Let’s hope he does get out of the wrong side of the bed.
The current sunspot count and 10.7 cm radio flux have increased in the latest NOAA SWPC graphs, shown below. but curiously, the Ap magnetic index remains low.
Current solar status:
Geomagnetic conditions:
From Spaceweather.com : X-FLARE: March 9th ended with a powerful solar flare. Earth-orbiting satellites detected an X1.5-class explosion from behemoth sunspot 1166 around 2323 UT. A movie from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a bright flash of UV radiation plus some material being hurled away from the blast site:
Movie formats: 4 MB gif, 1.2 MB iPad, 0.3 MB iPhone
A first look at coronagraph images from NASA’s STEREO-B spacecraft suggests that the explosion did propel a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. This conclusion is preliminary, however, so check back later for updates.
After four years without any X-flares, the sun has produced two of the powerful blasts in less than one month: Feb. 15th and March 9th. This continues the recent trend of increasing solar activity, and shows that Solar Cycle 24 is heating up. NOAA forecasters estimate a 5% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours.
Here’s sunspot group 1166 visible in this SDO image:
Here’s the X-ray flux, the flare was just barely and x-class:
Here’s the latest monthly data from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC):
Note that the Ap Index did not show similar gains.
As always, complete solar coverage at WUWT’s solar reference page
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Baa Humbug says:
March 10, 2011 at 7:26 am
It will also be interesting to see how extreme weather events develop this month. More cyclones and earthquakes anyone?
Please don’t suggest that. Where I am we have had about 10 tremors in the last 2 days, the first for some years. They are small <3 Richter, but the very shallow depth of 2Km is a bit worrying especially as they are centred at <5Km distance.
Looking back, do we see the monthly averaged SSN curves looking smooth like a Hathaway centerline? Up and down, up and down. Take your dramamine.
Feb and March has seen Sol begin a new level of activity that is producing many SC24 records. The L&P effect is no where to be found with most regions recording high contrast values as expected when approaching cycle max. SC24 is still on track to follow SC5 with SC25 expected to follow SC6, the northern hemisphere is edging toward reversal but when looking at the smoothed values there is some way to go. The southern hemisphere continues to show overall reluctance to fire up and the wimpy return from 1158 in the south (last months record breaking region) may be a warning sign that the south might struggle to perform a polarity reversal.
Geoff says:
March 10, 2011 at 12:15 pm
what is most interesting is that that Sun’s magnetic field, the AP index, is not budging, still staying at 5 or less
Geoff Sharp says:
March 10, 2011 at 1:42 pm
The L&P effect is nowhere to be found
The L&P effect is a weakening of the magnetic field….
warning sign that the south might struggle to perform a polarity reversal.
The southern polar fields have weakened a lot and is thus well on its way to a reversal.
Leif Svalgaard says: March 10, 2011 at 2:14 pm
“warning sign that the south might struggle to perform a polarity reversal.”
The southern polar fields have weakened a lot and is thus well on its way to a reversal.
Yes, this seems apparent from looking at the plots:
http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Polar-Fields-1966-now.png
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
which can both be found towards the bottom of WUWT’s increasingly robust Solar Reference Page:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/solar/
Sun’s polar fields in the early 1960s were HIGH
In the paper:
MODELING THE SUN’S MAGNETIC FIELD AND IRRADIANCE SINCE 1713
Y.-M. Wang, J. L. Lean, and N. R. Sheeley, Jr.
Code 7670, E. O. Hulburt Center for Space Research, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375-5352;
The Astrophysical Journal, 625:522–538, 2005 May 20
# 2005. Copyright is not claimed for this article. Printed in U.S.A.
http://ihy2007.org/WHI/WHIDMAW_POSTERS/WHIVSWSM/MM_TSI_Wang_ApJ_2005.pdf
page 525 (5/17)
there is a reconstruction of the Sun’s polar fields.
I have copied and pasted an inset over the graph of my formula of polar field.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2a.htm
It can be clearly seen that polar field in the early 1960’s was not low as Dr. Svalgaard maintains. (formula can be seen clearly here: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm)
This should once for all resolve our perennial disagreement on the matter. I shall only consider Dr. Svalgaards pronouncements on this mater only if he can produce an alternative graphic representation of polar fields, supporting his view, from a source of an equal authority as the above.
Nice post Anthony.
As a side note, NASA just recently released a article entitled:
Researchers Crack the Mystery of the Missing Sunspots
Probably the only reason I bring this up is that with all the talk about the Sun starting to wake up, I think it’s just as important to inform the rest of us that most scientists predicted poorly on solar cycle 24. Except for one man, Dibyendu Nandi.
If you’re out there Nandi and listening, please chime in on this current issue here at WUWT.
I think we would all welcome your input here.
Where does Nandi go from here?
Just The Facts says:
March 10, 2011 at 2:45 pm
The southern polar fields have weakened a lot and is thus well on its way to a reversal.
——————
Yes, this seems apparent from looking at the plots:
Not so apparent if you look at the individual hemisphere graphs.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/south.gif
Leif Svalgaard says:
March 10, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Leif: On March 7th at around 20:00 UT, there was recorded a surge in F10.7 exceeding 900 units for Penticon and well over 300 for Nobeyama. Can we tell where the surge originated? I don’t recall seeing anything in the data from previous years being that high, but memory is a tricky thing.
