilometers — the size of the surface area of Egypt…
Because merely saying “as big as Egypt” isn’t scientifically precise enough. Of course “surface area” would include the proper adding up of all the sides of all those Egyptian mountains and valleys, etc, which may actually be too large. From here comes the “flat” measurement with some common reference units:
Covering 1,001,449 km2, Egypt has a land area about the same as that of Texas and New Mexico combined, four times bigger than that of the United Kingdom, and twice as big as that of France.
Sadly they neglected to include the conversions to American football fields and Olympic-sized swimming pools, although the latter more often refers to a unit of volume.
Wow, a million square kilometers. That’s impressive. That’s almost the size of Gleick’s, Black’s, and Connolley’s egos combined.
Climate science has turned into peer reviewed comedy. It no longer scares their public but it scares the hell out of stand up comedians.
I am going to plagiarize a post from someone else on this blog a few months ago.
If we use this theory as a thought experiment and carry it out to its furthest point –
Global warming induced by Carbon Dioxide will warm the Arctic Ocean until it becomes a bubbling cauldron surrounded by a doughnut of snow.
A massive cooling took place during northern hemispheric winters over the past 5 years, this coincided with a solar cycle which Sun Spot Numbers fell to zero for any length of time since approximately 1934, there were 5 previous solar cycles which Sun Spot Numbers fell to zero for any length of time since 1866 resulting in over all cooler winters, compare this to the cycles from 1954 to 2012 when there have been just one solar cycle which Sun Spot Numbers fell to zero for any length of time and that was in 2008, the physical solar effects indicated by a cycle of sun spot number is more plausible for any warming/cooling of northern hemispheric winters, snowier NH winters apparently still coincide Colder NH winters.
Anthropogenic Global warming => Sea ice decline => snowier NH wintersJunkscience.
http://virakkraft.com/AO-snow-cover.png
The history of British winters
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-history;sess=
As a whole, the mid 1800s [were] very snowy (the little ice age ending), but the nearer the end of the century came, the smaller the snowfalls grew, until the early 1900s, they were little or average, emulating the 90’s. It looks as though the ends and beginnings of centuries record little snow, whereas the middle two quarters receive lots. The pattern continues. 1909-15 recorded little or average snowfalls, nothing really to write home about, other than a few falls of up to 2.5 ft, but no real consistency in the cold/snowy periods. London came away with practically no snowfall in 1912-13, whereas Northern Britain was quite snowy. This decade was far from good for snow lovers! I bet they started talking of no more snow for the UK again, as we are doing now. Shows how wrong they were…
The snow drought ended abruptly in 1916, with enormous falls of snow in the mountains, 10ft in the Pennines, Black Mountains, and the High Peak District. Several general falls of snow recorded. A very snowy year.
1946-47: The year you’ve most probably been waiting for! One of the snowiest winters to date, probably the worst since 1814 (see part 5). Snow fell on the 19th December in Southern England. Then there was a notable mild spell, extremely mild in parts, with 14c being reached by day. Then from the 22nd January, it began! There was continuous snow cover from this date, right up till 17th March! Late January saw 7 inches of snow in South West England and the Scilly Isles (unusual). Early February saw the turn of the Midlands (Southern) and East Anglia, while Northern England, North Wales and Eastern Scotland saw snow in late February. In early March there was a blizzard in England and Wales, with 1ft widely, and 5ft accumulated on the hills! 12th March saw snow for the Border Country. 1946-47 was strange, because it started up late, and lasted a long time. I think 2003-04 will mirror 1947 in lots of ways, mainly in terms of snowfall, but not so extreme and long lasting. Very snowy.
GSL — Rutgers University Global Snow Lab
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/
Fall Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=4
From the BBC article
“The picture is further complicated by the involvement of the Arctic Oscillation, a natural variation of air pressure that also changes northern weather.
Dr Len Shaffrey, University of Reading: “This is very early days for this research”
The oscillation is not understood well enough to predict – and even if it were, any pattern it has may be changing due to escalating greenhouse gas concentrations.”
At last, I now know what it feels to be “gobsmacked”.
Interesting…. this explains why there’s no amplified response in the last 10 years or so…..
http://suyts.wordpress.com/2012/02/28/polar-amplification-earths-response-to-sea-ice-albedo-feedback/
Well, no response at all…. temp wise.
At 23 north (average) Egypt is too far north to compare on Hansen-Mann’s favorite Mercator map projections – which are required to imply that the Arctic Ocean and Greenland’s ice cap are larger than South America and Africa combined!
Of the equatorial countries, Tanzania (slightly smaller at roughly 800,000 km2) or Angola (slightly larger at 1246700 km2) gives a better contrast. Northern Territory (Australia) is also slightly larger at 1,200,000 km2 at about 15 south. Maybe we should “average” Egypt and South Australia: also at 1,000,000 km2 but balancing Egypt at 23 south.
