Story Submitted by Mike Bromley
ASTEROID FLYBY: – Asteroid will pass 12, 000 Km (7,500 miles) from Earth
Newly-discovered asteroid 2011 MD will pass only 12,000 kilometers (7,500 miles) above Earth’s surface on Monday June 27 at about 9:30 a.m. EDT. NASA analysts say there is no chance the space rock will strike Earth. Nevertheless, the encounter is so close that Earth’s gravity will sharply alter the asteroid’s trajectory.
At closest approach, 2011 MD will pass in broad daylight over the southern Atlantic Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. As the asteroid recedes from Earth, it will pass through the zone of geosynchronous satellites. The chances of a collision with a satellite or manmade space junk are extremely small, albeit not zero.
Judging from the brightness of the asteroid, it measures only 5 to 20 meters in diameter. According to JPL’s Near Earth Object Program office, one would expect an object of this size to come this close to Earth about every 6 years on average. For a brief time, it will be bright enough to be seen even with a medium-sized backyard telescope.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news172.html
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There is nothing new under the sun, as red flows from green.
“Next day, the dawn was a brilliant, fiery red and I wandered through the weird and lurid landscape of another planet, for the vegetation which gives Mars its red appearance had taken root on Earth. As man had succumbed to the Martians, so our land now succumbed to the red weed.
Wherever there was a stream the red weed clung and grew with frightening voraciousness, its claw-like fronds choking the movement of the water. And then it began to creep like a slimy red animal across the land covering field and ditch and tree and hedgerow with living scarlet feelers, crawling, crawling.”
That is the original H. G. Wells version of what Orson Welles turned into a purposeful warning not about aliens but about mass hysteria via his green Martian attack radio spoof on the radio (now immortalized on YouTube).
Related to the alarmist view of skeptics themselves as alien outsiders of groupthink, I dedicate the following quote from a movie produced as “n*ps in flying ships” bombed Pear Harbor, to James “Death Train” Hansen:
“Something had happened, a thing which years ago had been the eagerest hope of many, many good citizens of the town. And now it came at last: George Amberson Minafer had got his comeuppance. He’d got it three times filled and running over. But those who had longed for it were not there to see it. And they never knew it, those who were still living had forgotten all about it, and all about him.” – Orson Welles (introductory voiceover to the movie “The Magnificent Ambersons”)
Meteroids are considered part of the positive feedback system. This is all in line with CAGW models.
@ecogeek: ‘ which “distended” three fingers at arms length’. Did you possibly mean to say “subtended” three fingers?
John R. Walker says:
June 24, 2011 at 3:19 am
“I just hope the UK Met Office don’t try and model the possible outcomes or we’ll probably have to close earth down for 3 days…”
They would probably come up with some scenarios. Some of the scenarios would say it will be a hit, and some wouldnt……And afterwards they could say they were right!
Asteroids and meteors are always a concern. Death from the skies and all.
“2008 TC3 (Catalina Sky Survey temporary designation 8TA9D69) was a meteoroid 2 to 5 meters (7 to 16 ft) in diameter and weighting 80 tonnes,[1] that entered Earth’s atmosphere on October 7, 2008, at 02:46 UTC (05:46 local time).[2] The meteoroid was notable as the first such body to be observed and tracked prior to reaching Earth.[3] It exploded an estimated 37 kilometers (23 mi) above the Nubian Desert in Sudan. A search of the impact zone that began on December 2008 turned up 10.5 kilograms (23 lb) of meteorites in 600 fragments, which are surviving pieces of the meteoroid. The meteorites are of a rare type known as ureilites, which contain, among other minerals, nanodiamonds.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_TC3
“Is Asteroid 2011 MD Space Junk?
When I was working up the details for yesterday’s story on asteroid 2011 MD, I gasped when I looked at the orbit diagram. Not only does this body’s orbit intersect Earth’s, but it’s also in the same plane (within a few degrees), and moving at almost the same velocity. Somehow, it seemed unlikely to be an accident!”
http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/highlights/124484634.html
I always find the topic of meteors and asteroids striking. Actually, I have an adze that was made out of a 2×5 inch meteorite that landed in Tibet aka “sky iron” coming to me for my collection. The fella probably started off life a bit bigger than that.
Two scenarios here:
1. Stardate 22630: Captain’s log supplemental: as ordered by Starfleet, The survey ship YEAGER
was able to clean up the last of the near-earth threatening asteroids. The Vulcan high command
says it was the”Logical Thing ” to do. We appreciate the complement.”
2. “I write this from the camp of the Blue/Green People. the Chief does not know I have an ink pen
and paper-those being outlawed by the King Algore the 14th, We are to go to the great Tipi and
fall at the feet of the Stone Profit to pray to Gaia that she somehow averts the giant asteroid
that is heading to the earth”. “The astronomer who had an illegal telescope was beheaded this morning as a sacrifice one for having the telescope and two for making this discovery.” “Now,
we are at the mercy of Gaia and she is unhappy with us!” “I hate going out and having to dress
in my furs as it is Year of our Profit 2022 6 and 30… spring is not due for another 3 weeks…”
OK? whch one will it be?
