UPDATE: co-author admits it is a “horrible mistake”, see below – Anthony
From the you’ve got to be effing kidding me department.
First, I apologize to my readers for the headline. Read on and I think you’ll see it is justified. The headline is paraphrased from the article and the paper to give you the flavor. I have reproduced the passage used by the Guardian and provided a link to the full paper below.
First, the Guardian story: (h/t to reader “a jones”)
Now the paper, peer reviewed and published in Acta Astronautica titled:
Would Contact with Extraterrestrials Benefit or Harm Humanity? A Scenario Analysis
Seth D. Baum,1 Jacob D. Haqq-Misra,2 & Shawn D. Domagal-Goldman3
1. Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University.
2. Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University
3. NASA Planetary Science Division
Acta Astronautica, 2011, 68(11-12): 2114-2129
Here’s the relevant passage:
A preemptive strike [from extraterrestrials] would be particularly likely in the early phases of our expansion because a civilization may become increasingly difficult to destroy as it continues to expand. Humanity may just now be entering the period in which its rapid civilizational expansion could be detected by an ETI because our expansion is changing the composition of Earth’s atmosphere (e.g. via greenhouse gas emissions), which therefore changes the spectral signature of Earth. While it is difficult to estimate the likelihood of this scenario, it should at a minimum give us pause as we evaluate our expansive tendencies.
Words fail me. Truly this is science fiction, and not the good kind. I have a feature called “Climate Craziness of the Week”, this may be the all time winner.
Read the entire paper here (PDF)
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UPDATE: Former Economist sci/tech reporter Oliver Morton chips in with this in comments, it seems a “horrible mistake” was made by the co-author. Still no word on how this passes peer review.
http://paleblueblog.org/post/9110304050/some-important-points-of-clarification
So here’s the thing. This isn’t a “NASA report.” It’s not work funded by NASA, nor is it work supported by NASA in other ways. It was just a fun paper written by a few friends, one of whom happens to have a NASA affiliation.
…
But I do admit to making a horrible mistake. It was an honest one, and a naive one… but it was a mistake nonetheless. I should not have listed my affiliation as “NASA Headquarters.” I did so because that is my current academic affiliation. But when I did so I did not realize the full implications that has. I’m deeply sorry for that, but it was a mistake born our of carelessness and inexperience and nothing more. I will do what I can to rectify this, including distributing this post to the Guardian, Drudge, and NASA Watch. Please help me spread this post to the other places you may see the article inaccurately attributed to NASA.
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Its so down below (this comment) that I’m sure no one is gonna read it, but there is a very simple argument that states that this particular theory (CO2 is dangerous coz aliens) is simply ridiculous:
We’ve been radiating radiowaves since the thirties. And those are a LOT more loud than the trace gases fluctuations.
So the cat’s out of the proverbial bag already. If there are aliens “out to get us” we are doomed already.
By the time they spotted this and come over to destroy us it will not be necessary any more because see levels will have risen so high we all are drowned anyway.
Or our sun has already changed into a red giant and has engulfed earth with it.
Except offcourse if they invented timewarp and be here on time to rescue us from Penn State and M. Man.
BrianMcL says:
August 18, 2011 at 3:16 pm
“I must remember this one the next time someone sounds off about the precautionary principle.”
Excellent! It is equivalent to Pascal’s Wager (at least the version explained in William James’ “The Will to Believe” (1896)).
Further to DJ’s comments, about a mile overhead, if the banjos fail, we’ll have no option but to go to the Doomsday scenario…bagpipes. And may God have mercy on us all.
What if the aliens come and offer to buy the technology that would permit them to raise the Global Average Temperature of their planet?
Message from Galactic Central:
While monitoring the human species and especially their homeworld for the past 5 million years, we grow concerned of late regarding recent events. We are, therefore, instituting a quarantine of the human planetary system.to keep this disease of bizarre stupidity from spreading to other, more promising, sentient species. We remain hopeful that rational intelligence will once more emerge as a distinguishing characteristic of the human species. We are patient and will see what the next dozen millennia or so hold.
Until then ….
****background chatter**** …preemptive strike indeed … you’d think they were still climbing trees and scampering through the grasses … ****signal ends****
Where is R. Gates’ comment? I searched on his name. I want to hear his explanation of the quality of this article in light of the fact that it was peer-reviewed.
Well, this is a direct continuation of the old 1950-1989 sci-fi theme. Before 1989, when writers and publishers took their orders directly from Moscow, the aliens were trying to stop Americans from using nuclear weapons.
Since 1989, writers and publishers are still enemy saboteurs, but now their orders come from Beijing. China wants to destroy American industry, doesn’t care much about American weapons.
