Finally, a scientist gets it, speaks out about it, and a reporter in a major media outlet publishes the words that say in even stronger terms what I said last Thursday about Dr. Richard Muller’s testimony before Congress.
From the Los Angeles Times, the last place I’d expect to see this:
Thorne said scientists who contributed to the three main studies — by NOAA, NASA and Britain’s Met Office — welcome new peer-reviewed research. But he said the Berkeley team had been “seriously compromised” by publicizing its work before publishing any vetted papers.
– Peter Thorne, National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
Here’s the full article at the LA Times
Even Trenberth isn’t too sure about it:
Kevin Trenberth, who heads the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a university consortium, said he was “highly skeptical of the hype and claims” surrounding the Berkeley effort. “The team has some good people,” he said, “but not the expertise required in certain areas, and purely statistical approaches are naive.”
Dr. Roger Pielke Senior has this to say about the article:
There is an informative article in the Los Angeles Times by Margot Roosevelt titled
Critics’ review unexpectedly supports scientific consensus on global warming.
While the title of the article does not indicate it [headlines are usually not chosen by the reporter], the article itself is quite interesting.
Severl issues with the preliminary presentation of results by Richard Muller are brought out, even by Richard, but also by others in climate science. These include the following excerpts from the article.
“Thorne said scientists who contributed to the three main studies — by NOAA, NASA and Britain’s Met Office — welcome new peer-reviewed research. But he said the Berkeley team had been “seriously compromised” by publicizing its work before publishing any vetted papers.”
Kevin Trenberth, who heads the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a university consortium, said he was “highly skeptical of the hype and claims” surrounding the Berkeley effort. “The team has some good people,” he said, “but not the expertise required in certain areas, and purely statistical approaches are naive.”
Even Richard Muller was quoted as
“Although in his testimony Muller praised the “integrity” of previous studies, he said estimates of human-caused warming need to be “improved.” And despite his preliminary praise for earlier studies, he said further data-crunching “could bring our current agreement into disagreement.”
The one issue with the article, however, is that it ends with erroneous information on other climate metrics by Peter Thorne [see my experiences [documented on my weblog] with Peter Thorne to get an idea of his biases). Peter Thorne was quoted as saying
Other scientists noted that temperature is only one factor in climate change. “Even if the thermometer had never been invented, the evidence is there from deep ocean changes, from receding glaciers, from rising sea levels and receding sea ice and spring snow cover,” Thorne said.
“All the physical indicators are consistent with a warming world. There is no doubt the trend of temperature is upwards since the early 20th century. And that trend is accelerating.”
I will use just one example from his list of climate metrics to show that Peter Thorne is misleading the reporter, I have reproduced below the current plots of lower tropospheric temperature anomalies. The trend of temperatures using that climate metric is NOT accelerating, and, indeed, has not even been positive for over 12 years!
From http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html.
Peter Thorne now works with Tom Karl and Tom Peterson at NCDC so we can expect more such disinformation on climate metrics from him in coming weeks and months. The rest of the article by Margot Roosevelt is quite informative.
Sunspot activity, planetary rotational speed, tidal amplitudes, ocean salinity, and a number of other global environment parameters, do change, and seem to be cyclical in nature. We directly observe only the most recent portions of such cycles, and deduce the rest from observations such as tree-ring growth, ice layer formation, and other phenomena.
I think the question of, “How do we stop or slow questionable man-made climatic change?” is, at least at this time, counterproductive.
I think the more important scientific question is, “If we are on the cusp of a possible climatic change (warmer, cooler, saltier, fresher) – regardless of the cause – what steps should we recommend to make the best of it?” Should we prepare to plant rice in Siberia? Corn in the Sahara? What is likely to be coming, and what do we do to adapt?
I think the term you are looking for is unequivocal hypocrite. If he were a member of an internet forum, he would just be the local jester. The NY Times is the only reason he gets mentioned in other circles and then only because he disgorges what he is told to. If he did have half a brain, he would realize how stupid he looks and sounds.
Mike says:
April 4, 2011 at 7:19 am
“The planet is warming. The only plausible cause is the rise of net GHG emissions from human activities. The only real question is what should we do?”
Let’s see: Human activity produces only about 3% (2.9% – 4%) of atmospheric CO2. Dr. Roy Spencer has shown that the CO2 – temperature relationship results in a negative feedback. Water vapor with more efficient long-wave IR absorption and greater concentration (1% – 4%) has significantly more warming effect. Apart from other factors, these three, taken alone, strongly suggest an answer to Mike’s question. What should we do? How about nothing?
