Paul L. Vaughan, M.Sc. – October 2011
This post has no introduction, per the author’s request, start with the graphs. A PDF of a more complete paper is linked at the end. – Anthony
Motivation
One purpose of this article is to direct the attention of sensible observers to a serious oversight in the mainstream quest for understanding of multidecadal solar-terrestrial relations (section I).
Another is to ask the community to start thinking carefully about what can be learned from rotating multivariate lunisolar spatiotemporal phase relations shared by Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) and terrestrial climate records, while seizing the same opportunity to highlight critical omissions in “classic” works on alleged solar-barycentric terrestrial influences (section II).
These data exploration notes are volunteered in support of ongoing publicly collaborative multidisciplinary research.
Audience
The diverse audiences addressed might not be the ones preferred by some readers. Addressing rotates priority across a spectrum of functional numeracy & orientation.
Format
Volunteer time & resources are limited, so presentation is skeletal & informal.
Conclusion
The majority of recent multidecadal terrestrial variability is due to natural spatiotemporal aliasing of differential solar pulse-position by terrestrial topology over basic terrestrial cycles including the year.
It’s not the deviation of solar cycle frequency from average solar cycle frequency that’s of practical significance from a terrestrial perspective. Earth, the receiver, has no clock locked to the average solar cycle length, so the pulse-position modulation is differential.
These observations depend on neither the success nor failure of CERN’s CLOUD experiment.
Details
Vaughan, P.L. (2011). Shifting Sun-Earth-Moon Harmonies, Beats, & Biases.
Vaughn Sun-Earth-Moon Harmonies Beats Biases (1MB 25pp PDF)
Best Regards to All,
Paul L. Vaughan, M.Sc.
Credit: Climatology animations have been assembled using JRA-25 Atlas [ http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/jra/atlas/eng/atlas-tope.htm ] images. JRA-25 long-term reanalysis is a collaboration of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) & Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI).
AnimPolarWind200hPa
http://i52.tinypic.com/cuqyt.png
AnimWind200hPa
http://i52.tinypic.com/zoamog.png
AnimWindZonal
http://i51.tinypic.com/34xouhx.png
AnimMSLP
http://i54.tinypic.com/swg11c.png
AnimVerticalVelocity
http://i54.tinypic.com/2ch4x28.png
AnimOmega700hPa
http://i53.tinypic.com/28tvqt1.png
AnimHeating
http://i55.tinypic.com/317jchy.png
AnimWaterVaporFlux_
(column integrated water vapor flux with their convergence)
http://i51.tinypic.com/126fc77.png
AnimWind850hPa_
http://i52.tinypic.com/nlo3dw.png
AnimPolarWind850hPa
http://i54.tinypic.com/29vlc0x.png
Anim2mT
http://i55.tinypic.com/dr75s7.png
AnimPrecipitableWater
http://i52.tinypic.com/9r3pt2.png
AnimCloudLow
http://i52.tinypic.com/auw1s0.png
AnimWind550K
http://i56.tinypic.com/14t0kns.png
AnimNetSurfSolRad
http://i53.tinypic.com/2r5pw9k.png
AnimNetSurfHeatFlux
http://oi54.tinypic.com/334teyt.jpg
AnimTempZonal
http://i56.tinypic.com/1441k5d.png
Regards.
I couldn’t find the precise paper that TonyB sent me a long time ago, but here’s one that’s worth a read that uses morlet waves and Chandler cycle to understand how variations in the lunar orbit affect tides and climate.
http://www.klimarealistene.com/web-content/Bibliografi/Yndestad2006Lunar%20nodal%20cycles%20Arctic.pdf
The various data sets all identify wavelet cycles of about 6, 18, 55, and 74 years driven by variations in earth and lunar orbits, and do so via a variety of methods from a variety of locations. The terminology is strikingly similar to what Paul Vaughn uses, and my read of his article suggests he is talking about the same or a closely related topic.
Paul ~ a simple “yes” or “no” response to the above would help immensely.
