Solar-Terrestrial Power Update

By Paul L. Vaughan, M.Sc.

The amplitude of Earth’s zonal winds is modulated by the solar cycle. Here’s a concise visual update based on the latest data:

LOD’ = rate of change of length of day

image

image

Data

ftp://ftp.iers.org/products/eop/long-term/c04_08/iau2000/eopc04_08_IAU2000.62-now ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/COSMIC_RAYS/STATION_DATA/Monthly_data/moscow.tab

0 0 votes
Article Rating

Discover more from Watts Up With That?

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

204 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Paul Vaughan
December 26, 2011 7:00 am

David L. Hagen,
Thanks for your comments.
The semi-annual grooves on LOD & aa are like train tracks that steer hard. At annual timescale, LOD is still grooved firmly due to the terrestrial north-south continent-ocean imbalance, but for aa the annual timescale train-ride isn’t so simple since the N-S balance isn’t so static. (Also keep in mind that the peaks aren’t in the same seasons.)
The modulation varies with the field – e.g. geomagnetic, SST, wind, etc. fields have differing geometry. If people here are already confused with just 2 graphs of grain = 0.5a extent = 11a zonal winds on the table, it’s easy to guess what would happen if I shared multiscale multivariate results, such as those which I have showing coherence amongst geomagnetic aa index, solar wind, Southern Ocean SST’, LOD’, sunspot numbers, & ENSO.
The ~1940 peak in a number of geophysical variables arises due to orbital modulation. You won’t find it in an unmodulated solar integral – (so we can’t limit our attention to unmodulated solar integrals).
Regards.

Paul Vaughan
December 26, 2011 7:31 am

Tony McGough (December 26, 2011 at 5:20 am)
“WUWT is for popular consumption. Please explain in easy words.”
I can suggest watching the wind animations to which I linked if you don’t know what the SAO (semi-annual oscillation) is. It’s pretty simple.
The calculations, on the other hand, are well beyond most (possibly not all) of the audience here, which is precisely why I volunteer the graphs to the community.
The WUWT community is vulnerable to abstract conception without access to the benefits of data-based conception. I brought a microscope, set the magnification to 6 months & the focal length to 11 years, and let people look. No computer model output. They’re real data, under a specific magnification at a specific focal length.
Whether you trust your eyes is up to you. Everyone is free to believe in the mainstream narrative of solar-terrestrial relations, which is fundamentally incompatible with observation. I guarantee that the narrative will change if enlightenment prevails in our society & civilization.
Regards.

Pamela Gray
December 26, 2011 7:32 am

Oh good heavens. All this can of course be modulated by intrinsic drivers. (Stephens words). End of debate.

James of the West
December 26, 2011 7:39 am

Paul,
you would be surprised what people can understand when an article has an introduction, a body with associated graphs that are discussed in the body and a conclusion that outlines the significance of the information presented. If you just throw graphs on the table then everyone starts guessing why you put them there and what they could really signify. See Bob Tisdale articles for a comparison to this article in terms of structure.

December 26, 2011 7:57 am

Paul Vaughan says:
December 26, 2011 at 2:40 am
Daily resolution LOD data start in 1962
Daily resolution LOD data are needed for this type of analysis.

1) your plot of LOD’ vs. Cosmic Rays shows a very strongly smoothed LOD’. Daily values are not needed for that. Good yearly values are available back to 1700 and with good enough resolution back to 1800: http://www.leif.org/research/LOD-Excess-and-Change.png Note that there is no 11-yr peak in either LOD or LOD’
2) The semiannual variation is due to internal atmospheric dynamics and is unrelated to cosmic ray intensity [CGRs don’t know about the Earth’s seasons]
davidmhoffer says:
December 26, 2011 at 12:35 am
Can you shed some light for us on what the sam heck this is? I got a better understanding of what Vaughn posted from your critique than from his post, and I know from past experience that getting Vaughn to explain it in something akin to english is just a waste of time.
Even if an explanation could be construed, the ‘finding’ is just junk, dressed up to be incomprehensible to mainstream morons.
tallbloke says:
December 26, 2011 at 12:35 am
Leif: Isn’t the Neutron count more closely inversely proportional to the speed/density of the solar wind than the sunspot count?
Of all the solar variations, the solar wind speed/density has the least to do with cosmic ray modulation. A cosmic ray spirals around magnetic field lines. If those are smooth, the cosmic ray can make its way into the inner solar system. If the field lines have kinks or are turbulent, the cosmic rays are scattered and some of them [a few percent depending on energy] are scatted back out of the solar system and don’t reach us, hence the modulation. The magnetic field strength, B, has something to do with this and the modulation shows a reasonable correlation with B, which in turn is well correlated with the sunspot count. But the real modulator is the warp of the heliospheric current sheet as John Wilcox and I explained in our 1976 Nature paper. If the HCS is strongly warped [at sunspot maximum] the scattering is at a maximum and we see fewer GCRs. At solar minimum the HCS is rather flat and the modulation is least.

