UPDATE: co-author admits it is a “horrible mistake”, see below – Anthony
From the you’ve got to be effing kidding me department.
First, I apologize to my readers for the headline. Read on and I think you’ll see it is justified. The headline is paraphrased from the article and the paper to give you the flavor. I have reproduced the passage used by the Guardian and provided a link to the full paper below.
First, the Guardian story: (h/t to reader “a jones”)
Now the paper, peer reviewed and published in Acta Astronautica titled:
Would Contact with Extraterrestrials Benefit or Harm Humanity? A Scenario Analysis
Seth D. Baum,1 Jacob D. Haqq-Misra,2 & Shawn D. Domagal-Goldman3
1. Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University.
2. Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University
3. NASA Planetary Science Division
Acta Astronautica, 2011, 68(11-12): 2114-2129
Here’s the relevant passage:
A preemptive strike [from extraterrestrials] would be particularly likely in the early phases of our expansion because a civilization may become increasingly difficult to destroy as it continues to expand. Humanity may just now be entering the period in which its rapid civilizational expansion could be detected by an ETI because our expansion is changing the composition of Earth’s atmosphere (e.g. via greenhouse gas emissions), which therefore changes the spectral signature of Earth. While it is difficult to estimate the likelihood of this scenario, it should at a minimum give us pause as we evaluate our expansive tendencies.
Words fail me. Truly this is science fiction, and not the good kind. I have a feature called “Climate Craziness of the Week”, this may be the all time winner.
Read the entire paper here (PDF)
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UPDATE: Former Economist sci/tech reporter Oliver Morton chips in with this in comments, it seems a “horrible mistake” was made by the co-author. Still no word on how this passes peer review.
http://paleblueblog.org/post/9110304050/some-important-points-of-clarification
So here’s the thing. This isn’t a “NASA report.” It’s not work funded by NASA, nor is it work supported by NASA in other ways. It was just a fun paper written by a few friends, one of whom happens to have a NASA affiliation.
…
But I do admit to making a horrible mistake. It was an honest one, and a naive one… but it was a mistake nonetheless. I should not have listed my affiliation as “NASA Headquarters.” I did so because that is my current academic affiliation. But when I did so I did not realize the full implications that has. I’m deeply sorry for that, but it was a mistake born our of carelessness and inexperience and nothing more. I will do what I can to rectify this, including distributing this post to the Guardian, Drudge, and NASA Watch. Please help me spread this post to the other places you may see the article inaccurately attributed to NASA.
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ScepticalCanadian in the Gaurdian made me Laugh Out Loud.
“There you have it folks the hard evidence we have all been waiting for to confirm the validity of the global warming theory.
Now that catastrophic warming is a bust we must attempt to scare the population into action with reports of alines. What about the loch ness monster, big foot perhaps we could get a report on how global warming is affecting them? I have often wondered how 1/2 degree of warming will affect poltergeist or goblins, could we get a report on this as well?
LMAO Peer reviewed science indeed.”
The main Norwegian newspaper Dagbladet printed an article about this the 20. August:
http://www.dagbladet.no/2011/08/20/nyheter/forskning/utenomjordisk_liv/17737039/
The phenomenal thing is that they (who have been believers in AGW from the start, and have had not a little responsibility for turning Norway into a land of believers and Norwegian politicians into the most AGW-taxing politicians in existence) included a poll:
Who do you fear most? – Aliens, or – Alien-researchers?
http://stem.start.no/result.php?id=17864
As you can see, Norwegian readers fear alien-researchers most: 87% as the poll had 15000 votes.
The poll has now been deleted, and I have my suspicions why…
Believing this will take one small step for Mann but a giant leap for the rest of mankind.
Do the authors also imagine what it will be like when the aliens arrive? Will it resemble the finale of Duck Soup?
I doubt that aliens will waste any resources to finish off human civilization once they see what a good job we’re doing by ourselves.
Why aren’t they already here?
Check out “Flying to Valhalla”, by Pellegrino. With the Rules for Alien Contact co-authored by Asimov.
In a nutshell, at least some, or one, predatory space-going species would consider all other such to be competitors to be destroyed. Such a species would probably set up near-C missile factories around their star, and launch at any potential rival.
Other races, not so aggressive, must consider that someone out there thinks like that. The only rational self-preservation strategy is pre-emptive: do it first. So every technological species must reluctantly be obliged to destroy all others as soon as they are detected.
That’s why there’s a Big Silence out there. Knowing the above, the only way to survive, additional setting up your own automated missile factories, is to be very quiet, and migrate to an unlikely locale around some other star, dig in, and hide.
About the missiles: a .92C shuttle-sized object would blow a hundred mile hole in the atmosphere and crust, and wipe out all advanced life. At that speed, you get to see its gamma wake at about 12X its actual distance from you. If it seems 1 light-month away, it’s actually about 4 days out.
Time enough to bend over and kiss your bippy goodbye.
Did any editors resign over this Scientific research yet?