Thus the aliens have shifted their focus to satisfy Chinese goals.
If you wanted proof that these guys at Penn State and NASA might quite not know what they are talking about, Cowboys and Aliens has just hit the big screen! What on earth was in the popcorn? Did the theatre serve Kool Ade? Free!?
I have tears from laughing so hard! OMG!!! This is a great B-movie scifi idea. The killer is that they’re gonna have to borrow your van to get back to their spaceship.
Fox has it, and says it’s “thought-provoking”:
18 Aug: Fox Memphis: Experts Release ET Invasion Scenarios
They speculate that extraterrestrial environmentalists could be so appalled by our planet-polluting ways that they view us as a threat to the intergalactic ecosystem and decide to destroy us.
The thought-provoking scenario is one of many envisaged in a joint study by Penn State and the NASA Planetary Science Division, entitled “Would Contact with Extraterrestrials Benefit or Harm Humanity? A Scenario Analysis.”…
http://www.myfoxmemphis.com/dpps/news/offbeat/experts-release-et-invasion-scenarios-dpgonc-20110818-ch_14624398
Discovery has it, analyses it and says “we need studies like this”. also links to the Guardian article.
18 Aug: Discovery: To Save the Galaxy, Destroy Humanity
Analysis by Ian O’Neill
Needless to say, all these scenarios are completely constructed from human experience — any study into the hypothetical nature of ETI will have a heavy anthropocentric bias. What if we encounter an alien civilization whose intentions are completely baffling? What if we can’t decide whether their intentions will be positive, negative or neutral?
Well, I suppose that’s why we need studies like this.
http://news.discovery.com/space/save-the-galaxy-destroy-humanity-110818.html
weep.
These yahoos are working on their Phd’s at Penn. They are probably a couple of geeks that run around speaking klingon. You notice all the movie and scifi book references. They even managed a Star Trek reference. I wouldn’t take this too seriously.
JC
JohnWho says:
August 18, 2011 at 4:23 pm
On the other hand Carl, I suppose it might be possible that ET would invade us because our atmospheric CO2 level is rising and they want our CO2!
Sell ’em Venus.
On the other hand: why not have Penn. State and M Mann have all the funding they need.
Just for the fun of it.
This is better than the Muppet Show.
By what merit does this stuff need a scientific peer review? Is it just because it comes from a university? because honestly, i see no science here…just fiction. I can write fiction like this too…but it wouldnt be peer reviewed or published..
stimulus money. priceless.
Theo Goodwin says:
August 18, 2011 at 5:14 pm
Where is R. Gates’ comment? I searched on his name. I want to hear his explanation of the quality of this article in light of the fact that it was peer-reviewed.
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needs repeating……………………..
So they are supposed to think we trashed the planet…..
….and their solution is to blow it up
………………………………………….42
Sadly, too true!
Yep, a “planetary defense tax” (levied on all developed countries) and a “planetary defense force” with total authority is obviously required; just in case.
Somone call SETI and have them scratch Penn State off the list of places to search for intelligent life.
Why isn’t this in PNAS?
The picture should have the Goracle instead of Jack Nickolson since the Goracle has 2 large houses, one with a heated pool in Nashville where he apparentley consumes 10 times more power than average Tennessian. He also has a 100 foot houseboat with 2 jet skis. And he jets all over the world instead of hanging out with that masuese in Portland and saving fuel but using a lot of (baby) oil.
The Goracle should be reordained as the Vice Hypocrite and Chief.
All of this must just be whimsical farce, written tongue- in- cheek to have a good laugh at the expense of all who would take them seriously.
Right?
Come on, NASA, Penn State… right?
To Serve Mann . . .
guess it is one of those days!
18 Aug: Statesman: AP: Seth Borenstein: Study: Species moving away from global warming faster
north much faster than they were less than a decade ago, a new study says.
About 2,000 species examined are moving away from the equator at an average rate of more than 15 feet per day, about a mile per year, according to new research published Thursday in the journal Science which analyzed previous studies…
“The more warming there’s been in an area, the more you would expect a species to move, and the more they have moved,” said study main author Chris Thomas, a biologist at the University of York.
“The speed is an important issue,” he said. “It is faster than we thought.”…
As the temperatures soared in the 2000s, the species studied moved faster to cooler places, Parmesan (Camille Parmesan, an ecologist at the University of Texas at Austin) said…
http://www.statesman.com/news/nation/study-species-moving-away-from-global-warming-faster-1761154.html
Of course space aliens exist — my model told me so. It produces gremlins too.
Since this is peer reviewed science, this is a prime candidate for inclusion in the next IPCC Assessment’s Summary for Policymakers.