Joe D’Aleo reports via email that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index has gone negative for this past month, see the graph below:
Source:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data
This is the first time the November value has been negative since about 1996. It appears the down cycle has started. This portends a cooler period, especially winters.
The Monthly value plot also shows the down cycle in progress, though this one is only updated to 2009:
The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe such as North Eastern Brazilian and African Sahel rainfall and North American and European summer climate. It is also associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes.
| Matt Vooro writes in this document: AMO, THE KEY GLOBAL CLIMATE INDICATOR |
The main climate indicator (in my opinion in the near term) is likely going to be the cool AMO, cool PDO. ENSO events and the changing polar jet stream which swings more often now north before coming south or heading east, bringing cold air to most of North America, and specially the western half and subsequently east, as the our climate moves from west to east.
The graph below shows the relationship between AMO and GLOBAL [ land and marine] TEMPERATURE ANOAMLIES [Hadcrut 3]. AMO appears to be like a thermostat or predictor of global temperatures. ENSO events if moderate or strong seem to modify, amplify or over-ride the AMO effects.
There are interesting times ahead.
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I knew it!!!!! Explains why I caught one of these last summer in Glacier Park: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KgPP2jF_jdU/TgddIqCYiDI/AAAAAAAABUI/-bZpas7PAIQ/s1600/Fur-bearing-fish.jpg
Don’t sweat it… the models will have predicted this as soon as they finish tweaking them to match what happened. It will certainly be Worse Than We Thought™… and in the end we’ll all still be “deniers” and we still won’t get to eat lunch at the cool table.
AMO, PDO, ENSO, sunspots all pointing to nasty cold front on the way.
In the meantime, the IPCC meme of late is to expect a “pause” in the warming for the next 20 or 30 years. As with their past predictions of global temperature…looks like they might be high yet again.
Craig Moore says:
December 9, 2011 at 3:31 pm
I knew it!!!!! Explains why I caught one of these last summer in Glacier Park: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KgPP2jF_jdU/TgddIqCYiDI/AAAAAAAABUI/-bZpas7PAIQ/s1600/Fur-bearing-fish.jpg
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Did you catch one of these too? http://adage.com/images/bin/image/medium/jackalope2.jpg?1254258202
Gail Combs says:
December 9, 2011 at 3:30 pm
“Ruddiman hypothesis [Ruddiman, W., 2003. The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era began thousands of years ago. ”
WIIIIILLLLMAAAA!!
Tim Folkerts at12:49pm
Excellent point. There are several slight dips below in the prior positive regions.
“it could be a bit chilly this winter”
Does this mean I should avoid raising energy prices or push to increase them in hopes of reducing global warming?
It’s a tough call and I can’t decide.
Our state agencies all say raise them but I worry they may all be nuts.
Oh what to do.
To a stock market chartist:
The immediately preceding years have made a topping pattern (compare to the 1950s-60s).
The upward trendline across the lows from 1993 on has been decisively broken.
The rise in 2010 made a lower high (a failed rally).
The fall in 2011 has made a lower low (lower than three preceding lows).
I’m with the dubious on this one; it seems we’re only about half-way thru the warm half of the sine wave. No real flip till sometime in the ’20s.
Could be–some people here have asserted that CO2 actually cools the atmosphere. Since warmists are really control freaks, maybe that clutch at that straw.
The warm is turning!
The Pacific must be pretty cold too right now. In Sydney, we are getting max temps of between 3 and 8 Centigrade BELOW the average for this time of year. This is for the past two weeks, and projected for the next 10 days at least. A whole month with a maximum temperature average of 5 Centigrade below average, and I am sure we’ll be told it’s the warmest year EVAH once again!
We probably aren’t likely to go negative on an annual average basis for a while but it is reasonable that we will start seeing an increasing number of negative months but even the article title is wrong. Following the link to the data, I see negative November values for 1999 and 2000. But in any case for the month of November, in the past 20 years there have been only 6 negative Novembers. In the 20 years previous to that they were all negative.
” As Oceans & Seas salinity was increasing day by day by dumping concentrates back by the DESALTERS, INTERNATIONAL DESALINATION ASSOCIATION ( IDA ) instructed Heavy Duty Desalination Designers & Operaters to include ZERO DISHARGE SYSTEMS ( ZDS ). This is because of my voices to Internet media, but printed media not mentioned
So Air conditioning of Mother EARTH IS WELL PROGRESSING BY CAPTURING CONC: DEICERS FROM HEAVY DUTY DESALTERS. Welcome to visit Sarva Kala Vallabhan Group & AIR CONDITIONING OF MOTHER EARTH & COMMENT”
matt v. says:
December 9, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Joe /Anthony
> You may want to check your records again about who really wrote the original article ,AMO, THE KEY GLOBAL CLIMATE INDICATOR back in July 2009
You can include URLs here. http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/toc_2009_07.html led me to http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/14/the-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-not-quite-cool-yet/
I agree with the others who have suggested that it is too early to say that the AMO has turned negative and that what we are seeing this month (and may be for the mext few months) is nothing more than a temporary dip in what is still part of a positive cycle..
If the AMO has truly turned negative then the present positive cycle seems extremely short and it would be interesting to ascertain why it turned out to be so short.
Strictly catch and release.
Ummm….looking at that graph it seems to have gone sharply down like this a lot of times and sharply up a lot of times too without climate changes of any note.
Wake me up when you get something exciting.
Cheers
Peter
My bones are too old and brittle to go back to the 70s. Block heaters, battery blankets, burst pipes, engines left running in fear of re-start risk. Doh! GK
Jer0me says:
December 9, 2011 at 4:48 pm
The Pacific must be pretty cold too right now…
You are right – sea surface temperatures are more than 1 °C cooler than normal over most of the equatorial Pacific east of 160°W. But around Northern Australia they are relatively warm.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sst_monthly.gif
In November the area-averaged Australian maximum temperature was close to normal, with an anomaly of −0.08 °C (29th coolest of 62 years).
However the BOM national outlook December 2011 to February 2012 shows the following:
• Southeastern Australia more likely to have warmer days.
• Northern tropics and southern WA more likely to have warmer days and nights.
• Southeastern Queensland, northeastern NSW and central Australia more likely to have cooler days:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/temps_ahead.shtml
Long way to go yet but the BOM models haven’t started too well:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/weather/sydneys-coldest-start-to-summer-in-50-years-20111205-1oe0i.html
Funny also how Weatherzone’s outlook in above article differ to that of the BOM:
“Mr Fisher also said summer would be cooler than average because of the influence of the La Nina weather cycle, which brings with it greater chance of clouds, rain and humidity.”
Whereas the BOM say:
“A persistently warm Indian Ocean is the main driver behind this outlook, cool conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean associated with the La Niña are also contributing.”
A bit of a stable following? Or is the BOM sticking with their horse with an saver bet on the outsider?
On a related topic, has anyone else noticed that the midwest is unusually cold now? The cool air reached New Orleans several days ago and temperatures there are in the range usually experienced no earlier than the last week of December. Looks like the winter of 76-77.
In the years to come, I will be eager to learn how Global Warming is leading to global cooling.
perhaps using a low-pass filter
http://i1195.photobucket.com/albums/aa391/MAFILI/th_mean4.png
I saw some CO2 molecules pumping iron and watching Terminator. They are determined to defeat the AMO.
Another was trying to ring Al Gore but the phone kept ringing out.
It really annoys the heck out of me to know that I won’t be around to see what the climate does in the last half of this century…curse our short human lifespans!