UPDATE: co-author admits it is a “horrible mistake”, see below – Anthony
From the you’ve got to be effing kidding me department.
First, I apologize to my readers for the headline. Read on and I think you’ll see it is justified. The headline is paraphrased from the article and the paper to give you the flavor. I have reproduced the passage used by the Guardian and provided a link to the full paper below.
First, the Guardian story: (h/t to reader “a jones”)
Now the paper, peer reviewed and published in Acta Astronautica titled:
Would Contact with Extraterrestrials Benefit or Harm Humanity? A Scenario Analysis
Seth D. Baum,1 Jacob D. Haqq-Misra,2 & Shawn D. Domagal-Goldman3
1. Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University.
2. Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University
3. NASA Planetary Science Division
Acta Astronautica, 2011, 68(11-12): 2114-2129
Here’s the relevant passage:
A preemptive strike [from extraterrestrials] would be particularly likely in the early phases of our expansion because a civilization may become increasingly difficult to destroy as it continues to expand. Humanity may just now be entering the period in which its rapid civilizational expansion could be detected by an ETI because our expansion is changing the composition of Earth’s atmosphere (e.g. via greenhouse gas emissions), which therefore changes the spectral signature of Earth. While it is difficult to estimate the likelihood of this scenario, it should at a minimum give us pause as we evaluate our expansive tendencies.
Words fail me. Truly this is science fiction, and not the good kind. I have a feature called “Climate Craziness of the Week”, this may be the all time winner.
Read the entire paper here (PDF)
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UPDATE: Former Economist sci/tech reporter Oliver Morton chips in with this in comments, it seems a “horrible mistake” was made by the co-author. Still no word on how this passes peer review.
http://paleblueblog.org/post/9110304050/some-important-points-of-clarification
So here’s the thing. This isn’t a “NASA report.” It’s not work funded by NASA, nor is it work supported by NASA in other ways. It was just a fun paper written by a few friends, one of whom happens to have a NASA affiliation.
…
But I do admit to making a horrible mistake. It was an honest one, and a naive one… but it was a mistake nonetheless. I should not have listed my affiliation as “NASA Headquarters.” I did so because that is my current academic affiliation. But when I did so I did not realize the full implications that has. I’m deeply sorry for that, but it was a mistake born our of carelessness and inexperience and nothing more. I will do what I can to rectify this, including distributing this post to the Guardian, Drudge, and NASA Watch. Please help me spread this post to the other places you may see the article inaccurately attributed to NASA.
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rpercifield says:
August 18, 2011 at 4:43 pm
Just when I thought that these loopy rent seekers have “Jumped The Shark”, they set the bar higher and add some velocity. What could be next? Zeus returns from high on Olympus and strikes us all with lightning bolts? The Klingons armed with Batlifs maraud through the countryside? And this was peer reviewed? How the !@ur momisugly#$%^&* did that happen?
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Dude(et):
Stop giving them ideas!!!
Theo Goodwin says:
August 18, 2011 at 5:14 pm
Where is R. Gates’ comment?
R. Gates is busily pouring over old AGU presentations to see if he can find supporting evidence.
And they laugh at me because I believe in a loving God who gave us some rules to live by, in order to enjoy happier lives. How stupid of me. It’s clearly Aliens who judge and damn us.
This stuff belongs on some TV comedy about nerds, Big Bang Theory or such. The proposition is so far extrapolated from reality that one has to wonder about the intelligence of the author’s. I Googled the three of them and they are peas in a pod it would seem. 40 years ago you would dismiss these guys as acid heads but they are too young. Are the effects of LSD inheritable? Their paper presents compelling evidence that it may be, more compelling than the fantasy it sets out.
Do they have tenure? Does Penn State have ivory towers or are they just cheap plastic imitations? ( For ethical reasons of course.)
Must go now. I have a life to get on with. It is nice to start the day with a giggle though. Thankyou Andrew.
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy was a better story. It’s a lot easier for me to believe that alien civilizations would wipe out Earth because of a civil engineering bureaucratic foul-up, than to believe that an alien civilization capable of interstellar travel decide to destroy Earth because it discovered that it is a greenhouse with fluctuating greenhouse gases. I would think a space-faring species would consider that a rare find. Unless it had something against the color green. As the chief sentient indigenous species of Earth we might have some negotiating to do to keep what we have. But, then, it’s not like we haven’t had experience negotiated unequal treaties. So, for now, I’ll keep carrying my towel and hope the bureaucrats don’t destroy Earth.
Belief in AGW addles the mind.
Clearly there is a link between AGW alarmists and fantasists, And not in a good way. This impacts on their work and their scientific capability. And note it is always the taxpayer who is stuck with these loons. In private industry they would be as useful as tits on a bull.
Wow,
If there was no such thing as climate scientists, you’d have to make them up. Desperation doesn’t even begin to describe it.
