NOAA’s Space weather prediction center released their solar cycle progression updates, and it shows one of the largest jumps for all common solar metrics since cycle 24 began.
Of course we know that the sunspot number has jumped significantly partly due to the recent large sunspot group that released X-class flares, but there’s more than that.
Big gains were seen in 10.7 CM radio flux as well as the Ap geomagnetic index.
As always, be sure to check the WUWT solar reference page for the latest information.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/solar/
UPDATE: Here’s the daily SSN’s from SIDC
20110901 2011.666 85 59 26
20110902 2011.669 88 72 16
20110903 2011.672 91 71 20
20110904 2011.674 68 48 20
20110905 2011.677 74 53 21
20110906 2011.680 58 38 20
20110907 2011.682 47 31 16
20110908 2011.685 35 27 8
20110909 2011.688 47 28 19
20110910 2011.691 52 33 19
20110911 2011.693 61 37 24
20110912 2011.696 90 53 37
20110913 2011.699 94 54 40
20110914 2011.702 110 64 46
20110915 2011.704 124 89 35
20110916 2011.707 124 86 38
20110917 2011.710 104 73 31
20110918 2011.713 93 79 14
20110919 2011.715 92 78 14
20110920 2011.718 80 68 12
20110921 2011.721 70 61 9
20110922 2011.724 71 56 15
20110923 2011.726 59 59 0
20110924 2011.729 75 68 7
20110925 2011.732 79 69 10
20110926 2011.734 73 73 0
20110927 2011.737 67 67 0
20110928 2011.740 71 71 0
20110929 2011.743 83 83 0
20110930 2011.745 75 75 0
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There remains to be exceptionally low sunspot activity on the Southern hemisphere of Sol.
Another observation: it is right now 11 years since the maximum sunspot spike during the last cycle, SC23.
We are now entering into the period of observations that will yield enormously important data for understanding Sol.
When the temperatures continue to fall, the democratically elected Governments will be forced back to finding ways to provide cheap energy. That will put the nail in the coffin of the wind farms, the solar panels and all of the scams (Solyndra) that are out there soaking up hundreds of millions of dollars that represent our hard work and toil. The basic disconnect between every individuals hard work and toil and these failed “green energy” ideas will be deleted when it really gets cold. When reality sinks in that our planet is getting colder, survival instinct will be the mechanism for ending the last thirty years of madness.
Jim Cripwell:
When I “Ask’ed” ‘Livingston & Penn’, a link came up to a SC24 discussion board (which an earlier post-er has cut & pasted; this might have the most current data available.
http://www.solarcycle24.com.proboards/index
if I got it right.
Hope that helps,
Mark H.
Not a dumb question, but reveals the layman’s ignorance that the Sun rotates on its axis approximately* every 27 days. So no need to wait 6 months, just 2 weeks. :-]
* The Sun is not solid, so parts of it rotate at slightly different speeds.
Here in the UK our buffoon ‘energy and climate minister’ has told a meeting that we must not exploit a huge newly discovered shale gas field because it would jepardise our EU carbon reduction treaty…MADNESS!!
To M.A.Vukcevic. Thanks for the info. However, how to we access data from L&P on a routine basis? Is there a URL where we can go to get the latest info, as there is for just about any other solar data?
Jim Cripwell says:
If you email Dr.S. you may get the data; occasionally he puts up a link active just for a few days.
Southern hemisphere has been noticeably weaker though!!
Just remember, the measurement becomes most variable at the peaks. It may be peaking.
matt says:
October 5, 2011 at 8:11 am
Why are the graphs labled ‘jan’ if they are for september output?
The graphs are labeled September but the axis is labeled from Jan 00 (2000) to Jan19(2019)
We can always check on hits to climate blogs/sites. I’ll bet there already down on ALL pro and con AGW/climate sites (maybe ask Anthony to provide data comparing all sites with say, same of a year ago). Interest in these sort of issues nearly always fade away, especially when there is nothing on note happening with the weather etc .
