“What was different about this year was that the temperatures were low enough to generate ozone-depleting forms of chlorine for a much longer period of time.” And it is worth noting that the “unprecedented” only applies to the short satellite record. There were no measurements of any kind prior to about 1979.
From the University of Toronto and NASA JPL
Unprecedented Arctic ozone loss occurred last winter
U of Toronto physicists play key role in international study
A NASA-led study has documented an unprecedented depletion of the Earth’s protective ozone layer above the Arctic last winter and spring that was caused by an unusually prolonged period of extremely low temperatures in the stratosphere. University of Toronto physicist Kaley Walker was part of the international team behind the study to be published online Sunday, October 2 in Nature.
The researchers found the amount of ozone destroyed in the Arctic in 2011 was comparable to that seen in some years in the Antarctic, where an ozone “hole” has formed each spring since the mid 1980s. The stratospheric ozone layer, extending from about 15 to 35 kilometres above the surface, protects life on Earth from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays.
The scientists found that at some altitudes, the cold period in the Arctic lasted more than 30 days longer in 2011 than in any previously studied Arctic winter, leading to the unprecedented ozone loss. Further studies are needed to determine what factors caused the cold period to last so long.
The Antarctic ozone hole forms when extremely cold conditions, common in the winter Antarctic stratosphere, trigger reactions that convert atmospheric chlorine from human-produced chemicals into forms that destroy ozone. While the same ozone-loss processes occur each winter in the Arctic, the generally warmer stratospheric conditions there limit the area affected and the time frame during which the chemical reactions occur. This means there is generally far less ozone loss in most years in the Arctic than in the Antarctic.
To investigate the 2011 Arctic ozone loss, Walker and scientists from 18 other institutions in nine countries (United States, Germany, The Netherlands, Russia, Finland, Denmark, Japan and Spain) analyzed a comprehensive set of measurements. These included daily global observations of trace gases and clouds from NASA’s Aura and CALIPSO spacecraft; ozone measured by instrumented balloons; meteorological data and atmospheric models. The University of Toronto team contributed to the balloon-borne data with measurements from Eureka, Nunavut, located at 80 ºN (1,100 km from the North Pole). The team was participating in a Canadian Space Agency-funded project making springtime measurements to verify the performance of a Canadian satellite called the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE).
“In the 2010-11 Arctic winter, we did not have temperatures that were lower than in the previous cold Arctic winters,” said Walker. “What was different about this year was that the temperatures were low enough to generate ozone-depleting forms of chlorine for a much longer period of time. Arctic ozone loss events such as those observed this year could become more frequent if winter Arctic stratospheric temperatures decrease in future as the Earth’s climate changes.
The 2011 Arctic ozone loss occurred over an area considerably smaller than that of the Antarctic ozone holes. This is because the Arctic polar vortex, a persistent large-scale cyclone within which the ozone loss takes place, was about 40 percent smaller than a typical Antarctic vortex. While smaller and shorter-lived than its Antarctic counterpart, the Arctic polar vortex is more mobile, often moving over densely-populated northern regions. Decreases in overhead ozone lead to increases in surface ultraviolet radiation, which are known to have adverse effects on humans and other life forms.
Although the total amount of Arctic ozone measured was much more than twice that typically seen in an Antarctic spring, the amount destroyed was comparable to that in some previous Antarctic ozone holes. This is because ozone levels at the beginning of Arctic winter are typically much greater than those at the beginning of Antarctic winter.
The scientists noted that without the 1989 Montreal Protocol, an international treaty limiting production of ozone-depleting substances, chlorine levels already would be so high that an Arctic ozone hole would form every spring. The long atmospheric lifetimes of ozone-depleting chemicals already in the atmosphere mean that Antarctic ozone holes, and the possibility of future severe Arctic ozone loss, will continue for decades.
“Each of the balloon and satellite measurements included in this study were absolutely necessary to understand the ozone depletion we observed this past winter,” Walker said. “To be able to predict future Arctic ozone loss reliably in a changing climate, it is crucial that we maintain our atmospheric measurement capabilities.”
From NASA JPL:
October 02, 2011
PASADENA, Calif. – A NASA-led study has documented an unprecedented depletion of Earth’s protective ozone layer above the Arctic last winter and spring caused by an unusually prolonged period of extremely low temperatures in the stratosphere.