We’ve been transmitting radio signals since 1906, television since 1926, our continents light up at night (need I mention the 42.3 billion candlepower light atop of the Las Vegas Luxor casino), in credible bursts of energy from atomic bombs, and a whole bunch of other obvious clues we’ve been giving off long before global warming and and these scientists think a small increase in CO2 finally tipped them off?
If the ETI’s knew the scientists who wrote this brilliant piece thought they were so stupid, they would be the first into the stewpot.
To serve “Mann” – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIufLRpJYnI
This is a near-record-setting winner in the categories of “dumb” and “self-serving.”
It essentially assumes that aliens would share values with the people in question, and then uses that assumption to build a case for political action.
Any one of use could make exactly the same argument with equal force on any topic you could think of.
That someone thought it was worthy of actually publishing is a little frightening, in terms of “people that thoughtless getting paid (probably) more than I do…”
cuckoo says:
August 18, 2011 at 5:09 pm
“Further to DJ’s comments, about a mile overhead, if the banjos fail, we’ll have no option but to go to the Doomsday scenario…bagpipes. And may God have mercy on us all.”
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Country & Western played on bagpipes?
Talk about your cruel and unusual punishment! Whatever happened to alien rights?
Wasn’t there something about alien rights in the preamble to the Constitution?
IPCC—the Inter Planetary Climate Committee—will come down on us not so ordinary earthlings. Face the death ray or pay “one million dollars” not US dollars please. It’s not extortion—it’s a tax.
Oh man, that’s such a relief, all the financial markets are moaning about the chance of a global recession. Maybe that will buy us some time unless the Vogon Constructor Fleet comes through first.
Hey Anthony, what is category GLOC? Is that better than ridiculae? http://www.abbreviations.com/GLOC isn’t very helpful (Guardian Life Of the Caribbean, Gorgeous Ladies Of Comedy, Ground Line Of Communication).
First used for http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/03/the-copenhagen-treaty-draft-wealth-transfer-defined-now-with-dignity-penalty/
Holy crap.
This was the plot of the crappy remake of The Day the Earth Stood Still.
When scientists start offering this stuff up as actual science, WE ARE DOOMED.
Uhm, little green men come from Mars? o_0
And Mars is warming faster an earth.
Pfft, so who cares if the might be aliens attack Mars or carbon dioxide Venus. At least we’d get a “premonition” and would be able to act accordingly as in eradicating all the might be god damn aliens, ha. :p
As a Penn State grad (BSME 1982) I find this more than a little upsetting. I ceased contributions to the institution some time ago, but this is simply humiliating. I feel this personally cheapens my educational credentials. A degree from Penn State used to command respect from almost all circles. Association with Mann has been bad enough. Now this.
“”Green” aliens might object to the environmental damage humans have caused on Earth and wipe us out to save the planet. “”
This is pure psychological projection on their part. It is the greenie eco-whackos who, ultimately, believe “the planet” would be far better off without us evil humans. It is the ultimate greenie megalomanic fantasy to see or have a hand in destroying mankind for the betterment of “the planet”.
It’s tottally true!
Theres gonna be space battles, buildings exploding, Will Smith will be a pilot who tries to save the world from alien invaders….
Oh, wait, that’s the movie ” Independence Day.”
OMG, I never thought of that! I will go out and buy a hybrid car today to fight off those nasty Aliens who now scientists believe both exist and hate us, scientists say.
What about God? He might look down from the heavens and smite us for causing all those Polar Bears to drown, scientists say. Using the logic of the paper, I will buy 100 hybrid cars and run them 24/7 to please God.
[/sarc]
The phrase “, scientists say” is like “may”, “might”, “could”. It has no place in a scientific discussion.
An interesting commentary at NASA Watch:
Sounds like the LGM* principle in operation.
Ian
*Little Green Men
I guess this is why aliens are referred to as “little green men”.
TheGoodLocust says (August 18, 2011 at 2:45 pm): “Um…..sounds like the plot to The Day the Earth Stood Still.”
That was my first thought, too, i.e. the 2008 ecologically correct version (with Keanu Reeves as “Klaatu”), not the 1951 politically correct entry featuring Michael Rennie. I was suitably amused until it occurred to me that Klaatu may already be among us; I’ve actually seen his super robot, Al Gort!
Lest anyone think we can avoid our fate by being “good”, note that virtue is just as likely to get us killed:
The truth may be out there, but it sure ain’t in Penn. State.
(Ok, I’ll stop, cause I got a million of these jokes.)
Global warming causes alien invasion. Yes, definately one for the Numberwatch list. I would larf if weren’t so criminally stupid.
Just want to clarify a point on what is required to achieve the speed of light. The sun accelerates several tons of matter every second to the speed of light in the form of photons. – and matter is energy and you don’t need several suns worth of energy to accelerate something to the speed of light.