NOAA’s Space weather prediction center released their solar cycle progression updates, and it shows one of the largest jumps for all common solar metrics since cycle 24 began.
Of course we know that the sunspot number has jumped significantly partly due to the recent large sunspot group that released X-class flares, but there’s more than that.
Big gains were seen in 10.7 CM radio flux as well as the Ap geomagnetic index.
As always, be sure to check the WUWT solar reference page for the latest information.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/solar/
UPDATE: Here’s the daily SSN’s from SIDC
20110901 2011.666 85 59 26
20110902 2011.669 88 72 16
20110903 2011.672 91 71 20
20110904 2011.674 68 48 20
20110905 2011.677 74 53 21
20110906 2011.680 58 38 20
20110907 2011.682 47 31 16
20110908 2011.685 35 27 8
20110909 2011.688 47 28 19
20110910 2011.691 52 33 19
20110911 2011.693 61 37 24
20110912 2011.696 90 53 37
20110913 2011.699 94 54 40
20110914 2011.702 110 64 46
20110915 2011.704 124 89 35
20110916 2011.707 124 86 38
20110917 2011.710 104 73 31
20110918 2011.713 93 79 14
20110919 2011.715 92 78 14
20110920 2011.718 80 68 12
20110921 2011.721 70 61 9
20110922 2011.724 71 56 15
20110923 2011.726 59 59 0
20110924 2011.729 75 68 7
20110925 2011.732 79 69 10
20110926 2011.734 73 73 0
20110927 2011.737 67 67 0
20110928 2011.740 71 71 0
20110929 2011.743 83 83 0
20110930 2011.745 75 75 0
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Ironic but me thinks that there is now so little interest in climate change aka global warming that the only interested people left are a few die-hard deniers and believers. There is some evidence of this at Lucia site (with Josh’s cartoons Monckton etc).. LOL. I would predict a pretty big fall in readership at ALL climate sites this year.
If the increased activity continues for a number of months it will be interesting to see whether the AO returns to a more positive mode with more poleward air circulation after the very negative state that coincided with the very low level of solar activity.
Against that, the current cooling trend in the oceans is not going to give the air circulation systems much of a poleward push.
Still, we are already seeing a tendency for a stronger high pressure cell over Western Europe pushing the jets up between Scotland and Iceland.
Of course this could be the actual ‘Peak’ of 24?
Will this change the cold winter forecast?
charles nelson says:
October 5, 2011 at 3:26 am
Of course this could be the actual ‘Peak’ of 24?
This is not beyond the realms of possibility. The position of sunspot groups would generally be closer to the solar equator if solar max was near but we may be on a plateau that will stay flat towards solar max. Records are not conclusive during SC5 but the GSN value shows an early rise which faded to nothing. This cycle still has many options.
http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24.png
This graph puts things into perspective.
http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24_19.png
The cold forecast for the NH winter is still firmly in place.
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/224
This sunspot number prediction from 8 years ago is doing fine:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7a.htm
@Andrew says:
October 5, 2011 at 3:13 am
//////////////////////////////////////////////////
I am not sure that the conclusion you draw is correct. Green taxes are only just beginning to bite, and the public are just waking up to the cost in their pocket of all these green incentive schemes. As these costs dig ever deeper in to their pocket, an increasing number of people will question whether the expense is justified. When seeking to ascertain whether the expense is justified more people are likely to come accross climate related web sites, and hence web traffic may not die down. In fact, quite the contrary may occur; if the number of people who are sceptical of this green energy nonsense increases, it may be that web traffic will increase as they bring themselves up to speed.
charles nelson says:
October 5, 2011 at 3:26 am
Of course this could be the actual ‘Peak’ of 24?
It certainly could. It could also be the beginning of the ‘mesa’ of SC24, very similar to other weak cycles.
The southern belt of sunspots has fallen way behind.
The World Government fires a nuke into moribund sun to keep Global Warming going.
Desperation has no limits.
rbateman says:
October 5, 2011 at 4:02 am
The southern belt of sunspots has fallen way behind.
Good. I’m not the only one. I haven’t heard any discussion about it.
Hoser says: (in Tips & Notes)
August 30, 2011 at 10:12 am
I think I’m seeing the northern hemisphere of the sun progressing at a different rate through the solar cycle compared with the southern hemisphere. Maybe Leif S has noticed that too (or not).
…
Also, SC23 persisted it appears mainly due to the slow progression of the SH.
