Venice to be hit hard by Climate Change? Never mind

I guess they won’t need any more “Green Economic Conferences” there the like this:

Where they say:

“Venice is particularly hard hit by climate change and this conference is an attempt to provide solutions that various parts of Italy are experiencing under global environmental change.”

Venice-geconference-michelemarch31  (source here)


Venice to suffer fewer storm surges

Reference: 11/55

Venice – the City of Dreams – may have one less nightmare to deal with following a finding that the frequency of extreme storm surge events generated by Adriatic Sea tempests could fall by about 30 per cent by 2100.
10 June 2011

A team of international scientists led by CSIRO’s Dr Alberto Troccoli studied atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean region to assess climate impacts through changes in storm surge frequency in Venice – a World Heritage-listed city built on 117 small islands and considered vulnerable to high sea levels (locally known as Acqua Alta).

Dr Troccoli said predictions of such extreme and small-scale events are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons.

“The survival of Venice and its lagoon is seriously questioned under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global sea level rise scenarios and the results of this study, published in the journal Climatic Change, emphasise the need for location-by-location studies to determine coastal flooding impacts.

“While some assessment of the vulnerability of Venice to extreme high-water events have been carried out in the past, possible future changes in storm surge occurrences critical to flooding events remain largely unexplored. It is important to understand how these events will evolve since a moderate to strong storm surge event is required to cause serious flooding.

Venezia, Acqua alta
Image via Wikipedia

“We found that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30 per cent by the end of the 21st century which would leave the pattern of flooding largely unaltered under 21st Century climate simulations,” Dr Troccoli said.

“Our paper presents an alternative analysis for storm surges and we believe our findings could have important implications on the way future storm surge and high tide events are interpreted”– Dr Alberto Troccoli, CSIRO

The research team – from CSIRO, the University of Padova and the University of Reading – used data from observations of storms, analysis of atmospheric and surface conditions, and climate scenario simulations. Storm surges in the northern part of the Adriatic Sea are driven by the passage of deep low-pressure systems, which cause sea level pressure gradients and strong Sirocco (South-Easterly) winds along the Adriatic Sea. These forces combine to push water into the northern end of the basin where Venice is located.

Dr Troccoli said an implication of the finding is that alterations in extreme tidal levels under climate change must be considered on a location-by-location basis in spite of the projected increase in global sea level.

“Thus the projected change in the storm surge contribution, combined with the projected change of mean water levels in the Adriatic Sea indicates that tidal flooding events might not be exacerbated over the current century, with potential beneficial consequences for the conservation of the city.

“Our paper presents an alternative analysis for storm surges and we believe our findings could have important implications on the way future storm surge and high tide events are interpreted,” he said.

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June 10, 2011 3:11 pm

(*) Venice, Italy, not Venice, CA

June 10, 2011 3:26 pm

No Venice, the sea level is not rising. That is you sinking into the mud.

June 10, 2011 3:29 pm

is that the term to be now “…global environmental change” ? no more climate disruption ?

Robert of Ottawa
June 10, 2011 3:34 pm

Over the past thirty years, I have occassionally flew the Atlantic, passing over Greenland. I saw it today for the first time; here are the thoughts I had:
1. Boy those rocks poking up free of the ice are actually mountain peaks.
2. That looks like a real cold desert down there.
3. In the “vallies”, which are in effect glaciers, there are clouds.
4. Greenland looks a lot closer, perhaps this is a very high plateau.

Grumpy Old Man UK
June 10, 2011 3:36 pm

Venice has been sinking into the Adriatic for centuries, ever since it’s founding in c450AD, a combination of being built on marshland and the silting up of the lagoon. Global warming has, apparently, contributed to a 23cm rise in sea level over the past 110 years. Research indicates that the other main factor is subsidence due to excessive ground water withdrawal, but it is not clear to me how you can have excessive ground water withdrawal in a lagoon which is open to the Adriatic and fed by a river. No doubt someone will instruct me in this matter.
The people of Venice have traditionally dealt with the situation by building another storey as the lowest level sinks below the water. more modern solutions have been mooted, Their efficacy and possibility of success I leave to others to assess.