Many of you have seen Comet Hyakutake with your own eyes which raced by the Earth in March 1996. What was truly worrying here was Comet Hyakutake (discovered by a Japanese armature astronomy buff hence the name) was discovered only 7 weeks earlier! If it had been headed for a collision with Earth, 7 weeks would not have given us time to prepare and implement a successful diversion program.
For asteroids orbiting the sun, the maximum speed at 1 AU, where the earth resides, is about 41 km/sec or ~ 100,000 mph.
They move faster closer to the sun, and slower further away.
For example, the earth (at 1 AU) travels about 30 km/sec in it’s near circular orbit; that 41 km/sec is more likely for a comet on a highly elliptical orbit. If it travels (or is accelerated) beyond that speed, it is no longer bound to the sun and will leave the solar system.
Most asteroids orbit the sun in the same direction as the earth, so approach the earth from behind or the side at speeds between 5 and 30 km/sec; then of course they are accelerated by the earth’s gravity to a minimum speed of 11.2 km/sec, about 25,000 mph before hitting the atmosphere. That’s for an asteroid (or meteoroid) that is traveling at zero speed relative to the earth before gravitational capture.
A few comets, which are in retrograde orbit (and the meteors that come from them) hit the earth head on at a combined speed of nearly 72 km/sec and produce the fastest meteors. They include comet Tempel-Tuttle (parent of the Leonids), Comet Swift-Tuttle (parent of the Perseids) and of course Halley’s comet, parent of the eta-Aquarid andOrionid meteor showers, however there are no known asteroids in such orbits.
The fastest asteroid that is on the current JPL risk page is 2005 EL 70, approaching at 35.5 km/sec. After adding in the effect of the earth’s gravity, it will hit whip past at 37.2 km/sec or 83,214 mph.
While this present asteroid flyby is no danger to earth a meteorite which is 50 meters (150 feet) or more in diameter can wipe out an entire city. A larger meteorite hitting the ocean would cause tsunamis, huge waves which could wipe out all of the coastal cities on the shores of that ocean. A meteorite several kilometers in diameter (more than a mile) would cause global firestorms, trigger massive earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis, and terminate human civilization and most “higher” species of life on Earth. For example, a 10 km (6 mile diameter) meteorite struck the Yucatan region of Mexico 65 million years ago, wiping out many species including the dinosaurs, who had successfully lived on the Earth far longer than have the humans. The Chicxulub crater which resulted is more than 180 km (100 miles) in diameter.
Hmmmmmm….
Which should we be more concerned about and focus our limited dollars on detection and prevention?
1. Space rocks that have a real potential to impact the planet this year, with anywhere from ‘pretty lights’ to ‘extinction event’ devastation effects?
2. The potential addition of 10 parts per million of CO2 to the atmosphere this year?
Hmmmmm….. tough decision…… /sarc off
Although much smaller than (fictional comet) Hamner-Brown, the timing of this is mildly amusing to me, as I am in the middle of Lucifer’s Hammer (Larry Niven / Jerry Pournelle)
It’s a good read – kinda puts a few things in perspective.
When they measure distance, are they doing it from the surface or are they doing it from the center of the earth?
I wonder what the path would have looked like had the moon been on the other side of the earth?
pwl says:
June 24, 2011 at 9:04 am
The idea that the upper stage of a rocket designed to launch a satellite into earth orbit could somehow escape earth’s orbit is, in my opinion, utterly absurd.
“Everyone awake and on deck at that time saw it, a massive rolling ball of flame that pinwheeled its way slowly across the sky from horizon to horizon.”
There are accounts of similar things in Charles Fort’s books. See also Ch. 2 of the Handbook of Unusual Natural Phenomena by William J. Corliss
TonyG says:
June 24, 2011 at 10:13 am
“Although much smaller than (fictional comet) Hamner-Brown, the timing of this is mildly amusing to me, as I am in the middle of Lucifer’s Hammer (Larry Niven / Jerry Pournelle)”
Hot Fudge Sunday!!!!! };>)
Near miss, Grand Teton National Park, 1972.
Jeremy says:
June 24, 2011 at 8:12 am
“You can’t say it’s not at all worrying. A 20 meter asteroid of unknown composition (which this one is) can either be a loose collection of dirt, or a highly dense fragment of an exploded planets core. We have no idea what kind of metal/density this thing has. We can only judge it by light reflected off of it. Now if someone picks up two pieces of earth and asks you which one you want to be hit with, are you going to be satisfied with just looking at those rocks in low illumination to tell you which one would hurt worse? No, you’ll generally want to touch/feel and get some idea of weight and sturdiness. Apollo survived re-entry every time, and it was far less than 20 meters in cross-section. 20 Meters of dense carbon or iron might as well be a nuclear bomb if it entered our atmosphere.”
