UAH Global Temperature Update July, 2011: +0.37 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
How ironic..a “global warming denier” reporting on warmer temperatures 
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for July, 2011 increased to +0.37 deg. C (click on the image for a LARGE version):
Even though the Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly cooled slightly in July, as did the tropics, warming in the Southern Hemisphere more than made up for it:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.372 +0.340 +0.404 +0.198
For those who want to infer great meaning from large month-to-month temperature changes, I remind them that much of this activity is due to natural variations in the rate at which the ocean loses heat to the atmosphere. Evidence for this is seen at the end of the sea surface temperature record through last month, which has a down-tick during the recent up-tick in atmospheric temperatures:
Global Sea Surface Temperature through July:
Here are the SST anomalies from AMSR-E on the NASA Aqua satellite (note the different base period, since Aqua has been flying only since 2002…click for a larger version):
Thanks UAH for finally posting a map! http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2011/july/JULY-2011.png (But what happened to your map for June?)
I was wondering where all this SH warmth could possibly be – as most of the habitable SH is suffering an unusually cold winter. Now I can see that (at least according to UAH) it is/was pretty much all concentrated over Antarctica. (Is that why Vostok station is only about -70F instead of the usual -102 F?)
Still, it seems odd. These July temps are almost up to an El Nino level.
J Calvert N says:
August 1, 2011 at 2:03 pm
“Still, it seems odd. These July temps are almost up to an El Nino level.”
—-
No, not really odd at all. Only odd if you were expecting Joe Bastardi’s cooling to begin perhaps…
“I would expect more records to be broken over the next few months as were starting to see more and more effects of man made Global Warming.”
Brian. Moreover I can predict that no amount of warming will convince some people of the basic physics. GHGs cause the earth to be warmer than it would be naturally. But you will always find people who refuse to accept the physics we used to defend this great country. They will say that they see nothing “unnatural” without defining that term. They will ignore Lindzen, Spenser, Christy, who all agree that more GHGs cause more warming that we would see otherwise. No amount of warming would convince them. No amount of new records. Nothing will convince them. Not and ice free arctic, not more heatwaves, not increased temps. Nothing.
Where the hell have they got their thermometers? Here in NZ we basked in exceptional warmth during June. But July? It has been freezing! And all over – both islands. Massive snow falls, best ski season in ages but bitterly, bitterly cold. Seems like a lot of Aus was the same – cf Pat above – I haven’t checked the rest of Australian states.
So like I say, where ARE the thermometers?
For those who are discussing ocean acidification.
Either the CO2 molecule is in the ocean reducing its alkalinity (ok ok acidifying it) or it’s in the atmosphere warming the surface. But it can’t be in both places at once.
If the theory is that half mans emissions stay in the atmosphere warming it, and the other half is in the oceans acidifying it, has anybody crunched the numbers? There just isn’t enough extra CO2 to make enough of a difference that we could detect with current measuring systems.
Who would have thought that 0.37c could warm up enough bridges sufficiently to excite a surfeit of slumbering trolls
Ain’t science wonderful?.
Brian: “The heatwave that has been going on in the southern US the last few months is unbelievable.”
What were you saying this past winter when we had cooler than normal temperatures and record lows were being set everywhere????
MikeEE
steven mosher,
I’m sorry to see you still don’t grasp the null hypothesis. If you can show us where current temperatures or trends are outside of historical parameters over the Holocene, please post the information.
Yes, CO2 probably does bring about some moderate warming, probably around 1°C per 2xCO2. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less. But contrary to what the alarmist crowd believes, on balance that added warmth is a net benefit to the biosphere, humans included. So is the increased CO2 which, even if it doubled from here [and it most likely can’t], it would still be classified it as a very minor trace gas. And as we know, every additional CO2 molecule has a smaller effect… except on plants.
If temperatures ever exceed those of the Holocene, I’ll sit up straight and pay attention. In the mean time, Occam’s Razor says the simplest explanation is the correct one. In this case it is natural variability.
