Guest post by Joe Bastardi
Well Anthony, here it is, just for the great folks that go to your
wonderful site ( I have made no secret of my love it, so I guess I am
being redundant).
On March 11th, Weatherbell Analytics announced that Joe D’Aleo and I would be working together to develop the premier long range weather forecasting center in the world. When I looked at what was coming together, I decided this is where my next step in doing what I was made to do had to be.
FIrst of all, in Joe D’Aleo, I have a colleague that needs no introduction to the major meteorology people of the world. Joe and I have similar methods of arriving at forecasts, and understand big picture to small focus forecasting ideas.. where one must be able to step back and understand the major players on the field to be able to correctly identify and forecast the events that carry so much wait in any given forecast. So many times, I saw we had an independent consensus. In other words we arrived at the same conclusion, without consulting with each other, that it became apparent that we were on the same wavelength. However the differences we have will be used to challenge each other to come up with the right final conclusion. The fact that we have similar ideas on the overall trend in the global temperature, and for the same basic physical reasons, which trump the idea that a trace gas needed for life on the planet can cause so much variation, gives us an up on those that simply want to bet its going to be warm. Knowing where we were, but where we are going is crucial to having the correct backdrop in a forecast.
The owner and founder of the company, Michael Barak is a Cornell engineering graduate who loves the weather and will give us the chance to use our skills in many more ways than we have done so far . A good long range forecast can supply many needs. The vision and boldness of Michael gives us a major up. He is determined to make sure Joe and I can fight in all the arenas available, so the success of the company will rely on the success of the forecasts, being used the right way.
WeatherBell has given me a system where I can blog to my hearts content with all the graphics I want, and our video setup is one where my new video vigilantes, the atmospheric avenger and the WeatherBell Raging WeatherBull will appear several times a day.. and at night.
Quite frankly, for me, this set up is manna from heaven.
In short, its a long road to be part of a start up and try to reach the top. But Joe and I live for the weather, we both understand it is what we were made to do, and we are here to do it. I have already said we are the LaMotta and Marciano of weather, men whose names end in a vowel, and wont throw in the towel. And we are here with WeatherBell with one mission.. to climb to the top.
Interesting company name and appropriate for both Joe and I, because we will answer the WeatherBell in every round.
As always, ciao for now!
FIrst of all, in Joe D’Aleo, I have a colleague that needs no introduction to the major meteorology people of the world. Joe and I have similar methods of arriving at forecasts, and understand big picture to small focus forecasting ideas.. where one must be able to step back and understand the major players on the field to be able to correctly identify and forecast the events that carry so much wait in any given forecast. So many times, I saw we had an independent consensus. In other words we arrived at the same conclusion, without consulting with each other, that it became apparent that we were on the same wavelength. However the differences we have will be used to challenge each other to come up with the right final conclusion. The fact that we have similar ideas on the overall trend in the global temperature, and for the same basic physical reasons, which trump the idea that a trace gas needed for life on the planet can cause so much variation, gives us an up on those that simply want to bet its going to be warm. Knowing where we were, but where we are going is crucial to having the correct backdrop in a forecast.
The owner and founder of the company, Michael Barak is a Cornell engineering graduate who loves the weather and will give us the chance to use our skills in many more ways than we have done so far . A good long range forecast can supply many needs. The vision and boldness of Michael gives us a major up. He is determined to make sure Joe and I can fight in all the arenas available, so the success of the company will rely on the success of the forecasts, being used the right way.
WeatherBell has given me a system where I can blog to my hearts content with all the graphics I want, and our video setup is one where my new video vigilantes, the atmospheric avenger and the WeatherBell Raging WeatherBull will appear several times a day.. and at night.
Quite frankly, for me, this set up is manna from heaven.
In short, its a long road to be part of a start up and try to reach the top. But Joe and I live for the weather, we both understand it is what we were made to do, and we are here to do it. I have already said we are the LaMotta and Marciano of weather, men whose names end in a vowel, and wont throw in the towel. And we are here with WeatherBell with one mission.. to climb to the top.
Interesting company name and appropriate for both Joe and I, because we will answer the WeatherBell in every round.
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Glad to see Joe B. landed somewhere where he can continue to use his talents for all of our benefit. As a “warmist” I disagree with Joe on this key issue, but still respect his considerable knowledge of weather. Following the ups and downs of the Arctic Sea ice is a favorite pastime of mine and it is here that the differences between Joe’s perspective and mine really come to light. He see the current long-term decline in Arctic sea ice extent as being part of a natural cycle, and has said quite plainly that he expects it to begin to rebound over the next few years and decades. I see the decline in Arctic sea ice as a result of the cumulative effect of the 40% rise in CO2 over the past few hundred years caused by human industrialization and fossil fuel burning. Why is the difference in perspective between Joe and I important in terms of weather forecasting? There are many effects (i.e. severe winters in the N. Hemisphere etc.) which a decline in Arctic sea ice could impact due to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns brought about by more heat being released from open Arctic waters in the fall and winter. As of yet, it seems Joe B. isn’t looking at this, and why should he, if he thinks the Arctic sea ice is set to rebound anyway?