June 10, 2011 3:41 pm

Venice has been battling the Adriatic Sea for over 1,500 years – long before hysterical AGW deadbeats found a way to make a living off taxpayers. “A city which is regularly flooded is not a viable city,” Anna Summers-Cox of the Venice In Peril Fund told BBC World Service’s One Planet programme. “People in Venice are living in a state of denial.” Venice has always been slowly sinking. Over the last 1,000 years, it has sunk by around seven centimeters for every century, but recent reports have stated that in the last century alone, the city of Venice has lowered by around 24 centimeters.
That ain’t Global Warming schmucks – that is if one recalls the biblical story of the foolish man who built his house on a bed of sand. Duh. Truth is, there was a time — from the 1920’s until 1970 — when the city was sinking at an alarming rate. During that period, the city lost an astounding 10 centimeters in height. Developers found a convenient solution in the deep aquifers that run under the region, and began drilling wells and pumping out groundwater at a furious pace.
The net effect was like letting the air out of your tires, or perhaps more aptly, draining your waterbed. It wasn’t until the late 60’s that hydrologists put one and one together, slapped their foreheads, and sounded the alarm. You think?

Mike McMillan
June 10, 2011 3:44 pm

Been there, done that. Venice has been sinking since they built the place, Previously they just built new buildings on top of the old as they sank into the lagoon, but now that it’s a World Heritage city, they can’t do that, so sheza goin’ under.
At the rate locals have been leaving the city, there won’t be anyone there by 2100 anyway.

R. Shearer
June 10, 2011 4:04 pm

Venice has been flooding for at least a thousand years.

June 10, 2011 4:13 pm

Mike McMillan:
PBS had a special on Venice some years back, On building had the foundations of something like seven earlier buildings under it! The inhabitants just kept building on top of the old buildings as the land sunk,

Theo Goodwin
June 10, 2011 4:14 pm

“Dr Troccoli said an implication of the finding is that alterations in extreme tidal levels under climate change must be considered on a location-by-location basis in spite of the projected increase in global sea level.”
Get this man an appointment with Al Gore and all Warmista.

Ken Mueller
June 10, 2011 4:16 pm

That is a very nice looking blonde in “a little black dress” in the foreground.
[Reply: Off topic! …Nevermind. ~dbs]

Tom T
June 10, 2011 4:25 pm

I live near Venice and it isn’t sinking. Well that is Venice Florida.

mike sphar
June 10, 2011 4:36 pm

Must be tough on the rat population.

June 10, 2011 4:55 pm

Is this the part of global weirding where there are less “events”…………………………..

June 10, 2011 4:57 pm

Apart from being built on mud, I saw a program which also blamed the wake from mega cruize ships for disrupting foundations. Seems they are a bit bigger than the gondolas.

Dave Wendt
June 10, 2011 4:59 pm

Maybe we could volunteer to send some of our much maligned drillers over there with their despised “fraccing” technology and they could pump enough mud in under the old girl to boost her up a couple of feet to give her a small stay of execution.

Geoff Sherrington
June 10, 2011 5:09 pm

What in Heavens is the IPCC playing at, trying to meddle in the affairs of the ancient settlement of Venice? What is Australia’s CSIRO doing there, apart from perhaps getting pigeon dropped in th plaza? This is a very good example of how to spend fun money belonging to others while people in less luxurious locales are dying of starvation and disease and warfare in short and brutal lives.
The IPCC gets its money from your taxes, but you have no control over how it is spent. Have you forgotten the USA rally cry “No taxation without representation”?
This is one of the worst junket examples I’ve encountered – an example to spread far and wide about how far the IPCC is off with the fairies, CSIRO at al in the caravan.
Venice, known to be subsiding through poor foundation geology, is about the last place to choose for studying sea level change. You need a location with a fixed datum, so far as can be established from today’s less-than-perfect instruments.
Do we next hear that “vertical” wil be studied using the leaning tower of Pisa as a datum?