After looking at Rutgers Snowfall trend analysis, which you can see by clicking the posted link, and as a fan of the whole Sea Ice saga for several years, a number of issues jump to mind if Sea Ice in the Arctic is being used as the smoking gun.
The snow fall trends show a fairly flat Fall trend, Winter increase in the US, and an overall Spring decline long before the Sea Ice record began. So it seems logical to conclude that the average used for Sea Ice extent and its implied implication on climate is “fubar”.
Personal opinion from the John Q. Public POV and possibly incorrect.
Note some more of the attendant feedback effects: open water means more CO2 absorption; more snow on existing sea ice means higher albedo; more snow on in-feeding river basins means fresher surface water and higher freezing temperatures; increased convection over open water and possibly more surface snow being blown back into it; etc.
There are some odd things about the Atlantic; while the North is well organised the South is a mess:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AOT.htm
(one idea: the north has a strong earth’s magnetic field holding under control currents, while in the south the field is the weakest anywhere on the globe (the SA anomaly), so the currents are less regulated)
The Equator-Arctic has a strong mutual coupling, while there is none in for the Equator-Antarctica.
Could be a coincidence that up to 1980 Arctic was ‘inversely’ retracing its own steps from 62 years earlier?
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/EAA.htm
but even stranger coincidence (if it is that) so it does the Equator (following the Arctic from 62 years earlier), except when the Arctic broke off in 1980 (possibly due to volcanic ash) the Equator carried on for the full stretch to the present time.
Could this be the Scafetta’s 60 year cycle?
60 years is far too long for a negative feedback, but the oceanic tide 60 year half-cycle is feasible.
Until these events are clearly understood, the climate scientists don’t stand a chance to separate natural cycles from other climatic drivers, whatever they may be.
Technically an ice free Arctic could cause an ice age giving the precipition needed to build glaciers around dry regions of the Arctic and sub-Arctic. At the same time more energy from the ocean is lost to space forever, increasing the risk of the globe cooling. But this only applies in the reasoning that the initial warm period would cause snowier winters later in the NH. While there are snowier winters from this, the world itself can’t continue to warm, the likely senario would be future cooling, that may not never recover from. (human life time, hundreds of years or even a major ice age depending where in the sun’s cycle) This is not alarmist because it is only the real mechanism that can describe how ice ages start. Not suprsing then that many peak warm periods (warmer than today) rapidly descend into a major ice age.
Whether less ice causes colder and snowier winters for the NH is not supported by the data since satellites began. There have been far more winters that have been mild during low period of sea ice than cold ones. While the Arctic ice was at high levels there were still very cold and snowy winters and mild winters. The general trend of declining sea ice has been milder winters in the NH, not cold and snowy. The only change over the last few winters that this research has been claiming, is the much longer solar minimum.
MAVukcevic says:
February 28, 2012 at 11:17 am
“…Until these events are clearly understood, the climate scientists don’t stand a chance to separate natural cycles from other climatic drivers, whatever they may be.”
Isn’t that the funniest most comical part of warmology studied under the field of climatology by fanatical warmologists! the car get’s invented before the wheel, the cart gets put before the horse and the tail wags the dog etc…
Very interesting comments, especially from Tim Ball and RACookPE1978. First I have read of Rossby waves.
Dr. Ball: given the apparent ~60 year cyclic component in the global average temperature metric, would you suspect the source of this oscillation could be a Rossby wave?
MAVukcevic says:
February 28, 2012 at 11:17 am
==========
The cycles emerged from numerous studies on behalf of pragmatic concerns. The pragmatic concern was where to find fish (flavor and species of choice). The oceans apparently modulate the climate in a variety of ways.
From nearly every country that borders the seas and oceans, we have numerous studies related to the natural climate patterns and the influence on the species of choice.
My hands down favorite is from Russia but the US and Australia all confirm the same cycles in differing geographic ways.
Did the IPCC mess-up the feedbacks or are they guilty of a lack of insight related to natural forces and the cycles?
Is a study related to one small aspect of the climate system guilty of the same?
I bet Napoeon was pleased he invaded Russia during the LIA.
http://ts1.mm.bing.net/images/thumbnail.aspx?q=1626374144240&id=abf3b333b26e2588bcb6b6f71e29bd07
It’s warmer than we thought in the Arctic. GHCN’s adjustments for Iceland and Greenland also extend to Norway and Russia.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/02/28/iceland-adjustments-spread-to-norway-and-russia/#more-876
Bart says:
February 28, 2012 at 12:01 pm
“Dr. Ball: given the apparent ~60 year cyclic component in the global average temperature metric, would you suspect the source of this oscillation could be a Rossby wave?”
Perhaps as in slide #18 here.