Click image for the story. h/t to WUWT reader “Eric”.
I’m always amazed at the lack of historical perspective some people have related to natural disasters. It’s doubly amazing when reporters who work in newspapers, who have huge archive resources at their disposal, don’t even bother to look. Here’s some excerpts from the story:
“There is certainly some literature that talks about the increased occurrence of volcanic eruptions and the removing of load from the crust by deglaciation,” said Martin Sharp, a glaciologist at the University of Alberta. “It changes the stress load in the crust and maybe it opens up routes for lava to come to the surface.
“It is conceivable that there would be some increase in earthquake activity during periods of rapid changes on the Earth’s crust.”
Other scientists, however, believe that tectonic movements similar to the one that caused the Japanese quake are too deep in the Earth to be affected by the pressure releases caused by glacier melt.
…
Some experts claim that jump can be explained by the increased number of seismograph stations — more than 8,000 now, up from 350 in 1931 — allowing scientists to pinpoint earthquakes that would otherwise have been missed.
But this does not explain the recent increase in major earthquakes, which are defined as above 6 on the Richter magnitude scale. Japan’s earthquake was a 9.
Scientists have been tracking these powerful quakes for well over a century and it’s unlikely that they have missed any during at least the last 60 years.
According to data from the U.S. Geological Survey there were 1,085 major earthquakes in the 1980s. This increased in the 1990s by about 50 per cent to 1,492 and to 1,611 from 2000 to 2009. Last year, and up to and including the Japanese quake, there were 247 major earthquakes.
There has been also a noticeable increase in the sort of extreme quakes that hit Japan. In the 1980s, there were four mega-quakes, six in the 1990s and 13 in the last decade. So far this decade we have had two. This increase, however, could be temporary.
======================================================
A couple of faults in the argument, from the NYT, 1879:
As many as 200,000 people died in the 1855 quake.
And again in 1896:
and also….1923
h/t to Steve Goddard, who has been doing a lot of historical research here: http://news.google.com/newspapers
Vuks .. any follow ups on this paper, “ULF energy transfer in the solar wind – magnetosphere- ionosphere – solid Earth system.”
R. Kessel, F. Freund, G. Duma 2006
European Geosciences Union 2006
http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU06/01705/EGU06-J-01705.pdf
Energy transfer is interesting in and of itself. On any planet or star..
vukcevic says:
March 17, 2011 at 1:22 am
No expertise in tectonics of the solar physics is essential to record and plot 3-4 values of data, readily available. Time will tell if data I am recording is of any relevance or not.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
Magnitude Average Annually
8+ 1
7 – 7.9 15
6 – 6.9 134
5 – 5.9 1319
4 – 4.9 13,000
There are many earthquakes every day greater than 4.5, so you can always find some that occur after any geomagnetic activity, hence your plots are of little value. BTW, the ‘NASA’ research you quote is concerned not with magnetic storms but with the regular diurnal variation Sq due to the effect of solar UV. Some knowledge of the subject is handy.
Carla
Number of earthquake plotted is all around the globe (m>=4.5), Japan happened after I started regular update (2nd March) prompted by the N. Zealand’s eq.
Tromso is within Arctic circle, for the global perspective, the data web page is good, but there are also one or two more general indices plotted.
At 4:31 AM on 17 March, Richard writes:
Then there’s George Carlin:
Are we going to discuss Aspergillus flavus, aflatoxin B1, and the increased risks of liver and breast cancer associated with the ingestion of peanuts and peanut butter?
From a pure public health perspective, more people in Japan – and all across the rest of the planet – will die as the result of psychological stress induced by the idiot illiterate hyperbole of the media root weevils than by malignant metaplasia induced by the release of ionizing radiation from these reactors.
And we’re not yet discussing the deaths which are, with probabilities approaching absolute certainty, being caused by the lack of clean water, safe foodstuffs, sanitation, and housing all across northern Japan.
