Update: Monday, August 22: Hurricane Irene will likely rapidly intensify at some point over the next couple days becoming a major hurricane (maximum probably Category 4). It is a large-storm with a massive wind field that will likely expand further as it moves north. Irene has the potential to be a climate weather disaster of historical proportions. A couple most recent (12z) mesoscale forecast model tracks put either Miami or South Carolina under threat of a Category 4, 5 landfall. Yet, with any 5-day forecast, the track skill is on the order of 250 mi, which could mean Irene misses land all together.
As of Saturday night, Irene is a tropical storm centered east of the Lesser Antilles. But, where will the storm be in 5-days (on Thursday)? The National Hurricane Center officially prognosticates a tropical storm in the Florida Straits as of the 11 PM AST advisory on 08.20.11. Can you do better? In the comments, feel free to pontificate about the track, intensity, and potential landfall location of Irene — and go “On the Record”. It’s okay to include image links in your comments in order to make your case.
The early Sunday morning Mesoscale model guidance show “doomcasts” of Category 5 hurricanes undergoing quite different tracks. At such an early stage of development of the storm, GFDL and HWRF are not going to be your best model to look at. That would be the best numerical weather prediction (NWP) global deterministic model run by the USA European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. Current ECMWF North Atlantic Wind Speed and MSLP forecast at my FSU-COAPS weather website. The August 21, 2011 00Z run puts a Category 2 hurricane “east” of Florida with landfall in the Carolinas in 6-days. And, for fun: binary typhoon interaction in the Western Pacific (Fujiwhara effect).
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I am unable to understand why meteorologists name every small storm that seems to occur in the Atlantic. If we did that in the north of Australia, during cyclone season, we would soon run out of names.
Only when a storm has pressure reduced to the 996mb level, do they get named as a cyclone has formed.
Oh, that’s right, Gore told them it was going to be worse than ever with increasing CO2.
What the heck…I posted this at a weather message board that I frequent. (For entertainment puposes only):
This is such an interesting time to ask about path. It could go anywhere. But, to me, it looks like it’s already turning & breaking up in the Atlantic. So, my guess is that it doesn’t hit anything.
Actually Ryan, WP.com will strip out that image embed code. The best they can do is leave a URL to the image and we can then edit and embed for them. – Anthony
[ryanm: hmmm…can u see the picture in my next comment?]
REPLY: You have author priviledges, the system allows it. Regular commenters get it stripped out last time I examined the issue. – Anthony
The MRF model predicted this storm beginning last Tuesday. That’s when Joe D’Aleo alerted me to the development which he had been expecting for several weeks. That night the MRF forecast that the eye would be near Key West by a week from today. I have been sharing this forecast with my viewers each day, showing refinements in the model forecast each evening. For the MRF maps from last night’s run, showing the storm crossing Florida from Miami to near Tampa Bay, then moving northeastward across North Florida and then along the East Coast to Atlantic City by Tuesday, August 30th. To see this model go to the Unysis website:
.http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=pres®ion=us&t=6e
You can see how I presented this long range prediction on TV at
http://www.kusi.com/weather
You might care to comment if this sort of public display of a long range computer model forecast is professionally appropriate. I noted that no one else I could find, including the Florida TV weathercasters were putting this forecast on the air. I am nerviously watching to see how well the MRF verifies.
sarc/ON
I hope this isn’t too technically worded for ya’ll, but after churning for quite some time my models are telling me this storm will wobble and waffle some before heading up the Hudson River estuary and it will maybe definitely inundate the West Side Highway of NYC, in a week or so plus or minus a few days. In doing so it will provide James Hansen with one correct prediction:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/22/a-little-known-but-failed-20-year-old-climate-change-prediction-by-dr-james-hansen/
And, it will be worse than previously thought.
sarc/OFF
Joe D’Aleo, the best long range forecaster I ever knew, has been expecting a significant hurricane to form and move up the Atlantic coast for several weeks. He alerted me that it was happening last Tuesday. That evening the MRF Model predicted the storm to reach the Key West area by a week from today.