June 10, 2011 5:14 pm

Anyone who has been to Venice knows that it was sinking and the sea level was static. The Italians have been working on this for decades and one can see geological and engineering displays etc. in museums. As the aquifer was drawn on, the land receded. I believe it is now stabilized.

June 10, 2011 5:20 pm

The heavier Venice gets the more Venice sinks. That’s why it has continuously needed reinforcements to its pillars and foundation. And that has been an ongoing management for so long that you could blame christianity for its sinking.

Pat Frank
June 10, 2011 5:58 pm

So, Geoff, can you let us know whether this story upsets you, or not? 🙂

Matt S
June 10, 2011 5:58 pm

A study says that storm surges might not increase and you all hear that there is no warming and it is not a problem. Sort of like a dermatologist saying you don’t have skin cancer and you hear that your heart is in great shape.

Cecil Coupe
June 10, 2011 6:40 pm

Fewer storm surges? This paper will never be cited in the next IPCC report.

June 10, 2011 7:28 pm

OT. Over at FOX: Vast corruption in UN’s Environment Program!
“The United Nations Environment Program, the flagship for environmental consciousness and creation of a new era of “global environmental governance,” doesn’t know how its money is spent or even who it may be dealing with when it comes to hundreds of corporate, public and non-governmental partners that are “key” to fulfilling its mission, according to a confidential internal study obtained by Fox News.”
Read more:

June 10, 2011 7:37 pm

I am curious. Most of the Med has very small tidal variance, about 10 to 20 cm:
What makes Venice have tides of a metre or more, exactly? Or is this not tidal (as the article seems to indicate very strongly)?

Frank K.
June 10, 2011 8:21 pm

CSIRO…hmmm…do you mean THIS CSIRO?
CSIRO staff threaten to strike
Posted Thu Mar 3, 2011 5:33pm AEDT
Leading Australian scientists at the CSIRO have threatened to strike as early as next week after failing to win a pay rise.
Industrial action was backed by 91 per cent of CSIRO staff association members who voted in a protected action ballot after pay talks stalled.
Staff association spokesman Sam Popovski said the union wants CSIRO executives to come back to the table for further negotiations in good faith.
“Industrial action is not something CSIRO staff contemplate lightly,” Mr Popovski said.
“But management needs to understand we are very determined to fight off this substandard deal because it threatens to undermine the world-class work of the CSIRO.”
Staff at the national science and research centre are seeking a 4.6 per cent pay rise.

So, not only were Australians being asked to fork over carbon taxes, their own government scientists were attempting to get a fat pay raise in the middle of a global recession!
(BTW – they ended up getting a 3.5 percent pay raise…three cheers for SHARED SACRIFICE FOR THE GOOD OF THE PLANET!!).

June 10, 2011 9:09 pm

Ken Mueller says:
June 10, 2011 at 4:16 pm
That is a very nice looking blonde in “a little black dress” in the foreground.

Anthony is going for T&A. (my apologies to Anthony, it was just to easy!)

Jim D
June 10, 2011 9:26 pm

Reduced storm surges are consistent with increased droughts that were projected for the Mediterranean region, so maybe it is not a surprise.

Elizabeth (not the Queen)
June 10, 2011 9:32 pm

Oh please, just stop the modelling insanity!

June 10, 2011 9:40 pm

In general one supposes that river deltas form where rivers meet the ocean. The deposited sediment one presumes to be in balance with geological subsidence. Venice is essentially doomed.
However this is what makes Venice so romantic. It has been doomed for centuries, since the route round the cape of good hope was discovered. Ever since, the paint has been fading on what was the richest city in Europe, if not the world.
Somehow, I do not think a millimeter per year of supposedly anthropogenic sea level rise will finish it off.