E.M.Smith says:
April 4, 2011 at 12:25 pm
So what is the trend? That fit to the total of all data? Or those two flat segments with an offset? For most markets, you don’t want to buy that “blow of top” and you also don’t want to buy that ‘no longer extant trend’ as you will not make any money. You want to spot a ‘regime change’ and hop on it, but get off at the first reversal…
My point? In many ways The Worst Possible method of understanding what is going on in data subject to ‘regime changes’ is to fit a trend line to all the data… and climate is very much subject to ‘regime changes’ such as the PDO shift; yet ‘climate science’ with great regularity fits a Least Squares Trend Line and calls it truth…
====================================================
When I traded short term, I always looked for companies with a long history of a flat trend with discernible peaks and troughs with a regular intervals. They’re hard to find, but you only need a few. Get in after the trough, get out before the peak.
I like your analogy, because when I look at the temp graphs, its the first thing that pops in my mind. Using the method I described, right now would be a wait and watch period.
To best illustrate the step change, here’s a multi-trend graph using the RSS data
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1979/plot/rss/from:1979/to:1990/trend/plot/rss/from:1990/to:2001/trend/plot/rss/from:2001/trend
Note, because of ease I used WFT, but he hasn’t switched to the latest version yet, so the data stops in Nov of last year. The trend is actually negative from 2001 now. In other words, if the temps were a stock and we bought into it since 2001, we would have lost money. Oh, wait……….
Don’t forget it was Bzerkly that did the study showing that painting roofs white would reduce global warming….
…the only problem was
When you run their numbers, all – and more – of the temperature increase could be accounted for by roofs.
“It is a bit like me telling you what the exact grade my new students will end up with in three years time, and I haven’t even finished interviewing them all yet, so I’m not really certain who they’ll be!
If fact that’s a damned good analogy.”
I would like Dr Muller to use his obvious time travelling ability to let me know which horse will win the Grand National horse race for the next few years.
@Dave Wendt says:
April 4, 2011 at 11:19 am
Very interesting. But who earns money on such policy?
In EU with those types of regulations there’s always policymakers earning lots of money on it, for instance soon every truck driver in EU needs to have yet a new certificate or else they can’t work as a truck driver in commercial trucking, so in one swell swoop the companies doing the “teaching” to get the certificate earns a couple of thousand per head for a few days’ course and for some mysterious reason certain policymakers themselves and the policymakers’s lobbyists authoring certain policy ends up with stock options or what not. It was the same a few years back when everyone operating forklifts had to have certificates, plural, to operate each and every type of forklift they were hired to operate. They even tried it in the nineties with that ridiculous driving license for computers and the idea was that you had to have one or else you couldn’t operate a computer at work, but they had to scrap the or else part.
So, essentially, every time a large population has to pay to work some other companies earns more than a few pennies, and IMHO I think it is naught but the payers right to have the right to know exactly who those earners are.
PhilJourdan ,
I agree completely . In fact , I have plenty more to say on the subject of Paul Krugman , but I’ll let it rest . Well , except to say that at some time in the past he might have been considered an embarrassment to the Times and a disgrace to the Nobel Prize Committee . No more , alas .
I would bet that Mike spends his life in climate-controlled buildings, watching lots of mainstream TV. Probably drives around in a nice, climate-controlled vehicle, too, which he probably parks in his nice, climate-controlled garage.
What is the cause of the sharp drops/declines in that chart of the lower tropospheric temperature anomalies?
I understand that in physics the gain of energy is a slower process than the loss of energy, is that a similar cause for that kind of drop/decline.
Shouldn’t the troposphere be responding to only 3.141 major factors, the Sun, Earth, Space and the Moon?
My last question out side the carton is; If I took a measurement and got a pattern or a result where I didn’t want one what should I do?
I agree with Anthony that the Best project is political theatre. It is standard agit-prop procedure to open a new front organisation when the existing one has been discredited. The role of the Best project is to make pronouncements on the way, not to produce a report at the end. The longer that takes, the better for them. They hove only one researcher doing the actual work, so it will take a while. The Koch Bros. have been sold a pup.
I’m late reading this post but the statement in the L.A.Times article:
“All the physical indicators are consistent with a warming world. There is no doubt the trend of temperature is upwards since the early 20th century. And that trend is accelerating.”
Accelerating my arse, that is a bald-faced lie, it has budged little for the last 13 years as of today and they know it.
If they would have said “the world warmed in the 1920’s, 30’s & 40’s and also in the 1990’s but has been basically level ever since” then they would have been telling the whole truth. Look at any long-term temperature chart. Just more media distortion of the facts.
1DandyTroll says:
April 4, 2011 at 2:14 pm
@Dave Wendt says:
April 4, 2011 at 11:19 am
Very interesting. But who earns money on such policy?
Not being a resident of the People’s Republic of California I’m not that familiar with the potential beneficiaries of the diesel particulate regulations but given the rampant cronyism reported in numerous other activities of their state government I suspect there are some. Perhaps someone with more local knowledge will chime in. However in California preserving a justification for the continuing existence of their bureaucratic power seems to a sufficient excuse for many of the agencies promoting a constant crisis mentality. As one of the commenters in the video noted the rather dramatic improvement in California’s air quality over the last fifty years has left CARB in particular struggling for relevance going forward into the future. Most of the major dragon of air quality have already been slain.