This evening the model is on track with Joe D’Aleo’s long range outlook, showing the storm hitting Florida and then moving northward on the Atlantic coast to Atlantic City in ten days. You can see the MRF model maps on the Unysis weather website at
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=pres®ion=us&t=7e
I began sharing the MRF forecast with my TV viewers each day showing how that track would vary in detail but continue to carry the storm to Florida within ten days. This is the first time I have put such a long range prediction on the air. I checked to see if the Florida weathercasters were doing this with an online check of several of their webpages and did not find anyone else doing what I was doing. I am a little nervous about putting this model forecast on the air so many days out, but as the models improve, I think it is service to alert viewers to this possibility. You can see how I handled it on TV at
http://www.kusi.com/weather
@ur momisugly Tom Harley
It has nothing to do with Al Gore and his unscientific rhetoric. To make a broad generalization that his opinion is used to name storms is unfounded and outlandish. The truth is West Pacific minimum pressures are lower than in the Atlantic for the same wind. This is because the pressure gradient determines the wind, not the central pressure. Average pressure in the West Pacific is relatively low so you need a very low pressure there to make a strong wind. Take a look at the CI (current intensity) number used in Dvorak Analysis. For a 2.5 number, sustained winds at 35kts, you need a Atlantic minimum pressure of just 1005mb while in the West Pacific you would need a minimum pressure of 997mb. This is why we name every small storm that seems to occur in the Atlantic as you put it . So the 996mb in your area is honestly not that impressive.
Previous HWRF 08.20 18z doomcast…
Previous HWRF 08.21 00z doomcast…
Tom Harley says:
August 20, 2011 at 8:45 pm
I am unable to understand why meteorologists name every small storm that seems to occur in the Atlantic. If we did that in the north of Australia, during cyclone season, we would soon run out of names.
Only when a storm has pressure reduced to the 996mb level, do they get named as a cyclone has formed.
Oh, that’s right, Gore told them it was going to be worse than ever with increasing CO2.
=================================
Point taken. However, even if this was an “A” storm and not an “I” storm this particular animal would be significant A or I or Z for that matter.
This is a potential disaster looming…and on short notice.
It may not…and if it doesn’t…then thanks be for the beloved South Florida.
Point is it could be significant ala Ike and we in the USA are nowhere prepared for a repeat of such.
I love (LOVE) Miami. I hope they are prepared.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Off topic, but I thought I would share this gem from the comments page of the Daily Telegraph, talking about the recent attack by a Polar bear on a school expedition, and its subsequent shooting…
verybigjohn
“the expedition had gone to Spitzbergen to study the
effects of climate change…”
At least there is now real evidence that climate change has killed a polar bear.
Track seems to have swung a bit north since yesterday.
Daughter in St. Lucia reports some quite heavy showers earlier, but not much since.
Nice loop here h/t Stormcarib –
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir4.html
I always find it interesting to watch the Graphics Archive on www,nhc,noaa.gov for these storms. So Irene is at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml
The development accuracy of the forecasters is shown as each model ensemble is assessed.
If Joe D’Aleo thinks this will be significant then that’s good enough for me. You are bound to get one out of the mix.
A route south of Cuba is looking pretty unlikely, which would have led to a major hurricane heading to the gulf coast.
It’s all down to how much of PR, Hispaniola and Cuba are crossed. With the northward reformation of the centre you’d have to expect that Cuba is less in the firing line and that the spine of Hispaniola is more likely to be. If so, then a hollowed-out Irene would probably brush Florida while struggling to regain hurricane strength. A little further north and a much stronger system could threaten the Bahamas, northern Florida and the Carolinas.
I fear the latter is more likely.
Tom Harley says:
August 20, 2011 at 8:45 pm
“I am unable to understand why meteorologists name every small storm that seems to occur in the Atlantic”
Logically it is easier for the average person to associate a particular storm by name. When there are multiple storms it makes it easier to keep track of which one is where and which one will influence a particular area. Harvey has not been a threat to my area but Irene may be. That is easier than trying to remember what and where TS#8 and TS#9 are.
I am going to act on the forecast that Irene will skirt the east coast of Florida as it turns north and then pushes up towards the Carolinas. However, I will monitor it closely as there is a possibility that it may cross the Florida peninsula and come close to me. I have two plans in mind. If it stays along the east coast, I do nothing. If it looks like it is starting to make it’s way across Florida then my standard 3 day plan goes into affect.
I’ll play 🙂
Most all the models this morning here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ are trending to the right compared to previous runs and are in amazingly good agreement with the storm going up the east coast of Florida as a minimal hurricane. The exception is the GFDL which is still trending right and making Irene a Gulf hurricane. The water vapor movie at this time is showing a weak mid level trough exiting the to the right over the Atlantic, with a a ridge building up over Central Florida. The IR AVN loop at the TPC shows the small circulation still moving west with no northward component for this time loop.
My predictions are:
The storm has a very small window before it reaches Puerto Rico for it to be pulled north by the trough, if at all because there is high pressure at the surface north of the storm. If the storm goes south of the island it wont be affected much by this and will continue on a more westerly track. This could eventually make it a Gulf storm with a stronger potential for higher intensity.
If the storm gets pulled a bit North and goes over the Islands, especially Hispaniola, then the TPC intensity predictions seem high. The storm is not strong enough at this time to intensify further while interacting with the tall mountains in Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba. It would be different if this was a well organized Cape Verde storm. In that case the interaction with the islands would not play a major role in the intensity forecast.