Regardless of our differences, I shall continue to follow Joe B. on his new site and wish him and his new venture the best of luck!
Pamela, I understand what you wrote but keep in mind this is a start up company with only 2 employees under their belt. They cant afford editors and proofreaders at this stage. What we hope to get is uncensored and “raw” commentary from Joe Bastardi. I suspect that is part of the thrill Joe describes, being able to post whatever he wants with maps/graphs and charts, all without worry that an editor will slash and cut his message to us.
Let’s hope that all such endeavors are headed by individuals willing to improve their product. I gave constructive criticism only with that in mind. Cutting and slashing a message is one thing and comes with the risk of cutting content and context. Making the full content and context cleaner and easier to read is another thing entirely.
Anything will be an improvement over the horrible weather forecasting in the Midwest this winter, where daytime highs and lows were frequently off by as much as 10 or 12 degrees and at least 2 snowstorms missed by close to a foot.
JB & JD’ at the same well supported WeatherBell site?! This made my day and should prove fantastically rewarding for the duration – and may we all benefit by this for a long extended period. All the best,
PMc
I wish all the folks who try the weather consulting business well. I can only speak from my experiences in Canada as a weather consultant, but it is extremely difficult to make any sort of a decent wage as a consultant in Canada. Most consulting companies are run by retired forecasters and are one or two person operations that are more for hobby purposes than a real business. I do part time consulting with a firm that, luckily, has a long term government contract in a highly specialized weather sector that the government is willing to pay a good price for. But this is not the norm. There is a lot of interest in getting forecast products, but when you come to talk price the interest generally vanishes. People just do not want to pay for a forecast. I believe they figure they can get the forecast for free on the internet so why pay. Even if you point out the value added that you can do, and save them a substantial amount of money, they are still not interested. Maybe I am just not a good enough salesman.
I would be interested to hear from others in the weather consulting business in other countries to see if they experience the same problems.
I agree with Pamela that Piers is too eccentric. His arguments boil down to it’s all solar plus an unfortunate amount of vitriol.
This from Piers’ website: Piers says “The massive Japan Earthquake and Tsunami were triggered by massive events on the Sun and there are more to come in the next two years” It is quite doubtful that plate movements are affected by sun in any way.
—let us have your new web site address, Joe, and I do hope that you will once more have a section devoted to British and Northern European weather as I miss your forecasts.
Eric (skeptic) says:
March 13, 2011 at 11:02 am
I wouldn’t be too sure about that, Eric. As for right now, there are few who will ascribe any cause mechanism to vulcanism and tectonics.
We are lucky to have one. What Piers is saying strikes a particular chord with those who have first-hand experience with supporting rock underground.
Eric, the volcanoes are 84% clustered around the near bottom of solar cycle rampdown and the ramp up. The largest earthquakes correlate nearer 100%.
Ed, from the list here in order http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/10_largest_world.php
1-no, 2-yes, 3-not quite, 4-yes, 5-yes, 6-no, 7-yes, 8-barely, 9-not quite, 10-barely, 11-yes, 12-no, 13-yes, 14-yes, 15-yes
Volcanoes are harder to classify since their explosive power is dependent on local factors. But 1991’s pinatubo is a no, 1912 katmai is yes, 1883 krakatoa is no, 1815 tambora is yes. Maybe you mean volcanic or earthquake activity in general? I don’t have numbers for that.
Joe: are you going to do anything with the Pacific Northwest in your new venue?
Hey Joe,
As you can see we all love what you do. Good luck to Joe’s X2. We all will be reading and watching you on weatherbell!
God bless,
Mike, Long Island, NY
Joe Prins – Canada and Edmonton is included – click on the silly temps to get the real ones.
R. Gates says:
March 13, 2011 at 9:56 am
“Why is the difference in perspective between Joe and I important in terms of weather forecasting?”
==================================
Mr. Bastardi’s perspective is important because he is an actual scientist and meteorologist….and a precociously good one at that.
You are none of the above.
Not sure where you can self-aggrandize your “perspective” as being in the same league.
But….as always….and for the thousandth time….thanks for the laugh.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Joe B:
No-one NO-ONE is more dedicated than you are when it comes to being out there “for the people”. You’re original, fresh, humorous, accurate, and a whole other host of great adjectives can apply.
I’ve sent you an e-mail via the WeatherBell site. I can’t tell you how much I want you to succeed and build WeatherBell into the premiums site that I know it will become!!
Cheers to you!!!
Joe, you’re right: I didn’t pick up that you’ll be a new unit at WeatherBell. So my apologies.
It remains a fact though that WeatherBell does do detailed forecasts of 4 or 5 days for small towns, even by postcode (US: zipcode). Today it is again forecasting light rain for a week here, while the BBC/Met Office is dry and above average temps.
Something for you to discuss with your colleagues?
Anyway, all the best in your new venture: I hope we haven’t seen the last of you on WUWT