I think it is likely that their treatment of this particular individual is meant more as an object lesson for others who in the future may contemplate challenging the bureaucracy. I spent the first 12 years of my education in Catholic schools. Having had several siblings who preceded me there, I entered having heard numerous stories of what the nuns were capable of if crossed and nearly the first thing I and my classmates noticed after taking our seats was the yardstick propped up in the corner. Indeed it would be a nearly ubiquitous presence in every classroom of the first 8 years of my education. In actuality I can hardly remember an instance of one of them being utilized for their dread purpose. They didn’t need to be. The legend was ingrained and a mere glance toward the corner by one of the nuns usually achieved the desired return to order. I suspect the sacrifice of this gentleman’s career is meant to fulfill a similar purpose for CARB and the State of California. He will be the ruler propped in the corner for anyone contemplating stepping out of line from enviro dogma.
Wen through some Gardening notes for my home garden and other things. Noted we
are 2 weeks behind last year. Not unusual for NE Oregon in a Nina year. Expecting
another green tomato summe outside the green house.
I’d go for a little 2F.warming right now heck 20f would be about right (65F)….
Dave Wendt: You’re probably right. Remember that IG inspector who was fired and whose very menal abilities were questioned merely for the ‘crime’ of questioning the activities on one of our First Lady’s associates. I haven’t heard of much IG activity these days that isn’t trivial.
See the graphs for Hadcrut since 1998 (flat) and GISS (upward slope):
http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/status-on-global-temperature-trends-216.php
The difference is significant and both cannot be right.
However we read here: “We see a global warming trend that is very similar to that previously reported by the other groups.” They mention: “NOAA, NASA and Britain’s Met Office”.
So what has happened ever since 1998 (or even 2002)? Has global warming stopped? Is it slowly increasing? Is it accelerating? Are temperatures cooling? I did not expect the satellite data to be overturned, however I do hope to get an accurate answer to what has happened globally since 1998.
The apparent “step increase” in recorded global temperatures in the beginning of the 1990s may have something to do with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, after which dozens of Siberian meteo stations stopped reporting data.
When you take Siberia out of the global picture, guess what happens…
AGW mullahs will never admit that all their hoopla is based on the Bolshevik Empire buying the farm. Mullahs make a lot of moolah.
Truth may make you free but doesn’t pay — and it may burn you at the stake.
Climates do not trend they cycle. If you assume it trends then, depending on the entry point, you will get completely the wrong idea and come to the wrong conclusions.
Mike says:
April 4, 2011 at 7:19 am
“The planet is warming.”
Which one? Please be more specific…
People in Scotland should vote for Lord Monckton, in the forthcoming Scottish Parliament Elections, where he is standing as a candidate in the Mid-Scotland & Fife Regional Constituency. See the video at The Fraudulent Climate Website (main page), and then click the links at that page to visit his Party Website and read the Manifesto.
Vote for Monckton on May 5th 2011
click the name “Axel” to visit The Fraudulents Climate of Hokum Science.
I thank you.
Ben Blankenship April 4, 2011 at 7:58 am,
This decade’s hot topic: nuclear contamination of the Pacific Ocean fisheries.
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2011/04/marine-life-contaminated.html
The radiation release is large but is probably only a significant factor in Japan. What will be a factor is food from the ocean. The food chain concentrates the radiation. OTOH maybe radioactive whales will convince the Japanese that whaling is unwise.
It will be interesting to see how the nuclear Greens handle this.
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2011/04/oceans-will-be-impacted.html
Let me just add that I hope the work being done on Bussard Fusion pans out.
Nuclear could not exist in the US if government was not backstopping it. No private company could afford to insure against a disaster that might cost $100 bn or more. I discuss that here:
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2011/04/owning-up.html
We have privatized the gains and socialized the losses. Some one (besides me and a few other “crazies”) should be asking questions.
And should you be interested: I’m a former Naval Nuke. If there was a reactor design that was good enough to get private insurance I’d back it. I haven’t seen it yet. The problem is the 2 year fuel load in a reactor. Among other things. That much available energy makes them dangerous devices. And that is not even counting fission product problems.
Side note to A: if you want me to write something for you just ask.
Richard Muller is an amusing guy!
There was a TV doco here in Oz a few days ago where he described regular mass extinctions on Earth caused by a companion star to our Sun, it being an unseen red dwarf or brown dwarf, that causes comets to deflect from the Oort cloud and come our way. Neither have been physically observed of course, but it’s good for academics to have vivid imaginations, even if his periodicity claim does not seem to match the palaeo-geological record.
Anthony, if you are going to take peoples graphs out of their original context, try to make sure you get the x-axis. We would not want anyone accusing WUWT of publishing sociologists graphs with a scale , would we?
http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html
You extracted one of a series of graphs as png , the lower one has the x axis for them all.
😉
We know have independent evidence from the temperature record that airports have been getting busier for the last 50 years but have now reached full capacity in many cases.
What this has to do with climate channge is anybody’s guess.