R Gates says “No, not really odd at all. Only odd if you were expecting Joe Bastardi’s cooling to begin perhaps…” I believe you’re talking about a warming trend – that will be argued-over for more years to come. I’m pondering a sharp spike – not a trend. All the sharp spikes on the UAH graph since 1998 (and probably before as well) correspond well with El Nino events. This one doesn’t. So it’s interesting.
It’s probably the reason for the July dip in this Antarctic Sea Ice chart. http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png That dip is now finished. So it will be interesting to see if the the UAH August chart shows the spike subsiding.
Actually July in Paraguay was very warm, due to constant high Pressure off Brazil Coast pushing northerly winds straight down from equator through Paraguay, Northern Argentina and Uruguay. Its changed now and its freezing down here….wind has turned south from Antarctica. Its all normal BTW and happens frequently look at temp records…. not due to AGW!
Mosh,
“Moreover I can predict that no amount of warming will convince some people of the basic physics. GHGs cause the earth to be warmer than it would be naturally. But you will always find people who refuse to accept the physics we used to defend this great country. They will say that they see nothing “unnatural” without defining that term.”
Faulty logic. The ‘basic physics’ of GHG does not in any way predict a specifc observable surface temperature. The ‘basic physics’ of GHG is but one input in an incrediblly complex system of other ‘basic physics’ inputs and both positive and negative feedbacks.
“They will ignore Lindzen, Spenser, Christy, who all agree that more GHGs cause more warming that we would see otherwise.”
You will ignore Lindzen, Spencer, Christy, who all agree that the level of ‘more warming’ that the current level of GHGs cause could be imperceptable, given current methods and the variability of the data. Spencer currenty puts it at MAX 0.66 C /century, with the open possibility that it could be lower. The effects of such cannot be seen over these timeframes, and you ignore Pielke Jr when you claim otherwise.
“No amount of warming would convince them. No amount of new records. Nothing will convince them. Not and ice free arctic, not more heatwaves, not increased temps.”
None of those things should convince them, as none of those things is determinative for anthro warming. Warming, new records, ice free whereevers, heatwaves, increased temps (but you repeat yourself) are all facets of climate, anthro warming or not. The ‘amount’ of these things is immaterial to the determination of CAGW. The source is material, but that is not derivable from any particular level in the gross ‘amount’.
@ur momisugly steven mosher
August 1, 2011 at 2:25 pm
“GHGs cause the earth to be warmer than it would be naturally.”
By how much? Do you include H2O? Perhaps you would care to use your knowledge of the basic physics to inform us exactly what is the contribution made by radiative GHGs to the current Greenhouse Effect? Possibly you could express your answer either as a percentage or in degrees Celsius? Then perhaps you could explain what contribution the GHGs made in 1850?
“But you will always find people who refuse to accept the physics we used to defend this great country.”
Is this different physics to the kind other countries use?
“Nothing will convince them. Not and ice free arctic…”
Not and (sic) ice free arctic? When? I must have missed the memo…
steven mosher says:
Check out the posts from the chaps in Austrailia and New Zealand. AGW disproved by the exact same logic you use to prove it.
It’s also been freezing cold in Chile and South Africa.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/chile/8656274/Chile-hit-by-white-earthquake-of-heavy-snow.html
Ocean to atmosphere to space: the heat build-up since the 70’s will take a while to dissipate, and every summer heatwave sends more warmth spaceward. Those of us who believe the sun might have something to do with global warming should learn if we’re right or wrong in the next few years.
Its been cold in NZ the last couple of weeks. But thats just weather. The autumn and early winter were unusually warm on average here, but that was also just weather. Nothing is proven either way.
Jeremy says:
August 1, 2011 at 1:58 pm
“Your long-term memory capabilities seem to be what is unbelievable. This is August in the northern hemisphere and you state things like “I would expect more records to be broken over the next few months…”
—>” Oh wow, where we live is hot now that we’re in late summer! Who would have expected right?! And look! Weather conditions in various places are creating temperature heat records in the summer! Amazing!”