Before and during World War II, American strategic planning took into consideration the fact that at most only about 20% of Japan’s land surface area is suitable for use in agriculture. Of industrial raw materials there is virtually nothing in the home islands. These facts figured acutely in planning the operations undertaken to starve the Empire into submission.
How much of Japanese agricultural land has, since the late 1930s, been occupied by industry and residential housing? How much of their penny-packet rice farming has been wiped out by the earthquake and the tsunami? How many of their farmers have been killed or injured or displaced?
The bloody fools out there hear “radiation” and they go bugnuts. The “journalists” understand that stupid people have eyeballs, and will tune in.
But the focus is not on what will with near certainty kill thousands of real human beings, and wholly upon the fantasies of what will almost certainly not kill or injure as many people as are involved in motor vehicle accidents in a single U.S. state on any given day.
If only there were some way to make sure that “journalists” can be prevented from reproducing….
@ur momisugly wayne,
No i am not trying to scare, i just wanted to share what i have been reding outside msm. This comet is lurked in mystery and black out on the msm.
I will get back to you this evening, after i finish my work, i have some links for you, but not via my mobile phone. Shame is, my boss blocked internet so i have to answer to you in this was.
Let me make this very clear for now: my pupose is not to scare but to inform myself and others. If amateur astronomers look for the comet, and find a brown dwarf with planets hoovering around it, with a much bigger telescope than the, in my eyes, phoney astronomer Leonid (funny) Elenin, than a bell starts to ring and i want to investigate this.
I posted my comment on this topic because of the circumstantial alignment of planets, sun and this ‘comet’ and the big earthquakes in Japan and Chili..
I’ll get back at this ok wayne?
Lets hope i am wrong..
I sent a link to a young researcher who works in a hot-bed of Liberalism (Canadian Style) She had this to say about the Calgary Herald Article…
Humans keep jumping up and down and farting and breathing so it makes the ice melt and then the tectonic plates heave-ho?
I expected better analysis from the conservative capital of Canada.
I think that sums it up…
vukcevic says:
March 16, 2011 at 10:00 am
Leif Svalgaard says: March 16, 2011 at 7:22 am
…………….
As a scientist you should know that one always can find an exception either in favour, against or non-conclusive, as far as some event is concerned.
I am not looking for a particular case of evidence for, against or neither, but considering a regular survey of all cases above certain intensity.
Our company uses (Conducts, designs, interprets) magnetic surveys. I only skimmed the papers provided by Leif and Vukcevic. The only comment I can reasonably make is that Vukcevic has a point that the science in the papers is not conclusive — one way or the other… If those surveys had been designed to say look for an ore body, a fault or a structure they would be considered defective. The data would be “interesting” but regarded as anecdotal. That some objects (but not all) under stress might provide a magnetic signature does not stretch my imagination in the least. So there could well be signatures for some events but not others. In one survey I noticed that the method for removing the diurnal drift signature was a a bit suspect — to be charitable.
It’s an interesting thought is all I can say. I have heard it raised many times over the years and I neither accept nor reject either position — same as Vukcevic. fwiw
Now, Vukcevic — label your graphs a little better so I know what the signals are and don’t have to guess… 😉
Carla says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
March 17, 2011 at 5:51 am
Vuks .. any follow ups on this paper, “ULF energy transfer in the solar wind – magnetosphere- ionosphere – solid Earth system.”
R. Kessel, F. Freund, G. Duma 2006
European Geosciences Union 2006
http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU06/01705/EGU06-J-01705.pdf
Energy transfer is interesting in and of itself. On any planet or star..
~
Looks like studies of this kind are ongoing for other reasons in the geophysical world.
“””Generation of ULF geomagnetic pulsations during early stage of earthquake preparation “””
V.M. Sorokina, , and O.A. Pokhotelovb
a Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN), Russian Academy of Sciences, 142190 Troitsk, Moscow Region, Russian Federation
b Institute of Physics of the Earth (IFZ), Russian Academy of Sciences, 123995 Moscow, 10 B. Gruzinskaya, Russian Federation
Received 26 November 2009; revised 17 March 2010; accepted 24 March 2010. Available online 27 March 2010.
