UPDATE: co-author admits it is a “horrible mistake”, see below – Anthony
From the you’ve got to be effing kidding me department.
First, I apologize to my readers for the headline. Read on and I think you’ll see it is justified. The headline is paraphrased from the article and the paper to give you the flavor. I have reproduced the passage used by the Guardian and provided a link to the full paper below.
First, the Guardian story: (h/t to reader “a jones”)
Now the paper, peer reviewed and published in Acta Astronautica titled:
Would Contact with Extraterrestrials Benefit or Harm Humanity? A Scenario Analysis
Seth D. Baum,1 Jacob D. Haqq-Misra,2 & Shawn D. Domagal-Goldman3
1. Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University.
2. Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University
3. NASA Planetary Science Division
Acta Astronautica, 2011, 68(11-12): 2114-2129
Here’s the relevant passage:
A preemptive strike [from extraterrestrials] would be particularly likely in the early phases of our expansion because a civilization may become increasingly difficult to destroy as it continues to expand. Humanity may just now be entering the period in which its rapid civilizational expansion could be detected by an ETI because our expansion is changing the composition of Earth’s atmosphere (e.g. via greenhouse gas emissions), which therefore changes the spectral signature of Earth. While it is difficult to estimate the likelihood of this scenario, it should at a minimum give us pause as we evaluate our expansive tendencies.
Words fail me. Truly this is science fiction, and not the good kind. I have a feature called “Climate Craziness of the Week”, this may be the all time winner.
Read the entire paper here (PDF)
================================================================
UPDATE: Former Economist sci/tech reporter Oliver Morton chips in with this in comments, it seems a “horrible mistake” was made by the co-author. Still no word on how this passes peer review.
http://paleblueblog.org/post/9110304050/some-important-points-of-clarification
So here’s the thing. This isn’t a “NASA report.” It’s not work funded by NASA, nor is it work supported by NASA in other ways. It was just a fun paper written by a few friends, one of whom happens to have a NASA affiliation.
…
But I do admit to making a horrible mistake. It was an honest one, and a naive one… but it was a mistake nonetheless. I should not have listed my affiliation as “NASA Headquarters.” I did so because that is my current academic affiliation. But when I did so I did not realize the full implications that has. I’m deeply sorry for that, but it was a mistake born our of carelessness and inexperience and nothing more. I will do what I can to rectify this, including distributing this post to the Guardian, Drudge, and NASA Watch. Please help me spread this post to the other places you may see the article inaccurately attributed to NASA.
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This is beyond parody. But wait a sec- this is from “scientists” at Penn State, home of the great Professor Mann.
Nothing to see here, move along!
Good God, these clowns are stupid beyond belief.
Are we sure this isn’t The Onion?
“Read the entire paper here (PDF)”
=============================================
I tried. I almost clicked the link. I can’t. I just can’t. I want to. I just can’t. It would be great to have every time someone babbles about peer-reviewed being a proxy for validity…. or every time someone spews about how much smarter the expert scientists are, or any number of things. But I just can’t. I’ve had too much cerebral pornography to last me a lifetime…..this could possibly destroy my faith in humanity……. I just can’t…..
Jer0me says:
August 18, 2011 at 3:37 pm
OK.
So can we add “the threat of alien invasion” to the things that Global Warming can cause, then?
Heh, certainly looks like a good entry for the warmlist.
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
Carl “Bear” Bussjaeger says:
August 18, 2011 at 3:34 pm
“Truly this is science fiction, and not the good kind.”
No. It isn’t.
Not even the bad kind.
I write science fiction. My readers expect the science part to have some basis in reality (even if only a theory not generally accepted, it has to be internally consistent).
On the other hand Carl, I suppose it might be possible that ET would invade us because our atmospheric CO2 level is rising and they want our CO2!
Probably not, but it makes just about as much sense.
🙂
Who’s to say they couldn’t be chlorophyll-based life forms and the extra CO2 is what saved us by being deemed a beneficial species.
I am ecstatic! Yes, Indeedee!
I just love scarey stories- can’t get enough of ’em.
Way to go NASA! I knew you had it in you (these days.)
At 3:40 PM on 18 August, AndyG55 had written:
Take not the names of our honored dead in vain, you, you mundane!
If any of the charlatans who’d authored this Acta Astrologica bumfodder had been real science fiction fen – readers of the work produced by Fred Hoyle, Robert A. Heinlein, “Doc” Smith, Isaac Asimov, or Clifford Simak – they would not have displayed the dearth of moral and intellectual integrity displayed in this spurious dollop of “research” published in a supposedly peer-reviewed scientific periodical.
Fans, Andy, are slans.
Words fail me….
John From New Zealand says:
August 18, 2011 at 3:34 pm
good point!
It would be pretty cool if they arrived in their spaceships and gave an ultimatum along the lines of..”all those who believe in AGW go to one side of the date line – all those who dont, go to the other, we know the answer and will settle the dispute once and for all” – Then after a week, they vaporize all those on one half of the planet and bugger off again, muttering something like – ‘right then, off to sort out another of the galaxies disputes..’……..
