Source here. Mind the caveat though:
The Japanese government estimated that the tsunami generated 25 million tons of rubble, but there is no clear understanding of exactly how much debris was swept into the water nor what remained afloat.
Tracking Marine Debris from the Japanese Tsunami
Debris scatters in the Pacific Ocean, possibly heading to U.S.
Debris from the tsunami that devastated Japan in March could reach the United States as early as this winter, according to predictions by NOAA scientists. However, they warn there is still a large amount of uncertainty over exactly what is still floating, where it’s located, where it will go, and when it will arrive. Responders now have a challenging, if not impossible situation on their hands: How do you deal with debris that could now impact U.S. shores, but is difficult to find?
Federal Agencies Join Forces
To learn more about the tsunami debris, NOAA researchers have been working with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and other partners to coordinate data collection activities.
NOAA and its partners are also coordinating an interagency assessment and response plan to address the wide-range of potential scenarios and threats posed by the debris.
“We’re preparing for the best and worst case scenarios — and everything in between,” says Nancy Wallace, director for NOAA’s Marine Debris Program.
As the tsunami surge receded, it washed much of what was in the coastal inundation zone into the ocean. Boats, pieces of smashed buildings, appliances, and plastic, metal, and rubber objects of all shapes and sizes washed into the water — either sinking near the shore or floating out to sea. The refuse formed large debris fields captured by satellite imagery and aerial photos of the coastal waters.
The Japanese government estimated that the tsunami generated 25 million tons of rubble, but there is no clear understanding of exactly how much debris was swept into the water nor what remained afloat.
What remains of the debris?
Nine months later, debris fields are no longer visible. Winds and ocean currents scattered items in the massive North Pacific Ocean to the point where debris is no longer visible from satellite. Vessels regularly traveling the North Pacific have reported very few sightings. Only two pieces have been clearly linked to the tsunami.
NOAA is coordinating new interagency reporting and monitoring efforts that will provide critical information on the location of the marine debris generated by the tsunami. Ships can now report significant at-sea debris sightings and individuals or groups can request shoreline monitoring guides at DisasterDebris@noaa.gov.
Where is it?
Computer models run by NOAA and University of Hawaii researchers show some debris could pass near or wash ashore in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument) as early as this winter, approach the West Coast of the United States and Canada in 2013, and circle back to the main Hawaiian Islands in 2014 through 2016.
Researchers caution that models are only predictions based on location of debris when it went into the water, combined with historical ocean currents and wind speeds.
Conditions in the ocean constantly change, and items can sink, break down, and disperse across a huge area. Because it is not known what remains in the water column nor where, scientists can’t determine with certainty if any debris will wash ashore.
Worst- and Best-case Scenarios
The worst-case scenario is boats and unmanageable concentrations of other heavy objects could wash ashore in sensitive areas, damage coral reefs, or interfere with navigation in Hawaii and along the U.S. West Coast. Best case? The debris will break up, disperse and eventually degrade, sparing coastal areas.
Debris will not go away completely, even in a best-case scenario. Marine debris is an ongoing problem for Hawaii and West Coast states, where garbage and other harmful items regularly wash up on beaches, reefs and other coastal areas.
What Else is NOAA Doing?
NOAA has convened experts to review available data and information from models and provide their perspectives on debris fate and transport. They are gathering information on significant sighting of marine debris in the North Pacific through NOAA’s Office of Marine and Aviation Operation’s Pacific fleet, the NOAA Voluntary Observing Ship Program, which includes industry long-haul transport vessels, as well as the NOAA Pacific Island Regional Observer Program and their work with the Hawaii longline fishing industry. NOAA is also working with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the State of Hawaii on shoreline debris monitoring in the Papahānaumokuākea Monument.
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Simple solution here. Stop generating your own garbage, and pay a garbage tax. BAM!
Why is the EPA allowing this? They should impose severe fines and penalties for cleanup..
There should be a law against fugitive waste on the ocean like the one they want to impose on farmers.
What a load of rubbish! Seems like they’d do good with some garbage collection before releasing stupidly worrying press releases.
NOAA science is a debris field!
Perhaps Greenpeace could be apprised of the danger to whales represented by this flotsam and jetsam. They could take their fleet of pirate / anti-whaling ships and scour the ocean at high speed looking for more evidence of the ‘evil’ Japanese and their environmental abuses. Hopefully they wil be swamped with trash – literally.
Perfectly good use of tax payer money, tracking rubbish thousands of miles outside their jurisdiction.
Debris fate and transport modeling? It would make an interesting intellectual exercise if it weren’t my tax dollars.
Some of that ‘debris’ will be valuable if it survives the trip. Art, samurai swords and other regalia, glass fishing floats, etc. I imagine that there will be a hoard of beachcombers descending on the west coast very soon.
Wow, what a great govt welfare job. Debris coordinator. Hard to find? Not there!
‘“We’re preparing for the best and worst case scenarios — and everything in between,” says Nancy Wallace.’
‘Conditions in the ocean constantly change, and items can sink, break down, and disperse across a huge area. Because it is not known what remains in the water column nor where, scientists can’t determine with certainty if any debris will wash ashore.’
In the meanwhile, NOAA is committing resources from several of their own offices and requiring the Hawaii longline fishing industry, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the State of Hawaii to make their own committments chasing this phantasm of their own paranoia.
The debris is a job generator for fisherman from the west coast who have been hurt by the latest no fishing zones. Have them deploy their nets to clean up the debris from the ocean when it comes close, same for Hawaiian fisherys. What is cuaght can be dried and used for Biomass electric generation. Same thing can be done for the plastic blob floating in the pacific, then sold for recycling. Simple solutions that would better serve the oceans and land than funding more studys. This is just my humble thoughts on it, anybody have better ideas? Using common sense usually works better than studying things to death, at least things get done.