Paul Vaughan
December 26, 2011 8:14 am

Pamela Gray (December 26, 2011 at 7:32 am)
“All this can of course be modulated by intrinsic drivers.”
That’s exactly what I said on p.9. The point is it’s much simpler demonstrating modulations at the frequencies of known stationary dominant temporal modes (e.g. year, semi-annual, QBO) — i.e. start with the easy stuff, catalog it, and patiently explore how the orbital modulations of solar excitation integrate across dominant temporal modes.

Paul Vaughan
December 26, 2011 8:23 am

Leif Svalgaard (December 26, 2011 at 7:57 am) egregiously misunderstood as follows:
“1) your plot of LOD’ vs. Cosmic Rays shows a very strongly smoothed LOD’. Daily values are not needed for that. Good yearly values are available back to 1700 and with good enough resolution back to 1800: http://www.leif.org/research/LOD-Excess-and-Change.png Note that there is no 11-yr peak in either LOD or LOD’ “
You canNOT do this analysis with annual values — nor with monthly.
Flat out TOO much aliasing of lunisolar pattern.
Incredibly naive & foolhardy of you to suggest otherwise. Also very irresponsible of you since so many innocents blindly defer to your judgement. You need to be called for not even understanding the calculations I’ve volunteered.
I challenge you to reproduce this exact graph:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image10.png

John Slayton
December 26, 2011 8:31 am

Mornin’ Paul,
All fields of inquiry have their specialized technical jargon, including my own (education). How does an intelligent layman react when confronted with unfamiliar language? Well, California Supreme Court Justice Otto Kaus was certainly intelligent, but he once remarked in a written decision that many experiences, too sad to relate in detail, had convinced him that large parts of the Education Code “were not meant to be understood.”
Cal State professor Herbert Landar had a different perspective. Commenting on his collateral reading list and making the point that the titles on the list were there because they were important, not because he agreed with them, he gave us the following advice: “If you can’t make sense out of what you’re reading and it seems like so much nonsense, I beg of you, consider the possibility that it may be so much nonsense.”
(Quote from memory is approximate. But hopefully clear.)
Having a clear day in Sierra Vista. : > )

Paul Vaughan
December 26, 2011 8:35 am

Leif Svalgaard (December 26, 2011 at 7:57 am)
“Even if an explanation could be construed, the ‘finding’ is just junk,”
Your ignorance is showing. This isn’t a new finding. It’s an update.
Reproduce the calculations (if you know how). My guess is you will do an analysis of something completely different and erect a strawman argument, because I honestly don’t think you can reproduce the calculations without serious trouble. Suggestion: Get help from one of your colleagues. Or ask me questions if you need to (but understand that I work the next 4 days).
Calling this junk is absolutely unacceptable & totally irresponsible Leif. Buckle down & get a better handle on the geometry of this time series.

December 26, 2011 8:38 am

Paul Vaughan says:
December 26, 2011 at 8:23 am
You canNOT do this analysis with annual values — nor with monthly.
Flat out TOO much aliasing of lunisolar pattern.

No aliasing at all. Your curve shows very heavily smoothing, so daily values are not needed. Show the values without smoothing.
not even understanding the calculations I’ve volunteered.
That you have ‘volunteered’ is commendable, but that does not mean that any of it is correct.
I challenge you to reproduce this exact graph:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image10.png

Why should I? You can compare it with Gross’s graphs [Figures 3 and 4] in http://trs-new.jpl.nasa.gov/dspace/bitstream/2014/28080/1/95-0060.pdf

Jeff C
December 26, 2011 8:39 am

I have to agree with the bulk of the comments, this has to be one of the worst posts in WUWT history. Frankly, it’s embarrassing. Assuming it actually does mean something, how about explaining it for those of us that can’t read the author’s mind?
Anthony must not be back from his Christmas break. Better to post nothing than something like this.

December 26, 2011 8:40 am

Paul Vaughan says:
December 26, 2011 at 8:35 am
Calling this junk is absolutely unacceptable & totally irresponsible Leif.
compare with Gross’s graphs [Figures 3 and 4] in http://trs-new.jpl.nasa.gov/dspace/bitstream/2014/28080/1/95-0060.pdf

Tim Clark
December 26, 2011 8:43 am

So, it ends with a hockey stick, or it’s worse than I thought, or whatever?

Tim Clark
December 26, 2011 8:47 am

Let me state clearly, regardless of the value or my understanding thereof, WUWT is the place for posting.

Paul Vaughan
December 26, 2011 8:53 am

of the West (December 26, 2011 at 7:39 am)
Call it ruthless prioritization if you like. I’ve no time for formalities. I need the few hours a week I have for calculations. No one else around here appears capable of doing them. (I mean no offense. This is a forthright honest assessment volunteered transparently.) Very serious financial backing is the only way I’ll be able to position myself to meet formal communication demands. Best Regards.