June 10, 2011 11:35 pm

Nah! … its all the extra super size people tromping around the place.

June 10, 2011 11:38 pm

Whew, that must be a great relief for John Cleese that there won’t be MORE of THOSE EFFING GONDOLAS!

June 11, 2011 12:34 am

This strike at CSRIO is a good one 🙂
My professor once said, when a strike at my university was impeding:
“You know, during strike one does opposite to what he used to do in normal time. Therefore I expect you to work extremely hard and dilligently during the income”.
They got the rise (CSRIO) – maybe someone was afreid that they woud do just this, eg, have a hard look at the real data 😉

Martin Brumby
June 11, 2011 12:36 am

Venice, without doubt, is one of the most beautiful cities on Earth.
For a fraction of the money being shovelled into the cAGW scam it could be preserved for future generations to enjoy and marvel at.
It is notable that, yet again (in fact almost continuously), hoardes of Hyperthermalist doom mongers are flying to some of the most attractive tourist destinations in the World, to stay in luxury hotels at the taxpayer’s expense and pontificate about how the plebs should be denied the pleasure of a holiday with their families. And impoverished and denied of a job, of course.

Mike McMillan
June 11, 2011 1:49 am

mike sphar says:June 10, 2011 at 4:36 pm
Must be tough on the rat population.

I think the rats have already abandoned ship.
The building to the right in both photos is the Doge’s Palace, which usually get missed on the quicky tours. It’s well worth giving up a gondola ride to go through and see what it was like when Venice ruled the world. The Bridge of Sighs and Casanova’s prison cell are attached.
The British artist JMW Turner loved Venice for the quality of light, filtered as it is through a sea mist. You can see the same thing today as in his paintings. Lovely city, doomed, but it’s been doomed for a millennium.
There have been proposals to put tide gates at the lagoon entrances to stop the flooding, but that creates a problem. Venice has no sewage system. It has always depended on the tides to flush out the lagoon, so tide gates would definitely change the “atmosphere” around town.

June 11, 2011 1:51 am

I thought they had halted the accelerated sinking of venice by stopping gas extraction in the lagoon….

Patrick Davis
June 11, 2011 2:12 am

Even though there is substantial evidence Venice is SINKING, due to various factors, and has been for a significant amount of time, it will be used by the alarmists as the pin-up poster girl of AGW and proof sea levels are rising. *sigh*

June 11, 2011 3:33 am

Venice is doomed!!!
News just in today…………….rate of sea level rise still flat.

John Marshall
June 11, 2011 3:58 am

Every Geologist will tell you that with climate change comes an environmental change. 4.6 Ba of history can’t be wrong.
Climate change is natural and unstoppable. (Politicians please note).

June 11, 2011 4:04 am

As others have mentioned Venice has been subsiding. Parts of it were from re-claimed marshland which lies below sea level!…/2005EO230001.shtml

Geoff Sherrington
June 11, 2011 4:54 am

Pat Frank says: June 10, 2011 at 5:58 pm
So, Geoff, can you let us know whether this story upsets you, or not? 🙂
Pat, Just take it as a small clearing of the throat before the solo tenor starts con brio into “Largo al factotum” (Figaro, Figaro), or similar.

Bruce Cobb
June 11, 2011 5:03 am

“Green” economics is the new Red(d):
“The world is hotting up and we have wipped out many other species who might have been able to help us! Over consumption and over use of the worlds resources is now in urgent need of correction. This means a complete rethink of how we use the planet our home our house hold and also the relationship of dominion and mastery- a complete false dawn. We are part of the earth and we risk everything if we forget that, and dont do our household maintenance and housework. Economics is part of that- but only a subset.
Economics is going to have to be completely re written. We think that life style changes will be the only answer- doing Different Things- Differently! – Rather than messing about with redefining or measurement or trading or technical fixes any other kind of fudging – the world has changed- and we need to keep up with it- that means we have to change what we do and how we do it !”

