Uh oh, when you’ve lost the Guardian, you can be pretty sure you’ve lost middle America.
…
The claim that we are “painting more dots on the dice”, causing weather events that simply could not have occurred in the absence of human influence on climate, is just plain wrong. Given the paucity of reliable records and bias in climate models, it is quite impossible to say whether an observed event could have happened in a hypothetical pristine climate. Our research focuses on quantifying how risks have changed, which is a much easier proposition, although addressing all the uncertainties still makes working out these “relative risks” a painstaking affair.
Enthusiasm for doing anything about climate change seems to have given way to resignation that we will simply have to adapt. For the foreseeable future, this overwhelmingly means dealing with harmful weather events that have been made more likely by human influence on climate. What we can’t say right now is which these events are, and therefore who is being harmed and how much.
full story here
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There’s that darned uncertainty thing again.
Al is washed up and irrelevant… he just hasn’t figured it out yet..
Is this a bonus Friday Funny?
Science was pretty damaged by the Climategate thing, and Gore kicks it when it is down!
Nice to see the “uncertainty thing” mentioned though.
Wow, such a comment from an AGW proponent must be unsettling to the “Science Is Settled” crowd.
So this twit is upset Gore stated what his paper suggested.
I’ll do him one better…..This moron is doing a disservice to science even more so than Gore. Gore is easily ignored with this idiot writes gibberish.
From the paper……….
“They found that greenhouse gas emissions had actually reduced the risk of such a flood: understandably, since springtime floods in the UK tend to result from melting snow, and thanks to greenhouse warming there is now less snow around.”
http://suyts.wordpress.com/2011/06/01/the-rapidly-melting-snow-extent/
http://suyts.wordpress.com/2011/06/11/too-much-blathering-about-snow-loss/
We don’t have less snow.
This made me laugh. According to the Telegraph: “Italy struggled to roll over debt on Thursday, paying 4.68pc for €3.1bn of three-year debt, up 81 basis points from last month. Rome announced plans to sell €30bn of state assets, mostly property. It may include €10bn of CO2 emission rights – a form of debt reshuffling to gain time.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8797958/German-bailout-vote-is-too-little-too-late.html
And this is how the Australian Government is treating sceptic submissions to the Joint Select Committee on Australia’s Clean Energy Future Legislation: http://blogs.news.com.au/couriermail/andrewbolt/index.php/couriermail/comments/a_government_committee_to_discover_you_love_this_tax/
Hey! This is MY meme! Don’t sully it with your answers to my unquestions! You’re not a model! You can’t be so certain! (/sarc FGM)
“When Al Gore said last week that scientists now have “clear proof that climate change is directly responsible for the extreme and devastating floods, storms and droughts that displaced millions of people this year,” my heart sank. ”
Who will believe me now? For God’s sake he should leave people like me to say that!
I wonder what our mainstream media will find to sensationalize when CO2 global warming finally dies a well-deserved death?
If someone prominent praises Gore’s work, especially a so-called climate scientist, be sure to send this article to them.
Gore may open new and unimagined territory in the art of self-destruction.
There was a lot that went unsaid in Obama’s press conference yesterday. Energy was a topic, but not one mention of climate change. Republicans appear to have turned their back on it. Democrats don’t seem to be far behind. I suspect we’re seeing a sea change. Is there something that will be public knowledge soon?
The Guardian better be careful or George Soros will stop propping them up financially.
I love how he said “there is now less snow around”. I think he’s been desperately ignoring the last few winters, not looking out his windows or at any weather reports. I don’t blame him; no doubt his world would be shattered if he discovered yet another dire AGW prediction that is refusing to pan out…
Actually Al Gore has already crossed his tipping point with Tipper.
Streetcred,
I made a submission to the Joint Select Committee on Australia’s Clean Energy Future Legislation. It was properly addressed, and covered seven points including the lack of moral authority to introduce the tax when Ms Gillard had clearly said, “There will be no carbon tax under the government I lead”.
My submission was reclassified as correspondence and rejected, while the following was accepted and published on the JSCACEFL’s website, “To whom it may concern, I am writing to express my support for the Government to legislate to put a price on Carbon.I urge the government to continue to move ahead with the Carbon tax.”