So, if it stays South of the islands it could intensify and become a Gulf Hurricane. If it follows the TPC track and model guidance, going over the islands, it should not reach hurricane status.
Best,
J.
Because most people are weather historians or meteorologists and so they decide how active a year was based on how many letters are used. Knowing this, NOAA now names storms that would never have been named 10 years ago and never known about 40 years ago. Then the preachers of doom, such as Dr. Jeff Masters, can proclaim things are getting worse. Already Jeff Masters had a blog post proclaiming things are worse now because 3 named storms occurred quicker than any time in history. It is all about the message, not the truth.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_climo.html
Above is a map of all August hurricanes which started within two degrees of Irene. See that one that hit the gulf coast of Texas as a category 4?
I’m hoping against all odds that Irene somehow manages to push through the high pressure system that’s been parked over Texas for the 18 months and slams into us like a runaway freight train and pushes rain bands into and through south Texas and doesn’t peter out until it gets to New Mexico.
Pray with me. The drought here in Texas is just God awful with no relief in sight. Curse you La Nina! DIE DIE DIE!
John Coleman says:
August 20, 2011 at 10:39 pm
On the east coast we have enough trouble with forecasted tracks for nor’easters being off by 25-100 miles and the major differences that come from the range of solutions.
Tropical systems, with their compact wind fields, have got to provide a greater dilemma. For something like this storm, of course Floridians should be watching it nervously. It’s August, they should be spending the next 60 days watching the tropics nervously.
The costs of issuing hurricane warnings that don’t pan out are high. Not only are they expensive in terms of time and money, they quickly lead to the general population taking future predictions less seriously until one verifies and the evacuation routes get clogged.
OTOH, former NWS director Neil Frank spent some of his retirement trying to teach coastal residents of the risks they face and was amazed how little people understood. (A lot of “Well, they let the condo developer build it, so it must be okay.”) Hurricane Andrew and the recent high activity period have probably corrected some of that misconception, but I’m sure there are still a lot of clueless people.
Personally, I like the NHC maps. (I have some author privs, does this work for me? I think the last time I tried I decided I’m not privileged enough. Maybe if I quote URLs, WP seems to like that in posts.)
The image is at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/085713.gif
It does a good job of showing the storm is heading for Miami, but could well miss the state. It even makes me interested in seeing the next image. For people with a modicum of tropical storm knowledge, it reminds the storm could be shredded in Hispaniola’s mountains and rebuild itself over the Gulf Stream.
BTW, the NHC discussions never seem to talk about how they have to make sure they name every little zephyr, but focus on the measurements (and estimates) at hand. The latest notes:
The upper-level environment is expected to be quite favorable for
strengthening throughout the forecast period as a result of low
shear and a mid-oceanic trough to the east acting as a mass sink
for the outflow in the eastern semicircle. However…the intensity
forecast is heavily dependent on how much interaction Irene has
with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and what the inner core
of the cyclone becomes after it emerges off the northeast coast of
Cuba in about 4 days. Once over the Florida straits…however…
Irene will have at least 24 hours over some of the warmest water in
the Atlantic to tap into. The official forecast remains on the
conservative side due to land effects and is close to a blend of
Ships and LGEM statistical intensity models.
Forecaster Stewart
By the way, this year’s Southern New England Weather Conference (on Oct 22) will have a talk “The Challenge of Expressing Uncertainty for a Winter Storm in Densely Populated Southern New England” by Frank Nocera (National Weather Service – Taunton, MA). There have been similar talks in recent years as the NWS has been spending a fair amount of time on the subject.
Joe D’Aleo and Joe Bastardi will be there too, their talk is “Wild Winters a Sign of a New Climate Regime? Another? How Long Range Forecasts Benefit Commercial Users.”
C’mon Irene, thread that needle. You’re so close. Just a little bit to the south and you can make it into the Gulf of Mexico where you can grow big & strong and bring your beautiful train of rain bands into our desperately parched state. You go girl!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109.html
This is horrifying news !
It is virtually unprecedented !!
It has been over 290 days since there was a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin !!!
Quick ! Somebody alert Al Gore to the dangers we face.
[and for those a tad slow this morning … /sarc]
Leon Brozyna says:
August 21, 2011 at 8:00 am
Not to downplay the danger of a hurricane Irene, but it is interesting that were up to “I” already and none of the previous storms “A – H” have been anything significant.
Ah… CRAP!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_model.html
The only computer model that has Irene threading the needle into the Gulf of Mexico is the UK MET office model.
Quickly, can someone tell me off the top of their head why I might not trust the UKMET model as much as the others?
😉