From NASA Goddard- Atlantic hurricane season sticks to the calendar: System 93L
NOTE: I’ve posted the most current image below, the system has already crossed the Florida peninsula and is now in the Gulf of Mexico – Anthony
Hurricane season starts today, June 1, in the Atlantic Ocean and the tropics are paying attention to the calendar. The GOES-13 satellite has been capturing images of a low pressure area that formed off the North Carolina coast yesterday and is now located off of the northeastern Florida coast.
The low pressure area, also known as System 93L appears somewhat elongated, almost rounded area of clouds on the satellite imagery today, stretching from southwest to northeast. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite called GOES-13 has been capturing imagery of the low since it formed. The visible image from June 1 at 1445 UTC (10:45 a.m. EDT) has some shadows in the middle of the storm, which indicate that there are some towering, strong thunderstorms near the circulation center that are casting shadows onto the lower thunderstorms.
NASA’s GOES Project, located at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. creates imagery and animations of GOES satellite data. The GOES series of satellites are operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. To see the latest animation of the GOES satellite imagery in “Hurricane Alley” in the Atlantic Ocean visit: http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov and click on “Hurricane Alley HDTV” on the top right side of the NASA GOES webpage.
At 8 a.m. EDT, the center of the low was about 200 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida and was moving west-southwest near 20 mph. It is forecast to move over northern Florida later today toward the Florida Panhandle. It has a medium chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season’s first tropical depression in the next 24 hours.
The low does mean some scattered strong thunderstorms are in the forecast for northeastern Florida and isolated thunderstorms in southeastern Georgia today. The National Weather Service noted that some of the thunderstorms could contain wind gusts to 50 mph, small hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rainfall.
In addition to the threat of severe thunderstorms, the low is also creating rip currents and building swells along the eastern Florida beaches. For updates, visit NASA’s Hurricane Web Page at: www.nasa.gov/hurricane
If the low does intensify into a tropical storm it would receive the name Arlene. However, it must first reach tropical depression status. Even if it doesn’t become a depression it still means severe weather for northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia today.
UPDATED Image:
Here’s the latest from NHC:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED WHILE IT MOVES OVER LAND TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE ONCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
Oh boy !! A low pressure system.
I can almost smell the CO2.
Wouldn’t this be a record for the westernmost birth area for a North Atlantic tropical storm?
“it still means severe weather for northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia today.”
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Not only have they hyped every storm and rain drop as “unprecedented”…….
…now they are hyping what we would normally call welcome rain
We get stupid squall lines stronger than that.
I just wish you would have told me yesterday. I could have started panicking then.
/sarc
And on the micro-scale a tornado has been reported in Springfield, MA.
Starts for Central Pacific also.
As of a few minutes ago – composite RADAR imagery showed kind of a ‘tail’ of precip (with a few T-storm cells resident and ahead) extends from the mass of the storm to NNE across the FL panhandle with the mass well out into the GOM west of central FL …
.
Anthony, I’m a 25yr in the field meteorologist and have been tracking this thing and it began as an MCS over the Great Lakes about 48hrs. The MCS fell apart but a circulation remained. The circulation rounded the periphery of the ridge and re-ignited over the Gulf Stream and has become what it is today over FL. Amazing!
typo….”about 48hrs ago.”
there…
Anyone read this from Cuba:
“Cubans batten down the hatches for ‘intense’ hurricanes”
They seem to think hurricanes are becoming more intense and that is a result of global warming.
Latitude says:
June 1, 2011 at 2:58 pm
“We get stupid squall lines stronger than that.”
Amen, brother! Total non-event.
“Even if it doesn’t become a depression it still means severe weather for northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia today”
Thank God. Finally some rain.
tom s says:
June 1, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Thanks – I saw it on a radar loop on TV this morning trucking SW, and wondered what it was and where it came from. Started in the Great Lakes – really bizzare, at least to me.
For those of us unfamiliar with the MCS term:
The NHC says (I downcased it):
…Special feature…
An Atlantic Ocean 1013 mb low pressure center is just to the east of Daytona Beach Florida…Moving west-southwestward about 20 mph. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers and thunderstorms accompany this low center within 60 nm of the center in the southwestern semicircle. That basically means that the precipitation is arriving first in advance of where the actual center of circulation is. Other rainshowers and possible thunderstorms cover florida from 28n to 29n from the Atlantic Ocean coast to the Gulf of Mexico coast. Significant development of this system is not anticipated while it moves over land today and tonight. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for development in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible in north-central Florida through tonight.