The study, published online Sunday, Oct. 2, in the journal Nature, finds the amount of ozone destroyed in the Arctic in 2011 was comparable to that seen in some years in the Antarctic, where an ozone “hole” has formed each spring since the mid-1980s. The stratospheric ozone layer, extending from about 10 to 20 miles (15 to 35 kilometers) above the surface, protects life on Earth from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays.
The Antarctic ozone hole forms when extremely cold conditions, common in the winter Antarctic stratosphere, trigger reactions that convert atmospheric chlorine from human-produced chemicals into forms that destroy ozone. The same ozone-loss processes occur each winter in the Arctic. However, the generally warmer stratospheric conditions there limit the area affected and the time frame during which the chemical reactions occur, resulting in far less ozone loss in most years in the Arctic than in the Antarctic.
To investigate the 2011 Arctic ozone loss, scientists from 19 institutions in nine countries (United States, Germany, The Netherlands, Canada, Russia, Finland, Denmark, Japan and Spain) analyzed a comprehensive set of measurements. These included daily global observations of trace gases and clouds from NASA’s Aura and CALIPSO spacecraft; ozone measured by instrumented balloons; meteorological data and atmospheric models. The scientists found that at some altitudes, the cold period in the Arctic lasted more than 30 days longer in 2011 than in any previously studied Arctic winter, leading to the unprecedented ozone loss. Further studies are needed to determine what factors caused the cold period to last so long.
“Day-to-day temperatures in the 2010-11 Arctic winter did not reach lower values than in previous cold Arctic winters,” said lead author Gloria Manney of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro. “The difference from previous winters is that temperatures were low enough to produce ozone-destroying forms of chlorine for a much longer time. This implies that if winter Arctic stratospheric temperatures drop just slightly in the future, for example as a result of climate change, then severe Arctic ozone loss may occur more frequently.”
The 2011 Arctic ozone loss occurred over an area considerably smaller than that of the Antarctic ozone holes. This is because the Arctic polar vortex, a persistent large-scale cyclone within which the ozone loss takes place, was about 40 percent smaller than a typical Antarctic vortex. While smaller and shorter-lived than its Antarctic counterpart, the Arctic polar vortex is more mobile, often moving over densely populated northern regions. Decreases in overhead ozone lead to increases in surface ultraviolet radiation, which are known to have adverse effects on humans and other life forms.
Although the total amount of Arctic ozone measured was much more than twice that typically seen in an Antarctic spring, the amount destroyed was comparable to that in some previous Antarctic ozone holes. This is because ozone levels at the beginning of Arctic winter are typically much greater than those at the beginning of Antarctic winter.
Manney said that without the 1989 Montreal Protocol, an international treaty limiting production of ozone-depleting substances, chlorine levels already would be so high that an Arctic ozone hole would form every spring. The long atmospheric lifetimes of ozone-depleting chemicals already in the atmosphere mean that Antarctic ozone holes, and the possibility of future severe Arctic ozone loss, will continue for decades.
“Our ability to quantify polar ozone loss and associated processes will be reduced in the future when NASA’s Aura and CALIPSO spacecraft, whose trace gas and cloud measurements were central to this study, reach the end of their operational lifetimes,” Manney said. “It is imperative that this capability be maintained if we are to reliably predict future ozone loss in a changing climate.”
Other institutions participating in the study included Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany; NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Va.; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Greenbelt, Md., and Hampton, Va.; Science and Technology Corporation, Lanham, Md.; Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Central Aerological Observatory, Russia; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colo.; Arctic Research Center, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland; Danish Climate Center, Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark; Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands; Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan; National Institute for Aerospace Technology, Spain; and University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
For more information on NASA’s Aura mission, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/aura . For more information on NASA’s CALIPSO mission, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/calipso .
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Here is a link for the common CFC concentrations over time:
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/new_atmCFC.html.
It shows that the new unprecedented arctic ozone hole occurred as CFC’s have dropped about 5% since 1998.
So the observation does not provide evidence that CFCs cause the decline. Once again its models all the way down.
I’m still waiting for the MSM to pick up on this in the same way they would if a tobacco or oil industry scientist had said something similar about their science.
Most of the measurements we have come from the south polar regions historically. Only recently has the north polar ozone “hole” been “discovered” and the storytellers been able to worry about sunburned polar bears. Probably Jimmy was citing this “spring” which is really “autumn” in Antarctica.