Ah, yes, “lifestyle changes”. As imposed by Big Green Brother. When they say “we”, of course they mean excluding them, the Chosen Ones. They will still be free to run around the world to have expensive vacations conferences deciding who gets punished for their evil Carbon sins, and who benefits. Gulags with free tattooing for those who don’t go along with their program, of course.
Warning: have barf bag ready before reading their 10 “Key Values” below.
10 Key Values of Green Economics
1. To provision for the needs all people everywhere, other species, nature, the planet and its systems, all as beneficiaries of economics transactions, not as one-off inputs.
2. To reinforce an underpinning of social and environmental justice, tolerance and no prejudice and creating quality of life for everyone, including current and all future generations, and regardless of age.
3. To ensure the recognition and respect of other species’ rights. To end the current mass extinction of species and ensure the survival of Earth’s biodiversity.
4. To create an economic system which advances non-violence and the inclusion of all people everywhere, regardless of special needs or special ability. To ensure that all nations have equal access to power and resources on a finite planet, and that local people to have control over their own destiny and resources. To eradicate poverty, increase life expectancy, human welfare and real well-being in the least developed countries.
5. To guarantee gender equity in all activities, educating, respecting, empowering women and minorities, and ensuring that all people valued and respected equally.
6. To end high mass consumption and the current overshoot of Earth’s resources, returning human civilisation to the comfortable bounds of nature in its original climatic conditions. To choose lifestyle change over techno-fixes and eco-technology, lowering individual carbon usage, living lightly on the earth.
7. Changing how economics is done: from being an abstract mathematical exercise to embracing the real world we all live in, recognizing that we are all concerned as stakeholders.
8. Climate change prevention, adaptation, mitigation. Protecting the most vulnerable from risk. Ensuring the future of small island states. Quickly reducing carbon per capita globally to 2 tonnes in the next 5 years and zero soon after. Limiting and reversing climate change. Moving to renewable energy sources.
9. Future-proofing economics to increase its suitability for the 21st century, solving the current economic downturn and widespread uncertainty. Creating and nurturing an economy based on sharing, rather than greed and profit.
10. Completely reshaping and reforming economics to do all the above.

Billy Liar
June 11, 2011 3:14 pm

Bruce Cobb says:
June 11, 2011 at 5:03 am
I see from there website they like to jet around the world to enviro-conferences. Doesn’t sit well with their sixth commandment does it?

June 11, 2011 4:32 pm

Have a look at Eat a cow to save the planet and Stop Stop signs concerning some some of the greenocrites false ramblings!

Geoff Sherrington
June 12, 2011 1:44 am

Bruce Cobb
Thank you for the chuckle from the new 10 Commandments of the Green whackos. Particularly queer when one reads “To guarantee gender equity in all activities” when many people are unwilling or unable to state their gender. I guess that means their Nanny State has to make laws to reveal your gender, replete with new definitions and an army of enforcers who are counted as “new jobs created”.

June 12, 2011 2:08 am

As a lesbian trapped in a male body, I can sympathize. And Mrs Smokey is
tri-sexual. She’ll try anything!

Patrick Davis
June 12, 2011 3:16 am

“Bruce Cobb says:
June 11, 2011 at 5:03 am
“Green” economics is the new Red(d):
“The world is hotting up and we have wipped out many other species who might have been able to help us!”
These people are fseriously dangerous. Anyone with enough free time to boil an egg can learn that over 90% of all species that ever existed on this 3rd rock from the sun went extinct long before ugly bags of mostly water evolved into humans.

June 13, 2011 8:20 am

Couldn’t be that they built it on a swamp, I suppose? No? Didn’t think so…

June 13, 2011 8:55 am

Mueller says:
June 10, 2011 at 4:16 pm: My wife says it makes her butt look big.

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