UAH Global Temperature Update for October 2011: +0.11 deg. C
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for October, 2011 dropped , to +0.11 deg. C (click on the image for the full-size version):
The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Here are this year’s monthly stats:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.114 +0.169 +0.059 -0.056
The Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, and tropics have all cooled substantially, consistent with the onset of another La Nina, with the tropics now back below the 1981-2010 average.
[Since AMSR-E failed in early October, there will be no more sea surface temperature updates from that instrument.]
For those tracking the daily AMSU 5 data at the Discover website, the temperature free-fall continues so I predict November will see another substantial drop in global temperatures (click for large version):
WHAT MIGHT THIS MEAN FOR CLIMATE CHANGE?
…taking a line from our IPCC brethren… While any single month’s drop in global temperatures cannot be blamed on climate change, it is still the kind of behavior we expect to see more often in a cooling world.
Dr. Spencer, have you (or anyone else) ever plotted a CuSum of the satellite temperature anomaly?
Janet Rocha says:
November 4, 2011 at 7:46 am
Here in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. We have had an abnormally cold spring with temperatures some 10 degrees below normal .I have noticed that each of the last 3 springs have been colder and colder with winter temperatures and rain now extending into November.
Interesting, because I could say exactly the same thing about here in Perth, Western Australia. Although here near the coast its more like 5C lower daytime temps. 10C lower would be occuring further inland.
It’s clear the PDO has turned and we can look forward years of cooler, wetter springs.
Let me break in here with a “different” take on the oscillations and chart from UAH.
We “know” that this chart represents ‘world-wide” values for temperature, based on continuous bands of surveyed data from Arctic to Antarctic; therefore, regardless of ANY previous or future ‘proxies” of ANY method over ANY time frame (trees, dendroclimatology, corals, ice, resins, fossils, pollen, written records, cats, mice or frog legs) EVERY past and future world-wide surveys of the ANY temperature-dependent world-wide temperature proxies MUST include this measured, irregular but known oscillation.
Therefore, let me modestly propose what should be called “Alabama’s Approximate Law of Temperature Proxies”
1. Temperatures have been measured on a worldwide basis to irregularly oscillate about a global mean by +0.2 degrees and – 0.2 degrees on a two to four year basis.
2. NO global temperature proxy in ANY given year (or over ANY given time frame of ANY study) can produce results more accurate than this 0.4 degree year-to-year worldwide oscillation.
DirkH says:
November 3, 2011 at 2:28 pm
G. Karst says:
November 3, 2011 at 12:27 pm
“IF catastrophic cooling were to become the prime perceived threat. What would the best mitigation method be, to warm the earth? How could we best force AGW? Just pondering… is all. ”
Don’t try CO2. It might actually cool the Earth (very slightly, says Nasif Nahle; I don’t have the slightest clue whether he’s right, but his argument is interesting).
http://www.biocab.org/Mean_Free_Path.pdf
Very interesting and important paper, thanks! Has this work by Nasif Nahle been the subject of a post here recently?
WUWT search returned:
.
Nasir Nahle is listed as an important signatory:
This paper and Nasir Nahle deserve a thread onto themselves. Thanks DirkH! GK
Gail Combs says:
November 4, 2011 at 12:21 am
It has almost been four years and we see a spike in Sun Spot numbers as would be expected. The SIDC number is about 130, NOAA X 0.6 = about 120. http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/images/lay_monthly.png
Not sure if you are still around Gail but there is some confusion in your statement brought about by the positioning of the Y axis. You are reading the F10.7 flux values which are about double of the sunspot numbers. I have reversed the order of the Y axis to hopefully avoid this problem in the future.
Keith says:
November 3, 2011 at 4:56 pm
Sorry about the late response Keith. I do some weird shift-work hours.
I say it will rise 0.2C because of trends. Here is the latest AMSU..
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
There is a pronounced up tick already.
Regards the current SSTs. Yes you are correct in that this years La Nina is NOT accompanied by strong trade winds (as last years La Nina was) meaning the cool upwelling waters of the Eastern Pacific are not being pushed in a westerly direction.
I think a lot of the cool Antarctic waters are getting through the Drake passage into the South Atlantic which is showing much cooler waters than last year.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gif
As for prolonged anomolous low SSTs, we won’t know that until after half way through January at which time the key Nino 3.4 SSTs should be down to just short of -1.5degC but will it linger there until next July or swing back up towards El Nino conditions is anybodys guess.
I hazard a guess that we will see neutral to weak El Nino in early 2012 followed by another La Nina.
The solar cycle is still in it’s ascending phase. The really strong La Ninas will happen in a few years when the cycle goes into it’s descending phase.
These are just my worthless laymans opinions with no scientific data to back them up. A bit like a farmers gut feeling about weather. (I am a hobby farmer by the way)
“The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.”
Then why leave it on there?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/03/uah-global-temperature-down-over-half-in-october-from-september/#comment-789396
“Then why leave it on there?”
To be misleading. That would be the short answer.
See posts 786831, 786991, 787016, 787058, 787104, 787121, 787181, 787373, and 787437 as examples of being misled.
Or running with the ball, after having it handed off by Dr. Spencer, as being just “for entertainment purposes only.”
I was surely entertained, by the replies to Dr. Spencer’s post
Also note my earlier post where I asked the same basic question.
Note also, that of Excel’s first 6 polynomial fits, the 3rd order fit just happens to be the only fit to show a downslope at the end of the UAH time series.
Maybe it was just chance that Dr. Spencer happened to choose a 3rd order polynomial, I mean it’s just so difficult to just flip through Excal’s various curve fitting options.
@Dinostratus says:
November 6, 2011 at 5:30 am
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Perhaps so that people can draw their own conclusion as to whether it might have any relevance
Gneiss says:
November 3, 2011 at 6:33 pm
Think about it a bit longer, it will come to you…