“””Correlation of Solar Activities with the Telluric Currents Level in the Northern Region of Malaysia
Issue Date: 7 July 2010
Mazlina M. Razelan,a N. Masdiana Md Said,a A. H. A. Aziz,a H. Y. Chong,a and M. Nawawib
aAstronomy & Atmospheric Science Research Unit, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 P.Pinang
bSchool Of Physics, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 P.Pinang
The relation between solar activities and the geomagnetic field induced currents (GIC) have been well studied in the auroral region and it usually occurs most frequently at high latitudes. However, during major geomagnetic storms, the auroral zone can extend substantially towards lower latitudes. Disturbance caused by solar activities can disrupt power grids and also increase the corrosion rate of buried natural gas pipelines. GIC are driven by the geomagnetic field induced by a geomagnetic disturbance. In this paper, we investigated the correlation between solar activities using the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and geomagnetic disturbance storm time (DST) index data with the telluric currents (also referred to as geomagnetic induced currents GIC) level through the disturbance pattern of geomagnetic field. The research areas are from Lunas in Kedah to Perlis. The pattern of geomagnetic field disturbance had been identified and analyzed to investigate the harmful effect of geomagnetic storms towards the performance of complex power grid in Malaysia. ©2010 American Institute of Physics “””
http://scitation.aip.org/getabs/servlet/GetabsServlet?prog=normal&id=APCPCS001250000001000464000001&idtype=cvips&gifs=yes&ref=no
WillR says: March 17, 2011 at 6:59 am
………….
If there is an effect than it is more likely to be the energy released from induced currents rather than the magnetic signature of the lithosphere.
Quote: ‘Scientists have been tracking and studying solar substorms for more than a century, yet these phenomena remained mostly unknown until THEMIS went into action.
Even more impressive was the substorm’s power. Angelopoulos estimates the total energy of the two-hour event at five hundred thousand billion (5 x 1014) Joules. That’s approximately equivalent to the energy of a magnitude 5.5 earthquake.’
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2007/11dec_themis/
Bear in mind that geomagnetic storm 10-11 March lasted nearly 24 hours.
See also: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GD.gif
It is likely that in the electrical terms the tectonic fault is also the weakest point.
On the graph http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm
there are number of data plotted , which I am testing at the moment, and I will eventually (perhaps after couple of months) scale down to one or two that happen to be most relevant.
vukcevic says:
March 17, 2011 at 7:38 am
Quote: ‘Scientists have been tracking and studying solar substorms for more than a century, yet these phenomena remained mostly unknown until THEMIS went into action.
Even more impressive was the substorm’s power. Angelopoulos estimates the total energy of the two-hour event at five hundred thousand billion (5 x 1014) Joules. That’s approximately equivalent to the energy of a magnitude 5.5 earthquake.’
This was not ‘mostly unknown’. On page 33 of my old 1973 paper http://www.leif.org/research/Geomagnetic-Response-to-Solar-Wind.pdf I estimated the substorm energy to be 5×10^14 Joules [or a 6.6 Richter earthquake].
But that energy is in the high atmosphere and spread over a large area. There is no evidence of any effect on triggering earthquakes.
Here in the land of arches one falls down now and then. Since they are tens and hundreds of thousands of years old, if not millions, it behooves us to explain the timing of their collapse. Of course the cause is erosion, but it’s slow, and you expect some trigger other than erosion to determine precisely when the structure comes down. Erosion is higher in colder, wetter climate conditions, but we learn of the arches tumbling on hot summer days during this long interstadial of relatively slow erosion. Wall Arch fell on a hot day after a rainy day. Temperature stress, added to tidal stress, might have contributed, but the previous rainy day seems to have been more anamolous, suggesting, maybe, a greater temp differential due to a wet underbelly?? At any rate, GW might be involved, maybe not AGW. Ice age erosion sets the arches up to collapse during interstadials.
old44 says:
March 15, 2011 at 10:42 pm
That’ll teach you not to eat crayons! 😉
DaveE.