Putting all snipes and jokes aside, having read the paper and tried to understand it to the best of my ability, the below analogy is the best I can think of at this time to reduce Paul Vaughans paper to a level that I can understand. (High school drop-out level)
ANALOGY:
Take a tray of say 2ft by 1ft dimension. Fill it to an inch with water. Now holding the tray in both hands, start swirling the water in a smooth uniform pattern. Pretty soon the sloshing of the water will settle to a smooth swirling motion.
Now place a few heavy objects of different sizes and shapes at the bottom of the tray (continents). Re-commence the swirling action. The patterns of motions of the water will be different due to the placement of the heavy objects, but none the less will again settle into a smooth swirling motion.
In the above analogy, our arms provide the power that cause the swirling motion in the tray.
Now replace the tray with Earth, replace our arms with the Moon and the Sun, add the complexity of an atmosphere and a spheroid tray, describe it all with complex physics and you have Paul Vaughans (what I accept to be) excellent paper.
Paul,
I’ve been looking at those animations you’ve posted here but they raise a question. One sees patterns as the animations loop – but do these animations reflect annual changes seen year after year, or are they simply animations of cycles occurring over the course of a single year? I would definitely find the former far more significant.
Leif Svalgaard says:
October 15, 2011 at 2:34 pm
rotating multivariate lunisolar spatiotemporal phase relations
mumbo-jumbo
Biorhythms Leif Biorhythms.
And some of it even rectal linear.
savethesharks says:
October 15, 2011 at 7:29 pm
As long as Leif calls it “mumbo jumbo”….I am constrained to listen to the mumbo jumbo even harder [and try to understand it].
As far as I can tell [and it is hard because of the obtuse jargon-laden language] there is nothing new in any of this. Just old stuff dressed up to look impressive, but the dressing has the opposite effect. The trick is to present findings in understandable language. Richard Feynman was the master of this.There is a standard to emulate.
AR
AR
AR OM
AS 1 PSE for clarification K K
I really like the graphs. They’re purty.
Paul Vaughn
The diverse audiences addressed might not be the ones preferred by some readers. Addressing rotates priority across a spectrum of functional numeracy & orientation.>>>
and from the pdf
In layman’s terms:
It was right in front of their noses, but no one thought to bring the microscope into focus.
Sounds ridiculously silly, yes, but this is literally analogous to what happened.>>>
and
Disbelief, denial, ignorance, &/or mistrust of the sheer simplicity of what was overlooked
may continue to be the dominating mainstream reaction>>>
and
those
lacking deep conceptual understanding of the role of aggregation criteria in summaries
of spatiotemporal pattern may never possess sufficiently lucid cognizance of the
potential to misinterpret spatial phase reversals as temporal evolution.>>>
Sorry Paul, but as they say on this blog from time to time… FAIL!
You’ve presented a bunch of multi-syllable words with no reference frame, graphs with no explanation of the variables or the data shown, cryptic references to how simple it all is, and anyone who doesn’t understand must be stupid? As Leif said, I see new here! Whatever it is you are trying to spark as discussion, you can’t get there by writing an article with nothing but jargon and undefined variables and the excuse that you don’t have the time to produce a proper explanation. If it was simple it wouldn’t sound like a made up bunch of terms, and if it is complex then it needs explanations of the math, definitions of the variables, the methodology, and so on.
Pick one.
But don’t invite participation and then suggest anyone who doesn’t understand is suffering genetic cranial sub-development resulting in methodologically insufficient cognizance capacity coupled with impaired linguistic processing functions that preclude high functioning comprehension.
You can just call me stupid. Less words, straight to the point.
Robert Morris says: “…Incomprehensible dissertation is incomprehensible…”
Robert, I shall have to report you immediately to the Department of Redundancy Department.
And I thought I was a loon for applying kludged together target motion analysis techniques on noise artifacts in a tremor signal for a volcano.
It doesn’t make me less the loon, but I feel better about myself now.
Robert, I shall have to report you immediately to the Department of Redundancy Department.>>>
They seem very slow to correct redundancies. I’ve been complaining about the use of “AC Current” for decades. I asked what sense it made to call it “Alternating Current Current” and they responded that is was in the que right after DC Current (Direct Current Current).
Jeez fellas, its an internet meme! Along the lines of obvious troll is obvious.
davidmhoffer says:
October 15, 2011 at 10:07 pm
I suppose we could correctly refer to them as A Current and D Current, but then we’d be confusing them with ‘a current’ and ‘the current’.