No joke.
Dear Dear Anthony your influence expands. From a comment on the article
And how long before a selective quote appears on WattsUpWithThat?
Funny yes !!!
@ Jesse says: October 7, 2011 at 9:11 pm I wonder what our mainstream media will find to sensationalize when CO2 global warming finally dies a well-deserved death?
Ocean acidification.
I’m thinkin’ the guys at Heathrow didn’t read this clown’s paper! Otherwise they’d be scrapping their snowplough fleet instead of tripling it!
charles nelson says:
October 7, 2011 at 9:24 pm
The Guardian better be careful or George Soros will stop propping them up financially.
Charles, George seems to be having some problems of his own right now. The led:
Soros Is Found Guilty in France On Charges of Insider Trading
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/21/business/soros-is-found-guilty-in-france-on-charges-of-insider-trading.html
Jesse says: (October 7, 2011 at 9:11 pm) “I wonder what our mainstream media will find to sensationalize when CO2 global warming finally dies a well-deserved death?”
When I was about six years old, Jesse, c. 1943, I asked my grandfather (after another hushed evening sitting around the old radio): “What will they have have for news when the war is over?”
They found stuff…
The Guardian disappoints. – gavin.
I’m starting to think that the Australian Labor Party is a figment of George Orwell’s worst nightmare come to life…. The things they do to the English language in order to distort or manipulate the truth, is right out of ‘1984’….. and the direction that they want this country to follow! Utter madness. They are completely out of control. They possess no grasp on reality, no understanding of the wealth of history that has preceded them…. They will not listen and they do not care.
They wreak havoc on this society……. and they won’t even print our submissions of concern.
“Enthusiasm for doing anything about climate change seems to have given way to resignation that we will simply have to adapt.”
Terrible sounding thing, this having to adapt.. Does he mean like say…the way we’ve adapted for thousands of years? As a species, survived ice ages? Spread from Africa to Europe, Asia, Australia and the Americas? Built thriving communities in the mountains, jungles, deserts, and the arctic? Adapt like that? Yeah…. we’re not very good at that, scary adapt thing are we?
Of course we managed all that before technology made us lazy. We conquered fire and not much more and that enabled us to adapt all over the planet, scum of the earth, that’s what we are, just adapting willy nilly to every climate type the earth has or has had for a million years or so. Suddenly we’re faced with “simply having to adapt” like its some sort of big deal?
Pfffft! First we had fire. Now we’ve got something better. We’ve got CONCENTRATED FIRE. We no longer adapt to our environment, we adapt our environment to us. River in the way? Divert it. Swamp where we want to build houses? Drain it. Too dry where we want to grow food? Irrigate it. Too cold? Greenhouse. Not enough CO2? Fill Greenhouse with CO2. Too warm? Air conditioning. Not enough snow to ski? Artificial snow. Food grows a long ways from where people need it? Long haul trucks with reefer units. Flooding is a threat? Build dams and control the water flow. There are only two things that prevent us from adapting pretty much anything on the planet to the way we would like it to be. One is an ROI case. No return on investment, no sense doing it. (Which doesn’t stop these dysfunctional things called gruberments, oops, I mean governments from doing it anyway…. but I digress). The second is ourselves. We can drain any swamp, dam any river, or punch a road through the the mountain we just levelled if we want. Sometimes we decide that saving the last 100 members of the four toed white tailed lurching marmoset is more important that the road, but that’s us limiting ourselves, not anything else.
And what is this magic CONCENTRATED FIRE that enables all this?
Oil.
Tax the bujeezuz out of the oil, and THEN we’ve got a problem adapting.
There is “bias in climate models”! No surely not. Can a fully-paid up member of the AGW alarmist crowd say that?
erfiebob says:
October 7, 2011 at 9:25 pm
How can Gore make an objective statement like that when he walks around in the middle of the Gore Effect (lots of miserable rainy/snowy weather wherever he goes–even in the middle of summer). Of course, it could be the weather gods are not pleased when some mere mortal blames other mere mortals for the weather–they (the weather gods) are justifiably jealous their turf is being stepped on–maybe that’s why they’ve cursed Gore with his bad weather bubble.