Leif Svalgaard says: March 17, 2011 at 7:59 am
………….
Except you conveniently ignored electric current induction effect etc; known to exist just as long. But then, it appears you would do anything to obstruct any progress in finding even a smallest forewarning indicator, which is so badly needed; and even if it worked once, even if it saved one life it is worth the effort.
If you are not keen, or even willing to help then step aside and take your bellyache to your erstwhile colleagues.
vukcevic says:
March 17, 2011 at 10:45 am
But then, it appears you would do anything to obstruct any progress in finding even a smallest forewarning indicator, which is so badly needed; and even if it worked once, even if it saved one life it is worth the effort.
This has been researched many times and no effect has been found. Giving false hope is worse than no hope. But to show you the result of a proper analysis, the storms you were looking at were at the front of a solar sector [where such storms are often found], so one could make a superposed epoch analysis [lining up data on the boundary] for all about 2000 boundaries observed since 1926 of the number of strong earthquakes per day [from the ‘centennial list’ at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/data/centennial.php ].
Also, one could make a superposed epoch analysis for all geomagnetic storms. The result results are here: http://www.leif.org/research/Earthquake-Activity.png
As you can see there is no effect for either case. This is what all such proper analyses have always shown, based on thousands of cases.
Leif Svalgaard says:
March 17, 2011 at 11:46 am
the storms you were looking at were at the front of a solar sector [where such storms are often found], so one could make a superposed epoch analysis [lining up data on the boundary]
The sector boundaries organize the solar wind. Below are plots of superposed epochs of several solar wind properties around sector boundaries. Note the large compressional density spike right at the boundary. That shows the shock wave that is hitting the Earth:
http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Wind-Sector-Boundaries.png
As you could see from the previous comment. There is no increase of earthquakes related to this, nor to geomagnetic storms in general.
I am doing a totally different analysis, based on more than what Dr. Svalgaard’s estimates are based on the solar magnetic boundaries.
Our old friend ‘tallbloke’ has realised that the conversation here is being drowned by the Dr. Svalgaard’s persistent negativity and decided to open a:
thread on his blog .
Anyone wishes to engage in a sensible discussion is welcomed, whatever the opinion on the matter is.
vukcevic says:
March 17, 2011 at 12:37 pm
I am doing a totally different analysis, based on more than what Dr. Svalgaard’s estimates are based on the solar magnetic boundaries.
I made an analysis specifically of geomagnetic storms as well which shows no effect. You have not even described your ‘analysis’. All geomagnetic storms during 1900-1993, a total of 2613 storms, were included and no earthquakes more than the average number happened within a 100-day window of the storm, and in particular not on the day or the day after the storm. This is what all valid analyses of this have always shown. No effect, not even a tiny one.
vukcevic says:
March 16, 2011 at 2:08 pm
..However if conditions for an earthquake are ‘ripe’, then solar storm could be a trigger (not the cause) for it, and bring it forward for few hours or days.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm
Let me explain in simple terms what that means:
If Japanese earthquake was ‘ripe’ for occurring, i.e. geological fault has gone critical, it may have occurred instead of the last Friday on Sunday or yesterday. There was a large solar flare in mid week, geomagnetic disturbance occurred some hours later, late Thursday evening-Friday morning ( I recorded it here http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Japan.gif ). A small trigger was enough to bring whole thing down just few hours or days earlier then it would happen otherwise. So if during one solar cycle there is x of eqs, this is not going to make any noticeable difference to total number or strength.
So of what use is this?
Well, there were few pre-shocks, we were not to know that a major quake will follow, but there was a possibility. Since we knew that there was a strong geomagnetic storm going on ( I actually posted this on WUWT some 8 hours prior to the quake:
vukcevic says:
March 10, 2011 at 12:02 pm
~
I went looking for regional magnetometers. Two Russian magnetometers just north on the same pacific ridge one off chart other disturbed. Further down ridge chain in Japan two of theirs go offline others disturbed. Don’t get a flat tire on me now here there ..could that been some ground level current travelling down from auroral zone field line, on the ridge?