I wonder how many of the Team would stick with AGW once such a metaphorical ‘gun’ was pressed to their heads? I mean, I often wonder whether these guys really truly believe in their stuff or just believe in the tax dollars and funding they can screw out of the system? This is how cynical I have become, something I would never have dreamed of when I became hooked on scientific method and principles all those years ago…….
I can see what these guys spent their research grant on.
Pass it over here lads.
Now I know why governments are so keen on distance charging. Aliens rock up with their invasion fleet, get clamped and presented with a bill for XXly @ur momisugly $1/km. If they can’t pay, we end up confiscating their ships and owning their planets. Personally I’d suggest beaming out our TV and radio poses a bigger risk.
crosspatch> Maybe the aliens will be the bad guys.
No, they will be the good guys, coming to save earth by showing us the zero-CO2 energy generation technology in their nuclear powered ships. Then destroying us, when they realize [] we know about nuclear but refuse to use.
🙂
Well, the proof that intelligent lifeforms exist in the galaxy is the fact they did not come to visit us.
So relax.
You’ll notice two of the paper’s authors are from Penn State… which currently
includes Mike Mann as one of their leading lights with his dergee in geology and
his stellar work in climate ??? hindcast/forecast modeling.
The AGW peer reviewed crowd has now introduced their own version of a
deus ex machina popular in old morality plays to save the day in
their never ending charade.
One can only hope Al Gore incorporates this theme in his presentations.
He always was a stand-up comedian type of guy.
Alternate reality stuff. Great plot for a B-movie with subpar lines and overbearing acting.
If Space Aliens really did come by this place, they would soon realize that there’s no welcome mat. They’d blow it off and keep right on trekking. They certainly wouldn’t be sharing any of thier advanced technology with a bunch of madcap governments and crazed leadership.
“Nothing to see down there, move the fleet along”.
That’s is they could get here.
More likely some government or big entity would try to pull off a Piltdown UFO visit, claiming to have been chosen to rule the world.
Wait just a cotton picking minute, I thought the heat was TRAPPED here, how do the aliens detect it from light years away ?????????
Can they detect the previously undiscovered MISSING HEAT rays ?????
Just how desperate are these carpetbaggers?
And no doubt, “much more research is required if we are to complete the picture”.
This “work” should be submitted for the 100 metre facepalm in the Olympics.
I woke all my housemates up laughing at this so hard, I think I’ll be getting to sleep tonight by knocking myself unconscious with the corresponding facepalm.
Anthony: we need a way to vote for our favourite “Climate Craziness” story. Then post the monthly and yearly winners. Gems like this should not be buried.
Just when I thought that these loopy rent seekers have “Jumped The Shark”, they set the bar higher and add some velocity. What could be next? Zeus returns from high on Olympus and strikes us all with lightning bolts? The Klingons armed with Batlifs maraud through the countryside? And this was peer reviewed? How the !@ur momisugly#$%^&* did that happen?
That NASA and even that a University would put their names to something like this is utterly disgraceful. Personally, I’d like to know if they had any funding for this (and of course, the source), and if it was developed and written during work hours for NASA at least – e.g., on the taxpayer dime. I assume Penn State is a public univ, but don’t know if that means their staff salaries are only state supported or if they’d be partially federally funded as well. I suppose to be fair I ought to read the actual paper first, but just the fact that the media can come up with this sort of story about it makes me wish we could strip the credentials of the ‘scientists’ who wrote the study (and maybe even look at those who taught them!) – and any involved who’s salaries ARE courtesy of taxpayers ought to be fired, asap.
Reply to: mark wagner says: August 18, 2011 at 2:46 pm
Mark, Mark, Mark! Are you behind the times or what? Don’tcha know that those aliens will just use their choice of technologies such as ‘faster than light,’ hyperdrive, space folding, wormholes, stargates, or the like? Need the power of a sun? No problem, them aliens – er, I mean, sentient beings originating from a planet other than Earth – they’ll learned how to create and harness such power long ago, no problem! Get with the times there, Mark!
Reply to: vboring says: August 18, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Too true! And the benevolent helpful ones will pass us by for the same reason. My back of the envelope calculation shows conclusively that vboring’s hypothesis (above) is 10.14159e6 times more probable than the aliens killing us because of CO2 increase in our atmosphere /sarc.
If this isn’t satire these people are seriously sick. Fools all.
I’m going to invoke a warmist refute:
“I can’t believe this got published.”
What’s more worrying, the fact this got published, or the fact someone in the Grants office approved the application!
As an analytical chemist, I am impressed with the alien technology that produced the detector that can delineate the spectral shift from a couple ppm of CO2 from xyz # of light years away. I’d love to patent that sucker!!
I’m loving the ratcheting up of the desperation of the fraudsters though. Truly hilarious.