I can already see EPA proposing CVBGs trawling the Pacific with nets tied to the ships to gather debris and offset operational costs via biomass and recycling plastic collection …
“Common sense” – one of the rarest commodities, especially in climate/weather modelling.
Only a bunch of under-worked, over-paid bureaucrats would come up with something so silly and then make it seem like they’re doing critical work to save us from garbage.
So, nothing new here … it’ll just be another batch of garbage to gather up from the shoreline once it arrives.
NOAA is behind the times. Tsunami debris – floating drink bottles with labels in Japanese writing and things of that ilk – has already started to reach British Columbia.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/dailybrew/tsunami-debris-reaches-b-c-coast-earlier-expected-212444835.html
I guess I don’t see the big problem here. Isn’t this how science is done? Our current knowledge is used to generate a model of the system. We now have a chance to gather some actual data to test the model and see where it gets things right, and where it breaks down.
What’s not to like about gathering data from vessels who volunteer to do it?
For those areas where the existing policy is to keep the shoreline clean, once the tsunami debris comes ashore, it will simply be classified into recyclable and non-recyclable components and then be disposed of along with all the other kinds of garbage which is usually being collected in such areas.
No big deal, really. More likely than not, once the tsunami debris starts coming ashore, there will be a brief increase in the number of regular shoreline garbage patrols that are needed, and then things will return to normal.
This is rubbish, in more than one way. It’s very simple to find and track this debris. Fly a TR-1 with a specially-modified radar system to monitor it. Most of this debris has a radar signature. Modifying the radar signal to penetrate up to twelve feet of ocean surface (in a calm ocean) is quite feasible. The TR-1 can monitor 35,000 square miles an hour, and can stay in the air for 12+ hours. They regularly fly out of Beale AFB in California. NASA and NOAA have U-2s, with other capabilities.
The truth is, 90% of it has probably sunk, and another 8% will sink in any good storm. Wood and plastic (which isn’t very detectable by radar) are probably about all that’s left, and probably not very large pieces at that. A lot of sea creatures, however, have new hiding places.
“but models have limitations.” – Not if you listen to the IPCC.
I think, using the Precautionary Principle, it would be best for all Americans to stay away from West Coast, Hawaiian and Alaskan beaches in 2012. The Japanese tsunami debris is likely to be radioactive: don’t forget, a lot of iodine and caesium products leaked into the sea water. Just because some of the radionucleides have short half-lives doesn’t mean there won’t be residual radioactivity.
Maybe y’all should step away from the bananas too.
Some Japanese tsunami debris has already started hitting the shore along the northern Washington coast and on Vancouver Island in Canada over the last two months. So, it’s not some maybe thing. It’s more a question of how much and what time frame it will occur.
Tsunamis have always swept vast amounts of debris out to sea. As a matter of fact this is probably the way a lot of the organisms on the Hawaiian islands originally got there.
By the way the estimate of 25 million tons seems rather low to me. The northeastern shore of Honshu is very heavily wooded and huge numbers of trees must have been uprooted by the tsunami (oddly enough Japan has proportionally more forests than the US). And trees float better and are a lot more durable than most man-made debris.
And curiousgeorge, I’m afraid that samurai swords don’t float very well.
JohnT,
“Isn’t this how science is done? Our current knowledge is used to generate a model of the system. We now have a chance to gather some actual data to test the model and see where it gets things right, and where it breaks down.”
Actually I don’t think this is how science is done. You start with observations and data and come to a theory AFTER … btw … how did science get done before computers ?
This is not new – the ocean debris issue. About 3 years ago when I visited northern Japan (in a town I lived in for seven years from the early 70s until 1980) I visited the seashore near there. The beaches of this seashore were where the large tsunami hit earlier this year. At that time several years ago, these beautiful beaches were covered with all kinds of debris from refrigerator sized pieces on down. I asked my friends why the normally tidy Japanese had allowed their beaches to become so dirty. They told me that they had tried and tried to clean them up (local governments, volunteer groups, etc.) but even though they continued to clean the beaches the debris kept coming back. Some effort was made to identify this debris and Chinese and Korean labels were found on almost all of it (in my earlier stay and subsequent visits I had never seen such a mess). Some of the debris was found to be medical waste. It was learned that ocean dumping (often times illegal) by both the Koreans and the Chinese had really escalated in the past few years and Japan was unable to do much about it. I am sure that the Japanese would be very interested in helping to clean up other countries that they have inadvertently spoiled when considering what has been done to their shores.
Bernie
We have a tendency to see events like this from purely a negative standpoint. However, one man’s debris can be another specie’s habitat. It would be really interesting to see the impacts on the open ocean fish production- where such “raft” habitat is limited. There will be entire mini-ecosystems organizing around the larger debris fields. It would also be interesting to see if (or how many) small vertebrates and invertebrates will be able to use this raft as a dispersal mechanism to cross the ocean- something very difficult to do without such large scale floating habitat.
In essence this is the largest manmade fish aggregating device ever seen and it would be a shame to miss out on the wealth of things this opportunity could teach us.
tty says:
December 29, 2011 at 11:06 am
And curiousgeorge, I’m afraid that samurai swords don’t float very well.
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Not by themselves, but many of those, and related family heirlooms, are kept in boxes, etc. It’s not beyond the realm of possiblity, although unlikely, that something of value would survive the trip.