Here’s the magnetometer plots for the n/s Pacific ridge Japan region on 3.11.2011.
http://kogma.nict.go.jp/cgi-bin/geomag-viewer?typePlot=Each+station&function=Start+time+%26+day&startTime=2011031000&numberHour=48&stationSTC=on&stationPTK=on&stationMMB=on&stationKAK=on&stationOKI=on&stationPKT=on&stationYAP=on&stationSLZ=on&scaleXhigh=&scaleXlow=&scaleYhigh=&scaleYlow=&scaleDhigh=&scaleDlow=&scaleZhigh=&scaleZlow=&submit=ViewImage
Magnetometer location and observatory code.
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&u=http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/sept/swgparts/gmo/geomag.html&ei=xF6CTde-A8q80QGA96DGCA&sa=X&oi=translate&ct=result&resnum=9&ved=0CFwQ7gEwCA&prev=/search%3Fq%3DSTC%2BNICT%2Bmagnetometer%26hl%3Den%26rls%3Dcom.microsoft:en-us%26prmd%3Divns
Geomagnetic Field Data Plot
http://kogma.nict.go.jp/cgi-bin/geomag-interface
Hey Vuks .. this sounds just like what you were saying up there somewhere ..
“””Modelling the impact of telluric currents on earthquake
activity
G. Duma
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Department of Geophysics, Vienna,
Austria (gerald.duma@zamg.ac.at / Phone: +43-1-36026-2503)
Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, 01730, 2006
SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU06-A-01730
© European Geosciences Union 2006
In several studies performed in recent years (e.g. Duma, Ruzhin, 2003; Duma, 2005;
Lipovics, 2005; Duma, Freund, Kessel, 2006) it turned out that the induced electric
currents in the Earth’s lithosphere play an important role in earthquake activity: so
called Lorentz forces and mechanic torques are generated, which act on the lithosphere
and add stress to an active seismic rupture zone. Many examples of regional
earthquake activity indicate this very close relation between the variations of the ‘telluric’
currents, which can easily be monitored by geomagnetic observatories, and the
temporal variations of seismic activity. This applies to the earthquake frequency with
respect to the time of day, in the seasonal range as well as in the long term (years,
decades). Since such an interaction is rather astonishing and has rarely been considered
in scientific studies, there is a strong need of a sound interpretation of this
mechanism, the ‘Magneto-Seismic Effect MSE’. The presentation deals with details
of the electromagnetic model, the involved energy, and the model’s capability to fit the
observed seismic performance of several strong earthquake regions in the three time
domains: diurnal, seasonal, long term. This is demonstrated for seismoactive regions
in Asia (Japan, Taiwan, China, Sumatra), in the USA (California) and in Europe (Italy,
Austria, Greece), even for earthquake activity with event magnitudes M greater 6. The
results confirm the validity of the model and the important role of this geodynamic
and electromagnetic process on strong earthquake activity, i.e. acting as a powerful
trigger mechanism. Since the process is a systematic one, this makes possible predictions
of seismic activity which deserve special attention for improved earthquake
hazard assessments, earthquake awareness and preventive measures.”””
http://meetings.copernicus.org/www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU06/01730/EGU06-J-01730.pdf
Leif, the last couple of sentences in y last post, seem to be what Vuks was trying to say. Lots of material to sort thru. I’d rather be reloading the interstellar catapult.. beware..
Carla says:
March 17, 2011 at 1:34 pm
Leif, the last couple of sentences in y last post, seem to be what Vuks was trying to say.
You mean:
Leif Svalgaard says:
March 17, 2011 at 12:55 pm
“All geomagnetic storms during 1900-1993, a total of 2613 storms, were included and no earthquakes more than the average number happened within a 100-day window of the storm, and in particular not on the day or the day after the storm. This is what all valid analyses of this have always shown. No effect, not even a tiny one.”
is what Vuk was trying yo say?