Funny thing is, had Myles written the same concepts in a comment to a Guardian article (“Comment is free”), his text would’ve likely been removed from view …
If there are more dots on the dice how come ManBearPig keeps throwing snake eyes?
As for the Grauniad; I guess, on the law of averages, they’re going to get a story right sometimes.
For the foreseeable future, this overwhelmingly means dealing with harmful weather events that have been made more likely by human influence on climate. What we can’t say right now is which these events are, and therefore who is being harmed and how much.
If you can’t say which weather events are cased by (A)GW, its an unwarranted assumption to say that any are occuring.
Unfortunately, I read these kinds of statements all the time in climate science papers.
Somehow, it seems as if CO2 is assumed to be the culprit to cause devastation without the warming since warming has stopped since 1998. I am well aware of the reasoning behind presumed ocean level rise due to warming. But it is a total mystery to me why CO2 alone should have any huge effect on changing the climate. In the absence of warming, how did CO2 alone cause frosts in Florida last winter; how does CO2 alone cause ocean levels to rise; how does CO2 alone cause hurricanes to be more severe, etc?
“Enthusiasm for doing anything about climate change seems to have given way to resignation that we will simply have to adapt. For the foreseeable future, this overwhelmingly means dealing with harmful weather events that have been made more likely by human influence on climate. What we can’t say right now is which these events are, and therefore who is being harmed and how much”.
This is typical, Guardian waffle; factually incorrect and grammatically poor. To paraphrase Basil in Fawlty Towers: “Myles Allen,specialist subject; stating the bleeding obvious.”
I wouldn’t hold out too much hope for the Guardian just yet – not while they still have George Monbiot, and not while they continue to publish BS like this from Naomi Klein: “The fight against climate change is down to us – the 99%”. They have a l-o-n-g way to go yet.
Doesn’t the recent events, the
Gore-Bore-athon and now the Mann-athon suggest that these people know themselves that the writing is on the wall?Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin.
So the Grauniad is throwing poor old Gore to the wolves. (Well the ‘old’ part is fairly close.)
The SPPI web site has an article reporting extreme weather events through history. Severe flooding in the UK, where records still exist back 2000 years by the rare literate monk, was nearly an annual event with food shortages due to bad weather somewhere on the islands every year or so. I am glad I live now.
So gore’s version of history is complete rubbish.
but it is frustrating when Gore claims to know the answer before we have even asked the question.
Proof that Gore is an Oracle!
There was a comic piece in the UK Daily Telegraph by Geoffrey Lean last weekend on the same lines of “its weather not climate”. He told us how the hot weather that weekend wasn’t a proof of global warming, but that wouldn’t stop the deniers claimimg that the next cold spell was proof that it didn’t exist. The warmists seem to be recogising that it has stopped warming, so they need to adapt their message.
Jesse says:
October 7, 2011 at 9:11 pm
“I wonder what our mainstream media will find to sensationalize when CO2 global warming finally dies a well-deserved death?”
It will have to be something that could be fixed by stealing a small sum from a lot of people, putting the cash in a special bin. One would need a selected few to guard this bin. In order to guard it, these people will have to be very, very important, and they will ned a big powerfull support-organisation.
You may call this bin the “budget”, and the organisation might be called a “State”. What the problem to be solved is, doesnt really matter. The people you steal the money from doesnt care anymore, as long as they are allowed to keep a small sum for themselves. Noone wants to arose anger in the big organisation. Because they will be called criminals, and put into special places.
My guess on what the new new “problem” would be is….hmmmm…. Soot.
Is this the same Myles Allen who co-founded ClimatePrediction.net which produced predictions of temperatures rising by 11degrees C by the end of this Century? And was criticised by Real Climate for being alarmist!
Is this the same man who spoke to a UK parliamentery select committee about the state of climate modelling software and moaned about a critic of the software as not being a qualified person? However that critic’s CV showed otherwise.
Is this the same person who participated in an award winning BBC “documentary” and found later that the software they were distributing had a bug in it and they were force to stop the experiment?