I’m guessing this is the current consensus.
Paul,
Thanks for the refresher on the annual solar declinational effects, I have been leaving out of my hypothesis on Lunar declinational tides and solar wind interactions with the planets as a method of forecasting the weather based on four repeats of the inner planet harmonics. The use of the entire 179.2 year pattern would show the evolution of the phase transitions as they merge with the outer planet tidal, gravitational and electromagnetic effects of the interactions between all of the bodies of the solar system. Currently I need to derive algorithms for the interfering effects of the outer planets Synod conjunctions to eliminate false positives for precipitations from past cycles of outer planet Synod conjunctions not repeated this cycle, and their concurrent warmer temperature surges.
What you have outlined here is the culmination of your many years of consideration of these interactions in augment to the SSB hypothesis put forth by others, in an attempt to leave your insights in full view of the knowing after you shuffle out of these mortal coils. I have set up my web site in the same vain but the language is much more layman oriented and step by step connections between what many others have added to piecing together the puzzle that is Science. Paul’s post with the animated annual links is the 96th post captured onto my site of similar glimpses into the connected insights of others, and a couple by myself on how this all comes together, there are still some gaps and pieces missing from the puzzle but I keep putting them in the box as I find them.
http://research.aerology.com/natural-processes/solar-system-dynamics/
Much more of the direct work on discovering the SSB interactions with climate can also be found
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/category/climate/
tallbloke’s workshop where open minds and new ideas are kicked around daily on the road to;
http://research.aerology.com/natural-processes/science-post-cagw/
There has been some progress in prediction of long range weather based on the repeating patterns of the solar/lunar 27.32 day solar magnetic rotation being synched to the declinational movement of the Moon, and hence the atmospheric tides responsible for the meridional flow surges seen in global circulation patterns, many past researchers.
http://research.aerology.com/supporting-research/leroux-marcel-lunar-declinational-tides/
http://research.aerology.com/supporting-research/atmospheric-tides/
27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tide LI GuoQing1† & ZONG HaiFeng
What Paul has done here is to show the distilled essence of his many years of work and the opinion of others as precisely as he can. My self I ramble a lot repeating things multiple times as I work out the bugs with each reiteration. Language is a tool to be used for best effect, flamboyance is a distraction like foam on a beer.
As I was reading through the paper, I kept thinking to myself that this is what Piers Corbyn does (lunisolar). Sure enough, up pops Piers name.
I do get what Paul is doing: identifying all the frequencies that exist on Earth and in the Solar System as a whole. How they act on the various bodies orbital wobbles and then spin motion.
One of the important things treated is Length of Day (LOD). Giving a link (if it holds up) between changes in the LOD to orbital resonances, wobbles, etc. Then from LOD to ocean cycles.
Needs more reading time.
Would be better to sort out if presented as a multi-part series. Start out at the Solar System orbital level and proceed on down the ladder.
I also think a little explanation would be in order.
This appears to be a serious paper which a number of people commenting on here can understand. It may be right or mistaken, but deserves careful study, which is what I intend to do.
From the comments it may tie in with a subject which I am currently researching, which on face value is far away from climate.
However, if the sun, moon, planets and stars do really have profound impacts, then there may well be strong causal relationships.
And – NO. I am not studying astrology, but the nature of the cycles that so obviously occur in financial markets.
There’s plenty in that paper. It needs to be more sequential and presented in parts (series).
From orbital resonances/wobbles to LOD (length of day) /spin to ocean cycles to ….
This article just published looks at natural variability:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818111001457
There is so much here and presented in a fashion that is hard to follow. I suspect that I might make something out of it if I followed all the leads and dug into it very carefully but I also suspect that my laziness will preclude that outcome. It may be, as some have noted, that it has all been shown before but I don’t think it has all been fully explained anywhere yet. This attempt may turn out to be at least a partial explanation.