Thanks.
vukcevic says:
March 10, 2011 at 3:55 pm
Sun’s polar fields in the early 1960s were HIGH
there is a reconstruction of the Sun’s polar fields.
I’m talking about the measurements we have.
They are talking about a simulated field based on several assumptions, e.g. “Polar field reversals are maintained by varying the meridional flow speed between 11 and
20 m s1, with the poleward-directed surface flow being slower during low-amplitude cycles”
from a source of an equal authority as the above.
I am the authority on polar fields, if you need one.
Geoff Sharp says:
March 10, 2011 at 5:01 pm
Not so apparent if you look at the individual hemisphere graphs.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/south.gif
Amazing how prejudice makes blind. It is clear from your graph that the last wiggle is only half the size of the several ones before that. Amazing.
rbateman says:
March 10, 2011 at 5:07 pm
Leif: On March 7th at around 20:00 UT, there was recorded a surge in F10.7 exceeding 900 units for Penticon and well over 300 for Nobeyama.
If you observe during or shortly after a large flare you often get a very large spike in the F10.7 flux. Previously, the spikes were removed manually, but due to ever-present lack of manpower, the data is raw [not filtered through a person] and the spikes are not removed. They should be in order that the record be compatible with the historical record. NOAA [and I] have removed the spike from our respective data bases.
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html sez X-CLASS FLARE! (complete wit the surprise sign.
I’ve learned enough to read the graphs under the widgets.
Geoff Sharp says: March 10, 2011 at 5:01 pm
Not so apparent if you look at the individual hemisphere graphs.
But there are two poles…
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/north.gif
You don’t see any apparent signs of a forthcoming polar field reversal in the chart above?
Just The Facts says:
March 10, 2011 at 7:15 pm
You don’t see any apparent signs of a forthcoming polar field reversal in the chart above?
The north is moving more rapidly than the south. The south will be the one to watch near cycle max, we may learn something new. If one pole fails to flip, it’s a new ball game.
Just The Facts says:
March 10, 2011 at 7:15 pm
But there are two poles…
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/north.gif
You don’t see any apparent signs of a forthcoming polar field reversal in the chart above?
Geoff: “Not so apparent if you look at the individual hemisphere graphs.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/south.gif”
Amazing how prejudice makes blind. It is clear from your graph that the last wiggle is only half the size of the several ones before that. Amazing.
Geoff Sharp says:
March 10, 2011 at 7:38 pm
The south will be the one to watch near cycle max, we may learn something new. If one pole fails to flip, it’s a new ball game.
The south has already lost half of its strength [as shown so clearly in the link you provided]. There is no reason to believe it will not continue.
Edit note for Post:
just barely and x-class: an x-class
Leif
Per a conversation from a while ago;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/02/06/earthly-cloud-similarities-seen-solar-cmes/#comment-592638
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/02/06/earthly-cloud-similarities-seen-solar-cmes/#comment-592657
I am thinking that North and South versions might be valuable additions to the page, as they are somewhat obscured in the combined chart. Given the current conversation, would you reconsider your prior position?
Just The Facts says:
March 10, 2011 at 8:11 pm
Given the current conversation, would you reconsider your prior position?
What would that be?
I am thinking that North and South versions might be valuable additions to the page,
For the recent data, this page http://www.leif.org/research/WSO-Polar-Fields-since-2003.png also separates by hemisphere.
Well maybe it is time for the lazy so and so to get out of bed.
If of course these quick kicks are evidence it is or merely reflexive of a deeper slumber.
Frankly I do not want to freeze to death to prove AGW wrong: I would rather old Sol woke up and warmed us all up again.
Kindest Regards
Leif Svalgaard says: March 10, 2011 at 8:24 pm
What would that be?
Excluding these graphs;
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/north.gif
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/south.gif
from the WUWT Solar Reference Pages. I can either add them as graphics, or as links under the combined WSO graphic.
For the recent data, this page http://www.leif.org/research/WSO-Polar-Fields-since-2003.png also separates by hemisphere.
Added, thanks.
Latest geomagnetic storm is still going on 23 hours after it started.
Japan earthquake just a coincidence?
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm
Latest polar field
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC6.htm
Leif,
I don’t understand why the latest monthly data graph from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) (ISES Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression – updated 2011 March 9) is still showing the prediction of a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 90 for the next sunspot cycle maximum .
See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/02/09/nasa-revises-the-sunspot-prediction-down-again/
I thought that David Hathaway had made a revision with a predicted maximum of about 58? Why is the latest graph not adapted?
Is S903 (N11E85) reversed its polarity?
Just The Facts says:
March 10, 2011 at 9:54 pm
I can either add them as graphics, or as links under the combined WSO graphic.
Links would be fine.
Rik Gheysens says:
March 11, 2011 at 12:43 am
is still showing the prediction of a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 90 for the next sunspot cycle maximum .[…] I thought that David Hathaway had made a revision with a predicted maximum of about 58? Why is the latest graph not adapted?
Because Hathaway’s prediction is his own, private one. Not ‘official’ NASA or NOAA.
Peter_pan says:
March 11, 2011 at 3:50 am
Is S903 (N11E85) reversed its polarity?
Looks normal to me.