Do I really care what any of these people say?
The new danger is indoor airborne particulate emissions from domestic fuel combustion. More people die from that than malaria – but like malaria victims, they are poor, have bad haircuts and often aren’t cute.
Anyone good at math will have concluded that black carbon (BC) is extremely good at heating the air and is found absolutely all over the place (and elevations). If it were properly credited, and its warming effect subtracted from the total, there is not much left to be assigned to CO2.
Thus as CO2 turns out to be a damp squib, blaming solid ‘C’ (BC) is a short term possibility, a target of convenience that at least has a ‘C’ in it. Might buy some time to adapt (the message).
Too bad of course they don’t target brainless politicians and murderous regimes as ‘risks to humanity’ (instead of convenient tools of hegemonic and geopolitical struggle).
Great comment from davidmhoffer. That’s the sort of fighting talk I’m 100% behind.
For the foreseeable future, this overwhelmingly means dealing with harmful weather events that have been made more likely by human influence on climate. What we can’t say right now is which these events are, and therefore who is being harmed and how much.
Actually, we don’t even know if the effect of Man on this planet is to cause more or less extreme weather events. Once upon a time the conventional wisdom said that a warmer earth had less extreme weather than a cooler one. Given that there has been no statistically-significant rise in extreme weather events in the last 100-odd years, the only “overwhelming” thing we should be dealing with is Big Government.
Steeptown says:
October 7, 2011 at 11:31 pm
There is “bias in climate models”! No surely not. Can a fully-paid up member of the AGW alarmist crowd say that?
———————-
No, but a full member of the Union of Concerned Scientists can.
Tell ’em Kenji.
Every government in Oregon is chanting the same things as Gore
Here is a small piece from one local county’s fall newsletter.
http://bit.ly/qjym5R
Emerging impacts
Climate change threatens to create or exacerbate a long list
of concerns, recently summarized by the Oregon Climate
Change Research Institute at OSU:
• Drier, hotter summers and reduced snowpack —
resulting in decreased summer water supply for drinking
and irrigation
• Larger wildfire risks
• Warmer waters — unfriendly to salmon and more likely
to experience algal blooms
• A longer growing season — but water may be
increasingly scarce, and we may have to confront new
invasive plants and insects
• Species may go extinct — as they struggle to adapt or
move
• Flooding events may increase
• Increased CO2 absorption — acidifies the ocean and
estuaries further, making waters more corrosive to
shellfish, coral, and other species
• Possible population influx — climate change impacts in
the Southwest and South could be more severe than here
Looks like the members of the CAGW choir are beginning to sing off different pages of the hymnal. It’s getting a little dischordant.
Anyone notice how fewer of the Guardians climate change reports are allowing readers comments these days? Not so long ago they were getting hundred sof comments per article when AGW alarmism was at its strongest and they thought they were going to Save The Planet. Now, with evidence stacking up that AGW is probably the largest fraud in human history they seem to have gone all shy on freedom of speech.
Dave, UK says:
October 8, 2011 at 5:50 am
“…. Given that there has been no statistically-significant rise in extreme weather events in the last 100-odd years, the only “overwhelming” thing we should be dealing with is Big Government.”
_____________________________________________________
I will second that Dave.
The reality is thanks to Oil, Coal and “EVIL” Co2 we have more to eat, more clothes, better homes, and more leisure than any time in history.
The ONLY reason more people are not benefiting from this is because of BIG Government and the sociopaths propped-up by the UN/Financiers with the support of first world governments
Heck if we would just get the heck out of the way the third world would be better off. This is a letter posted on Yahoo Finance groups received from a farmer in Kenya who is working to save Zebu cattle.
“…Don’t even start me with the USDA. They work in the world under united states urgency for international development, and they are the biggest dumpers of dangerous foods…..
Yes we have allot of Government interference but the biggest thread to our survival is the Billion of American tax money and any other rich countries sending to Africa for poverty eradication…..