Hang on a minute
REPLY: The period of rotation for the sun is 27 days – Anthony
I never knew this. I always thought the sun had a ‘push’ on us. watts m2
i think you call it.
but if we get pinged every 27 days by a big spot, what about a harmonic effect ?
Saved from the Grim Reaper’s scythe just in the nick of time. Take your rest now. This weak cycle will crest before we all know it then back to the long slide down the razor blade.
@M.A.Vukcevic says:
October 5, 2011 at 3:55 am
…..Not to mention your Sun´s electrocardiogram :
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
Brad says:
October 5, 2011 at 8:26 am
REPLY: …The issue of overinflation of the SSN due to counting specks is an issue we’ve addressed many times. Be as upset as you wish. – Anthony
Actually, SIDC is undercounting the SSN. And specks must be counted too, so say the rules. I’m at Mendoza [Argentina] right now [ http://iaus286.iafe.uba.ar/ ]. Here is my talk on SSNs: http://www.leif.org/research/How%20Well%20Do%20We%20Know%20the%20Sunspot%20Number.pdf
The undercounting is discussed here: http://www.leif.org/research/SIDC-Seminar-14Sept.pdf
But Leif, what about that time you and I got into that argument with SIDC over the month without sunspots? I thought your position then was that they were overcounting. – Anthony
Anthony Watts says:
October 5, 2011 at 4:13 pm
But Leif, what about that time you and I got into that argument with SIDC over the month without sunspots? I thought your position then was that they were overcounting. – Anthony
That was an isolated incident, which they corrected. The have been overcounting by some 12% since about 2000. They know it and we will eventually fix it when the ‘agreed upon and vetted’ sunspot number emerges from our Workshop #2 in May 2012.
The SSN since 1945 has been overcounted by some 20%. This is not due to counting specks but just the opposite: counted big spots more than once [up to five times for a very big one]. This is explained in: http://www.leif.org/research/SSN-Workshop1-Weighting.pdf
Leif Svalgaard says:
October 5, 2011 at 4:29 pm
That was an isolated incident, which they corrected. The have been overcounting by some 12% since about 2000.
They have been undercounting by some 12% relative to the SSN they counted before [and relative to everybody else]. This is different from the overcounting that Waldmeier introduced ~1945.
M.A.Vukcevic says:
October 5, 2011 at 4:35 am
The World Government fires a nuke into moribund sun to keep Global Warming going.
Desperation has no limits
Very funny!
BTW: Now let´s wait for the “Watts Effect”……. 🙂
It´s a “robust” correlation.
What if we are watching N.H. maximum and the S.H. maximum will wait until December 2012? 🙂
Mr. Alex says:
October 5, 2011 at 10:29 am
Southern hemisphere has been noticeably weaker though!!
Another way to look at this would be that the Southern Hemisphere is late to the dance. You can also consider the dual behavior of light – i.e. – contructive and destructive waves vs particle (300,000 km/sec).
The Solar Max, in this case, would be determined by how out-of-phase the waves (Sunspot bands of the Hemispheres) are. If such were true, then the Northern and Southern Sunspot bands are of different frequecies of thier cycles. If not true, then whatever causes these failures is not readily apparent. SC22 and SC23 pulled apart in peaks, but neither hemisphere failed. Now it gets really interesting.
Jim Cripwell says:
October 5, 2011 at 9:15 am
However, how to we access data from L&P on a routine basis? Is there a URL where we can go to get the latest info, as there is for just about any other solar data?
The plot on my website is always up to date. In fact just got September data from Bill Livingston:
http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png
Since we are losing the small spots the widening distribution [of which we can’t see the bottom] is pulling the average up a bit.
20110930 2011.745 75 75 0
What does those numbers mean.? 75 75 0?
Daniel Vogler says:
October 5, 2011 at 11:15 pm
20110930 2011.745 75 75 0
What does those numbers mean.? 75 75 0?
SSN for whole disk, SSN for Northern half of disk, SSN for Southern half of disk.
While the Titanic sank, at a certain moment the prow (front) rose upwards sharply. Those near the prow might have thought to themselves – “hey – we’re going up, maybe all this stuff about the ship sinking isn’t settled science after all. Look how fast we’re moving up!”