Jimmy the Dalek says
“For those who think that the ozone “hole” (better called an ozone “dip” but I guess we are stuck with the less accurate name) is formed in winter due to the lack of sunlight – wrong, it is formed in spring when the sunlight return to polar regions.”
————————————————————-
Epic fail
Down here in OZ we are usually ritually subjected to the mandatory scary “ozone hole” story in the last two weeks of September (yes – in “Spring”) but the actual readings refer to measurements taken in June, July and August, which is WINTER**.
The “holes in the ozone” are a natural phenomena in each hemisphere’s winter. The concept was first postulated on by Professor Gordon Dobson in the early Fifties, on the basis that if there was no sunlight, there should be NO O3. However Dobson believed in the existence of high atmospheric air currents which he called “jetstreams”. His theory was that if he could show the existence of O3 at the poles at the end of winter, and plot the “shape” of the depletion, he could begin to map his “jestream” air currents.
To this end he invented the “Dobson Spectrophotometer” and the “Dobson Unit”, both of which are still in use today for measuring O3 density. In 1957 – declared “International Geophysical Year” by the UN – Professor Dobson was part of the British Meteorological Team that went to Antarctica.
Using his equipment he measured the extent, rate , and “shape” of ozone depletion – or more correctly – its replenishment, over Antarctica, thereby establishing the existence and general direction of the jetstream air currents. For his work he was named “International Geophysical Man of the Year” (sorry ladies, but that is what it was called).
He co-authored a book about it – “Exploring the Atmosphere” – which was one of my Physics textbooks in senior high school in the late 60’s.
Unfortunately, with the need to change history to accommodate the “CFC’s are destroying the ozone layer” scam of the Eighties, Professor Gordon Dobson and his ground-breaking work on jetstream currents has all-but largely been “disappeared”.
———————————————–
**Strangely, to date anyway, there has been no scary “ozone hole over Antarctica” down here in OZ for this year, and it is now about two weeks late. I cannot help but wonder if the sudden appearance of this NH “ozone hole” bogus story above, referring to something that happened six months ago, is in some way connected to the absence of our annual scare downunder.
doesnt ozone form when oxygen is warmed enough? doesnt the UV in sunlight accomplish that in the ionosphere? isnt there much less sunlight at a very bad angle over the poles in winter?
seems to me ozone SHOULD thin out in winter over the poles?
memoryvault says:
October 3, 2011 at 5:16 pm
I thought that the northern ozonizers might be in cahoots with the down-under ones. But how do they communicate? They have to be careful of email since Climategate. Using personal couriers like al Qaeda? Maybe encryption, like “the wet bird never flies in ozone”? Short wave radio, mayhaps? Godfather-type veiled threats?
Or is it just consensus-thinking inside the box?
The area under the hole gets no sunlight and hence no UV rays in the winter anyway.
Its hard to get a sunburn when the Sun is below or just above the horizon.
Memoryvault: “epic fail” indeed…
Try looking at the actual data http://www.theozonehole.com/2011.htm When is the peak loss?
Just_The_Facts : somewhat obviously, Spring in Antarctica refers to August/September
Really? Back to the mythical “ozone hole”?
There is nothing “mythical” about the hole. Those of us who live in NZ know it is real.
Come down here in summer and I can show you in an hour. That’s how long it will take to put you in hospital from sunburn.
The causes might be in dispute, but the reality is a major pain in the ass.
Teacher, teacher, do you think they might be related in some way?
http://www.physorg.com/news198429352.html
Jimmy:
Nice reference page. I wish someone had told me that international preservation of the ozone layer was 16 September! My birthday!
I recently, seriously, had to buy a new microwave because it was arcing, and I could smell ozone. I got a new one, but should have saved the old one. I could have run it outside till it caught fire. Could have replenished some of the lost ozone.