The government and big malty national cooperation’s are our number one enemy.In my village the large Sugar industry is killing us. first they asked people to clear the forests to grow sugar cane , sugar cane takes two years to harvest, but because of corruption it takes up to seven years sometimes if you do not pay kick back they will never come to harvest your sugar cane,and even if they cut after seven years they deduct so much fees that most small scale farmers wind up owing them money.
The worst thing they did is that they coursed so much land degradation of small farmers by using too much nitrogen phosphate chemical fertilizers and over relying on just one crop without rotation.This has created the top soil to be so acidic and since the villagers cleared the trees to make room for sugar cane crops there is nothing to prevent top soil from getting washed into the rivers then on to lake Victoria.Please google the effect of nitrogen phosphate into Lake Victoria and you can see the damage to the lake. All the river streams flowing into the Lake are carrying so much soil and Chemical fertilizers in such a way that in a few years there will be no Lake Victoria.Here is what new york Times write about What Heifer International , and Land O lake is doing to Africa and the world it is a shame.Heifer international Animals dies within three months of their arival to Africa …” http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Americans_Against_NAIS/message/23082
One gets so sick and tired of all the lies designed to separate us from our wealth. Thanks to the internet the truth is slowly leaking out.
“For the foreseeable future, this overwhelmingly means dealing with harmful weather events that have been made more likely by human influence on climate.”
That’s the CAGW bias right there: the weather effects are always harmful. I’m not sure the wheat farmers of Canada would agree, but they don’t count. Very few of them went to Harvard or equivalent.
Werner;
Even the oceans aren’t cooperating. In the last year they rose downward.
______
I wonder if Mr. Allen, scientist extraordinaire, would explain to all how warming the poles relative to the tropics, and hence reducing the energy gradients and fluxes, generates stronger weather events. Sounds like he has a problem with the Conservation of Energy thing.
The entirety of this paragraph is ridiculous. If he can write the last sentence, then he cannot also write the first two with a straight face. If he cannot be specific about which events are being caused by anything, he does not know enough about what he is talking about to claim ANYTHING.
It sounds like the guy has had his fill of warming and Gore, and is trying to withdraw without pissing off his former allies.
Myles: Take it from Judith Curry – it can’t be done. You are either fer ’em or agin’ ’em. It is time to get off the bloody fence. (no pun intended…) If you see where they are going wrong, then admit it: They ARE wrong.
Quite amusing that Myles Allen is trying to row back on this. He has been very prominent in pushing the idea that human impact is causing extreme weather:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v432/n7017/full/nature03089.html
“Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%)9 that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude.”
He has a lot of history, but as Gore starts to be ridiculed, it seems he wants out. However, these papers are from a selection referenced on his own web page:
http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/people/allenmyles.php
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v421/n6926/full/421891a.html
“Will it ever be possible to sue anyone for damaging the climate?”
“As I write this article in January 2003, the flood waters of the River Thames are about 30 centimetres from my kitchen door and slowly rising. On the radio, a representative of the UK Met Office has just explained that although this is the kind of phenomenon that global warming might make more frequent, it is impossible to attribute this particular event (floods in southern England) to past emissions of greenhouse gases.”
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v470/n7334/full/nature09762.html
“Here we present a multi-step, physically based ‘probabilistic event attribution’ framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing11, 12, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred.
The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.”
And of course we have his pronouncements on a Carbon Budget:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v458/n7242/full/nature08019.html
“Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO2), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 deg C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5–95% confidence interval of 1.3–3.9 deg C”
What was Noah’s carbon footprint?
Climate is something a politician just doesn’t have time for so they pick on weather which suites their time-frame so much better.
We all know these AGW guys are in the greatest cash-grab in history but I am reminded of an old joke that explains the rush to settle the science.
Scene: Back of a car after a first date.
Guy: Baby, I’m sorry. If I had known you were a virgin, I would have taken my time.
Girl: If I knew you had any time, I would have taken off my pantyhose.
They need a new hockeystick that gets rid of storms and droughts before 1850.
First and foremost al gore is a politician. As well, he dropped out of divinity school and then law school…Why would anyone think this man is a scientist? He is not, he is a fraud on world scale.
makes me sick that Al Gore has made so much money on this fear mongering.