December 26, 2011 8:57 am

Leif has something I’ve experienced with a dear friend, who is a retired Chemical Engineering professor. I call it “professorial arrogance”. It results in proclimations of great “gravity”, centered on things COMPLETELY IN HIS REALM, but the pronounced inability to be flexible to changes and new ideas. 20 years ago, in some PAINFULLY long sessions I introduced said indivual to using MathCAD for technical write ups. He’s now in his ’80’s, and avidly uses MathCAD. But the transition from “Fortran” , calculators and engineering graph paper to the PC/MathCAD realm, was…to put it mildly, painful. I persisted, however, broke through the “professorial arrogance” and the result was a retired professor who published a third again as much in RETIREMENT as while
active.
So be kind to Leif. Give him some time to think things out. In a year he may consider this his “own idea”, and then it will garner great support.

December 26, 2011 9:00 am

Paul Vaughan
Thanks for the clarification/reminder that
“At annual timescale, LOD is still grooved firmly due to the terrestrial north-south continent-ocean imbalance,”
PS I encourage patience when responding to abuse or slow comprehension.
Happy New Year

Paul Vaughan
December 26, 2011 9:07 am

Leif Svalgaard (December 26, 2011 at 7:57 am) wrote:
“2) The semiannual variation is due to internal atmospheric dynamics “
Yes, plainly evident in the animations to which I linked.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/25/solar-terrestrial-power-update/#comment-843523

kim
December 26, 2011 9:19 am

Leif, I don’t find Gross’s graphs in figures 3&4 in your link 8:40 AM, which I’ve been invited to compare with Vaughan’s graphs.
====================

Paul Vaughan
December 26, 2011 9:21 am

Leif Svalgaard (December 26, 2011 at 8:40 am) wrote:
“compare with Gross’s graphs [Figures 3 and 4] in http://trs-new.jpl.nasa.gov/dspace/bitstream/2014/28080/1/95-0060.pdf
He’s looking at different features of the time series Leif. I have those & tons of other summaries on file. The time series has TONS of interesting features.
You (or anyone else) should be able to isolate any of the features he illustrates, any of the features I illustrate, or any of the features anyone else illustrates. Patient diligence with the geometry is in order.
For anyone reading here who is just starting out with LOD, I volunteered this to expedite introduction: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/10/solar-terrestrial-lunisolar-components-of-rate-of-change-of-length-of-day/ .
Regards.

Paul Vaughan
December 26, 2011 9:28 am

David L. Hagen wrote (December 26, 2011 at 9:00 am):
“Thanks for the clarification/reminder that
“At annual timescale, LOD is still grooved firmly due to the terrestrial north-south continent-ocean imbalance,””

You’re welcome. I’m eager to show how this differs from annual variation of geomagnetic aa index, as I hinted at Judith Curry’s a few days ago. I have some beautiful results.

Paul Vaughan
December 26, 2011 9:38 am

Leif Svalgaard (December 26, 2011 at 8:38 am)
“No aliasing at all. Your curve shows very heavily smoothing, so daily values are not needed. Show the values without smoothing.”
You don’t appear to be making an effort to interpret correctly. Or somehow along the way maybe you’ve missed some fundamentals.
It’s not a responsibility I enjoy, but the community needs to be aware that (so far) your comprehension is absent on this file. You’ll need to reproduce this: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/image10.png . It’s the way you’ll learn whatever it is you’re missing (which is difficult to diagnose given the info I have so far).

Paul Vaughan
December 26, 2011 9:41 am

Leif Svalgaard (December 26, 2011 at 8:38 am)
“That you have ‘volunteered’ is commendable, but that does not mean that any of it is correct.”
My capacity to do the calculations is sound. Let’s see if you can do them.

December 26, 2011 9:42 am

kim says:
December 26, 2011 at 9:19 am
Leif, I don’t find Gross’s graphs in figures 3&4 in your link 8:40 AM, which I’ve been invited to compare with Vaughan’s graphs.
Scroll to the bottom.
Paul Vaughan says:
December 26, 2011 at 9:21 am
He’s looking at different features of the time series Leif. I have those & tons of other summaries on file. The time series has TONS of interesting features.
At least he clearly labels what he is looking at. I see something called the LOD. I assume that is the same as you call LOD. I see something he calls semiannual LOD. I assume that is the same as what you call ‘0.5a’.
Anyway, I always take a look myself. Here are plots of the variation of LOD with a grain of 1 day [to speak your abominable lingo]. On the plot at the right is the time series and 91-day and 365-year means. At the left is the FFT power spectrum with daily resolution. There are clear 1 year and 0.5 year lines, as well as the various tidal lines around 27-30 days [and their harmonics at half, one-third, etc of that], but no evidence of power near 10 years.
Max Hugoson says:
December 26, 2011 at 8:57 am
I call it “professorial arrogance”
I call it ‘Professorial Expertise’ and a well-honed bullshit filter. Your filter seems to be seriously gummed up.

December 26, 2011 9:45 am

Leif Svalgaard says:
December 26, 2011 at 9:42 am
Anyway, I always take a look myself. Here are plots of the variation of LOD with a grain of 1 day
http://www.leif.org/research/LOD-Excess-and-Change-daily.png