Could anybody get together with me and we could set up an ozone-exchange trading company? We could trade credits for purchasing high-voltage motors and such, or apply for UN grants to make giant high-voltage ozone generators that point upward, like huge crackling van de Graaff generators.
jimmi_the_dalek says: October 3, 2011 at 6:01 pm
Just_The_Facts : somewhat obviously, Spring in Antarctica refers to August/September
If so obvious, please provide scientific references to support your assertion, as I provided three that dispute it…
Mooloo:
I live on Sanibel Island FL in the winter. You get sunburned in 15 minutes there, and we are in the low latitudes/
Let me get this straight—the ozone “hole” occurs in NZ mid-winter. You go sunbathing then? I thought there was record snow and cold there this year. Are you in a polar-bear club? OOps! No polar bears. Penguin club?
Jimmi the Dalek says
Thanks Jimmi, for posting a link to some lovely graphs clearly depicting the start of the “ozone hole” from the beginning of July – around the equinox (you know, when the sun is crossing the equator heading northwards – AWAY from Antarctica), and peaking at the end of September, or the winter solstice in the SH, when the sun is at its most northerly point with respect to Antarctica.
Or put more simply, thank you for providing a link clearly showing that ozone depletion occurs EXACTLY when we should expect it to – when there is no sun.
memoryvault, are you serious?
The winter solstice in Antarctica is mid June, Mid September is the Spring equinox! Look up what the words solstice and equinox actually mean please.
bubbagyro says:
October 3, 2011 at 12:01 pm
“Your facts are right, just not explanatory of why ozone is separated out of the air preferentially in the polar areas. ”
Ozone’s half-life depends on its concentration. As you compress it, its half-life decreases because the molecules react with other ozone molecules more frequently to form oxygen. In the stratosphere its half-life is very long. At the surface it is a matter of days. So ozone is produced in the stratosphere, follows the stratospheric circulation toward the poles, then descends into the troposphere in a ring around the poles, and destroys itself as it is compressed by gravity. The satellites see an area of high concentration in this polar ring simply because they are looking downward through a descending column of air containing ozone, not because the ozone is particularly more concentrated, so it is really not being separated from anything.
Just_The_Facts : use your common sense – look to see how much daylight there is at various times of the year – Antarctica is a big place, not just a little bit round the South Pole. Try this:
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/about-antarctica/fact-files/weather/sunlight-hours
erl happ says: October 3, 2011 at 5:02 pm
But a few things need to be added:
1. The erosion of ozone within the vortex (also called the Night Jet) is due to the admixture of nitrogen oxides from the mesosphere.
There appears to be support for a contribution to ozone erosion by nitrogen oxides from the thermosphere and mesosphere;
“Large amounts of nitrogen oxide are produced in the lower thermosphere through the influence of energetic precipitating particles and solar radiation. During polar night this NO is occasionally transported downward to the stratosphere where it destroys ozone and subsequently may have an influence on stratospheric and potentially tropospheric circulation.”
http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/the-atmosphere-in-the-earth-system/topis-for-master-theses-at-the-meteorological-institute-of-the-university-of-hamburg/downward-transport-of-nitrogen-oxide-in-the-middle-atmosphere-during-polar-night-diffusion-or-advection.html
Nitric oxide is an important minor constituent of the upper atmosphere that exhibits strong solar-terrestrial coupling. Nitric oxide directly affects the composition of the ionosphere, the thermal structure of the thermosphere, and may be transported downward into the mesosphere and stratosphere where it can react with ozone.
http://lasp.colorado.edu/snoe/mission/mission_overview/science_objectives.html
which I was unaware of.
However, I question the degree/percentage of the decrease in ozone that can be attributed to nitrogen oxides from the thermosphere and mesosphere. Given that there is a “water vapor hole, a nitrogen oxide hole and an ozone hole, all occurring simultaneously (Labitzke and Kunze 2005)”;
http://books.google.com/books?id=B93SSQrcAh4C&lpg=PA283&ots=d0-uBRjmyI&dq=%22water%20vapor%20hole%22%20polar%20vortex&pg=PA283#v=onepage&q=%22water%20vapor%20hole%22%20polar%20vortex&f=false
it seems likely that there would be an “ozone hole” even without the contribution of nitric oxide from the thermosphere and mesosphere. Similar to the “global warming” that occurred over the last half century, I suspect that the “ozone hole” is caused by several different natural variables, along with a possible minor contribution from man. What are your thoughts?
Jimmi the Dalek says
Yes Jimmi, you are quite right. The “ozone hole” occurs between the period when the sun is furthest northwards respect to Antarctica (June 20 solstice) or “midnight” down there, and deepens until the sun is half-way back again (September 23 equinox), or “dawn” in Antarctica.