I would think that its orbital path, velocity and apparent size (unknown reflectivity is probably the problem here) would allow one to estimate its mass and density, given enough data points along its orbit. But that may be the problem since its flyby is Monday.
You can boundary the mass, but density is another matter. Apparent size can also be deceiving. This problem suffers from a similar problem as icebergs, you can only see the parts that are reflecting. Most bodies have some form of rotation, but we still can’t be sure we’re seeing all of it. Also, I don’t trust optical techniques to tell us the composition of any body floating around in space. You’re essentially only getting what the first opaque layer tells you, with no information from the inside. I would call the asteroid classification techniques available to us currently as only good enough to be tools for further research, not a miracle tricorder. We certainly can gather some information, but it’s dangerous to trust it just like it’s dangerous to sail near “small” icebergs.
Every six years? Ay, caramba!
Had we been prepared, this would have been a great opportunity to test our asteroid defense system. Send a rocket up with a nuke, set to explode abeam and inside the curve. If the asteroid isn’t destroyed, the near side would vaporize, generating a thrust that would deflect the asteroid’s path.
Have some fun playing with the calculator here:
http://www.purdue.edu/impactearth
It shows that if it does hit, depending on various parameters:
“The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 37300 meters = 122000 ft
Large fragments strike the surface and may create a crater strewn field. A more careful treatment of atmospheric entry is required to accurately estimate the size-frequency distribution of meteoroid fragments and predict the number and size of craters formed.
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 1.1 x 10^3 years “
Whew that was close! Could have ruined a perfectly good weekend.
I guess if it’s going to hit, Monday would be good time, right after my morning coffee.
Well, here is the certitude (Thank you Mr Tweet for bringing that word back from obscurity). Eventually.. not maybe, not probably, but eventually, the Earth will get whacked.
Just think about all that money that could go towards finding these short notice rocks with at least enough time to evacuate a city or a region that could catch these rogue fly balls.
But no… got to grub every last dime in order to push the Evirozealot Cult agenda.
Here is an interesting website that lets you predict the effects of various impact events.
http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/cgi-bin/crater.cgi?dist=100&distanceUnits=1&diam=10&diameterUnits=1&pdens=&pdens_select=8000&vel=17&velocityUnits=1&theta=65&wdepth=&wdepthUnits=1&tdens=2500
I see Dr Burns has posted one too.
Send a rocket up with a nuke, set to explode abeam and inside the curve. If the asteroid isn’t destroyed, the near side would vaporize, generating a thrust that would deflect the asteroid’s path.
You never studied.
Ronald Quincy: “Imagine a firecracker in the palm of your hand. You set it off, what happens? You burn your hand, right? You close your fist around the same firecracker and set it off. Your wife’s gonna be opening your ketchup bottles the rest of your life.”
-The Armageddon Prophesy, 1998
Seriously, though, nukes are designed to hit a fixed target in a ballistic trajectory. Hitting a target moving at 100,000 mph with a big, clunky liquid fueled rocket is next to impossible with current technology. Even if you had maneuvering fuel left after you got there. And the more fuel you have when you get there, the earlier you have to launch because you’ll have to get there slower. And remember, there’s no air in space, so no shock wave. You’d have to get pretty close for the expanding mass of the explosion itself to appreciably move a big rock.
No, I don’t think it’s possible today, nor in the forseeable future.
But what do I know? I’m a CPA.
when i was going to college in the 80’s i belonged to ” Final Frontier” & ” The Planetary Society ” as well as studying physics & astronomy. all i can say is that we’ve come a very long way in locating & tracking asteroids & other objects in space. the projects & missions currently engaged in by nasa were no more than fiction back then. Planetary Society president Carl Sagan wrote wonderful books on this very sort of thing. the problems involved in locating & tracking anything in space are daunting at best. it only looks easy in the movies. the amazing thing is that they can actually do much of it at all. the solution to why nasa doesn’t spend more time & money on this problem will come when “you the people” convince your elected officials that its needed. then many at nasa who have dreamed of nothing their entire lives but space exploration & discovery would be thrilled to develope a better, more accurate, more thorough system. remember its the politicians who decide how much nasa spends & on what
even a 5 meter oblect would be catastrophic if it was made of the right stuff. like try anti-mater.
at which point ALL other issues on earth would be moot.
of course we wouldn’t be able to determine that it was anti-mater just by looking at it, since the photon (light) is it’s own anti-particle anyways. even a golf ball sized meteorite of anti-mater could be major.
so quality not quantity is the all important factor when determining how dangerous a near earth object might be.
better we be hit by a mountain sized fluff-ball than a grapefruit sized chunk of brown dwarf.