“I suspect you were one of the people complaining about all the talk of snow records set last winter and tried to explain how they were not evidence that CAGW was wrong. But of course, any heat wave in the summer is somehow “unbelievable”.
“As many will say to you, I’m not laughing at you, I’m laughing with your future laughter at your own folly.”
Down here in GA it was already hitting in the mid-90’s in June when the average temps are supposed to be in the mid to upper 80’s. Now it’s due to reach the upper 90’s and lower 100’s in the next few days.
“Now I can see that (at least according to UAH) it is/was pretty much all concentrated over Antarctica.”
Could Roy comment on that ?
With a lot of cold air in the southern midlatitudes during the southern hemisphere winter it seems logical that the cold air which flowed out of the Antarctic was replaced by warmer air from the midlatitudes flowing into the Antarctic.
However, looking at the system as a whole more energy in the air over the Antarctic in winter is more likely to lead to faster energy loss to space.
I wonder whether the weighting is correct between Antarctic readings and southern hemisphere mid latitude readings. Is it possible for that to be askew ?
MikeEE says:
August 1, 2011 at 2:47 pm
What were you saying this past winter when we had cooler than normal temperatures and record lows were being set everywhere????”
There is no La Nina out there now is there?
Brian says:
“Down here in GA it was already hitting in the mid-90′s in June when the average temps are supposed to be in the mid to upper 80′s. Now it’s due to reach the upper 90′s and lower 100′s in the next few days.”
Thanks for the regional weather report, Brian. You do know, I hope, that “global warming” over the past century an a half has been about 0.7°C. You’re just experiencing a routine Georgia heat wave. Relax, “carbon” isn’t gonna getcha.☺
[BTW: where I live, in California, the weather has been much below normal this year. It all averages out globally. There is nothing to worry about. The weather always varies from year to year, and from place to place.]
Time for some more browbeating:
“Juuuuuuuuuuly’s blaaaaaaaaazinnnnnnnng heeeeeeeat set rrrrrrecordssssss innnn allllllll 50 staaaaaaaaatessssss!”
🙂
Forecast: Global temps fall to -.25 c ( .15 cooler than drop last year) for Jan-March. AMO goes neutral to cold, giving up first cold pdo/amo couplet since 70s.
Forecast entered, so lets see how good I do ( note: forecasted drop to normal last year for start of this year) BTW most climate models are seeing the drop, the most impressive is frontier research center!
R.Gates, & La Guy
From your link, the paper stated, “Taking this example, even at high CO2 concentrations,
with a significant lowering of ocean pH, the carbonate buffer means that the oceans are still slightly alkaline (ie a pH of less than 7).” I’m glad it states what many here know, that pH changes are difficult due to the natural buffer of the ocean. Also, it incorrectly states a pH less than 7 is alkaline. Gee, was this paper a result of peer review?
Also from your link; “Even the current level of ocean acidification is essentially irreversible during our lifetimes. It will take tens of thousands of years for ocean chemistry to return to a condition similar to that occurring at pre-industrial times, about 200 years ago.” Wow, sounds like ocean acidification is a done deal! That being the supposed case, why then do you & others use it during a discussion about human CO2 emissions; unless of course you feel the need to alarm?
The paper also reported modern ocean pH to be 8.2 +/- 0.3. It also states; “This dissolution of CO2 has lowered the average pH of the oceans by about 0.1 units from pre-industrial levels
(Caldeira & Wickett 2003).” So, a supposed drop of 0.1 units over a 200 year period is statistically significant within a system that is known to vary between 7.9 and 8.5, because of what?
Try harder.
Thanks, Joe, We’ll see if you are right. BTW we in the Pac NW US are finally getting a _normal_
summer it has be well below normal since spring. Hope we get a long, warm, fall this year.
Even if it brings out warmists …