40 months ago I produced a forecast maps for today that shows the precipitation from this little disturbance, within a 100 miles of where it is today.
http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx
At the time I did not think of it as a hurricane, and I still do not, but there it is any way, call it what they will does not change it in reality.
Fred from Canuckistan says:
June 1, 2011 at 2:54 pm
Oh boy !! A low pressure system.
“I can almost smell the CO2.”
Yeah, I bet it parks itself over Orlando and drinks in all of the CO2-rich tailpipe emissions from those huge RVs and monster trucks at Disney World until it becomes an uncontrollable superstorm!
/cagw
Holy crap! I need to get my hurricane supplies together,,hmmm let’s see, 3 months supply of beans, 10 fifths of whiskey, 50 candles, 20 cases of beer, 10 flashlights, 2 generators, 200 rounds 12 guage shotgun shells, buckshot of course………50 batteries, radio, ok whew I am ready..
Wasn’t much of anything by the time it got to Sarasota. It might have been worse in Tampa. Then again we have had several storms this spring that were quite bad in Tampa, but not much here.
They’ve already cranked up the scare stories down here in Houston. The news is all over the NOAA hurricane forecast.
This may be the worst year ever for hurricanes! /sarc
Bigger stuff brewing in the western Caribbean. This year analogs to others that started early and often. While this system was an oddball, they happen like that at this time of year, in the western part of the basin. Leftovers from frontal systems and what-not.
Either way, all of the information indicates that this will be a busy year, whether or not they get intense is often a case of shear only. With the moderating La Nina, conditions may well be favorable.
There have never been 3 consecutive years without a US hurricane landfall. This is year number 3. Nothing to do with CO2, everything to do with the numbers and getting prepared based on the information that is available.
Richard Holle says:
June 1, 2011 at 5:28 pm
You missed the tornadoes, rain, and hail in Massachusetts today, though.
Highs in the 60s? I think I reached 90 in NH.
Richard Holle says:
June 1, 2011 at 5:28 pm
You missed the tornadoes, rain, and hail in Massachusetts today, though.
Highs in the 60s? I reached 90 in NH.
This “storm” passed right over my condo this morning and all we got was some much needed gentle rain. You have to be extremely desperate to categorize this as a “tropical storm”! Maybe that is the only way they can make their predictions.
Bill
Ric Werme says:
June 1, 2011 at 10:11 pm
Thanks for the feed back, I will try to be more aware of the pitfalls of conformational bias.
The maps that my method generate are the averages of three past cycles applied to this current cycle I do not EXPECT them to repeat 100% or even 50%, when I first started, I did not expect anything, I just wanted to see what shakes out through the filter.
Lots of the time they will reveal patterns that are not apparent 30 days earlier, some of the time they are right on for most of the area with local and regional differences. I am not trying to say nature repeats exactly, just that it does repeat better than chance would suggest.
There is still the outer planetary effects that ARE NOT compensated for in my method yet. Past outer planetary influences that are or are not represented this cycle are uncompensated for, and remain as long term noise pulses to be filtered out then re-added at the appropriate current cycle timing.
I am just one person with an idea on how to solve a problem, that is too big to handle alone.
In Met. classes I was taught a rule-of-thumb:
June, too soon;
July, stand by;
August, blow-it-must;
September, remember;
October, blow’s over.
Just for SW N. Atlantic and Caribbean, though.
And of course there are exceptions to the rule.
Maurizio Morabito says:
June 1, 2011 at 2:55 pm
> Wouldn’t this be a record for the westernmost birth area for a North Atlantic tropical storm?
No. Early season storms generally form in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. I haven’t tried to find the westernmost.
Also, this system is not a tropical storm, merely an interesting area that is being monitored. This morning’s NHC report says it’s weakening.
Ric Werme says:
June 1, 2011 at 10:11 pm
“Highs in the 60s? I think I reached 90 in NH”
We’re supposed to get down to the low 40s (!) tonight in western NH, thanks to the passage of the cold front . Brrrr.
As hurricane season is underway, the most important thing people can do is be prepared. I was searching through hurricane preparedness sites to find some information for myself, and came across this website called http://www.hurricanecenter.com. They provide a ton of information, and also have a link to another company called “1800prepare.com” that sells survival and emergency kits for individuals, pets, homes, offices, etc.
Watching the news this morning about the up coming hurricane season the reporter mentioned the number of named storms, how many will be hurricanes and how many might be strong ones then said since the water temperature was 4 degrees higher then normal this would fuel strong storms. Where did that 4 degrees come from? It was a CBS feed.
Cloudy , windy but no rain on the coast of Georgia . Too bad – we could use the rain .