As I said – EXACTLY when we would expect it to – when there is no sun. Even if my stroke-addled brain mixed up the terms.
Note also from your lovely graphs that “ozone depletion” will now “diminish” in both Dobson Units and area, through to the beginning of July next year, when it will be “midnight” again.
How . . . how . . . . .”cyclical”.
jimmi_the_dalek says: October 3, 2011 at 6:48 pm
look to see how much daylight there is at various times of the year – Antarctica is a big place, not just a little bit round the South Pole. Try this:
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/about-antarctica/fact-files/weather/sunlight-hours
But if you look at the early days of the “ozone hole” the largest decrease in ozone appears directly over the pole;
http://www.theozonehole.com/images/2011au5.jpg
but this is the location that is receiving the least amount of sunlight, per the source you cited:
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0015/23037/south-pole.png
Further to the above, it seems reasonable to me that with a quiet sun and less UV, the stratospheric circulation would weaken and the descending wall of ozone-containing air might move farther from the poles, i.e., bigger ozone hole. With a couple of weak solar cycles in the cards, prepare yourselves for an onslaught of ozone alarmism. Ozone destroys itself by compression and needs no help from CFCs.
I just watched the story on the news, had to be CBC because they bashed Harper for decreasing staff in the ozone watching part of Environment Caanada. “We need these watchers now more than ever because climate change is destroying the Ozone layer” We pay them 1.1 Billion for this?
Just the Facts – Early in the year someone called “Jimmi” tried to cloud the issue when I found an old explanation in the polar vortex…
abstract:
===========
Spring-ozone change in Antarctica and the role of the polar vortex
Rumen D. Bojkov
Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, Ontario, Canada
Analysis of the stratospheric temperatures and geopotential heights confirms that the spring-to-spring ozone changes closely follow the changes of the thermobaric field, and that the rapid increase of ozone (and stratospheric temperature) in the spring is dependent on the time of the polar vortex breakdown, when favorable conditions for continuous meridional exchange of ozone-rich air from the middle latitudes are re-established. The stratospheric heating rates and the weak gradient in the vortex central region during early spring provide favorable conditions for weak upward motions, responsible for a substantial part of the ozone loss between the date of the solar penetration of the stratosphere, and the date of the vortex breakdown.
Advances in Space Research, Volume 6, Issue 10, 1986, Pages 89-98
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1986AdSpR…6…89B
===========
Jimmi blamed stratospheric clouds for the 2002 Antarctic depletion anomaly when I invoked it as an explanadum, referencing a paper that didn’t once mention clouds to support his case! You can see that here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/08/new-rate-of-stratospheric-photolysis-questions-ozone-hole/#comment-570430
I notice that your mention of the 2002 anomaly has been met with silence.
I think some people need to learn how to read graphs, and also need a bit more geography.
OK .
1) definition of seasons. I am using God’s seasons not mans. So (in Southern Hemisphere) June 21 is midwinter (shortest day) and December 21 is midsummer (longest day), March 21 and September 21 are the Autumn and Spring equinoxes (night and day equal lengths). So September 21 is actually the middle of Spring, not its beginning. Spring is (roughly) August September, October, Summer is November, December, January, Autumn is February, March April and Winter is May ,June July. i.e each season is centred on its Solstice/equinox because it is the amount of light that is important. Except if you are standing right at the south pole, September 21 is not “dawn in Antarctica”. There is actually significant daylight in Antarctica from August onwards.
2) reading graphs. Look at both the area and the ozone concentration. Note that the graphs start at the beginning of August. Note that there is hardly anything happens until mid August. On the first time-shot hardly anything has happened yet so the fluctuations are small and not yet significant. Now notice that the change occurs rapidly from mid August to mid September. This is not in winter! After that ozone creation, which has been slowly increasing through that period, starts to exceed destruction and the “hole” gradually fades. And yes it is cyclic – next year something similar will happen. You want to dispute the cause? No problem, but any hypothesis has to use the observed data, which is that the effect occurs in the first half of Spring (with Spring being defined in terms of the amount of available sunlight).
Bad science. Nothing says the ozone was actually destroyed. That is an assumption on the part of the NASA scientists. The cold air over the arctic could simply have pushed the ozone out of the way and carried is somewhere else.