I think my analysis is conclusive. There is no hint of any increase in earthquake activity following geomagnetic storms, so ‘ripe’ or not, the storm do not trigger anything, because if they did, there would be a larger number of earthquakes on the day of the storm [or the next day], and there isn’t.
Carla says:
March 17, 2011 at 1:25 pm
………….
Thanks Carla.
Coincidence or not it looks very interesting, and may be indicative of a possible ‘ triger’ cause.
vukcevic says:
March 17, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Coincidence or not it looks very interesting, and may be indicative of a possible ‘ trigger’ cause.
Coincidences are not interesting.
My analysis http://www.leif.org/research/Earthquake-Activity.png is conclusive. There is no hint of any increase in earthquake activity following geomagnetic storms, so ‘ripe’ or not, the storms do not trigger anything, because if they did, there would be a larger number of earthquakes on the day of the storm [or the next day], and there isn’t. This is what all valid analyses of this have always shown. No effect, not even a tiny one.
Leif Svalgaard says:
March 17, 2011 at 7:59 am
This was not ‘mostly unknown’. On page 33 of my old 1973 paper http://www.leif.org/research/Geomagnetic-Response-to-Solar-Wind.pdf I estimated the substorm energy to be 5×10^14 Joules [or a 6.6 Richter earthquake].
~
argggggggggh, another we already knew this. But..that’s all cool Leif, Happy Friday. I’ll get over it. Estimated at 6.6 on the Richter though.. pretty impressive.
Now where did I put that catapult..
What is your current understanding of:
Magnetotellurics or tellurics
And their role in producing surface fields and atmospheric interactions.
Leif Svalgaard says:
March 17, 2011 at 3:01 pm
No effect, not even a tiny one.
~
We can’t say that Leif. Solar effect is part of the “WHOLE” ongoing process.
“””Solar energy and lightning cause natural variations in the earth’s magnetic field, inducing electric currents (known as telluric currents) under the Earth’s surface.”””
From Wiki
“””Magnetotellurics
Magnetotellurics (MT) is an electromagnetic geophysical method of imaging the earth’s subsurface by measuring natural variations of electrical and magnetic fields at the Earth’s surface. Investigation depth ranges from 300m by recording higher frequencies down to 10,000m or more with long-period soundings. Developed in Russia and France during the 1950s, MT is now an international academic discipline and is used in exploration surveys around the world.
..Energy sources
Solar energy and lightning cause natural variations in the earth’s magnetic field, inducing electric currents (known as telluric currents) under the Earth’s surface. Simultaneous measurements of orthogonal components of the electric and magnetic fields are recorded, with the results calculated as the impedance tensor.[35] A subsurface resistivity model is then created using this tensor.[36]
Different rocks, sediments and geological structures have a wide range of different electrical conductivities. Measuring electrical resistivity allows different materials and structures to be distinguished from one another and can improve knowledge of tectonic processes and geologic structures.
The Earth’s naturally varying electric and magnetic fields are measured over a wide range of magnetotelluric frequencies from 10,000 Hz to 0.0001 Hz (10,000s). These fields are due to electric currents flowing in the Earth and the magnetic fields that induce these currents. The magnetic fields are produced mainly by the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. In addition, worldwide thunderstorm activity causes magnetic fields at frequencies above 1 Hz. Combined, these natural phenomena create strong MT source signals over the entire frequency spectrum.
The ratio of the electric field to magnetic field provides simple information about subsurface conductivity. Because the skin effect phenomenon affects the electromagnetic fields, the ratio at higher frequency ranges gives information on the shallow Earth, whereas deeper information is provided by the low-frequency range. The ratio is usually represented as both apparent resistivity as a function of frequency and phase as a function of frequency…”””
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetotellurics#Energy_sources
You haven’t seen my catapult have you?
Carla says:
March 18, 2011 at 6:15 am
Magnetotellurics or tellurics
And their role in producing surface fields and atmospheric interactions.
They produce fields at the surface of a magnitude of the order of 1/1000 to 1/10,000 of the normal fields and have no atmospheric interactions.