…
Can the two hemispheres progress in an uncoordinated manner? It looks like SC20 was a little asymmetrical. Could the NH go into SC25 before the SH? That would be weird.
Regardless, what goes up can come down. On the other hand, this spike might keep Hathaway from publishing yet another prediction. Oops, wrong (I just checked). http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
Wholly Human Sacrifice Batman! Maybe the Mayans were right after all.
12/21/2012, WERE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Andrew says:
October 5, 2011 at 3:13 am
*****
Unfortunately, the politicians haven’t given up on global warming yet. They are still pushing Draconian measures to “stop global warming.”
So Leif Svalgaard’s ‘welcome to solar max was a little premature?
How does this latest data tie into Penn & Livingston’s work ? Is their hypothesis still in tact?
I am projecting that the solar activity will take a tumble after mid December and last about 2.5 months before it starts to rise again,
One large sunspot actually does not increase the sunspot number, the increase was largely (solely?) because of the large number of smaller sunspot groups present earlier in the month.
REPLY: It pays to read: “…the sunspot number has jumped significantly due to the recent large sunspot group…“. Note the key word, “group”. – Anthony
@Andrew: ‘so little interest in climate change aka global warming that the only interested people left are a few die-hard deniers and believers’
I don’t know where you’re from but here in the Uk we are facing gigantic ‘investments’ in the consequences of the agw scam, viz. £150bn or so over the next few years for worse than useless ‘renewable’ energy in the form of windmills, plus carbon taxes for electricity, gas etc.; die-hard, sadly, will be a word that applies to the many poor people who will die this winter from what the government calls ‘fuel poverty’, brought on by their own insane energy policies and their need to reward their already well-heeled chums and supporters. Sure we’re interested.
Once again could I put in a plea for current data from Livingston and Penn. Just about all the other data we get comes from taxpayer funded organizations. L&P are different. They compete for time on the telescope they use, and they are the only ones who get the data. It is not public data, so far as I can tell.
Nervertheless. it is not clear to me whether SC 24 is “normal” in the sense of the extent that sunspot number correlates with, for example, flare activity. It would be nice to have up to date information on the magnetic strength of the sunspots. Any suggestions?
Jeff L & Jim Cripwell
lsvalgaard
Sept 25, 2011, 9:35am
Bill just had an observing run. I was with him. Give him a few days to reduce the data.
Why are the graphs labled ‘jan’ if they are for september output?
So that’s why 10 (and 11) meters have been hopping lately …
.
http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24_19.png
Geoff Sharp’s comparison image is most interesting, putting SC24 into good perspective.
Most interesting of months.
“If you can’t predict accurately, predict frequently” (Anon Weather Forecaster)
Previous NASA predictions below:
March 23, 2008: predicted peak: 130-140 range
January 5, 2009: predicted peak: 100-110 range
May 29, 2009: predicted peak: 80-90 range
October 5, 2010: predicted peak 60-70
January 3, 2011: predicted peak 59
October 4, 2011 eyeballing graph it looks to be about peak of 90.
Well they do have it “bracketed”.
How does this unexpected surge in activity conform to the previously Solar Conveyor Belt theory which was predicting continued inactivity?
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/02mar_spotlesssun/
Is it possible that brilliant computer modeling developed by solar scientists’ be wrong?
Or perhaps is it that we have much more to learn about Mother Sol?
It helps to know what you are talking about. A large group does not have a significant effect on the sunspot number alone, it will have a large effect on the average sunspot area particualrly in a period when most spots are small (such as now).
Go to your own solar page and look at the average areas, flux, and area on the linked sites for the month. You need to understand the basic relation between those three parameters.
You could also write Leif, he will agree with me.
REPLY: Oh please. Lots of griping over semantics there Brad, and the use of the word “group” which you missed the first time, (you also missed “…but there’s more than that”) but your M.O. here has been all about griping about petty things. [yawn] But I’ve added the word “partly” to satisfy the whining. I’m simply saying that the SSN of the group had a significant effect too, it was the big news of the month, and note that the last time we had daily SSN’s over 100 was March 8th, 2011. Yes there were lots of sunspecks too, some of them not worth counting, and certainly not visible when Wolf and others were doing SSN count work with equipment of the period. The issue of overinflation of the SSN due to counting specks is an issue we’ve addressed many times. Be as upset as you wish. – Anthony
Possibly a dumb question from a layman. If the sunspots have an immediate effect on us, is there any mileage on getting a look at the far side, to see what is coming down the pipe in 6-12 months time
REPLY: The period of rotation for the sun is 27 days – Anthony