One example of this limited explanation is the Chandler Period (roughly a 14 month wobble in the earth’s pole position). I worked at an Observatory in Japan that was part of the ILO (International Latitude Observatory) network of world wide observatories that were started in the late 1800’s after Chandler discovered this phenomenon. Over a long period of time they had been watching latitude shifts as indicated by a mostly sinusoidal movement (about 14 month period) of zenith stars. The wobble is generally a circular rotation of the pole that is several meters in diameter. In the 1970s and 80s when I was on site at the Mizusawa Japan Observatory, this small cadre of worldwide scientists were trying to discover the reason for this wobble and were looking at a wide variety of geophysical drivers. Ocean and atmospheric tides and circulation. Movement of the earth’s magma. Lunar-earth tidal effects on both the earth and ocean. Short term rotation rates noted in the length of day (LOD) were considered. And so on. A few years ago I read that a JPL scientist had discovered the “cause” of the wobble as a pressure variation in the bottom of the Pacific ocean basin. I am not sure that really helps explain it to me very much. My question then becomes where did THAT variation come from? Another interesting fact is that there has also been a connection between the Chandler period and polar tidal activity.
Personally, I have noted a 60 year temperature cycle in New Mexico surface temperature data over about 120 years that seems to be related to the PDO. Both the Chandler period and this 60 year cycle are “real” in that they require no special filters or other mathematical manipulation to observe the cycles. The data simply shows them. I understand the reluctance of some folks in putting much faith in some of these cycles but until someone fully explains what really is causing the clearly observed PDO cycles as well as some of these other obvious natural cycles, I don’t think it is wise to simply ignore them. In my opinion, more power to those who honestly try to connect and clarify them.
Bernie
Let’s not be too quick to poke fun. It’s not that long ago that the solar experts were instantly dismissive of any significant impact of solar activity on climate————and then along came UV.
I suggest a period of quiet reflection might be needed before complete rejection of the work, I am not well enough informed to decide whether the work is valid or not and from the number and speed of the responses, nor are most of the commenters.
Congratulations Anthony for bringing this work to a wide audience, I hope that there are enough commenters who able to judge its worth – if any- and possibly translate the implications for people like me.
“””Paul Vaughan says:
October 15, 2011 at 8:10 pm
Credit: Climatology animations have been assembled using JRA-25 Atlas [ http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/jra/atlas/eng/atlas-tope.htm ] images. JRA-25 long-term reanalysis is a collaboration of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) & Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI).””””
WOW! Now I see a glimmer of light! Many thanks.
Just spent half an hour looking at global cloud cover 🙂
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/jra/atlas/eng/indexe_surface14.htm
I think we need to cut Paul some slack.
He isn’t suggesting we change the basis of the world’s energy NOW and hugely increasing energy costs.
He isn’t an advocate from WorldWildliesFund or Greenpiss or Fiends of the Earth.
His prospects of putting the bread on the table and keeping a nice, comfortable job with an index-linked pension by publishing this here look pretty thin.
Some of the most intelligent commenters on WUWT are (at least) reserving judgement.
Yes, it isn’t very ‘user friendly’. No, I can’t understand much of it.
Maybe it is genius, maybe garbage.
But as a very basic hypothesis, it is at least worth considering whether “Shifting Sun-Earth-Moon Harmonies, Beats, & Biases” have a major effect on climate. I’m sure as hell that anthropogenic CO2 emissions don’t!
Lucy Skywalker says:
October 15, 2011 at 4:20 pm
It’s like the Rosetta Stone. No doubt Paul this work is the key to the hieroglyphics of climate science. I am very sure that the heavenly cycles correlate with climate on Earth, modulated by the inertia of the oceans and landmasses. I trust Courtillot. But we still need some help in understanding and I’m sure you’d find that if you did this, help would return to you vis-a-vis the lack of time/funds you state.
After several posts with helpful clues my interest certainly piqued. My knowledge doesn’t go any further than effects of the Moon on tides around the globe and a bit about the ancient cycles such as the Maya and the Hindu, the latter already having calculated these to even trillions of years, while the Mayan leaving them hanging.
I checked all the acronyms here and they do all figure. The differentials (rates of change) are easy to miss eg LOD’ vis-a-vis LOD (Length Of Day), Paul, wouldn’t a delta sign be more familiar?
Oh no, please, no. No more deltas nor acronymns even spelled out without simple English explanation of what they represent.. 🙂
..what is he saying, Lucy?
What is it they didn’t see?